Weekend Reading: Losing Faith?

Tyler Durden's picture

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Last week, I penned the following:

“Now, you would suspect the possibility of nuclear war might just be the catalyst to send markets reeling, but looking at the market’s reaction on Thursday, I suspect there will be t-shirts soon reading:

 

‘I survived the threat of nuclear war and the ‘great crash of 2017’ of 1.5%'”

Of course, as markets touched on their 50-dma, the algos kicked in hard on Monday morning sending the markets surging higher. The reason, according to the media, was the reduction in global risk as Donald Trump briefed Kim Jung-Un about the U.S.’s retaliatory response should North Korea decide to attack Guam.

I was able to acquire a copy:

And with that…. “NOMO NOKO” as Kim Jung-Un backed off his more aggressive posture, letting traders rush back into the markets to once again “BTFD.”

That excitement was short-lived.

On Wednesday, following a conflicted response by the White House to the Charlottesville, VA. protest, numerous CEO’s resigned from Trump’s economic council. The resignations eventually led to its full dismemberment.

Surprisingly, and as we have addressed in recent weeks, this was the catalyst that sparked a sharp decline on Thursday? Have investors “Lost The Faith?”

With President Trump embroiled in one entanglement after another and constrained by a deeply partisan legislature, the ability of the Administration to pass legislative agenda seems to be fading. 

The reality is this was the headline. Over the last couple of months, the markets have remained on a weekly “sell signal,” at a very high level, even as stock prices continued to struggle higher amid eroding internal measures. However, the break below the “accelerated advance trend line,” as noted, suggests the current correction could accelerate IF the markets don’t regain their footing by Monday.

One note of importance is that outside of the speculative enthusiasm of investors, there has been a continuing pressure in earnings as the lack of legislative agenda advancement is beginning to weigh on Q3 estimates.

Given the bulk of the upward push in earnings estimates since the election was based on hopes of tax reform/cuts and infrastructure spending, the realization such will not occur soon is elevating the “risk of disappointment.”  Without a driver to push economic growth higher, the market has likely priced in the majority of expectations.

The repricing of expectations could be fairly brutal. 

Just remember, the “running of the bulls” was the method to transport the bulls from the fields to the bull ring where they were killed later that evening.

As with the market, it’s great to be the “bull” until you get to the end of your run. 

Here’s what I am reading this weekend.


Politics/Fed/Economy


Thoughts On Long-Term Investing


Markets


Research / Interesting Reads


“While some might mistakenly consider value investing a mechanical tool for identifying bargains, it is actually a comprehensive investment philosophy that emphasizes the need to perform in-depth fundamental analysis, pursue long-term investment results, limit risk, and resist crowd psychology.” – Seth Klarman

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JLee2027's picture

I see success with Trump.  Only the tards see failure.

rmopf2010's picture

I've seen the movie in other EU countries MSM, public unions, YETs turning a good leader into a bad guy

Sorry it's too late, we've gone too far on the road to comunism 2.0

Only an act of God can save us ( I had hope on Trump )

Handful of Dust's picture
Protesters Storm Gov’t Building, Burn County Flag, Hoist ‘Antifa’ Flag

After left-wing protesters marched through downtown Minneapolis, Minnesota in response to last weekend’s demonstrations in Charlottesville, Virginia, they hoisted the flag of the violent left-wing group “Antifa,” raising it in front of the county’s government center.

http://www.cnsnews.com/blog/craig-bannister/protesters-storm-govt-buildi...

Jim in MN's picture

Such idiocy, and all planned to help crash the USA. 

Here, I found this at the Obama WH archives:

"One of the chief factors in progress is the destruction of special privilege. The essence of any struggle for healthy liberty has always been, and must always be, to take from some one man or class of men the right to enjoy power, or wealth, or position, or immunity, which has not been earned by service to his or their fellows. That is what you fought for in the Civil War, and that is what we strive for now."

--Teddy Roosevelt, archived at

https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/blog/2011/12/06/archives-president-teddy-roosevelts-new-nationalism-speech

 

DontGive's picture

You don't know how good we have it at the moment.

  1. High entertainment value - check
  2. Room Temperature IQ 'folks' going full-tard, more entertainment - check
  3. The more infighting, the less they can get anything done; even better - check
Peacefulwarrior's picture

4. A cowards resolve will go to any UN-Ethical extent to get or keep what they want CHECK

boattrash's picture

HoD, The city gave the cocksuckers permission to raise their flag.

MozartIII's picture

They even have their own flag???  Soro's must be the biggest flag purchaser in the world.

francis scott falseflag's picture

Why in the world would God want to save us?  We are as evil as Satan.  

Killing women and children and carpet bombing just so we can

continue to enjoy fine meals at expensive restaurants.

