Irma Turning Into Monster Hurricane: "Highest Windspeed Forecasts I've Ever Seen"

Tyler Durden's picture

Hurricane Irma continues to strengthen much faster than pretty much any computer model predicted as of yesterday or even this morning.  Per the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) latest update, Irma is currently a Cat-3 storm with sustained winds of 115 mph but is expected to strengthen to a devastating Cat-5 with winds that could top out at 180 mph or more.  Here is the latest from the NHC as of 5PM EST:

Irma has become an impressive hurricane with intense eyewall convection surrounding a small eye.  Satellite estimates continue to rapidly rise, and the Dvorak classifications from both TAFB & SAB support an initial wind speed of 100 kt.  This is a remarkable 50-kt increase from yesterday at this time.

 

Irma continues moving west-northwestward, now at about 10 kt. There has been no change to the forecast philosophy, with the hurricane likely to turn westward and west-southwestward over the next few days due to a building ridge over the central Atlantic.  At long range, however, model guidance is not in good agreement on the strength of the ridge, resulting in some significant north-south differences in the global models.  I am inclined to stay on the southwestern side of the model guidance, given the rather consistent forecasts of the ECMWF and its ensemble.  In addition, the strongest members of the recent ensembles are on the southern side on the consensus, giving some confidence in that approach.

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/2100Z 17.3N  34.8W  100 KT 115 MPH

12H  01/0600Z 17.8N  36.2W  105 KT 120 MPH

24H  01/1800Z 18.2N  38.3W  105 KT 120 MPH

36H  02/0600Z 18.3N  40.7W  105 KT 120 MPH

48H  02/1800Z 17.9N  42.9W  105 KT 120 MPH

72H  03/1800Z 16.8N  47.5W  110 KT 125 MPH

96H  04/1800Z 16.0N  52.0W  115 KT 130 MPH

120H  05/1800Z 16.5N  56.5W  120 KT 140 MPH

As of now, Irma remains in the far eastern Atlantic ocean and is moving west at roughly 11.5 mph.  Based on current projections, the storm will make its first landfall in the eastern Caribbean sometime toward the middle of next week.

IRMA

Longer term computer models still vary widely but suggest that Irma will make landfall in the U.S. either in the Gulf of Mexico or Florida.  Meteorological Scientist Michael Ventrice of the Weather Channel is forecasting windspeeds of up to 180 mph, which he described as the "highest windspeed forecasts I've ever seen in my 10 yrs of Atlantic hurricane forecasting."

In a separate tweet, Ventrice had the following troubling comment: "Wow, a number of ECMWF EPS members show a maximum-sustained windspeed of 180+mph for #Irma, rivaling Hurricane #Allen (1980) for record wind"

The Weather Channel meteorologist also calculated the odds for a landfall along the eastern seaboard at 30%.

Meanwhile, the Weather Channel has the "most likely" path of Irma passing directly over Antigua, Puerto Rico and Domincan Republic toward the middle of next week.

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nmewn's picture

Its really the only way! I mean, aside from dropping a nuke (or Hillary) into the middle of it...lol.

Being a Native Floridian, I like to screw around with mother nature hysteric/apologists, its pretty early in a hurricanes "life cycle" for this intensity, they usually die back over the colder Atlantic then get chopped up by wind shear. 

We'll see, by the way I have travelers insurance, so, I'll have money for the bomb making ;-)

espirit's picture

Labor Day or shortly thereafter is prime time for the mean season.

Think I'll make vac in N.D. last until Irma has passed.

Cathay Kid's picture

i am here now and wont think of leaving until Oct. 1.

nmewn's picture

Yeah, thats part of "the thing", too much going on in October with birthdays, anniversaries, annual ball game with friends from down south to push it out to Oct. 

We knew going in Labor Day was the high point for our region but on the calendar around this time always works out best for us.

We were discussing August this year but this one is locked in, so I'm sayin overly complex, intricately designed, easily escapable communist death trap was planned against us ;-)

Nobodys Home's picture

It's weather warfare! Or is it mortgage warfare" HARP or HAARP? Assholes!

aardvarkk's picture

Shit, I am leaving ND for Orlando third week in Sept, so Irma better be done PMSing by then.

cheech_wizard's picture

What a great way to expend unused ordinance.

Drop a few moabs on it.

Standard Disclaimer: The U.S. has exceptionally failed in it's "War on _______________ (you fill in the blank)". Time for a war on hurricanes!

HumanMan's picture

Now I'm curious...what would a few moabs do to an organized storm? Serious question. 

Nobodys Home's picture

I thought you said: "Aside from dropping a nuke FOR Hillary....before I clarified my reading. DAMMIT!

just the tip's picture

what the fuck is a virkin?

nmewn's picture

A Swedish porn star, I think ;-)

Storm-Clouds's picture

Is Hillary a virkin????

grunk's picture

Hillary = Swedish porn star?

 

You should be banned from the Interwebs forever.

RayKu's picture

That's just wrong on so many levels.

Ms No's picture

Maybe its a type of pubic wig but instead of having hair it's supposed to make you look bald.

stormsailor's picture

yeah man,  if it comes through 60 degrees from 15 to 25 north watch out for your top-knot pilgrim.

shimmy's picture

These are the highest windspeed forecasts I've ever seen in my 10 yrs of Atlantic hurricane forecasting.  is another retiree candidate.

 

10 years in a period of low hurricane activity! That's like a guy losing his virginity and saying the pussy he just humped was the best pussy out there. 

