Gartman Stakes His Reputation That "The Bull Market Has Come To An End"

Tyler Durden's picture

If the algos were waiting for just one catalyst to unleash the buy everything, sell VIX program, they may have gotten it moments ago when, following a global rout across markets on yet another day of North Korean nuclear war concerns, Dennis Gartman, staking his "reputation" said that he is "fearful… very… that this wondrous bull market that began in the spring of ‘09 has come to an end and we do not make this statement lightly for we know the damage that can be done to an already damaged reputation if this statement proves to be wrong."

Judging by the spike in futures after today's 5th consecutive miss in CPI, which paradoxically has now pushed the dollar higher, Gartman's "reputation" suddenly appears in peril.

His key thoughts excerpted below:

There are two questions facing us this morning regarding investment in equities. Firstly, will the “Machines”… the algorithmic buyers… trained only to buy weakness step to the fore once again and buy equities with abandon? We must remember that the “Machines” have a very limited memory; they’ve no memory of decades past and of protracted bear markets. Instead, their algorithms tell them to simply buy weakness and this, clearly, is weakness. So shall they? That is THE question.

 

Secondly, we wonder if the supposed support for the market here in the US at or near 2435 in the nearby S&P futures… and in the “spot”… will hold, for as the chart included at the bottom of p.1 would seem to suggest that support absolutely must hold. As we write, it is and as the day progresses it must.

 

We have our very serious doubts however and those doubts are raised for a number of very real and very serious reasons, not the least of which is that some of the truly best and brightest investors of our age are retreating or have already retreated to the sidelines, fearing the arrival of at least a material, damaging correction of some 7-10% or perhaps even the onslaught of a true bear market. Paul Singer… in our eyes one of the five best investors of the age… of Elliott Management has said that he is prepared “For all hell to break loose.” Bill Gross… perhaps the preimminent bond market analysts/trader/investor of the age… has gone on record as stating only just recently that the risks of equity ownership are as high as they were in ’08, and that at this point when buying weakness “instead of buying low and selling high, you’re buying high and crossing your fingers.” And then there is the always quotable… and genius… Mr. Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital who’s gone on record to suggest that the “perpetual motion machine” that everyone has come to believe the stock market to be to the upside has ground to a halt.

 

Finally, we wrote yesterday about the rare nature of the “unanimity” of movement in stocks around the world and said

the fact that there is unanimity of weakness is important to us for this is a rather rare event. Indeed, history shows that unanimity of market movements such as this happen at the beginnings of and/or the endings of protracted trends…

 

[Thus]… bull markets end with either a “universal” day higher, or to see it end with a day such as the current day when all ten markets turn lower. In other words, we do not take this sort of unanimity of direction lightly, but rather we pay it very serious heed 

We are indeed fearful… very… that this wondrous bull market that began in the spring of ‘09 has come to an end and we do not make this statement lightly for we know the damage that can be done to an already damaged reputation if this statement proves to be wrong. But the monetary authorities who’ve sponsored this bull market with their massive injections of money borne out of the ether have begun the process of either standing down from that monetary expansionism or have at the very least chosen to slow the process… either of which shall be deleterious to equity.

 

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
TomJoad's picture

That tears it. I'm out of my shorts and going long everything!

Budnacho's picture

Precisely....this is truly the opportunity we've been looking for!

Muddy1's picture

I'm long!  This guy never get's it right.  The DOW will gain 5,000 today alone.

Fake Trump's picture

Minus another 500 today. Nobody loves a fire and fury weekend for sure. Trump just opened his big mouth again saying locked and loaded. He has an unstable personality. Can't trust him at all. A seven times draft dodger who suddenly became the Commander in Chief. What a joke. Just like asking a cab driver to be the CEO of Apple.

Killtruck's picture

The guy who overcame incredible odds to become the President of the United States is being criticized by you. 

On the Internet.

Anonymously.

Oh Lawwwd, I hope he can stand it.  

The Cooler King's picture

Come on Gartman ~ man up!

 

Promise to eat your dick on TV if you're wrong.

 

Your 'reputation' is already shot so that's not even a bargaining chip.

Creepy_Azz_Crackaah's picture

@ Killtruck re: Fake Trump: The mental illness known as liberalism causes, what sometimes seem to be normal people, to froth at the mouth, going spastic about people and/or things that they hate. If it were not an illness it would be hysterical. And they truly believe that they will convince people that their "argument" is correct by going spastic. Sad.

BullyBearish's picture

finally...the fartman gives some GOOD advice for the very willing sheep...

fx's picture

I seriously doubt that there can be much more damage to his already heavily damaged reputation.

He is wrong here as almost always. This bull market will surprise many to the upside before it eventually comes crashing down.

 

Dow 40k and SP 5k, bitchez!

MillionDollarButter's picture

He has given up on prognosticating and has decided to become captain obvious.

