CBO Blames Trump: Sees 20% Surge In 2018 Obamacare Premiums If Subsidies Removed

Tyler Durden's picture

At the request of Nancy Pelosi, the Congressional Budget Office has just released a study intended to better understand the potential economic impacts that would result from the cancellation of taxpayer funded Obamacare subsidies (a.k.a. "cost-sharing reductions" or "CSRs").  The report is entitled "The Effects of Terminating Payments for Cost-Sharing Reductions," and, among other things finds that cutting CSRs would cause a 20% spike in Obamacare premiums in 2018 and result in a $194 billion increase in the deficit from 2017 through 2026.

Here are the highlights:

- The fraction of people living in areas with no insurers offering nongroup plans would be greater during the next two years and about the same starting in 2020;


- Gross premiums for silver plans offered through the marketplaces would be 20 percent higher in 2018 and 25 percent higher by 2020—boosting the amount of premium tax credits according to the statutory formula;


- Most people would pay net premiums (after accounting for premium tax credits) for nongroup insurance throughout the next decade that were similar to or less than what they would pay otherwise—although the share of people facing slight increases would be higher during the next two years;


- Federal deficits would increase by $6 billion in 2018, $21 billion in 2020, and $26 billion in 2026; and ? The number of people uninsured would be slightly higher in 2018 but slightly lower starting in 2020.

Or, put more simply...if Trump decides to cut taxpayer-funded subsidies for a completely failed Obama-era piece of legislation then all future premium hikes are his fault...

While Obama has yet to offer an official statement on the CBO's report, we imagine it would go something like this:



Of course, according to data from the Department of Health and Human Services, the average individual purchaser of health insurance across the United States saw their premiums increase from $232 per month in 2013 to $476 per month in 2017, a 'modest' increase of over 100% in just a few years.

Ironically, that equates to a constantly annualized growth rate of exactly 20% per year.


Said another way, the CBO predicts that, without the benefit of taxpayer subsidies, Obamacare premiums would increase in 2018 at the exact same rate they've increased for each of the past 4 years...except they managed to find a convenient excuse for the continued collapse of a failed policy and a scapegoat...President Trump.

Well played, Nancy...well played.



The full report from the CBO can be read here:

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buzzsaw99's picture

fuck your subsidies. bitchez.

Au_Ag_CuPbCu's picture

What the hell are they talking aboutn, 20% annual premium spikes are the norm...

Countrybunkererd's picture

Don't forget the "budget" was never actually approved.

Amaroosta's picture

Pay for it in taxes

or pay for it in premiums

or repeal the legislation

Never One Roach's picture

"If you want to keep your fat subsidies, you can keep your fat subsidies."

Creepy_Azz_Crackaah's picture

Well, fuck you, CBO.

Quit forcibly taking my income to pay for other people's shit.

wee-weed up's picture



The CBO is a Leftist tool.

ObozoCare is a shitty design - on purpose!

It was designed to lead to single-payer health care, run only by the government.

Total control.

The fact that it would suck up greater & greater portions of taxpayer money was of no concern to the designers. That was just one of the fatal flaws.

This stinking mess needs to be flushed down the toilet just like the turd it is named after.

spastic_colon's picture

you mean the Perpetual Insurance Company Bailout Act ??

it has nothing to do with care or health.............

DownWithYogaPants's picture

What only 20% ????  

With ObamaCare when it only goes up 20% you feel like you're getting a smoking deal !!!

doctor10's picture

ObamaCare has no representation for the American People. The drug companies, hospital chains and insurance companies each own a lobbying firm or two on K St to help them sell their shit to Congress-and accordingly rates rise

The American People have no one other than Trump to help them out here-and even his own party is flipping him the bird on healthcare.

It needs to be ended. Now.

Rubbish's picture

Any chance hookers will be a prescribed cure in the near future?


Gold Bitchez.....I pick up pennies

oldmanofthesee's picture

"No revenue from taxpayer's will be used to pay subsidies". What a fuckin' joke!

BeanusCountus's picture

Right on the money. Either the American taxpayers pay for the subsidies, or the people that use the stuff pay for the insurance. Yet somehow this gets positioned as mean spirited by Trump if he says it's the user's responsibility.

knightowl77's picture

Ain't that the friggen truth! and deductibles go up by 100% every year...

Just Friggen REPEAL ObamaCare NOW!

Just Friggen REPEAL ObamaCare NOW!

Just Friggen REPEAL ObamaCare NOW!

Just Friggen REPEAL ObamaCare NOW!

Just Friggen REPEAL ObamaCare NOW!

and while you are at it- Build the Fckn Wall Already!!!!!

Zorba's idea's picture

In four years my Anthem BCBS Individual Plan went from $6500 (prem+deductible) to 2017's $16,250 (prem+deductible) Bronze plan with a 65/35 split. And, no plan utilization other than yearly Physical. Anyone who has the nerve to call this Health Insurance is a candidate for Tesla's Mars settlement.  FFS! 

P.S. Years of being personally responsible for healthy life style will NOT discount the HC SHAM. This truly is Owhatshisname's legacy. POS


takeaction's picture

My 78 Year old Mom just went in to have a procedure done on her hands (Kaiser/Medicare)  It is a series of shots that eliminate cartilage build up.  Her hands were curling in, and she could not open them.  We went in.  30 minutes later complete....Bill to medicare...$11,900.70.


