Two Charts Prove Obamacare Is Not "Stabilizing" In 2018

Tyler Durden's picture

As the Obamacare repeal and replace effort raged on in Congress over the past six months, several Democrats and even some of the original Obamacare architects stepped forward to argue that the crippling premium increases from 2014 through 2017 were just a 1x market adjustment and that everything would miraculously 'stabilize' in 2018.

Well, according to data from the Kaiser Family Foundation, that prediction isn't playing out exactly as expected.  Taking a look at 21 of the bigger healthcare markets in the United States, Kaiser found that premiums submitted so far for 2018 are increasing at an average rate of 17% YoY and ranging up to 49% in Wilmington. 

Now, we understand that the term "stabilizing" is somewhat subjective but we're not sure that rates spiking at 10.5x prevailing inflation rates, on average, would reasonably fit anyone's definition.

 

Meanwhile the 4-year rate increases from 2014 to 2018 are even more staggering...

 

And while Democrats continue to boast about overall Obamacare enrollments, the "off-exchange market" (i.e. people who make too much money to quality for subsidies and whose premiums are required to subsidize everyone else who does qualify) contracted by 2.1mm in 2016, or a 29% drop.  With those kind of declines, it's only a matter of time until there are no more 'rich' fools in the pool willing to continue subsidizing a broken system. More from the National Review:

Also, MFA published the same report in 2016, facilitating a year-over-year comparison. The on-exchange market fell from 12,681,874 to 12,216,003 individuals, a reduction of 465,871 or 4 percent. However, the off-exchange market fell from 7,520,939 to 5,361,451, a reduction of 2,159,488 or 29 percent. In other words, enrollment is steady among those who receive subsidies but declining dramatically among those who do not.

 

Much has been made of the question of whether the individual markets are in a “death spiral.” Given that the on-exchange market enrollment is relatively stable, there is clearly not a death spiral in the subsidized market. However, with a reduction in the unsubsidized market of 29 percent in just one year, that pattern certainly looks like one we would expect in a market spiraling down.

Of course, it's all Trump's fault now...

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Creepy_Azz_Crackaah's picture

Let it drown.

No Baywatch lifeguards.  No nothing.

Drown.

GUS100CORRINA's picture

Two Charts Prove Obamacare Is Not "Stabilizing" In 2018

My response: Before Obamacare fails completely, PUT THE US SENATE AND US CONGRESS ON OBAMACARE and REMOVE THEIR PERSONAL HEALTHCARE PLANS.

BullyBearish's picture

post trumpence, i propose the following cabinet appointments:

Treasury: Ron Paul

State: Edward Snowden

Communications ( a new cabinet position): Glen Greenwald

Attorney General: Chris Hedges

 

just to name a few...cfr/zionists need not apply to the new Americanism which prohibits divided loyalties...

NoDebt's picture

"Obamacare Is Not "Stabilizing""

I disagree.  Dead is a very stable condition.  

(Side note:  abject failure of a government program is not to be confused with it's termination.  They are kept on life support forever.  Nothing ever dies in government.)

 

AGuy's picture

"I disagree. Dead is a very stable condition. "

Behind every bad or failed gov't program is an even bigger/worst version. Queue the Single Payer System. Obozocare was designed to fail from the start so that Single Payer can take over.

TBT or not TBT's picture

Queue Rahm-esque "A crisis is a terrible thing to waste".   Crisis is the plan.   

Anunnaki's picture

Dems will never support Single Payer. They will collude with R's to make a few cosmetic improvements to Obamacare instead

Zoobs's picture

The VA is single payer.  Yeah, like I want that as my healthcare option.

doctor10's picture

ObamaCare has no representation for the American People. The drug companies, hospital chains and insurance companies each own a lobbying firm or two on K St to help them sell their shit to Congress-and accordingly rates rise

The American People have no one other than Trump to help them out here-and even his own party is flipping him the bird on healthcare.

It needs to be ended. Now.

