Goldman Sees 50% Chance Of A Government Shutdown

Tyler Durden's picture

As we pointed out earlier, the chances of government agreeing any kind of debt ceiling deal (and avoiding a government shutdown) is dropping fast as USA default risk spikes and the Treasury Bill curve inverts. Goldman Sachs is now concerned also...

Uncertainty in The White House is starting to make investors realize the chance of successfully navigating the debt ceiling crisis without a government shutdown are dwindling...

Via Goldman Sachs,

Low approval ratings raise legislative risks.

 

In the near term, we believe there is a 50% chance of a brief government shutdown, as the president seeks to solidify support among his base by embracing more controversial positions, despite needing Democratic support to pass spending legislation.

 

That said, we expect that the debt limit, which needs to be raised around the same time, will prevent a longer shutdown from occurring.

It seems the credit markets are a little less sanguine than Goldman... 

 

As we noted earlier, sure, Congress has always come together at the 11th hour in the past.  They’ve raised the debt ceiling 78 times over the last 57 years.  So, won’t they just raise it again?

This time around, we have some reservations.  Quite frankly, this Congress has proven that it is not motivated to do what’s best for the American people.  Each representative has an illogical logic unto himself.  Just ask John McCain – he doesn’t know what he wants until the precise moment he votes.

What’s more, these days the debt ceiling has become ultra-politicized in Congress.  Big time horse trading must first take place before an agreement can be reached.  Big time bluster and chest pounding must take place too.

The point is, over the past six months this Congress has been incapable of getting a doggone thing done.  What makes you think they’ll somehow get their act together in just 12 days?

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pound the vix's picture

Way to take a stand...50/50 stupid

Never One Roach's picture

Under Armour down 4% today...down 3% yesterday.

 

Hating Americans and bashing our President has consequences.

Maybe Planck can start selling black outfit with matching masks and baseball bats to his followers. Each purchase comes with a free soda can filled with cement and urine bag you can throw at police or Trump supporters!

Jim in MN's picture

Pink pussy hats with UA logos is all they should be allowed to sell.

toady's picture

Everything is a 50-50.

BullyBearish's picture

imagine waking up and POOF...there's no more:

~~goldman sux

~~fed

~~cia

~~msm

~~hollyweird

"What a wonderful world it would be..."

WTFRLY's picture

Haha 50/50? Jooz gonna JOO

Pool Shark's picture

50/50???!!!

I'll take those odds!

Ain't gonna be a shutdown; maybe a 'postponement,' but they WILL raise the debt ceiling.

The Spice must flow...

 

Stackers's picture

Any bets that the first thing Trump does not do when .gov shuts down is to order all national monuments to be barricaded?

SoDamnMad's picture

Are these war hatchet proof?

GunnerySgtHartman's picture

Shut 'er down!  Life will go on just fine!

roadhazard's picture

I think it already is.

pound the vix's picture

$3 Million a year for an analyst to tell you its a coin flip.

HardAssets's picture

Where do you sign up for that gig ?

Money_for_Nothing's picture

Trump can pick which agencies are open and which are closed. Obama kept all agencies open and sent in thugs to close open air monuments. Obama only won when Walmart helped him.

Catahoula's picture

I don't think it happens, but, if it does Trump has got to come out and blame obstructionist democrats. Saul Alynsky tactics work both ways

Falconsixone's picture

Haven't you heard? Trump changed the R. to a jiz soaked D. shhh...

Money_for_Nothing's picture

Notice the article won't tell you it is congress that has low approval rating. Trump's base is solidly behind him and would be willing to take a day off from work to run the alligators out of DC if he asked them to. Democrats are still advertising on Craigs list for mercenaries. If they don't get a good budget deal they run out of money they can borrow.

Jim in MN's picture

Dems are already out of money.  But Soros has billions.

Falconsixone's picture

But without the govt. free money handouts how will goldstool survive? Where do I place bets comrads?

fuckstar's picture

Like this is a bad thing? Let's give it a shot. 

Sanity Bear's picture

Shut the fucker down and keep it that way.

No more taxes. No more wars. No more regulatory strangulation.

What's not to like?

A. Boaty's picture

Go ahead. Shut it down. I dare you. Congress will get the blame.

onthedeschutes's picture

I see a 100% chance that Goldman is a lying, steaming pile of doghshit.

markar's picture

"Get whitey" campaigns everywhere, calls for impeachment, threat of war w/N. Korea--a gov't shutdown would be the icing on the cake for a complete collapse of civil society and civil war.

Prepare accordingly.

golem suchs nutsack's picture

Golem suchs my nutsack...

Rebelrebel7's picture

What makes me think that Congress will get its act together in just 12 days?

I'll take political survival for 500 Alex! 

Herdee's picture

Trump will take control of the government expenditure process under emergency Treasury Dep't. measures and then axe half the lazy bastards in every level of the federal government. That way he can get the money into the military and infrastructure. When the Whitehouse controls the budget and the Fed he'll get things done directly.

wholy1's picture

Only in my wildest dream . . . in another life.

Bernie Madolf's picture

NO BACK PAY THIS TIME !

Shut it down

ReturnOfDaMac's picture

There WILL be a shutdown, 1 week or 2.  Squabbling factions of Repubs can never agree on anything. Ever. Couldn't even kill ACA they ran on for 7 years.  So there will be no limits and they will kill the debt ceiling completely.  Everybody knows debt is not important when republicans are in charge!

DarthVaderMentor's picture

There will not be a government shutdown, except maybe a short show one for the flyover people to be misled as kubuku theater. The Globalist RINOs are now in control.

ReturnOfDaMac's picture

Exactly, show folks in flyover that we tried to control spending but couldn't keep our fingers out of the cookie jar.  Re-elect me and I'll go to washington and knock the hell out of the place or some such none-sense.  Works on 'em every, single, time.

johand inmywallet's picture

You mean our countries not in shut down mode now, could of fooled me!!!

Bill Melater's picture

50% chance? It is like tossing a coin ... It means Goldmen has not the least idea.

JailBanksters's picture

My expert opinion is ...

Maybe it will, Maybe it won't

It's more like, just tell them anything to get the name in the News.

There's a 50% the Earths going to be destroyed by a Meteor in the next 10 years.

Storm-Clouds's picture

Government shutdown?

You know the dead don't care!

Did the Virginia Cops shutdown?

Did the Fergeson Cops shutdown?

Did the Berkley Cops shutdown?

Did you notice a pattern?

The dead don't care....

William Dorritt's picture

Let the Govt live within our means, not the current 2x

Govt Takes in approx $300B a month in Tax Revenue

Govt needs approx $33B to service the debt

The only thing a govt shutdown demonstrates is that most of the Govt is completely unnecessary, which is why both parties freak out, they are blood sucking Vampires that have eliminated the Middle Class for pennies while making Trillions for their Masters.

Herdee's picture

The established old farts that are bankrupting America are stopping any change. They've got enough rope now to hang themselves.