 

By now, God must hate us and is making us mad before He destroys us.

 

There's no other explanation for what's happening.  I'm going to

Walmart tomorrow for sackcloth and ashes.

Oldwood's picture

It's all relative.

I'm sure God has seen some pretty horrible shit. You give us far too much credit. Things can still get much much worse.

Seasmoke's picture

In Bizaro World perhaps.

RozKo's picture

Look ...^... Kittens in a hammock. 

Stan Smith's picture

    I never had any expectations that Obamcare was going to get repealed.   None.    Wished for, yes.   But there wasnt a chance in hell of that.   Blame Trump if you want, or Republicans in congress.    Remember, the Dems and Obama needed a large Senate majority -- and a procedural gimmick -- to get it passed to begin with,  and that was barely.    Short of a filibuster proof majority, your going to have to negotiate.   And at this point,  it appears the Dems will simply run out the clock or just bash the hell outta this WH until the next elections come around.

    Now, what will make me lose my shit is if they do NOTHING on taxes.    To me thats unfucking excusable.   Sorry, it just is.   I dont even care if its just moving the chains -- as opposed to going big or going home -- but this HAS to get done.    House plan, or WH plan, I dont give a shit.    But not even attempting to do anything isnt acceptable.   If Trump is the "Great Negotiator" he claims to be, this will get done to some degree, one way or the other.   

    We'll see.  

The Wedge's picture

"We'll see".

Well Stan, you should already "see". Forget what you want. Forget what you think should happen. Just look at it objectively. Look at it the track record. Over and over and over they say their going to do this or that and don't. At some point, Stan, you have to have a come to jesus moment. What's the old saying fool me ounce, shame on you, fool me twice shame on me. Well in this case it's fool me 279 times, shame on you, fool me 280 times....just keep fooling me cause clearly that's what I want.

Miffed Microbiologist's picture

It's difficult to negotiate with snakes. Especially with snakes that make a great living with the way things are. Taxes are draining us dry and I really have no hope this will be changed.

Sorry but it's just impossible to drain such a vast swamp by proper channels any longer. And to expect one man to do it is wishful thinking. I take no pleasure saying this. I've lost hope and have given up.

Miffed

francis scott falseflag's picture

Have a pizza and beer tonight.  It always makes you feel better.

redmudhooch's picture

Look around at whats happening.

Trump isn't going to save us.

We have to save ourselves.

Trump is just giving us a chance.

Don't give up brother, theres a lot happening that you can't see.

If Hillary had won, then yeah you could give up.

Trust me.

Oldwood's picture

It should be pretty obvious that Trump has no real power to negotiate anything as he has no real congressional support. They can make all the excuses they like, and most involve blaming Trump for not doing MOAR, but we know who is failing...all of them, and we know who to ultimately blame, and that is those who have set in those stuffed leather chaors for decades doing NOTHING. The height of hypocrisy is for them to blame Trump, that somehow he is too distracting or not forceful enough to MAKE them do the right thing.

We saw the republicans OWN government under Bush early on, and they did NOTHING. We have needed action on immigration, on taxes and and a myriad of other important issues and they did nothing, claiming their highest principle was "bipartisanship", that slippery little thing that means that nothing they do will be without progressive poison injected into its veins. And it is especially disgusting to see the progressives demanding bipartisanship as some deference to minority rights (they being the minority), only to see they jamb Obamacare down our throats with zero republican votes.

Republican insistence upon compromise has basically COMPROMISED our republic, allowing collectivist principles to invade and corrupt every aspect of our government policies and our economy in whole, and as we weaken due to the effects of this poison, they seek only moar of this poison as a remedy....republicans bowing while apologizing for what small impediments they might have erected along the way. Republicans NEVER stop apologizing. They resist yet always capitulate, demand compromise with the devil and then apologize for impeding progress to utopian hell. They have become our mentors of incremental surrender.

rejected's picture

But Stan,,, How will the new wars to MAGA be funded?

HRH Feant2's picture

I can see the headline: "Wall Street falls 5000 points on the day of the American Eclipse!"

francis scott falseflag's picture

Surely 'limit down' is less than 5000 points.

The Wedge's picture

Legislative hopes fading? Seriously? How can a zero percent chance fade? Or is it just the false perception fading that there was actually a chance. I just don't get how anyone could have thought that Trump could get anything through congress. It was never going to happen. It was never on the table. It was an easy prediction. I predicted long before Trump that they would never repeal Obamacare. The sad thing is that come mid terms, republican politicians will again promise to repeal and republican voters will again fall for it.

For those that have not figured it out yet: WE NO LONGER HAVE A FUNCTIONING DEMOCRACY. Trump is the canary in the coal mine not the savior or destroyer.

smacker's picture

"For those that have not figured it out yet: WE NO LONGER HAVE A FUNCTIONING DEMOCRACY. Trump is the canary in the coal mine not the savior or destroyer."