JRobby's picture

He certainly isn't going out on a limb here.

He sits atop a monolith of imbecility uniquely his own.

Risk will arrive when The Dark Pools & CB's decide so. Gartman is not in their club.

Father ¢hristmas's picture

Shabbos Goy silver spoon billionaire real estate magnate climbed atop a heap of fat diabetic Americans intravenously fed public education and Billy Joel records for the past 50 years.

Long odds.

*chuckle*

Plunge Protection's picture

Gartman just making up random nonsense about how the Algos trade, like he knows jack shit. 

barndoor's picture

"Gartman just making up random nonsense "

Nothing random about Gartman's non-sense; he is wrong virtually all of the time.

Plunge Protection's picture

True, anytime Gartman opens his mouth is an opportunity... I'm about to go monkey smash the vix back down to 10

Bay of Pigs's picture

For staters someone ought to ask him about FASB 157 which started this "bull market" in 2009. Then throw in corporate buybacks and CB buying of stocks. In short, there is no reason to believe this nonsense will end either.

Gartman is a first rate clown.

Father ¢hristmas's picture

That whole statement about the algos having no memory is breathtakingly stupid considering they operate automatically based on raw data.

chubbar's picture

First, it ALL depends on what the FED wants to do. If it decides to stop the behind the scenes support of the market then it crashes, if the FED continues to pour billions into supporting it, then it goes up. I'm not sure what the confusion is about? If the retards posing these types of questions don't understand what is going on, then any conclusions they offer should be disregarded. The tools that exist that can control downdrafts in the market until FED support hits and shoves it back up are more than adequate for the job. Everyone should know that the FED is setting the markets up for a crash that will be generational if not final, this is by design. The market doesn't crash unless and until the FED/Deep State decides it's time. Everything is tied to the markets now. When that goes, the economy goes full stop. Prepare for it.

JRobby's picture

3rd week in August has gone from a whisper to a scream.

That indicates that nothing will happen for a while.

Where is that "Buy the fucking dip" cartoon?

thinkmoretalkless's picture

Can't this guy just shut up and go away

BeanusCountus's picture

Have to admit, Gartman rarely correct. But there are more reputable folks that deserve a listen saying some pretty interesting stuff. Dalio recommending 5-10% in gold? Pretty damn high, even for him. The other guys Gartman mentions in his stuff are hardly idiots. And how about this: Sandy Jadeja the technical analyst told us what to look for in 2017 as an indicator for a short-term (year) blowdown between 15-30%. If I got it right. the indicator was the Dow hitting a new all time high in a week that ended with a weekly close. Unless Dow picks up another 200 pts or so before eod, that's what will happen today.

Throw in the start of balance sheet reduction by Fed starting Sept (slow at first), a little NK jawboning, no tax reform, a couple other surprises and you have a pretty interesting few months.

shizzledizzle's picture

"His Reputation" LOL 

gm_general's picture

Gartman would need Reputation Defender but you can't defend what you don't have.

SmilinJoeFizzion's picture

His reputation as what? A ladies man?

Racer's picture

Cue massive up day

yogibear's picture

Rip your face off rally!!!!!

GunnerySgtHartman's picture

And next week he will say "buy, buy, buy!"

Uncle Sugar's picture

He will say 'We were leaning slightly against the market and thought it prudent to cover our shorts,  sell everything that hurt when dropped on the toe and now long of S&P futures"

Chippewa Partners's picture

Reminds me of a babbling idiot.  

CNONC's picture

His comments today sound exactly like every doom porn article published here on ZH for the last two years.  So he is wrong when he's bullish, and he's wrong when he's bearish? 

rex-lacrymarum's picture

Exactly - ALWAYS wrong, almost without exception. It's truly eerie. 

JBilyj's picture

That's the signal to sell gold now!

FredGSanford.'s picture

Now we know for sure no crash !!

Dr. Engali's picture

Not much of a stake. BTFD.

vegas's picture

R.I.P. Dennis. On the other hand, even a broken clock is right twice a day ... so.

 

www.traderzoogold.blogspot.com

vegas's picture

R.I.P. Dennis. On the other hand, even a broken closck is right twice a day ... so.

 

www.traderzoogold.blogspot.com

rex-lacrymarum's picture

re. broken clock - not THIS one. Don't forget, he keeps flip-flopping on every 0.2% move in the market, so he actually isn't a broken clock, he's just consistently wrong

Two Theives and a Liar's picture

His reputation has reached a "permanently high plateau" ..LOL. 

 

replaceme's picture

So I'm getting that the base here sees him as a contrarian indicator? 

SantaClaws's picture

And if NK agreed unilaterally to disarm today?  Buy, buy, buy Dennis, no?

Fake Trump's picture

Fire anf Fury ended it. Thank you Trump. You're great. 

goose3's picture

How can you stake something you no longer have?