Hurricane Irma Upgraded To Category 3, Barreling Straight Toward The East Coast

Tyler Durden's picture

Update from the NHC as of 5pm: IRMA BECOMES A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 34.8 West.  Irma is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h).  This motion is expected to continue today, followed by a westward turn on Saturday, and a west-southwestward motion by Sunday.

 

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts.  Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Fluctuations in strength, both up and down, are possible, but Irma is expected to remain a powerful hurricane for several days.

* * *

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has just updated its forecast for what it is now referring to as a "rapidly intensifying" Category 2 hurricane in the Eastern Atlantic ocean and the results look disastrous for a large swath of the Caribbean and Southeastern United States.  Here is a brief summary of Hurricane Irma from the National Hurricane Center released at 11AM EST:

Satellite images indicate that Irma is rapidly intensifying. Very deep convection has formed in the central dense overcast, which is now displaying a small and clearing eye.  Dvorak estimates were up to 77 kt at 1200 UTC, and since the cloud pattern continues to quickly become more organized, the initial wind speed is set to 85 kt.

 

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 33.8 West. Irma is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h).  This general motion is forecast through early Friday, followed by a generally westward motion on Saturday.

 

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts.  Irma is forecast to become a major hurricane by tonight and is expected to be an extremely dangerous hurricane for the next several days.

 

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km).

Irma is expected to grow into a "major hurricane" within the next 24 hours with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph before growing even stronger throughout the weekend and eventually becoming a Category 4 storm.

Irma

The storm is moving west at roughly 10 mph and isn't expected to pose its first threat to land until next week.

Irma

 

That said, longer term models suggest that Irma could make a turn to the northwest towards the middle of next week and head straight for Florida.

 

Meanwhile, other computer models predict that Hurricane Irma will move through the Gulf of Mexico and make its U.S. landfall in Texas just 2 weeks after Hurricane Harvey devastated the state.

That said, a lot could obviously change over the next week and, as the NHC notes, Irma is currently tracking further south than models predicted as of yesterday.

Irma has moved somewhat south of and slower than all of the model guidance since yesterday.  Consequently, it stayed longer over the warmer ocean temperatures away from the drier air to the north, possibly allowing the rapid strengthening.  Irma should move over cooler waters tomorrow with some increase in mid-level dry air, so hopefully the hurricane's intensity will level off by then.  In a few days, the hurricane will be moving over warmer waters with light shear shown by all of the model guidance.  This should promote further strengthening of Irma, and the NHC forecast shows an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane next week, similar to the solutions provided by the HWRF and the ECMWF models. The intensity forecast is raised considerably from the previous one due to initial trends, and is on the high end of the guidance at long range.

Of course, with FEMA resources already stretched thin by Hurricane Harvey, another U.S. landfall of a Cat 4 hurricane could be devastating blow.

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hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

Karma?  NYC deserves it for voting for Hillary?

idea_hamster's picture

God gettin' busy teaching red states about how socialism isn't evil, but they can turn down their FEMA money if they're ideologically pure.

Looney's picture

 

I wonder why the Global Warmers don’t blame the Biblical Flood on Noah’s daily activities.   ;-)

Looney

Troy Ounce's picture

 

Name change filed and approved.

From "Irma" to "Imran".

Creepy_Azz_Crackaah's picture

Waiting for the MASSIVE cut-and-paste, "we're all gonna die and it's your fault for exhaling CO2, driving mother earth's temperature higher," and WAY higher taxes and MUCH more control of our lives by gubmint will stop the climate from changing - "science" says so, post.

BuddyEffed's picture

Our resources will be needed more badly to provide reconstruction of Texas and elsewhere rather than in building a wall?

Pinto Currency's picture

Harvey was able to stop on a dime, back up a few miles and hang a right to slam right into Houston.

See pg. 13 of this US Patent 4,686,605

https://www.google.com/patents/US4686605

The patent is owned by BAE Systems. https://www.lens.org/lens/patent/US_4686605_A

Harvey's path:

http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/845486/Hurricane-Harvey-path-map-w...

847328_3527's picture

Is that Democrat Houston Mayor, Sylvester "The Village Idiot" Turner, still telling his peeples not to evacuate?

 

What a dope!

