One Trader Scoffs "Finally, A Market Where It's Easy To Get Rich"

Tyler Durden's picture

Sometimes you have to just throw in the towel, know when to fold 'em, and join 'em coz you can't beat 'em.. and that appears to be former fund manager Richard Breslow's take on the current utter apathy in markets currently. His message is clear - nothing matters except technical levels - which ironically, none other than CNBC's-own Jim Cramer admitted this morning "the market is completely divorced from whatever is going on," whioch presumably means "buy it all."

Via Bloomberg,

That which does not kill us, makes us stronger. A much debated concept, but in terms of navigating markets, there’s a lot of truth in it. Asset prices have been all over the map during the last week. Good news mixing with ugly news. Well-laid plans having to consider great uncertainty.

But one positive outcome is we have technical levels, and close ones, for just about every stripe of security class to lean on and whatever your directional inclination.

We’re not good at pricing geo-political events, hence the student body type moves to the headlines. Jackson Hole and the September central bank meetings seem to be swiftly becoming known knowns, so not a lot of help with what to do now. But there’s no reason to throw your hands up in despair. There are plenty of trades to do with limited downside risk but the potential to morph into something good.

 

The dollar comes out of this looking pretty good. Whether you look at it against the dollar index or the Bloomberg dollar index, it is definitely attempting to put in a bottom and see if it can push higher. It’s retaken its shorter-term moving averages and, more importantly, the levels it cratered from last week. On the DXY, you can risk half of one-percent to get two-percent of potential upside at 96 or play a break below 93.50 for a re-test of August lows.

 

 

Interestingly, and I’d say, unexpectedly, given recent trends, the euro itself looks decidedly so-so. Could be a position reduction. Maybe a reality check on ECB hawkishness. Versus the yen, below 130.5 is a potential problem, but hardly far away. We were close to getting back above it this morning. EUR/CHF has a beautiful pivot at 1.14 and we’ve been playing with that level all day. It’s still doing well against sterling, but one-percent lower and those calls for parity will seem like wishful thinking. But as frothy as it looked cruising through 1.18 to the dollar, it will look appalling below 1.16. It’s not surprising that we currently sit at 1.17. Although, I would point out that forays below 1.17 have been short-lived.

 

The S&P 500 has identified a 2440, 2470 pair of pivots. No reason to sit out 5 percent corrections and such. I’ve no particular bias, but would point out that it seems to get tradable follow-through when it crosses back and forth through its 21-day moving average.

 

 

For a real shocker, Treasury yields are trying to convincingly reject that panic dive below 2.2%. Back below would look horrific, but the risk is no more than 10 basis points. On the other hand, they need to clear the top put in before Chair Yellen’s July 12 testimony to break free of this demoralizing range.

 

 

Gold made a triple top on Friday, matching peaks from April and June. So far, despite any news, $1300 has proven to be a bridge too far. But if you want to play for it you can get a cheap look with a $10 stop from current levels. Below $1250 you can get a potential look at the July lows.

 

 

Oh, I almost forgot. West Texas crude broke below channel support at $48 this past Monday. If you want to be really parsimonious, play with that pivot.

 

Breslow concludes optimistically "so many opportunities and plenty of time to see what can be done with them... finally a market where it's easy to get rich."

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BabaLooey's picture

Yeah.................

about 8 years late in jumping aboard, Mister Johnny Come Asininely........

UndergroundPost's picture

For the Fed, its always Easy Street:

"Despite the ongoing adjustments in the housing sector, overall economic prospects for households remain good. Household finances appear generally solid, and delinquency rates on most types of consumer loans and residential mortgages remain low." - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, Feb 15 2007.

nope-1004's picture

about 8 years late

I agree, but would actually extend that to post 9-11.  In early 2003, trends and data sets started appearing that were clearly not normal.  This has been a totally manipulated market for many years, the intensity of manipulation increasing post 2008 due to the entire thing facing insolvency and being a few months away from complete bankruptcy.  Normalcy is gone.  Manipulation is the way.  Failure cannot and will not be allowed to occur, especially in the banking sector.

Real life markets are a thing of the past.  Any 'trader' under 40 has no clue about correlations or trends.

