Nomura: "Probability Of North Korean War Breaking Out Is 35%"

Tyler Durden's picture

The latest missile launch by North Korea on Tuesday will elevate tensions for some time, but it will be contained, writes Kwon Young Sun, a senior economist at Nomura International.

Quoted by Bloomberg, Kown writes that Tuesday's provocation has reignited market concerns just as tensions were seen easing through mid-August. As a result, "tensions between N.Korea and the U.S. reached levels unseen since 1994." He adds that another spike is plausible, considering the military drill between the U.S. and S.Korea is still ongoing.

Oddly enough, as we discussed earlier, despite the latest geopolitical shock, the South Korean stock market and currency were barely shaken. However, according to the Nomura strategist, unless the dollar keeps weakening, other drivers that could limit KRW’s strength include Korea’s relations with China, trade tensions with the U.S., local capital outflows and intervention by the authorities

More apropos to what is bother markets this morning, Kwon writes that "although it is hard to predict", three early warning signals may suggest imminent U.S. military action:

  • U.S. orders for evacuation of U.S. citizens in S.Korea
  • U.S. military builds up large scale force near the Korean peninsula
  • U.S. elevates defense readiness condition to level 3 from level 4

Finally, he writes that the "probability for war ultimately breaking out on the Korean peninsula is about 35%", although the number is most likely to change going forward.

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Nutflush60's picture

Odd of war 35%, "That number is likely to change going ftorward". Real value added work there

Sanity Bear's picture

That's the intellectual's method of saying they have no idea WTF is going to happen, but feel like they should know because they are just that smart and important.

John Kich's picture

World War 3 already started, if you don't know it happened open your eyes...

MFL5591's picture

The American people once again take the War Bait!  God damn fools!

yomutti2's picture

Yeah, the 35% may change going forward.  Duh. It's either going to increase to 100% or drop to 0%. That's pretty much the nature of any probability regarding a binary event.

Mr 9x19's picture

what you don't understand with your faggot avatar is what is doing NK, what game it is playing.


the goal, for all those idiots cock sucker who do not get it, is to display worldwide the inability of the usa as military superpower.
anyone with history research will realize usa has not won a single war over almost a century in some conditions ( by themselves, for the ww2 especially )

if usa budge a fucking nail on NK, china wipe usa from the globe,
NK will never starts a war, it is all about poking the old fart with a wooden stick  " you cant move, POK you can't move  POK you cant move."

it is a brain hack to usa.

usa is loosing  at lightspeed pace on all fronts,  china/NK putting a military humiliation on the usa. 
NK is a nation that just want to developp its own defenses... period.

usa drones never violated aerian territories of others counteries over time ?
and you whine about a balistic empty shell going above your head ?
do you fucking know how many satelites usa set  just above your fucking fuck face ?

get lost.

Fiscal.Enema's picture

How else are we going to get rid of 20+ trillion in debt? This is a banker war coming. Iran will be delt with too.

Newsboy's picture

This is actually status-quo. Trump's plan was to get China to Sanction N.Korea in UNSC, along with Russia, then nibble away at China and Russia with sanctions, but suddenly, N.Korea is making him lose face after he hits China and Russia. I wonder why. Flying this sucker all the way over the Japanese islands makes the point that an EMP could have gone off at any point of that. N.Korea is still giving the same offer. "Stop fucking with us with military exercises and we'll stop fucking with you by testing nukes and missiles." Same damned offer.

ReturnOfDaMac's picture

American so-called "leadership" just doesn't get it: "you can no longer bomb, bully, and boss everybody around".  This blatant, complete, and total humiliation of the organge one, with all of his fire-and-fury bluster, is being exposed for the paper tiger it is.  No military solution here.  If you have any courage, or sense, you will control your stupid emotional impulses, sit down with the fat kid and address his security concerns and ours and reach an agreement. 

We have proven to be NOT trustworthy.  So give up on asking them to give up their only defense from our aggression.  They have nukes and they are keeping them.  Get used to it. They are not stupid and they will not give up their only defense from us.  Neither would we if in their position.  So try to do something very hard, control your emotions and "think" for a change.

Mr 9x19's picture



finally someone who understand.


i'm glad to have  read you.

ReturnOfDaMac's picture

There are literally hundreds of millions of us in the US who completely "get it". The simple fact is, we have lost control of our government. Politicians now pick their constituents instead of the other way around. They are beholden to MIC and big multi-national corps and don't really give a rats behind what we the people think anymore. They've got it rigged so that they get re-elected. Trump was the first to break through by showing both so-called parties how completely fed-up we are with this whole charade but the orange one is no savior. He is caving in to war mongerers and we the people are going to have yell LOUD AND CLEAR that we are having none of it.

the cork's picture

YOU're as stupid as he is.

the cork's picture

Who told you that, libturd?

We can still bomb the shit out of this guy.

We're gonna do it too.

The little cock sucker signed his own death warrant when he threatened to nuke the US, Guam, S. Korea, Japan etc.

Dumshits like you would rather see him hit one of those targets first and then decide what to do.

Hope he hit's your trailer house first, snowflake.

See if that changes your libturd loony tune.


BandGap's picture

Any thoughts that China might be pushing this button? They have a truckload of woes to divert attention from, as well.

Just seems so contrived that this little asshole keeps poking. He has to know what is going to happen and it won't be good.

CheapBastard's picture

I'll wait for CNN's predictions.



Grimaldus's picture

Yes, China IS pushing that button.


jerseychris's picture

Japanese odds making somewhat suspect over the last century.

jerseychris's picture

Japanese odds making somewhat suspect over the last century.

