Irma Turning Into Monster Hurricane: "Highest Windspeed Forecasts I've Ever Seen"

Tyler Durden's picture

Hurricane Irma continues to strengthen much faster than pretty much any computer model predicted as of yesterday or even this morning.  Per the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) latest update, Irma is currently a Cat-3 storm with sustained winds of 115 mph but is expected to strengthen to a devastating Cat-5 with winds that could top out at 180 mph or more.  Here is the latest from the NHC as of 5PM EST:

Irma has become an impressive hurricane with intense eyewall convection surrounding a small eye.  Satellite estimates continue to rapidly rise, and the Dvorak classifications from both TAFB & SAB support an initial wind speed of 100 kt.  This is a remarkable 50-kt increase from yesterday at this time.

 

Irma continues moving west-northwestward, now at about 10 kt. There has been no change to the forecast philosophy, with the hurricane likely to turn westward and west-southwestward over the next few days due to a building ridge over the central Atlantic.  At long range, however, model guidance is not in good agreement on the strength of the ridge, resulting in some significant north-south differences in the global models.  I am inclined to stay on the southwestern side of the model guidance, given the rather consistent forecasts of the ECMWF and its ensemble.  In addition, the strongest members of the recent ensembles are on the southern side on the consensus, giving some confidence in that approach.

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/2100Z 17.3N  34.8W  100 KT 115 MPH

12H  01/0600Z 17.8N  36.2W  105 KT 120 MPH

24H  01/1800Z 18.2N  38.3W  105 KT 120 MPH

36H  02/0600Z 18.3N  40.7W  105 KT 120 MPH

48H  02/1800Z 17.9N  42.9W  105 KT 120 MPH

72H  03/1800Z 16.8N  47.5W  110 KT 125 MPH

96H  04/1800Z 16.0N  52.0W  115 KT 130 MPH

120H  05/1800Z 16.5N  56.5W  120 KT 140 MPH

As of now, Irma remains in the far eastern Atlantic ocean and is moving west at roughly 11.5 mph.  Based on current projections, the storm will make its first landfall in the eastern Caribbean sometime toward the middle of next week.

IRMA

Longer term computer models still vary widely but suggest that Irma will make landfall in the U.S. either in the Gulf of Mexico or Florida.  Meteorological Scientist Michael Ventrice of the Weather Channel is forecasting windspeeds of up to 180 mph, which he described as the "highest windspeed forecasts I've ever seen in my 10 yrs of Atlantic hurricane forecasting."

In a separate tweet, Ventrice had the following troubling comment: "Wow, a number of ECMWF EPS members show a maximum-sustained windspeed of 180+mph for #Irma, rivaling Hurricane #Allen (1980) for record wind"

The Weather Channel meteorologist also calculated the odds for a landfall along the eastern seaboard at 30%.

Meanwhile, the Weather Channel has the "most likely" path of Irma passing directly over Antigua, Puerto Rico and Domincan Republic toward the middle of next week.

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Storm-Clouds's picture

Like Presidents ya just can't tell what a hurricane will do?

Warn me before it makes landfall!

The dead stink like old decaying ass when wet!!!!!

Francis Marx's picture

Fell sorry for any bum floating out near this thing. Small eyewall. Means high winds.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/imagery/rb-animated.gif

Is-Be's picture

Been there, done that.

Reduce sail to minimum, swing the wheel hard into the wind and watch for breaking bulkheads.

The wind is not the problem. Its the water. Overfalls  hit the boat like Thor's hammer.

stormsailor's picture

furl the jib, double reef the main-sail, batten down the hatches,  keep her 15 degrees off the wind, and sometimes pray if you get a few milliseconds of thought. they call me stormsailor for a reason.

in a ship you find out how good or bad the crew really is, particularly below decks engineering rates

Tiwin's picture

Crank the engines , head for dry dock and get drunk as a skunk!

Nobodys Home's picture

"Highest Windspeed Forecasts I've Ever Seen"

So I expect it will be caused by global warming then.

SuperRay's picture

10 whole years, huh.  Well, I guess that's longer than most people's sense of history these days.

runnymede's picture

I read a study abstract the other day that functional memory for avg humans is 2 years.