My wife wanted a "Breast enhancement"  All out of pocket using (Kaiser Hospital...same place my mother went)....6 appointments,

4 hour surgery with an anesthesiologist, multiple assistants...,

Full day at the Hospital...... follow up visits, incredible care...$5900.00 and 3% off for paying in full...$5723.00.

Do you see the problem here??


cheech_wizard's picture

Kaiser, primarily...

My wife went in for spinal fusion surgery and have titanium rods installed for her degenerative spinal condition...

1 year later the surgery had to be completely redone as the doctor was booted out of Kaiser for malpractice, and the screws holding the rods had worked loose.

Enter me with premium corporate health care insurance...(long before Obamacare), went to one of the best spinal surgeons in the state of CA. My cost out of pocket when all was said and done - $2500. Insurance picked up nearly a quarter of a million. Of course they gutted her like a fish, but the screws and rods are still firmly in place after nearly 16 years.

Stnadrd Disclaimer: FUCK OBAMACARE.

yellowsub's picture

Or they close up shop and leave you with nuttin'...

Countrybunkererd's picture

I am so glad you were first.  It is such a perfect place for what we all feel.

HRClinton's picture

It's hip and Progressive to ...

"Don't ask what you can do for yourself. Ask what Government can do for you."

takeaction's picture


ArgentDawn's picture

The fix is in, the machine is setting the table to evict the outsider using public opinion and manipulated data

BandGap's picture

So....remove the free money and people have to pay more.

Got it.

Hkan's picture

Commit subsidial...

TheFederalistPapers's picture

Cancel them. Pain for the masses.

Dg4884's picture

Just love to see all of these .gov commies perp walked through the public square. Wonder how long they would last...  There's some social justice for you.

cuttlefish's picture

They will never pay never be held accountable suck it up sheeple


Never One Roach's picture

Lose weight, eat right and exercise; I'm not paying for your diabetes, heart attacks, strokes, drug addiction, and on and on.

Those are life style choices.


True Blue's picture

Those are life style choices.

So is going 'Galt' in order to avoid paying for the looters; otherwise you will be forced to do so at gunpoint. Withdraw your sanction; refuse to be enslaved to the wants and desires of the looter class.

Rainman's picture

Bet before the year's out Obozo becomes the new CEO of Pfizer.

Ben A Drill's picture

When it takes 1 week for approval for a $70.00 shot, it's the insurance company's last resort to delay treatment.

gregga777's picture

It's criminal to charge $70 for a shot that costs no more than $1.

Chuck Walla's picture

"It's criminal to charge $70 for a shot that costs no more than $1."

Philistine! Have you seen the price of a new Bentley? 

Rick Cerone's picture

Nazis want their money.

GunnerySgtHartman's picture

This, from the same CBO that said:

1. The exchanges would be stable by now with more than twice as many enrollees than are actually in them

2. Medicaid expansion would be much smaller and much cheaper than it turned out to be

3. Insurer losses would be smaller than they actually are

The CBO has a worse track record than the weather forecaster on the local news!

Zorba's idea's picture

Yeah, my sister would be my brother if she had balls. REPEAL OhNO!care!!! Strike down all the HC Oligarchs! Unfettered Free Market HC...Do IT! Lastly, Fix our stinking fiat...End The FED.

Duc888's picture



"Yeah, my sister would be my brother if she had balls."


Ok, now that's funny...LOL

you enjoy myself's picture

You're correct, but the larger point is that CSR's are illegal.  No money was ever approriated for them.  I have no idea why Pelosi gets to ask the CBO to score the plus/minus of subsidies that are not written into law.  That Obama, and now Trump, illegally paid insurers out of the treasury is not the CBO's problem.  They should have refused to score the request.


Separately, how in the world does the failure to continue paying the bailouts increase the debt?  That conclusion alone means the entire report is basically witchcraft anyways.

gregga777's picture

The 535 war criminals in the United States CONgress and all of their straphangers can all go hang for all I care. In fact, I wish that they would all go hang by nooses from lampposts.

They are all parasites on sale to the highest bidder amongst the Oligarchs, banking gangsters, CON Street Swindlers and Crony Capitalist CONporations. They always LIE to the voters. They are only truthful to their masters who pay their bribes.

jmack's picture

Only 20% would be a nice change of pace.

Pernicious Gold Phallusy's picture

And THAT'S the rest of the story.

Last of the Middle Class's picture

I'm sure the CBO wouldn't be carrying water for the liberal insurance lobby, now would they? Anyone who believes ANY government number is an idiot

aliens is here's picture

Fking axxholes are coming out of all over the place attacking Trump today. Where were they when Obama was in office? Fking SOB.

Chris88's picture

It's even funnier that he has no foundational ideological difference from Barry and you guys pretend he does.  I wonder if it's buyers' remorse or you're all really this stupid.

Spitball's picture

Of the 2 turds, he's the one with less stink

Chris88's picture

At the end of the day, a turd is still a piece of shit.

oldmanofthesee's picture

Do you mean when they torched Ferguson, MO, and destroyed all that stuff at Berkeley? I think Obama got involved. Didn't he send the DOJ to investigate the cops?

Jason T's picture

no, drug prices and medical care costs will plummet when subsidies removed .