GUS100CORRINA's picture

Nomura: "Probability Of North Korean War Breaking Out Is 35%"

My response: Must be a lot of people short because they keep piling on with MORE disaster news.

skbull44's picture

"...will be contained..."
Where have we heard this before?

Doom and Dust's picture

Probability of Nomura pumping up their risk assessment because they love the volatility:100%.

The war odds are well under 1%.

assistedliving's picture

under 1%?  Really?  on top of the assasin talk, there is another "surgical strike" scenario in the offing of thier nuke facility.  

1% seems a bit low w/ two blowhards facing off yes?

Thordoom's picture

I do not want to be the one naughty party pooper but i heared those bad North Koreans  said that they are ready to deescalate the situation if US stop harrasing them with annual war games  with htheir slaves SK which the peace loving US has  completely rejected over and over. The Us doesn't do negotiations or diplomacy at all. You have to surrender and accept anythign they order you.

attila404's picture

On the other hand, do you believe what NK says?

cherry picker's picture

Yes NK is telling the truth.  USA is there and all over causing problems.  Time to bring them back as Texas needs them more.

Thordoom's picture

Certainly more than US government which track record is nothing but lies and you even after Iraq 1 Iraq 2 ,Libya, Syria still going with the lies. People like that  are the " good Germans" which went along with propaganda. There is virtualy no difference.

jughead's picture

So basically, if I told you that I would quit throwing rocks and firecrackers at your house if you quit your pistol training and all exercise, you'd agree?  

yogibear's picture

Japan just has to shoot a missile across NK. 

Prepaid's picture

Probability of the NK nonsense continuing? 100% The world is a stage and it needs Customer's. Anything you see on the world Stage is only a surprise to the Sheep who swallow this Slop!

pc_babe's picture

How you like ur KimChee .. Flied or Roasted?

jughead's picture

If there is a 35% chance of rain I don't bother with an umbrella...just sayin. 

Wild tree's picture

I've seen it rain with a 10% forecast. Being wrong about rain is OK; being wrong about nuclear/EMP bombs raining.......

Byrond's picture

If China allied with NK in the event that war did break out, the world would change drastically. I can see it happening. After you assemble junk for the US day after day, you get to thinking about change. 

Sizzurp's picture

There is too much momentum now for war not to happen. It's already happening. For all we know Trump has already taken out a few of Kim's subs.

Byrond's picture

It does seem to be going a particular direction. 

overmedicatedundersexed's picture

war there ?or civil war here?? which has a higher chance?..NWO reptiles perfer numba 2.

Byrond's picture

Another path of thought, the US may be much more reliant upon China than people realize. If China wanted to conquer a bunch of the world (or take over much more of the global economy and territory), they might just go ahead and do that. NK is kind of like the global checkmate. If we do bomb NK, it's all over as we know it. But is that a bad thing in the long run, in the instance that China or NK miscalculate? 

Dg4884's picture

35%.  That's oddly specific.  Although it would be cool to see a ninja fight on the order of 10s of thousands.

TheNuclearGenie's picture

When are we going to have the limited nuclear war as advocated by Henry Kissinger already in 1958? We can now see how far ahead of his time the man was. We need to use tactical nuclear weapons on strategic military targets in North Korea to show this madman that he can no longer threaten the free world without consequences. Firing a ICBM missile over another country is a major act of war and needs to be racted to in some manner the includes the use of nuclear force. This has gone long enough. If we dont show that we are willing and capable of engaging in a limited nuclear war then this will soon end in a major nuclear war. Either way, this is the road we a going down on. This disaster has been in the making for decades now. Its time to end it with minimal casualties.

overmedicatedundersexed's picture

you appear crazy..but within your ideas there is sanity..the world for too long fights standard wars of serf vs serf..take out NK leadership and shut down a dictatorship it's main weakness is nobody can act without direct orders from mr Kim.

Wild tree's picture

True that OM.  Flying under radar by sub lauched drone strike with Hellfire would be my first choice, second would be by sniper. His replacement would not be so willing to be China's proxy, nor kill his relatives with anti-aircraft guns.

Of course, there is always the CIA. After so long of toppling leaders, surely they have a few ideas (HA, and don't call me Shirley).

Cutter's picture

Faulty assessment. The war has already begun. Yesterday was the first shot.

It will be continuing and uncontrolled escalation from here on.

Crusader75's picture

Ridiculous, it's 36%.

Able Ape's picture

WAR?  Hell yeah, buddy!  I'll gladly give up a limb or two for cheap ribbons or "carnival prize" medals to wear proudly on my chest or whatever is left of it!... USA! USA! USA!  Hey, I need somebody to change my catheter and my shit bag.....

Sambo's picture

My guess is that the real Kim Jong Un is hiding in Beijing or Moscow. 

If that is indeed the case, then the probability of war is now 100%.

Give Me Some Truth's picture

We host a major war scrimmage with South Korea; North Korea shoots a missile over Japan. I guess this too will pass. 

Of all the factors considered and discussed here, I think one trumps all others: We simply cannot afford a war with North Korea. Yes, we could just ramp up the printing press, suspend the debt ceiling, fund Harvey relief, ramp up in Afghanistan, build the wall, provide a tax cut, rebuild our infrastructure, but at some point going from $20 trillion in admitted debt to $30 trillion in - what? - two years - is going to be noticed by somebody. A Great Depression and/or or hyperinflation will descend on a country where already 78 percent of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck.

In such a world, a sane person doesn't take on another trillion-dollar purchase.

sunny's picture

Key phrase there is "sane person".