Certainly explains a lot

youshallnotkill's picture

For the last decades the going prognosis was that tropical storms will tend to form less often, but will be stronger on average.

That is because, on one hand, the increase in wind sheer suppresses a storm formation to get organized. On the other hand if a hurricane manages to form it will have more  thermal energy to draw on from a warmer sea.

This is pretty much the view of most meteorologists, and any country ignores this at its own peril.

Is-Be's picture

Anybody on Zerohedge into readin' an' writin' and stuff?

Read "Wilful Blindness" by Margaret Heffernan. 

There are none so blind as those who will not see.

Lucky black cat's picture

Luckily we bought the money back cancellation insurance for our trip to Dominican that starts SUNDAY. Our friends- not so much...

HoserF16's picture

Please, hurricane Irma, destroy Congress for "We The People!"

Saratoga's picture

Destroy Congress????? Start with the banks first then move to Congress

NO_MAN's picture

Regardless of how it was created, Hurricane Irma will be the Storm of The Century. The Caribbean Leeward Islands will be annihilated. People that live in the South-East U.S., especially South Florida, should take this storm very seriously and start preparing. Adding to the catastrophic destruction caused by Hurricane Harvey, Irma will be the game-changing Black Swan that finally breaks the U.S., heralding a new chapter in U.S. history. The devastation will be epic.

cheech_wizard's picture

I tried the same question using one of those on-line Magic-8 balls --- It responded with "Reply hazy. Try again."

 

Chuckster's picture

Why the down votes?  Makes sense to me.

runnymede's picture

"Makes sense to me"

Pretty much sums up the stunningly gullible homo sapien.

Likely our epitaph

Tiwin's picture

On weather boards of bygone days,he would have been called a Wishcaster.

any_mouse's picture

Now that there's good X*10^6 Doom porn.

Old Poor Richard's picture

Holy Global Cooling, Batman!  This is one mighty frightful apocalyptic rain storm coming.  Trump's fault.

Is-Be's picture

Is this the pin that we've been expecting?

Apocalypse Wow's picture

This scorned bitch, sister of Katrina and brother of Harvey, wants to make a name for herself as the meanest ever in a family of horror.

Able Ape's picture

When they get to the "K" names for hurricanes, I wonder if the Weather Service will have the balls to name that hurricane: KARMA....

junkyard dog's picture

10 years of forecasting. A child in hurricane years. These probability charts are fake news. Let us move our gaze to the next fear mongering issue.

idontcare's picture

He was watching Barney and Friends when we got hit in Miami with Cat 5+ Andrew.  

Ms No's picture

Somebody should sue the feds for doing psychological damage to a whole generation of children.  The constant fear mongering of Osama is going to get you, US funded ISIS is going to get you, we are all going to die from global warming, etc., probably has all children in a constant state of panic and nightmares.  You can't avoid it.  They also should be sued for all the billboard and magazine smut that the Hollywood pedophiles smeared all over our country that you also can't avoid.  No wonder these snowflakes are so weird.  They probably can't give a shit anymore because they maxed out on being terrified as kids and now they are all mental.

 

estebanDido's picture

It is to early to tell. Right now is as high north as Puerto Rico. Normally those will hit north of US or Europe. I am hoping for Wash DC.

Crush the cube's picture

Oh do Hurry Cain, with your Cat from 3.  Pffffft, they never quite.

SweetDoug's picture

'

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'

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This'll be Trump's fault, somehow, according to CNN and their pundits.

OJO

V-V

uhland62's picture

Definitely not. It is Putin's fault. 

The Old Man's picture

I'll tell you what... Sandy kicked the shit out of us here is NE Ohio and we bottom at 653 feet ABOVE sea level. Although the flooding wasn't terrible for us in our area (786 feet above sea level) some folks near the rivers and drainage areas to Lake Erie got clobbered. It took me 2 hours to go rescue my brother in law on a normal 20 minute trip because there were so many trees and power lines/poles down. He didn't get the okay to go back until 5 days later. He's a real character or I would have kicked him out and back into the storm. And this is Ohio folks. So I hope like hell this Irma ladouche stays off in the Atlantic or we here in the flyover are going to take a shit hit again. And this ain't global warming by human means. This is Mother Nature. We haven't been around long enough to really see her fury. Things may get worse, only time will tell, if we live long enough to record it.