These climate change freaks (and you can be sure he said that to try and push the climate change fear mongering bullshit) are beyond pathetic. 

Ms No's picture

That and we are talking about a forcast, so those wind speeds don't exist. 

DarthVaderMentor's picture

"That's like a guy losing his virginity and saying the pussy he just humped was the best pussy out there. "

 

and that folks, is the most accurate statement on this topic yet.......the forecaster is a "virgin hurricane snowlfake" triggered by a real pissed off woman named Irma....LOL

RDouglas's picture

That's fucking beautiful man.

Ms No's picture

The globalist global warmists are going to have a field day with this.  The pollution released from the first storm is going to be huge.  There are submerged old superfund sites and 100 years of oil and chemical industry.  I wouldn't even be surprised if the water catches fire.  When global warmists forced the country to start chasing the unicorn of carbon dioxide all real chemical pollution took a back seat.  They essentially left no time and money for real pollution.  Fracking and all the latest radiation leaks are all happening under the strongest environmental regulation imaginable FOR CARBON.  How screwed is that?

I don't usually post faggy facebook type stuff but this is funny.  I came across it looking for the fire ant video.  These two idiots find a 15 ft injured white shark.  Its bleeding everywhere, thrashing and certainly drawing other sharks.  Like typical tools they get right up to it.  One guy wants the other to get up closer for a selfie.  The guy never makes it, gets gaffed three times by a stingray.  ROFL

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-79oB38Jhjk 

nmewn's picture

Fucking faggot...



More

Note: There is a bias correction applied to this forecast data. It could very well be overcooking the model's forecast intensity.

youshallnotkill's picture

https://stats.stackexchange.com/questions/31253/what-is-bias-correction

To quote:

"Sometimes an estimator can be biased. This merely means that although it may be a good estimator, its expected or average value is not exactly equal to the parameter. The difference between the estimator's average and the true parameter value is called the bias. When an estimator is known to be biased, it is sometimes possible, by other means, to estimate the bias and then modify the the estimator by subtracting the estimated bias from the original estimate. This procedure is called bias correction."

One more thing: If you estimate a calamity like a hurrican you'd rather overestimate the danger than underestimate it. After all lives hang in the balance.

Umh's picture

Which is why so many people don't believe a word they say.

youshallnotkill's picture

Ahm, just to be clear, "estimator" in this blurb does not refer to a human, but a value that comes out of a model that may have some systemic bias.

redc1c4's picture

the last 10 years have been remarkably quiet, hurricain wise, so spare me the hype.

nmewn's picture

12yrs I think, which is slightly off Al Bores prediction of Armageddon Super Storms EVERY YEAR striking the US mainland...so...SEND MONEY NOW OR YOU HAVE NO HUMANITY!!!

The lives of ebola squirrels, zika parrots, orphans, puppies & kittens stuck in trees depend on it...which is another thing...has anyone ever found the skeleton of a cat stuck in a tree?

I thought not, why is that? ;-)

Nobodys Home's picture

Because I have dedicated my life to rescuing cats in trees. Ask my neighbor Debbie Shey that made fun of me for rescuing her cat in my back yard. She watched the entire incident and then made fun of me. I think she wanted me.

Umh's picture

They come down all by themselves. Usually it looks like a barely controlled fall, but their feet stay in contact with the tree.

Francis Marx's picture

Im telling ya, its going to go into the gulf again.

autofixer's picture

Joe Bastardi explained all of this today. The last 12 years have been very calm, so so much for the worst in 10 years hype.  The actual info is there on Weatherbell.com if anyone is interested in facts.  

youshallnotkill's picture

If you were interested in facts you'd knew that stronger but fewer storms is exactly what most meteorologists expected.

just the tip's picture

and the clinton foundation lubing up the wheels.

Antigua bend over.

Puerto Rico  bend over.

Domincan Republic bend over.

hope this doesn't effect the caymans.  not many kids named ivan on that island.

Nobodys Home's picture

We at The Clinton Foundation are dedicated to helping these innocent, needy children! Mmmm, yummy. Tee Hee!

PGR88's picture

What would happen if a nuclear bomb was dropped in the middle of it?

espirit's picture

If it was over Puerto Rico, probably have a farewell party.

Nobodys Home's picture

It would probably save us a few bucks. Nuke the fvcker!

Tiwin's picture

52 inches of radioactive rain.

onthedeschutes's picture

Oh shit...heading to Whole Foods now to help clear the shelves.

Nobodys Home's picture

Thanks for helping me survive Irma Mr. Bezos.

Nobodys Home's picture

Sad but it is....I'd rather call it Bullshit though :)

Storm-Clouds's picture

Bullshit by Bezos!!!!

Nothing is on sale!!!!

Hit it after the golf course.

The dead wanted to try some of the cut fruit crap! Why? They are dead!

No observation of sales!

Sale old shit different day....

Like guaranteed 2 day delivery....

Well not exactly????

Same Bezos same old story.....

wisehiney's picture

Time to get a little closer to the exit?

stormsailor's picture

maybe, us carolina boys know you guys have been hit for years and knocking those huge storms down, we got your back man 

NickPeeMe's picture

Looks like Irma is already a class 7 hurricane. Lordy!

Shpedly's picture

If we all chip in a couple Bitcoins we can fund the movie. "Cat 7, End of the World".

michigan independant's picture

kwest is my first thought and best guess. Run