AGuy's picture

"ObamaCare has no representation for the American People. The drug companies, hospital chains and insurance companies each own a lobbying firm or two on K St to help them sell their shit to Congress-and accordingly rates rise"

Probably not so much, since Obozocare is designed to fail to bring in Single payer which will put the insurance companies out of business and likely lead to hospital/medical center closures. People are dropping out due to the high premium costs and hospitals have to turn away patients because patients aren't able to cover the high deductable costs.

TBT or not TBT's picture

As Lenin had it, the capitalists would gladly sell him the rope he would use to hang them all.    This is what the insurance cartels went in for teaming up with the protofascist modern Democrat party.  

Harry Paranockus's picture

1. Those that want emnployer subsidized insurance from congress, are on Obamacare. That means about 95% of them.

2. This is only one Congress, composed of the House and the Senate.

MozartIII's picture

Making the Insrance Company CEO's alot of bank! Fucking the American People is what is happening. Of course Soro's is making money! Is he paying every one to stay alive???  How is the detroyer of countries and lives still alive, unless they are super raping us and we are still happy. Guess so with the politicle class!

peippe's picture

more like take a coathanger apart & fish it out of the womb & burn it in a bath o' kerosene.

 

ThrowAwayYourTV's picture

If its so wonderful why doesnt congress and senate have it?

Just like, If Massachusetts is so wonderful why the fuck are they all up here in NH. every weekend?

Answer. Because they both suck.

Harry Paranockus's picture

The congress is composed of the House and Senate. Most members of congress are on Obamacare.

ThrowAwayYourTV's picture

Yeah the Golden Gold Plan and probably paid for by tax payers. Not the same, just the title. Probably just calling theircare/obamacare to fool the sheep.

Harry Paranockus's picture

Gold plans are found in Obamacare, No? And yes, they are paid for by taxpayers, just like ALL other health insurance plans.

thisguyoverhere's picture

You are twisting facts. Many people don't have anything but Medicaid, and they don't use it. Its all BS

Many are opting out because they know the 'health system' is really a 'death system' designed to destroy you and your family. Don't have kids and don't plan on it? Great you are out of the gene pool anyway and have no skin in the race of life anyway.

Archibald Buttle's picture

Don't have kids and don't plan on it? Great you are out of the gene pool anyway

and out of the paying through the nose to create more debt serfs pool as well. sometimes the only way to win is to not play.

Harry Paranockus's picture

Twisting what facts? There are about 74 million people on medicaid and the vast majority use it. And ALL health insurance is covered by taxpayers one way or another.

slightlyskeptical's picture

Everyone on health insurance is "on Obamacare". Obamacare is simply the rules that insurance companies and taxpayers must operate under when purchasing or not purchasing health insurance.. 

Harry Paranockus's picture

C'mom. Medicare, VA and Group insurance isn't found on exchanges, and all those who got waivers or didn't buy are not on Obamascare either.

Harry Paranockus's picture

Four down votes for facts? Rubes.

Normalcy Bias's picture

Obamacare is working EXACTLY as designed.

indygo55's picture

Has anyone tried to get a quote for insurance? The fucking phone starts ringing with starving agents 30 seconds after you hit the enter key and it doesnt stop for days. 

MozartIII's picture

But the Insurance companies are making Billions! They only paid millions to the senete and congrass! Sad loss! Can we hang them now?

Anunnaki's picture

Start with Max Baucus. Rhymes with fucked us

are we there yet's picture

If you force a pig to break dance it does not like it, and it is terrible at it. Obama care was a bad concept at controlling medical costs mixed with forced social engineering.

John_Coltrane's picture

I don't care. My health plan with zero co-pays, no premiums is working just fine. The Health Plan: Daily vigorous exercise and eating right (lots of fruits and veggies and minimal meat). Most health care is a dangerous scam suited for those who understand very little about modern medicine and human physiology-the sheep who value authority and can't think for themselves. Hospitals and prescription drugs are the leading cause of premature morbidity and mortality. Bacteria, in particular, love the recombinant prospects of hospitals to enhance their evolution.

