Irma Turning Into Monster Hurricane: "Highest Windspeed Forecasts I've Ever Seen"

Tyler Durden's picture

Hurricane Irma continues to strengthen much faster than pretty much any computer model predicted as of yesterday or even this morning.  Per the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) latest update, Irma is currently a Cat-3 storm with sustained winds of 115 mph but is expected to strengthen to a devastating Cat-5 with winds that could top out at 180 mph or more.  Here is the latest from the NHC as of 5PM EST:

Irma has become an impressive hurricane with intense eyewall convection surrounding a small eye.  Satellite estimates continue to rapidly rise, and the Dvorak classifications from both TAFB & SAB support an initial wind speed of 100 kt.  This is a remarkable 50-kt increase from yesterday at this time.

 

Irma continues moving west-northwestward, now at about 10 kt. There has been no change to the forecast philosophy, with the hurricane likely to turn westward and west-southwestward over the next few days due to a building ridge over the central Atlantic.  At long range, however, model guidance is not in good agreement on the strength of the ridge, resulting in some significant north-south differences in the global models.  I am inclined to stay on the southwestern side of the model guidance, given the rather consistent forecasts of the ECMWF and its ensemble.  In addition, the strongest members of the recent ensembles are on the southern side on the consensus, giving some confidence in that approach.

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/2100Z 17.3N  34.8W  100 KT 115 MPH

12H  01/0600Z 17.8N  36.2W  105 KT 120 MPH

24H  01/1800Z 18.2N  38.3W  105 KT 120 MPH

36H  02/0600Z 18.3N  40.7W  105 KT 120 MPH

48H  02/1800Z 17.9N  42.9W  105 KT 120 MPH

72H  03/1800Z 16.8N  47.5W  110 KT 125 MPH

96H  04/1800Z 16.0N  52.0W  115 KT 130 MPH

120H  05/1800Z 16.5N  56.5W  120 KT 140 MPH

As of now, Irma remains in the far eastern Atlantic ocean and is moving west at roughly 11.5 mph.  Based on current projections, the storm will make its first landfall in the eastern Caribbean sometime toward the middle of next week.

IRMA

Longer term computer models still vary widely but suggest that Irma will make landfall in the U.S. either in the Gulf of Mexico or Florida.  Meteorological Scientist Michael Ventrice of the Weather Channel is forecasting windspeeds of up to 180 mph, which he described as the "highest windspeed forecasts I've ever seen in my 10 yrs of Atlantic hurricane forecasting."

In a separate tweet, Ventrice had the following troubling comment: "Wow, a number of ECMWF EPS members show a maximum-sustained windspeed of 180+mph for #Irma, rivaling Hurricane #Allen (1980) for record wind"

The Weather Channel meteorologist also calculated the odds for a landfall along the eastern seaboard at 30%.

Meanwhile, the Weather Channel has the "most likely" path of Irma passing directly over Antigua, Puerto Rico and Domincan Republic toward the middle of next week.

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HoyeruNew's picture

no, no no, My beloved Orange Buffoon said there is no such thing as Glabal Warming! And let's piss off Mexico too next!

Uncle Sugar's picture

Antifa is a bunch of fags of which I'm sure you're one

Buster Cherry's picture

 

Somebody needs to vandalize your ass with a size 12 boot.

Son of Loki's picture

Boots are for stepping on throats.

 

Where's my tiki torch?!

azusgm's picture

...and the "Blood and Soil" flag?

...and John McCain chumming up to his Ukranian NAZI buddy?

shankster's picture

That means it could hit Big Haiti (Miami FL). What a fugged up mess that would be.

Ms No's picture

As long as the Clinton foundation doesn't show up they will probably be alright.  In addition to ripping the operation of blind, Clinton got a child trafficker out of prison during that last episode.  Then he got them to drop the charges.  That is trafficker number two that he is tied to after Epstein, where the FBI verified that Clinton was constantly on Epsteins flight logs. 

http://www.commonsenseevaluation.com/2016/11/03/wikileaks-exposes-convicted-child-abductor-connection-clintons/

Then this Zionist shows up.  CNN is the only one that had his picture.  Are they ever not dead in the middle of shit?  http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/americas/02/15/haiti.legal.adviser.charges/index.html

http://www.christianpost.com/news/haiti-police-u-s-baptist-team-tried-to-take-children-before-43688/

Also these kids weren't all orphans.  They lied to their parents and stole them.  https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/clinton-brokers-deal-over-haiti-orphan-abductions-v63ld395r7b

http://www.cleveland.com/nation/index.ssf/2010/02/haiti_missionary_leader_left_t.html

 

Wild tree's picture

Clintons/Clinton Foundation = EVILL. What goes around, comes around. They had better invest in fireproof longjohns, not that it would help any.

