Irma Turning Into Monster Hurricane: "Highest Windspeed Forecasts I've Ever Seen"

Tyler Durden's picture

Hurricane Irma continues to strengthen much faster than pretty much any computer model predicted as of yesterday or even this morning.  Per the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) latest update, Irma is currently a Cat-3 storm with sustained winds of 115 mph but is expected to strengthen to a devastating Cat-5 with winds that could top out at 180 mph or more.  Here is the latest from the NHC as of 5PM EST:

Irma has become an impressive hurricane with intense eyewall convection surrounding a small eye.  Satellite estimates continue to rapidly rise, and the Dvorak classifications from both TAFB & SAB support an initial wind speed of 100 kt.  This is a remarkable 50-kt increase from yesterday at this time.

 

Irma continues moving west-northwestward, now at about 10 kt. There has been no change to the forecast philosophy, with the hurricane likely to turn westward and west-southwestward over the next few days due to a building ridge over the central Atlantic.  At long range, however, model guidance is not in good agreement on the strength of the ridge, resulting in some significant north-south differences in the global models.  I am inclined to stay on the southwestern side of the model guidance, given the rather consistent forecasts of the ECMWF and its ensemble.  In addition, the strongest members of the recent ensembles are on the southern side on the consensus, giving some confidence in that approach.

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/2100Z 17.3N  34.8W  100 KT 115 MPH

12H  01/0600Z 17.8N  36.2W  105 KT 120 MPH

24H  01/1800Z 18.2N  38.3W  105 KT 120 MPH

36H  02/0600Z 18.3N  40.7W  105 KT 120 MPH

48H  02/1800Z 17.9N  42.9W  105 KT 120 MPH

72H  03/1800Z 16.8N  47.5W  110 KT 125 MPH

96H  04/1800Z 16.0N  52.0W  115 KT 130 MPH

120H  05/1800Z 16.5N  56.5W  120 KT 140 MPH

As of now, Irma remains in the far eastern Atlantic ocean and is moving west at roughly 11.5 mph.  Based on current projections, the storm will make its first landfall in the eastern Caribbean sometime toward the middle of next week.

IRMA

Longer term computer models still vary widely but suggest that Irma will make landfall in the U.S. either in the Gulf of Mexico or Florida.  Meteorological Scientist Michael Ventrice of the Weather Channel is forecasting windspeeds of up to 180 mph, which he described as the "highest windspeed forecasts I've ever seen in my 10 yrs of Atlantic hurricane forecasting."

In a separate tweet, Ventrice had the following troubling comment: "Wow, a number of ECMWF EPS members show a maximum-sustained windspeed of 180+mph for #Irma, rivaling Hurricane #Allen (1980) for record wind"

The Weather Channel meteorologist also calculated the odds for a landfall along the eastern seaboard at 30%.

Meanwhile, the Weather Channel has the "most likely" path of Irma passing directly over Antigua, Puerto Rico and Domincan Republic toward the middle of next week.

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grunk's picture

So I should be buying $100 cases of water?

Hope Copy's picture

And you doubled down on Portable Rico's bonds .. LoL

Manipuflation's picture

I would have never guessed that there a there would be a tropical storm living that close to the tropics./sarc 

I live in Minnesota.  We get bad storms all of the time and we know all about them and tornadoes that whip up winds much higher in wind velocity than a hurricane or tropical storm.  No one reports about storms in Minnesota on national news even though we grow most of your food.  I don't see why I should care about some storm somewhere else much less pay for it.  We have enough problems of our own.  Move somwhere else if you don't like tropical storms but don't move here.       

Buster Cherry's picture

You know, maybe you're right.

Then again, maybe you're a "we grow most of your food" shithead.

At this point in time, its tough to tell the difference.

Manipuflation's picture

I wrote that as a junk post.  You missed the subtley as I figured all you would not.  Most ZHer these are reactionary in nature.  Most ZHer's can't simply can't discern me from one post to the next.  If you can't figure me out after almost six years then you never will.  You will take any bait to prove that you are better than me and more knowledgeable too.  

I hope you enjoy your little "victory".  You wouldn't know who was on your side if it was texted to you.  This is jsut another example of why I refuse to represent you.  You are too plain stupid for me to stick my neck out for you.  I don't owe any of you anything.  If you thought there was plug nickel involved for you, you'd be right behind me. 

I don't care what you think about me.  I am not going to do anything for you.  Is my point clear enough now?  Most of the orignaal ZHers have left and it is because of the current crop of ZHers who talk a lot and do nothing.

Junk away if that makes you feel about how much debt you are in.    

YourAverageJoe's picture

Your timing for a "junk post" so soon after a disaster was not thought out very well

Manipuflation's picture

Why?  I got my credit card statement today.  Almost $70!!! 

grunk's picture

I am going to start looting now.

Goldennutz's picture

Why not.

 

Beat the rush and get all the good shit.

grunk's picture

Irma?

Sounds like a white man's hurricane.

BitchesBetterRecognize's picture

Sandy 2.0? 

 

damn!  -- this country is going to shit by the forces of nature!

skunzie's picture

Well, well, well.  Highest windspeeds he's ever seen in 10 years of forecasting.  Keep in mind that the US went 142 months straight without a major hurricane hitting the mainland.  That's two months shy of 12 years without a major strike.  He wasn't even forecasting weather yet.  Give me some grizzled old fart who's been around for 30 or 40 years and I'll listen to his opinion.