I'll go along with that.

Not clear yet if there's a solution which doesn't involve extreme violence.

The Wedge's picture

Think very slow motion train wreck. Violence is always par for the course. When governments weaken they tighten grip simply because that's the only option. We see it over and over, it's just the nature of government and power.

DontGive's picture

There has been blood, and more to come. Only issue is it's almost exlcusive to tax cattle; aside from a few political cases.

redmudhooch's picture

If they were as powerful as they would like you to think we wouldn't be here speaking freely.

We would also be unarmed. We are the majority.

francis scott falseflag's picture

It depends whether you think triage is a solution.

smacker's picture

Triage implies some sort of orderly solution taking place. I don't think it will.

I reckon "The Wedge" is closer to it: "a slow motion train wreck" with the med/high risk of full-on multiple crashes happening all over because the Leftists are already out of control and becoming ever more psychotic every day.

just my opinion ,,,

 

francis scott falseflag's picture

I have seen triage.  I have not seen a slomo train wreck.

smacker's picture

"I have not seen a slomo train wreck"

There's plenty around:

  • The global economy since 2008?
  • The Greek economy/society since about that time?
  • The European Union?
  • The office of US President since Leftists began trying to destroy Trump?
  • Trump's presidency?
  • Law and order?
  • American democracy?
  • Any chance of a working relationship between US <-> Russia/China?
  • Unfettered Islamist immigration into Europe and US?

 


redmudhooch's picture

Please remember those "leftists" you see on TV are a tiny minority.

They're just actors. Its an illusion to make you feel outnumbered and discouraged.

Don't believe it.

 

smacker's picture

"a tiny minority", yes at the moment.

"just actors", many or most are, but probably not all.

Those in the shadows organising these violent incidents (Soros, DNC, Kessler, cronies of Obola and Klingonista etc) are trying to provoke civil unrest on a wider scale and trying to paint the alt-right as the perps of it by using paid actors/thugs dressed up as Nazis and KKK for $25 per day who mingle with the alt-right peaceful protesters to visibly align themselves for the TV cams.

MSM is always there and ready to capture it on film as we saw in Charlottesville. Even the Mayor ordered the police to stand down to ratchet up the violence.

My current assumption is that many earlier incidents that have taken place have been organised and funded in a similar way for the same purpose.

 

evildimensions's picture

"With President Trump embroiled in one entanglement after another"

Entanglements contrived and concocted by the deep state media complex.

Herodotus's picture

He should veto everything until they decide to cooperate.

Dickweed Wang's picture

He should veto everything until they decide to cooperate.

 

Veto what??  Last time I checked the only thing those assholes in Dee See could come up with as far as "legislation" goes was a bill to put MORE sanctions on Russia.  Other than that they are all way to obsessed with trying to fuck Trump over to get ANYTHING done.  A lot of people (like me) have noticed and are getting totally fed up with their bullshit.  Death of the democratic party??  I think this is the start of the death of BOTH parties . . . not to mention the MSM.  They are all part of the same parasitic entity.

Peacefulwarrior's picture

And as soon as WE can't afford a Cheeseburger, 6-pack and the ability to shoot our testosterone on ZH... we will DO something

redmudhooch's picture

You get it.

Parties mean nothing anymore.

This is right vs wrong.

BetterRalph's picture

lots of justified vulgar slang here for the progressives and others on the polar opposite to take note of. One of the upvotes is mine bro. If you listen to the truckers on CB they have the same message. OUR MESSAGE.

goldoverbtc's picture

If india and china go to war, I wonder what Trump will do then?   Will anyone support the decision he makes?  The media has destroyed any hope of a positive presidency it seems.  It is sad that they only want a small group of people to be the leader of this country.

www.escapeamazon.com

 

ReturnOfDaMac's picture

Quit making fake news.  Look man, nobody and I mean NOBODY goes to war without us!

francis scott falseflag's picture

"If India and China go to war",

 

Fake news from the Kremlin to take your eye off the ball.

phoolish's picture

What ability to pass legislation?  I haven't seen anything from WH that has passed ... zero, zilch, nada.

Dickweed Wang's picture

Only the CONgress (legislative branch) can pass legislation - not the White House (executive branch).

francis scott falseflag's picture

Soon investor faith will be limited in the Tooth Fairy alone.

BetterRalph's picture

well it's easier to get the gold out of TEETH than the grey/brownish red hard quartz like rocks with dynamite

forgot the /sarc tag

Mon T's picture

Good work here Tylers. In all my years I have honestly never seen any analyst consistently call market highs and lows for a week like the guys at SHEPWAVE did this week. 

 

Good job keep it going.