Doom and Dust's picture

Girl named monica petersen was looking into that. Whatever happened to her?

Ms No's picture

So she worked to prevent human trafficking, criticized the Clintons and then started asking questions about Haiti sex trafficking.  Then ends up dead.  Unbelievable!  I have always thought that there were likely children on board Epsteins planes or shipped into his island to be sold.  They never even ransacked that place and dug into its history.  Some of those girls thought there were captive people there.  You just know they were running children somewhere.  The CIA wouldn't care, they are likely in on it.  A lot of kids are missing in the US too.  There are probably rich pedophile psychos out there that literally killed thousands of children, that are supplied by people like them. 

NickPeeMe's picture

Climate Change is a hoax, Science is a liberal plot, Trumps is not stupid, Ivanka is not a cunt, Physics is phoney.

Buster Cherry's picture

Somebody needs to vandalize your ass with a size 12 boot.

Ms No's picture

Apparently you guys believe our giant sun, that giant ball of plasma and gas that our planet and solar system revolve around, doesn't affect our temperatures.  Neanderthals were literally smarter than that.  Congratulations.  I guarantee that five year old knuckle draggers that were drawing pictures of the sun in caves understood that is where most planetary heat and weather comes from.  That's silly though.  I am sure all of these globalists with their power grabbing legislation and intentionally overcomplicated calculations and proven fraudulent data know better.

 

JRobby's picture

Every aspect of society is corrupt. This includes scientists. This has been accomplished to perfection over the past 100 years by replacing God with Money. Once you get a majority of people that will do anything for money, you have them.

Of course in the past, God was used to control people by corrupt "rulers". Now it's money.

 

 

any_mouse's picture

"Climate Change is a hoax, Science is a liberal plot,"

Climate Change is fascist state plot. FIFY.

Science has little to do with Manmade Global Warming theory.

Ivanka is a cunt.

Accounting has Generally Accepted Accounting Practices.

Real Science should not have generally accepted (settled) scientific theories.

Question Everything. Trust No One. The Truth is Out There.

You defile the flag of Kekistan. The true flag has a green background.

ShrNfr's picture

The last 10 times this happened, Stockman said the market would crash and Faber said he liked gold.

Tiwin's picture

Its not a lock until Gartman spews

There's picture

The Religious Right will attribute the apocalypse by water to the behavior of the twitter waffler. 

Korprit_Phlunkie's picture

I'm the religious right and that doesn't even make any sense. There is no there, there.

SHADEWELL's picture

HOuston....we may have a problem...

If this fugger slammed into the tattered remains of astro city...what the frig would that look like?

..gone with the wind

shankster's picture

I used to live there (happy that's over)...it wont look much different than it always has.

Automatic Choke's picture

It used to be a swamp.    Now it is a swamp covered with asphalt, with freeways to block water flow.   Turns it into a "cement pond" in the jargon of the Beverly Hillbillies.

 

Nobodys Home's picture

Well the first thing you know old Jeb(d)'s a millionaire.

In Ze No's picture

Ron Paul lives there.  It can't be all bad.

Maximeme Q's picture

SILENCE!!! Never, EVER speak or write those four words in that sequence again.

#notriggering

Nobodys Home's picture

I don't know nuthin bout birthin no babys!

azusgm's picture

Put a knife under the bed to cut the pain in two.

knotjammin2's picture

I liken Hurricane Harvey is to the US economy as the Iceberg was to the Titanic.  Houston and it's oil industry being shut down can very well trigger the crash we have all been bitching about not having occured for the last six years. 

Son of Loki's picture

I'm surprised it has not reacted more then it has. Of course, to the east and west coast mentality, nothing exists in between. When I called my friend in NYC who lives in a very nice very expensive three story brick house, he asked me if Houston was "near the ocean.'

"near the ocean?!"

wtf?!

Not even asking "near the Gulf."

He's a top lawyer there also so it informs me how out of touch even very smart NYC people are with much of the south and middle of the nation, even geographically.

I guess reading NYT all the time does that to one's brain.

 

 

JRobby's picture

How the fuck did the stupid jerk off get through law school? Or undergrad for that matter?

