Irma Turning Into Monster Hurricane: "Highest Windspeed Forecasts I've Ever Seen"

Tyler Durden's picture

Hurricane Irma continues to strengthen much faster than pretty much any computer model predicted as of yesterday or even this morning.  Per the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) latest update, Irma is currently a Cat-3 storm with sustained winds of 115 mph but is expected to strengthen to a devastating Cat-5 with winds that could top out at 180 mph or more.  Here is the latest from the NHC as of 5PM EST:

Irma has become an impressive hurricane with intense eyewall convection surrounding a small eye.  Satellite estimates continue to rapidly rise, and the Dvorak classifications from both TAFB & SAB support an initial wind speed of 100 kt.  This is a remarkable 50-kt increase from yesterday at this time.


Irma continues moving west-northwestward, now at about 10 kt. There has been no change to the forecast philosophy, with the hurricane likely to turn westward and west-southwestward over the next few days due to a building ridge over the central Atlantic.  At long range, however, model guidance is not in good agreement on the strength of the ridge, resulting in some significant north-south differences in the global models.  I am inclined to stay on the southwestern side of the model guidance, given the rather consistent forecasts of the ECMWF and its ensemble.  In addition, the strongest members of the recent ensembles are on the southern side on the consensus, giving some confidence in that approach.



INIT  31/2100Z 17.3N  34.8W  100 KT 115 MPH

12H  01/0600Z 17.8N  36.2W  105 KT 120 MPH

24H  01/1800Z 18.2N  38.3W  105 KT 120 MPH

36H  02/0600Z 18.3N  40.7W  105 KT 120 MPH

48H  02/1800Z 17.9N  42.9W  105 KT 120 MPH

72H  03/1800Z 16.8N  47.5W  110 KT 125 MPH

96H  04/1800Z 16.0N  52.0W  115 KT 130 MPH

120H  05/1800Z 16.5N  56.5W  120 KT 140 MPH

As of now, Irma remains in the far eastern Atlantic ocean and is moving west at roughly 11.5 mph.  Based on current projections, the storm will make its first landfall in the eastern Caribbean sometime toward the middle of next week.


Longer term computer models still vary widely but suggest that Irma will make landfall in the U.S. either in the Gulf of Mexico or Florida.  Meteorological Scientist Michael Ventrice of the Weather Channel is forecasting windspeeds of up to 180 mph, which he described as the "highest windspeed forecasts I've ever seen in my 10 yrs of Atlantic hurricane forecasting."

In a separate tweet, Ventrice had the following troubling comment: "Wow, a number of ECMWF EPS members show a maximum-sustained windspeed of 180+mph for #Irma, rivaling Hurricane #Allen (1980) for record wind"

The Weather Channel meteorologist also calculated the odds for a landfall along the eastern seaboard at 30%.

Meanwhile, the Weather Channel has the "most likely" path of Irma passing directly over Antigua, Puerto Rico and Domincan Republic toward the middle of next week.

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baldknobber's picture

And wash them all out to sea never to be seen again      Idiot

JustPastPeacefield's picture

And wash away your first-world lifestyle right along with it. You wouldn't last 5 minutes.

brazilian's picture

I have a 2nd world lifestyle and don't depend on your goddamned oil companies in Texas.  Keep on denying climate change, you fools!  Houston's houses and buildings are going to malke nice spawning grounds for great fishing.  Screw big oil.

Michigander's picture

Yea, I know, we serve some of your 2nd world neighborhoods in Belize. Mud floors, cooking with animal dung...smoke and particulate filled houses...nasty water.

Maybe you enjoy living in a fucking toilet. Its great when thats the only life you know of. Most, however, do not.

idontcare's picture

Er um, those tweets featured in this article were exposed as FAKES 10 minutes ago on KHOU.  Goto the South FL Water Management site if you want to see the moment by moment updates for the spaghetti models.  Current models have Irma staying well off the US SE coast and probably missing the eastern US altogether.

Ron_Mexico's picture

thanks for the heads up. These spaghetti tracks are WAY different than most I've seen.

Swampster's picture


apike3137's picture

God's coming for the homos...



junction's picture

The latest CNN report is that Irma may turn out to be a gutterball, it is too far north at 20 degrees latitude, the ocean water is not warm enough to power it up.  [Unless it tracks south for some HAARP reason.]  

The Gladiator's picture

Jesus! More hype for TWC to get more viewers. 2 weeks ago Michael Ventrice said that we wouldn't even see any storms past Sept. 7th,now he is spouting this bullshit? He has ZERO credibility with true meteorologists.

gdpetti's picture

Well, it is about the only time they get more viewers, so....

On the 'bright' side, as the song goes, at least here for the States, DC/WallStreet zone in particular:

You can't always get what you want
But if you try sometimes well you just might find
You get what you need

beyondtheprogramming's picture

Yeah. I absolutely trust someone who calls himself Ventrice. By the way, is he related to Mother Talzen and General Grevious? If there were still any reservations they are all gone now - Zero Hedge has gone to the DOGS! 

"Whoever knowingly issues or publishes any counterfeit weather forecast or warning of weather conditions falsely representing such forecast or warning to have been issued or published by the Weather Bureau, United States Signal Service, or other branch of the Government service, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than ninety days, or both," reads the code. It won't be definitively known until next week where, when and HOW Irma will make landfall.