Crazy Or Not's picture

I don't think the Tylers read the comments anymore, or else they'd know they're preaching to the wrong audience.
Gold's too small a (physical) market not to be easily price manipulated.
Buffet / Berklay Hathaway called S&P market trend back in 2008 [ http://longbets.org/362/
The rest of us chew popcorn waiting for the bust.... (which was probably set in stone a few days before Buffet placed his bet).
Tylers - post something we don't know....it's getting boring here.

Hank Reardon's picture

You may right but the players have changed and there are other bullies in the playground now. Who knows what the new kids want?

mccvilb's picture

"The Markets" have never ever been markets and yet Tyler continues to perpetuate this mythology with 3rd party articles and magical graphs. Jesse Livermore's bucket shop tickertape was the closest thing to a fair trade any of us would ever see. Hedge funds, algos, HFT front-running and milli-cent trade extensions have superceded pre-market traders' lounges and seats on the exchanges. Today the theft has been jacked to near light speed. Newton's f=ma2 or Einstein's e=mc2 .  Classical or quantum... screwed is screwed; what's the difference, really? 

venturen's picture

it all seems great till they march you off to the camps

PlayMoney's picture

And who is this clown that think technicals matter? HA! Stawks just go up regardless of anything.

spastic_colon's picture

yep today....dollar UP....VIX UP....yields UP.....stocks UP.....silver UP......gold UP.....oil UP.....easy peasy

LawsofPhysics's picture

LOL!!!   Define "rich"...

"Full Faith and Credit"

GunnerySgtHartman's picture

finally a market where it's easy to get rich

And get reamed if you get greedy.

"Bulls make money and bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered."

J J Pettigrew's picture

Algos have no common sense, no ability to guage geo political events 

SubjectivObject's picture

digital g old appears to be an undamped oscillator with a particular harmonic frequency

algalore

Soph's picture

"easy to get rich" is always a bit of an overstatement in markets...they can surprise you when you get too overconfident in your strategy.

That said, I'd agree that there are some great technical patterns to trade currently, and in the recent past, that can chock up some nice returns.

ReturnOfDaMac's picture

About time, any you actually get paid to run money???   Jeeze, its simple buy, buy, buy!!

onthedeschutes's picture

Another "One trader says blah blah blah" type article.  Yawn.

MrBoompi's picture

"the market is completely divorced from whatever is going on,"

This has been going on for years.  Are we supposed to put our trust in a guy who says it yesterday?  As if it is some kind of new fucking revelation?  

Libtard's picture

"When life looks like easy street, there is danger at the door" ~Robert Hunter/Jerry Garcia

NEOSERF's picture

Classic topping, thrown in the towel data point

venturen's picture

this time is different....central banks no longer have any restraint.....just shower people with worthless bits and paper. 

Rebelrebel7's picture

Ok. Good luck! I hope that everyone becomes instantly obscenely filthy rich over night!

 

Hank Reardon's picture

Well it's now time to go short. Whole behemoth has got the staggers and about to faceplant.

wide angle tree's picture

buy the dip, short the vix

drink beer

Rick Cerone's picture

Herr Breslow is a good Nazi.

Clowns on Acid's picture

Who cares what Breslow says....What does Gartman say ??? Then you know how to bet.

Hank Reardon's picture

Money rolling in "my precious" & out of the index...but I've only been wrong for 6-7 years...

Grandad Grumps's picture

Obviously, when we die and our consciousness leaves our bodies and this world, we cannot take money or possessions with us.

What then constitutes a good life?

The controllers of this world want us to believe that accumulating crap and hedonism make for a good life. They can have that life if they want. It is not for me.

HushHushSweet's picture

Rope 'em ALL in with promises (and well-publicized proof) of "guaranteed" high returns, get 'em hooked, get 'em more hooked, get 'em obsessed, get 'em hanging on for dear life, even as the market starts to show the tell-tale shakes of withdrawal, keep 'em hanging on for dear life, keep 'em hanging on for dear life, and then -- PULL IT.

And as the freefall spins out of control, buy up the final plunge (before the addled masses have a chance to see what's what) for pennies on the dollar.

Worked well in 1929.

TheRideNeverEnds's picture

Buy the dip is the only technical strategy that works, it's also the only fundamental as buying the dip is the entire basis for markets existing.