MuffDiver69's picture

You'll be fine..If something serious happens they will take everything you own and then you get Medicaid..Enjoy

Give Me Some Truth's picture

Where we're headed ...

Fifty percent of Americans will be on Medicaid. Forty percent will be on Medicaire. And 10 percent will have private insurance - not for the "1 percent" but the "10 percent."

So: Better ...  Protect. That. Printing. Press. At. All. Costs.

 

 

MuffDiver69's picture

Best plan for Trump is to highlight just how much the insurance companies have ripped people off with this scam..Hang it on their heads..Every person who benefited could have just been thrown onto Medicaid and its crappy rationed care...Medicaid is almost a death sentence if you're really sick..It's a joke and stats show it compared to private insurance care..

chemcounter's picture

ABC news reported this on the radio today. Fully blamed Republican Congress and the president for causing "uncertainty" which is driving the implosion. So, by that logic, it is imploding under it's own weight but the party that didn't cast a single vote to pass it is at fault. I still blame the pubs for not just repealing the damn thing like they promised. I don't blame them for it being a steaming pile.

Give Me Some Truth's picture

Everyone focuses on "ObamaCare." The program that is growing at a far-faster rate is Medicaid. This will be the program that breaks state governments first, and then the federal government.

 

JelloBeyonce's picture

But who will think of all the poor Doctors, Nurses, and Hospital & Pharmaceutical CEO's that'll have to relinquish their 3rd & 4th vacation homes and luxury cars without income redistribution programs like Medicaid & Obamacare?

Zoobs's picture

Un-funded pension obligations will bring down cities and states long before Medicaid.  Then taxpayer money will be give to keep them from bankruptcy.  Then the whole ponzi scheme collapses.  Buy bullets, booze, and MREs.  That will be the new currency.

JelloBeyonce's picture

Yet in a strange twist of fate, healthcare, via Obamacare, has been one of the only boons to the largely stagnant US economy.

 

Healthcare spending in 2015 increased 5.8 percent to reach $3.2 trillion, and up again to $3.4 trillion in 2016.  The overall share of the U.S. economy devoted to health care spending was 17.8 percent in 2015, up from 17.4 percent in 2014.

CMS estimates US healthcare will reach 20% of GDP by 2025 (that's one of every five dollars spent). 

Of the 205,000 jobs added to the July 2017 BLS employment figures, 46,900 were in healthcare services (22.8%), second only to restaurant (waitress & bartender) jobs.  Interestingly, both occupations are mainly focused on mindless consumerism, lead by a steadily uneducated work force.

Would you like a big mac with that angioplasty? 


 

Anunnaki's picture

Healthcare spending at the expense of buying other goods and services.

otschelnik's picture

The Gubermint could put this limping horse out of its misery tomorrow by just phasing out subsidies to the insurance companies.  The insurance companies would then hasten the withdrawl from Obummercare or be forced to raise premiums even more, which would hasten the death spiral.

 

Anunnaki's picture

Why didn't they just kill the mandate? No Ponzi scheme where non enrollees subsidize the indigent sign ups

Didn't Obumbfuck count on IRS penalties by non enrolees to defray a significant portion of the govt cost to offer subsidies

And Pelousy and the Dems will go to the mat to "improve" Obamacare

Can't wiait til 25% increase notices go out October 2018. Should be a good motivator for voting R that November

How fucking dumb is Obama to set this up as an election reminder so close to an election.

Should have made the sign ups due in July.

I predicted Obamacare would be the deathknell of the Democratic Party when this turd was passed in 2010. Glad to be proven correct

Zoobs's picture

A simple "All enforcement of the ACA is hereby rescinded" would revert us back to the market we had pre-Obamacare.  Start there and fix what was broken, not what was working.  Competition across state lines, repeal of McCarran-Ferguson, risk pools, HSAs, tort reform, etc.  One bill at a time.  No more 2000 page monstrosities.