What kind of law? Corporate? Does he know you mention him on this forum?

skinwalker's picture

Worst hurricane since Lehman!

in_xanadu_did_kubla_khan's picture

Sooooo...markets down, gold up, Cryptos up after Irma?

motoXdude's picture

I had an Aunt Irma... total BITCH!, but she always said she wanted to go to Texas! (That was before we stapled dog ears on her and took her to the Vet to have her "put-down")

Uncle Sugar's picture

Gartman just said it's definitely going to hit Texas so we're safe.

Ignorance is bliss's picture

Hurricane Irma has nothing to do with global warming. The truth is God does not like what the U.S. has become.

mrjinx007's picture

It amazes me how people put words in their god's mouth.  

Automatic Choke's picture

Nothing to do with global warming or with god (any of them).

For the first time in twelve years, we have really low wind shear when at the time of peak tropical water temps.  Makes it really easy for storms to grow. 

knotjammin2's picture

Yep.  This is one of those storms where everything is coming together.  I looked at the radar image from this morning and Irma looks like a much more mature storm to be so far out from the Caribbean.  She's wound up pretty tight to be as young as she is. 

Proofreder's picture

Indeed

Irma went from 979 mb to 967 between 11am EDT and 5pm - That's 6 hours vs 15 hours for the same pressure drop in Harvey.  Irma was supposed to level out as cooler water lies ahead, but a warm pool of 29° ocean water will soon be in Irma's path and further deepening of the storm is predicted.  Very symmetric storm, prone to explosive growth.

Been watching these monsters since Andrew, and this one will be bad IF the islands don't tear it apart or it catches a break in the ridge and heads for Bermuda.

However, the European model has been very accurate this year, especially calling the loop in the Harvey track and subsequent movement, and takes Irma into the Gulf of Houston.

A note to all - you have the same satellite data and pictures as the so-called forecasters.  Build some experience and learn to roll your own predictions -  Naaaah - too much work, for sure.

Onward, through the Fog ...

stormsailor's picture

atlantic hurricanes have been my hobby for more than 50 years, particularly cape storms.  for years now they have been sheared apart or turned north, so its been a slow decade, and proof, yes, those models are becoming more accurate and i have had access to reports and the internet since 1985. track them myself with graph paper, etc since the 60's. witht he internet data is making tracking a breeze, 3 hr reports since about 94 at nhc, and nws with sat data and dropsonde and av reports. wunderground and us  boat have some great  data.

 

in the mid 80's i tracked the most damaging storms history striking in what i call the pocket, florida east coast up to new bern nc.  on a map it looks like the pocket of a catchers mitt.  cape storms that come through the "gate" or strike zone for this area are 60 degrees west and 15 to 25 degrees north.

irma is coming through the gate on the low side but with an upward spin so it could come into the pocket.

hugo and andrew looked simular of course millions of variables could alter that and normally do

 

 

 

 

JRobby's picture

So Houston has drawn the wrath of God? Can't be because it's HQ for Exxon Mobil?

Tiwin's picture

Its September for chrissakes. This is every , every every year.

Its the Cape verde season

Hurricane season within a hurricane season.

Francis Marx's picture

Im sure you are right in some way. But hard to say how God works out punishments.

Typically, like Haiti, he just leaves and the devils move in.

And the devils have been moving in here for sure....

azusgm's picture

I've been praying for more than a year for Him to shut down Planned Parenthood on the Gulf Freeway with a meteor or lightning or something obviously supernatural so that there will be no mistake.

mrjinx007's picture

CNN: This is even worse than Trump'd Twiter storms!

VegasBob's picture

Maybe it will take out Washington, DC...

shankster's picture

I like your optimism, we can always hope so.

Umh's picture

That would be hilarious. If she can just meander up the Chesapeake and the the Potomac and just sit there until all the swamp creatures drown.

nmewn's picture

Again, if Irma fucks up my vacation I'm gonna be pissed. Bomb throwing, Antifa killing, mad-dog-don't-give-a-shit-about-anything pissed. 

I'll need something else to do with my time so, if the godless commies don't want to die a horrible agonizing death they better pray to their Gaia or Gore or Obamessiah or some old loser crone walking in the woods that Irma gets xer ass above 20 north or below 15 north.

I'm jus fuckin sayin.

Anteater's picture

The only solution is a virkin sacrifice! We must kidnap Milo

after his anarchy pitch, cover him in garland flowers and a

rainbow loincloth, then drop him into the eye just at sunset

from 35,000 feet. The Power of Christ compels you!