Typical Democrap who sacrificed his residents in order to contradict the Republican Governor and trump who both told him to evacuate Houstonians.

How many Houstonians will suffer and/or die because of his left wing democrap stance?

sincerely_yours's picture

"A house divided cannot stand." -Jesus

Besides, like they say, Bad Things Happen for a reason. http://wp.me/p4OZ4v-3Mc

Whoa Dammit's picture

Take a look at this video of gas lines at a Richardson Texas QT.  (Don't let this person's twitter handle throw you- it's not porn & safe to watch at work)

https://twitter.com/LuluLuvely/status/903304304429334529

And line for gas at Plano TX Costco...

https://twitter.com/kashbunker/status/903311726246072320

Post-Truth Society's picture

Filthy Muslim Trump has ordered increased chemtrail doses for this storm to disperse over the Bible Belt, likely on the advice of his jew son-in-law Kushner.  MSM and ZH are too afraid to report this. Tylers are too busy running their ad revenue spreadsheet.

Trump will settle for nothing less than total destruction, whether through nuclear war or sterilization of the Christian population.  Less opposition to his vital allies, Saudi Arabia and Israel.

BabaLooey's picture

No asshole.

THAT was Barry de Indonesia Trash Bin La FRAUD Soebama....

Go wipe his ass.........................ass

Fish Gone Bad's picture

I am just afreaid New Orleans will get scrubbed off... again.

Fritz's picture

You forgot the /sarc qualifier dipshit - the chemtrail theory is a joke that you apparently did not get the punchline to.

Sell crazy somewhere else.

DollarMenu's picture

Meanwhile, the Galveston cam shows sunshine, a calm sea and fishermen at the pier.

The Exxon station seems to be operating normally.

http://www.galveston.com/seawallvideocam/

eclectic syncretist's picture

Now this hurricane hysteria is just doom porn plain and simple at this point. Not only is such long range forecasting of the landfall projections of these systems notoriously inaccurate, it's also well known that these systems cannot maintain major hurricane status for more than a couple of days or so before they burn themselves out and have to undergo an eyewall replacement or two, making it unlikely this one is going to be a major hurricane by the time it gets to the USA. 

All that said, if you don't know how to swim or haven't ensured that all your loved ones can swim, rescue, and tie common knots and lashings, and if you aren't otherwise already prepared as if this might be a Katrina/Harvey type event, you really should do something about that, regardless of what happens with this system.

When you feel like the government's got your back and they will always be there to save you when something goes wrong, it's just about time to realize you are truly fucked and might as well get in the box already.

Creative_Destruct's picture

"...just doom porn plain and simple at this point."

Yes.

"Bear in mind that, on average, long-range hurricane forecasts beyond 7 days have very little skill when it comes to specific locations and intensities, and much could change in the coming days."

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/irma-intensifying-eastern-atlantic-big-long-range-questions

J S Bach's picture

Have you noticed the ethnicity of these (((names)))?  I hope we get up to the esses.  I really want to see Hurricane Shmuel slam those defiant Trump supporters.

seataka's picture

Gildna ratner voice on/   

nevermind

Ajas's picture

Used to be inaccurate.  The ECM model is more accurate than past models.

It nailed Harvey's complicated, lingering, swirling path and is the one presented in most of the images in this article.  The GFS model has Irma swinging further to the North.

Creative_Destruct's picture

Longer range, still innacurate. Most likely always will be. Not surprising when trying to predict an inherently unpredictable chaotic/complex-dynamic system like the weather.

Per a competent source:

"...long-range hurricane forecasts beyond 7 days have very little skill when it comes to specific locations and intensities, and much could change in the coming days."

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/irma-intensifying-eastern-atlantic-big-long-range-questions

The GFS, CMC, and NAVGEM models all predict a futher north swing along/up the East Coast. Hope the current GFS plays out and it's a "fish storm," over open water, BUT WAAAAY to early to tell where, even generally (Gulf Coast, East Coast, Open Water) this thing will end up.

lil dirtball's picture

> Used to be

That's because the models are now the paths.

'Climate change' is just another word for .gov weather manipulation/modification.

NoVa's picture

One of my managerS has family  living in St Lucia. 