 

The Old Man

rbianco3's picture

Please die storm- die.

I just paid off my Florida home last week and now talk of a Cat-6 !?  Just last year Matthew dropped a tree (hard) on our roof and don't think it was even a Cat-3.

kidinwyoming's picture

Highest windspeed FORECAST ever?  So now we just make shit up and freak out about It?  

What's the largest city in a red state on the coast with a Democrat mayor?  That's where it hits. ;)

rbianco3's picture

I'm thinking Jacksonville? I hope not- Miami must be Democrat run.

Or... no I can't wish it on D.C. because it might happen and I'd feel terrible. Can a hurricane remain strong that far North?

ThankUGartman's picture

So one week after a solar eclipse across the US we have possibly the worst Hurricane ever that hits Houston (77007) one of many zips for it. Crowleyans still running the show I see. Let's see how the debt ceiling gets handled in 3 weeks. CNN fear index should be high prior only for a Btfd opportunity again no doubt following the increase. They have no choice.

adr's picture

If HAARP weather modification is real, then these storms are being steered and intensified for an explicit purpose. 

That purpose is $100 oil. Everything has been tried to send oil back to triple digits but nothing has worked. 

The hundreds of small shale drillers aren't playing by the Tribe's rules. They must be eliminated. 

The track of Harvey made no sense. And now Irma is turning south when the storm should be tracking northwest. Strengthening this quickly is unnatural and is in fact unprecedented. 

People ask, how could the government kill people and destroy cities? 

Don't make me laugh I say back. The Tribe destroys nations for profit. The billionaires will do anything if it means generating billions more for their pockets. 

BitchesBetterRecognize's picture

............. and who are those folks interested in 100 dollar Oil prices?  See - Shale oil companies are the ones dying for oil prices to rise at least 80$ so they can barely cut even....   

 

 

 

BTW I hope you don't mention Russia in that business though...

Tiwin's picture

First part of your post Oh Jeez

ending part yeah

If they were so good theyd send cat5 after cat5 into syria

I think the Tribesters want Greater Israel waaayyyyy more than 100 bbl CLZ

Solio's picture

Well, it'll blow all the damn radiation outta here.

FreeEarCandy's picture

Bill & Hillary are gearing up for another Haiti.

runnymede's picture

They need a new crop of orphans for the comet pizza after party. 

fuckstar's picture

OMFG there's an Act Of God on my insurance policy, which I was required at gunpoint to purchase ... by atheists!
God bless Texas. The rest of you, pull your pants up. Get ready to rumble. For your life.

Buster Cherry's picture

Oh, its God Bless Texas today, huh?

You didn't have such tender thoughts a few days ago.

fuckstar's picture

No. I just hate beggars, thieves and liars. Everywhere. But I specialize.

Buster Cherry's picture

"Unprecedented? BULLSHIT. You have only to look back to 2007, but you can list 20 storms like this in the last century. Just like the flooding in NY & NJ a few years ago the MSM is hyping this up bigtime to rob us through their criminal wealth transferring government stooges. I went through a cat 3 hurricane. I lost nothing, because I'm not a fucking moron or a criminal. Hang all the insurance parasites. Make the adult children grow up by leaving them alone. Otherwise they hang with the criminal lawyers. "

That's what you said, at the peak of our disaster.

It was and is unprecedented dickhead. Fucking two faced piece of shit.

Show us your list of the 20 storms tbat did the damage we suffered, or for that matter the 5 largest metro areas of the USA that went through tbe same.

F0nestar's picture

Let the shooting begin!

Haitian Snackout's picture

I wonder what fraction of 1% of the people are making contingency plans now. Will we still refer to them as victims yet again?

Schmuck Raker's picture

Irma is Karma's pretribution for how Texas votes in 2020.