Retail Sales Rebound In July - Biggest Jump Since Dec 2016 On Record Auto Incentives

Tyler Durden's picture

After declining for two straight months, US Retail Sales in July rebounded dramatically to a 0.6% MoM gain - the most since Dec 2016 - driven a surge in motor vehicles (record incentives) and department stores (more inventives?). Year-over-year saw upward revisions and a rebound to a 4.2% rise in July.

The last two month's declines in Retail Sales have been revised away magically and we have now gone 5 months without a decline...

 

Everything rose except clothing stores (-0.2%), electronics and appliance stores (-0.5%) and gasoline stations (-0.4%)

How sustainbale is this? Record automaker incentives and a desperate 'retailer'/department store business slashing prices to maintain some revenues?

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FreeShitter's picture

End of MY car clearance sales...?

back to basics's picture

Could ZH show what credit card debt did during the same period? 

I can guess.  

847328_3527's picture

I wonder what their profit margin was? They could sell tons if they sell at a loss.

KansasCrude's picture

Try this on for size and explanations...by Dave Kranzler.  U.S. Household Debt at record levels bigger than China's GDP.  Good discussion on RETAIL SALES

 

http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/household-debt-at-record-level-bigger-than-chinas-gdp/

Handful of Dust's picture

That report is pretty accurate from what I see first hand "on the street." I am shocked even with the number of Asians I know who are now getting into deep debt.

They used to only buy with cash now I see them taking out huge loans and mortgages and that's what the nearby builder is telling me also. He said they used to walk in, look at a handful of houses and buy at least one house on the spot. Now they are taking out mega loans he said on those $750,00+ houses.

runningman18's picture

Convenient positive data and timing for the banksters - now the Fed can begin reducing their balance sheet and continue hiking rates because "recovery".

CorporateCongress's picture

They'll make it up on volume 

spastic_colon's picture

2017 and we have algos that can count to a trillion in a nanosecond and we still have "revisions"; why upgrade when you can count on your fingers.

dont forget that if the stock market see's any protracted downside or a correction that these numbers will be adjusted down...........

Drater's picture

Everything is awesome!

Hal n back's picture

Remember the auto companies in the aggregate reported a 7% decline in July sales, and restauranrs were down 2.8%.

That 26% of retail sales thats been falsified.

Harry Lightning's picture

If I ran a big fund right now and was heavy in Treasuries, I would get that asshole Secretary of Treasury on the phone, and tell hm to watch his Bloomberg. I then would sell a billion 10s and 30s, crashing the market another point or three or four....and then I would tell that piece of shit that the next time they manufacture a negative to positive turnaround in retail sales of more than a few ticks I'll sell a fucking hundred million of his toilet paper bonds.

This government is so goddamn corrupt. What happened, did the Fed scream that they needed cover for tightening into a weakening economy ?

Hume's picture

Was up .5% ex autos, so no - it wasn't the incentives.

awarebulldog's picture

I have watched the folks around me at work and where I live and I am not seeing any new cars and I am not seeing any spending.  What I have noticed is that people are putting off maintenace and only spending on necessities.  There is a McDonalds and some other chain places nearby and they are almost empty.  There is some drive through traffic but no one has to wait long.  At stores like Target people are browsing and getting necessities.  I don't see any full carts.  At Kroger its the same.  People have to eat but I don't see bigger spending.  Maybe its other parts of the country that are making up for the retail sales.  Here in TX where I am I don't see it. 

JackMeOff's picture

Even a dead body farts for awhile.

adr's picture

Honda - Brand new Accord, being replaced with all new 2018 model, Sticker: $26,499 Dealer Offer: $19,250 .9% for 66 months

Toyota - New Camry: Sticker $24,500 Dealer offer: $21,500 with 0% for 60

Volkswagen - Jetta 1.4: Sticker $19,429 Dealer Offer $13,777 - Jetta GLI: Sticker $28,488 Offer $23,250

GM - Buick SUV: Sticker $39,009 Offer $24,500 with 0% for 60

 

Best time to buy a new car since 2008. Some dealers are giving thier cars away just to get rid of them.

naps8906's picture

where is this?  I need to buy a new car.  Lexus preferably.

Arrow4Truth's picture

WTF... at 10:09 AM you post an article saying, "Once again motor vehicles dominated the rise in inventories in June (up 0.7% MoM) as retail inventories rose 0.6% MoM but sales lagged at just 0.3%. This mismatch pushed the aggregate inventory-to-sales ratio back to its highest since Nov 2015 at 1.38 months." Now you're saying, "US Retail Sales in July rebounded dramatically to 0.6% Mom gain - the most since Dec 2016 - driven a surge (sic) in motor vehicles (record incentives) and deparment stores (more incentives?). Year-over-year saw upward revisions and a rebound to a 4.2% rise in July." I see the June/July references which leave room for more "revisions" so here's some revised numbers for you. While MoM changes result in +/- 0.9%, year-over-year aggregates bring the cumulative size of my cock to just over 11"... of course, subject to revision. Suck it.