Wahooo's picture

My bunions are killing me. This is going to be a helluva hurricane.

Chipped ham's picture

Dude. Ya gotta let the young brothers run. 

ThePhysicist's picture

Haiti could be a tropical paradise once again!

Chipped ham's picture

Clinton Global Initiative Part Deux? 

Plenty more where that came from. 

F0nestar's picture

negrow infestation gone. would be too much to wish for.

DirtySanchez's picture

Stand behind that disgusting nigger, moochie obozo, after a night out drinking cheap wine and eating multiple chili dogs.

Then tell me about record wind speed.

TRM's picture

What would happen if a unseasonal cold front dropped down past DC just as this arrived? 4 feet of snow in 1 day? Damn. Not trying to give ideas to the weather manipulators but just saying if you want to make an example of some city ....

RDouglas's picture

You cruel bastard, what kind of person even imagines such a thing;)

Freedumb's picture

Everyone relax. This is 10 days out, one tiny little wobble in the jet stream and all of this is out the door. Let's revisit this in 5-6 days. For now this is just media hype clickbait. If you want to see really good weather discussion with lots of pro meteorologists commenting, have a look at http://www.americanwx.com/

I follow that site often, you can get legit, unfiltered weather info catering to smart people in those forums rather than the sort of vague, hyped up, dumbed down bullshit you typically see on the news.

Freedumb's picture

BUT, do always have a stockpile of food, water or water filters/purification equipment, keep your gas tanks pretty full during hurricane season if you are anywhere near the coast. Best to already have it on hand than take part in the idiotic last minute panic buying. I'm a big fan of rice, beans and sardines. Unfortunately live in a small apartment so some sort of doomsday prepper supply is out of my practical reach. Keep in mind you might end up feeding your neighbors too.

Goldennutz's picture

If it's TEOTWAWKI you might end up eating your neighbors.

Freedumb's picture

And what better to pair with your neighbors than some nicely filtered water, rice, beans, some curry and maybe a few sardines?

runnymede's picture

That is ridiculous. No one would ever eat their neighbors. Shame on you.

Regards,

George Donner

I Write Code's picture

gonna blow Cuba like Cuba never been blown

Apocalypse Wow's picture

This beeach eventually hits America, who is going to assist Cuba when it is blown to smithereens?

Those rare cars will get really really rare.

RDouglas's picture

It is waaay to early to freak out, and a bit late to prepare if your in the path. Odds are this storm will die in the the North Atlantic. But, and it's a big but for me, if this storm makes landfall in NYC, NJ, Miami.......... The thing is, I sold my business 18 months ago, liquidated everything but IRAs into currencies, coin, and gear, over the last 10 months. Sold my house in Portland this summer, I'm sitting pretty In NW Montana, ready to go bargain shopping. Hurricane Irma could save me from looking like a panicky damn fool. Come on sweet heart, tear this mutherfucker down.

GoldenDonuts's picture

Obviously unmarried.  Or listening to your wife ask you where the disaster is?  And tell me again why we left L.A.?

RDouglas's picture

Married 25 years, Native Montanan, lived in Portland for 27 years, almost Back home. Close though.

grunk's picture

You fool!

Irma is expected to make landfall in Montana as a Category 5!

 

Get out while you can!

FreeEarCandy's picture

Catagory 5 blow job.

Farmer Joe in Brooklyn's picture

It's been 10+ years since one of those has struck my house...

HisBoyElroy's picture

Hey Don, put your wonder kin, inbred aspargers, geek whose fuckin your daughter in charge of the Irma storm. Kushner running around hat in hand to the Arabs for a loan. Lol. I FUCKIN LOVE that. A real tycoon, born on third base and started running to second. Bought NYC commercial RE at the top, I wouldn't let him run a lemonade stand.

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/kushner-666-fifth-avenue-hunt-150047518....

RDouglas's picture

So, your NOT a fan of Weaselface then?

DIgnified's picture

Has Trump disavowed the racist hurricanes yet?

onmail1's picture

Cock$uckerObama's Time : God punished USA with drought

Trump's Time: Now with water & deluge

==========

Hey Trump, Jesus  said : 'Those who work for peace will be called children of God'

 

Father ¢hristmas's picture

Jesus is God's© Son.  He said peacemakers are the children of God©.

He also said he didn't come to bring peace.

*chuckle*

10mm's picture

Second coming. To rid evil and a very evil earth age.

OKUSA's picture

And this is why I stopped watching the weather channel. Well, and the fact that they started naming winter storms. Talk about climate change hype.

GotAFriendInBen's picture

I launched my own weather station which has a Zulu priest christen every cloudburst, wind gust, and puddle

Rainmon's picture

"Remember folks there is no such thing as 'Climate Change' all these once in a 1000 years storms are normal" President Trumpanzee 

2bit Hoarder's picture

The fact that they say it might rival a hurricane from 1980 kinda shits on your rhetoric, but OK.

Frankly Speaking's picture

Sure, no hurricanes for 10 years due to climate change. Now the opposite is proposed when one finally arrives. One in a thousand years? Moron.

Spitball's picture

So, a weather service that can't predict my forcast 10 days ahead can forcast what climate will be like 30-100 years ahead?

Sure

I hate cunton's picture

So, professor: would you say it's time for everyone to panic?

 Yes I would, Kent