Pray for safety

 

NoVa

Geoengineering_Genocide's picture

So it's unpredictable doom porn, yet the prediction of it being "unlikely to be a major hurricane by the time it gets to the USA" is somehow presumed to be accurate.  

Also, what the fuck do you people mean these things aren't predicted accurately?  In a rational world with natural weather, that would be true.  But Harvey was predicted with near certainty THE WHOLE TIME.  They are READING SCRIPTS, they're not predicting SHIT.    

Tiwin's picture

Tylers, , bring back the tests to comment?

 

Clashfan's picture

Shame on you. Where's your patriotism? Our American geoengineers are the best in the world. They can cash any checks the doom porn hurricane salesmen can write. Watch n see.

cornflakesdisease's picture

You can't evacuate 3 million people.  I live in Houston.  It's built on a swamp.  This is normal for us.  I has 23" in my driveway Sunday night.  I don't support Turner's party, but he did the right thing.  We fled in Hurricane Rita and got trappen on the freeway to Austin for 8 hours. 

 

Please !@#$ yourself.

Son of Loki's picture

I agree.

Abbott was right; evacuate the low lying areas that are known to flood badly.  Request HISD buses (which HISD whihc be gald to do!) and load them up. No need to avcuate millions, just the 20,00 to 30,00 in low lying areas. This ~30,000 would have also relieved what we see now with overcrowded shelters.They would be sitting warm and safe in hotel rooms in Austin, San Marcos, etc instead of freezing in wet clothes and hugry and feeling down.

Austin has over 250,000 hotel rooms. No need to get trapped on the highway if you heed good advice early enough imo.

This was a political play on Turner's part that went terribly wrong for him and Houstonians.

OceanX's picture

Tell me, how do you evacuate 6 million people?   Wouldn't that create a larger disaster then just a little bad weather?

Son of Loki's picture

No need to exaggerate. Only 30,000 or so from known flood areas. Not 6 million. Then the shelters right now would have enough room, food, etc.

Anyone who has ever lived in Houston for more then 10-15 years knows what arwas flood. It's not covering 6 million people....more like 30,000-50,000.

"Common sense evacuation."

Anyway, open discussion is good when one does not resort to cursig and perjoratives. Makes them less credible when they curse instead of discussing based on facts and common sense.

pods's picture

SOB, two days ago this puppy was going to be harmlessly swept out in the Atlantic.  Now it's messing with the east coast and even has one model having it hop into the Gulf?  I wonder if they borrowed some AGW models to hype this storm up?  Where you put in the results you want and the model back calculates all the data.

pods

Mr Hankey's picture

Looks like the Caribbean islands are going to be a giant speed bump.

The Cooler King's picture

@pods ~ lol

 

Weather forecasting is like economics forecasting.

 

Here' I'll be the WEATHERMAN du jour...

 

"In the Rocky Mountains ~ Cloudy"

"In the Cloudy Mountains ~ Rocky"

 

I bet I did better than Gartman there ;-)

Creative_Destruct's picture

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/irma-intensifying-eastern-atlantic-big-long-range-questions

"Bottom line:  Climatology is in Irma's favor. We are fast approaching the average peak date of the Atlantic hurricane season (September 10) as well as the seasonal peak of African tropical waves. Moreover, SSTs are above seasonal averages across the entire tropical Atlantic. Irma is more than a week away from any possible U.S. impacts. Bear in mind that, on average, long-range hurricane forecasts beyond 7 days have very little skill when it comes to specific locations and intensities, and much could change in the coming days. The idea is not to take a particular track or strength forecast as gospel at this point, but to be aware that a major hurricane could be approaching North America in the 1- to 2-week time frame."

Some area COULD get the crap knocked out of it, OR it could miss altogether and be a "fish storm" (GFS, a reliable model, and CMC and NAVGEM indicate such). Too early to tell.

http://www.myfoxhurricane.com/advanced.html

 

The Cooler King's picture

OK ~ so let me synthesize that FOR UTILITY PURPOSES (& so mosley doesn't have to take time out from his bitcoin 'tick' watching to explain it to people who, in his words, are probably retards)...

 

THERE'S A 50-50 CHANCE THAT IN MY ANONYMOUS LOCATION within 1,500 miles, plus or minus,  I MAY OR MAY NOT GET HIT BY A HURRICANE... WHICH... MAY OR MAY NOT HAVE A 100-1 CHANCE OF BEING THE STORM OF THE CENTURY...

 

But if I'm in a RED STATE, I'm probably fucked... & whereby if I'm in a BLUE STATE, I'll only get hit because GOD wanted to punish all the assholes who claimed that hitting a RED STATE was 'God's Karma' (even though they don't believe in GOD)... 

 

Did I miss anything?

 

Oh yeah, there's something that I might have missed...

 

BUY BITCOIN!!!

 

Do whatever you can do to BUY BITCOIN!!!

 

The easiest way to do that would be to put it on your CREDIT CARD... u kno...

 

GO INTO DEBT, so the banking system can print more fiat money out of thin air, to account for that DEBT... & then, naturally, use 100x leverage to create derivatives off of that DEBT, like they've done for 100+ years now to ENSLAVE humanity...

 

You'll be doing your LIBERTARIAN service to END THE BANKING SYSTEM the same way that you CRASHED JP MORGAN a few years back...

 

 

dark pools of soros's picture

yes use all your credit cards to buy bitcoin then leave the fucking country... establish credit there, and do the fucking same thing.... keep going until you end up at a place worth rooting down

you'll be able to travel more than Simon Black

Tiwin's picture

Pods - 2 days ago this puppy did not exist . It was a batch o clouds under observation.Advisories were initiated at 11am EDT yesterday

Geoengineering_Genocide's picture

Yes, these storms are planned, manipulated, coordinated.  Nowhere in the "news", mainstream or alternative has it been mentioned that Harvey broke a record TWELVE YEAR HURRICANE DROUGHT.  

https://govbanknotes.wordpress.com/category/weather/

Somehow, while the rest of the world gets pounded in the ass by cyclones for twelve years, Murika undergoes an epic dry spell.  And then these two massive storms come from out of nowhere, their paths are predicted with near 100% accuracy days in advance, and they take courses leading to maximum possible destruction.  And nobody bothers to even question this shit.  The reflective imaging radar proves that Harvey was kept from migrating North like it should have, to stay over Texas for as long as possible, via massive bursts of high-intensity radio frequency waves.  The weather you see on the TV only presents hand-selected data and images to hide the climate engineering reality.

Everything else is a distraction from this.  Central bankers are behind geoengineering, and most won't find that shocking.  

 

Omen IV's picture

Engineering Climate: CHEM  TRAILS - go into overdrive multiple points in the world - Aluminum nano particles coupled with HAARP Systems

Highly toxic heavy metals and chemicals (that are systematically sprayed into our atmosphere from jet aircraft as part of the geoengineering/SRM programs) are manipulated with extremely powerful radio frequency signals. These signals are transmitted from countless locations around the globe from various types of transmission platforms (ionosphere heater installations like HAARP, SBX radar, NEXRAD, etc.). The impact of the microwave transmissions on cloud formations is profound and highly visible

http://wakingtimesmedia.com/nasa-satellite-imagery-reveals-shocking-proo...

Abaco's picture

We need a big ass wall to keep the storms from trying to sneak across the border. Make the reconstruction bill big as shit and build the wall with it.

OverTheHedge's picture

It's worse than that!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/advice/10865650/How-much-energy-do...

"A typical web search would, on average, produce around 0.2g of CO2, says Rick Maybury"

Ban Google! It's for the future!

OverTheHedge's picture

Double post.

So important, I needed to say it twice, apparently.

panhead20's picture

Whether it is man made CO2 causing the earth's temperature to rise or some other cause, the earth's temperature is rising and your going to have to deal with it.

JRobby's picture

Who the fuck is Michael Ventrice besides someone directed by the deep state to shift focus on something else while the deep state makes some desperate moves???

They see it slipping away. Be on guard and ready to take action.

Singelguy's picture

I have been waiting for that since saturday.

GUS100CORRINA's picture

My response: Maybe it will HIT WASHINGTON DC while the LEGISLATORS are in SESSION and carry them all away so we can start over.

 

pods's picture

My fav part of his diatribe "For those of you who haven't seen this"

Umm, I think EVERYONE has seen it.

pods