Endless Regional Chaos: American Presence In Afghanistan Explained

Tyler Durden's picture

Authored by Federico Pieraccini via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

The geographic location of Afghanistan has always occupied a central role in many geopolitical studies. Donald Trump’s reasons for reinforcing US troops in the region are driven by the continuing US need to prevent a complete Eurasian integration among regional powers.

The April peace talks between Afghanistan, India, Pakistan, Russia and China seemed to have put an end to the persistent and dominant American presence in the country. In Washington, following fifteen years of war and a series of failures, many had come to the conclusion that the time had come for the United States to return home.

Trump had throughout his electoral campaign criticized the foreign policy of his predecessors, giving the indication that he would be looking to leave Afghanistan once he assumed the presidency.

The road plan for Afghanistan laid out by the April peace talks seemed to offer the prospect of national reconciliation between the Taliban and the central authority in Kabul, assisted by parties with great interest in the country like India and Pakistan, given their geographic proximity, as well as Russia, China and Turkey.

The first talks in April 2017 capitalized on America's absence at the conference as well as on the will of the protagonists to reach an agreement after fifteen years of war and terror. Afghanistan is a key crossroad in the eastward expansion strategy that illustrates the special partnership between Russia and China, as seen with the steady progress of the Silk Road 2.0 initiative and the Eurasian Economic Union. Given Afghanistan’s geographic position, sharing boundaries with Pakistan, Turkmenistan, Iran, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, it is useful to emphasize the role the country could play as a commercial and energy hub in the not too distant future.

Due to incompetence or perhaps due to facing insurmountable pressures, Donald Trump is undergoing a gradual and inexorable diminution with the elimination of all the most representative members of his administration. At the same time, the appointment of military personnel to civilian roles has pushed the administration into unexplored directions not foreshadowed in the electoral campaign. Trump spoke of less US military presence in the internal affairs of other nations. But as we shall see, nothing could be further from the truth.

The appointment of Generals McMaster, Kelly and Mattis (Mattis perhaps being the most powerful US defense secretary since the end of World War II) is Trump's attempt to withstand and bargain with the most significant elements of America’s deep state. A strong military component in the White House helps ensure continuity in US foreign policy. Contrary to what was professed during the elections, Donald Trump immediately traded American foreign policy in exchange for explicit GOP backing for key legislation that will help secure a 2020 re-election. Without bills on health, tax and immigration reform being passed, there will be no arguments in favor of the GOP and Trump during the midterm and presidential elections in 2018 and 2020 respectively.

The deep state in Washington has slowly but inexorably taken over Trump's presidency, a task made all the simpler by Trump’s character, which dismisses his lack of experience with an overweening self-confidence. The military component of the deep state, in concert with GOP leaders, took less than six months to quash Trump's electoral promises and turn the president’s foreign policy into a dangerous reprise of the Obama and Bush years.

More and more frequently, American intervention in foreign lands lead to situations of uncontrollable chaos, with no real central authority able to govern and obey Washington’s orders. The current state of the Middle East is reflective of this. In Afghanistan, Washington, especially Mattis, is cognizant of the country's rebirth under Sino-Russian leadership after fifteen years of America’s presence. This is a scenario that the US deep state is not willing to tolerate.

Leaving aside Afghanistan’s huge amounts of natural resources (about one trillion in precious metals), as well as its strategic location linking east and west, a peaceful Afghanistan led by a single central authority would hardly cohere with US objectives in the country. The US loves to consider itself the indispensable nation for peace in Afghanistan, when actually it is the main obstacle to peace.

For American foreign policy continuity, Afghanistan needs to remain in a chaotic situation. Above all, the US military industrial complex is not willing to surrender its political and military power in the country, only to be substituted by Moscow or Beijing. With these unofficial motives, General Mattis announced a surge of several thousand American troops to the country. It is immediately clear that numerically and tactically, four or five thousand soldiers will make no difference. The intent is purely demonstrative, as seen in Syria with a few missiles lobbed at an empty airbase. The purpose is to send a clear and unambiguous message to Russia, China, Pakistan and even India, to the effect that without American consensus, no strategic reorganization is permissible in Afghanistan.

General Mattis and all those who for decades have been constantly thinking of MacKinder's geopolitical theory (Heartland Theory) are aware of the strategic importance of keeping Afghanistan hostile towards regional powers like China and Russia. The USSR's war in defense of the country, and the socialist superpower’s subsequent collapse, offers a historical warning.

In April, Moscow and Beijing, with the tacit approval of New Delhi and Islamabad, launched a peace process in Kabul that should have facilitated talks between the central authority and the Taliban to bring about a truce that would bring to an end the violence and destruction that had over fifteen years left the country bleeding in endless poverty and suffering.

The American surge will not advance American interests in the country. It will not change the delicate balance negotiated between the parties back in April. It will not affect the efforts of Moscow and Beijing to stabilize the country. It will only buy Washington more time by bombing and killing civilians, always viewed by American generals as an acceptable and privileged option available to them.

Like in other parts of the world, the presence of American troops does not fully explain the long-term goals of military planners. Afghanistan in some respects resembles a similar situation to Southeast Asia. In South Korea, the American presence has persisted since 1950, and with it the destabilization of the Korean peninsula. As in Asia, the central purpose of the American presence in Afghanistan is to occupy geo-strategic zones in order to prevent Eurasian integration between powers like India, China and Russia. Secondly, it is the constant presence of troops and military bases in locations close to or around the two major powers of China and Russia that aims to overburden and thereby diminish the defensive capabilities of these two strategic threats. In 1962, when the USSR did something similar in response to the US deployment of patriot missiles in Turkey, it started building up its offensive capability in the Western Hemisphere using Cuba as a military base. The US was willing to go to war to halt this domestic threat and for weeks the world was on the verge of a nuclear conflict. Only dialogue between American and Soviet leaders averted this threat to human existence.

Conclusions

Washington cares for nothing other than its own interests. But twenty-five years after the end of the Cold War, the world is changing, and more and more fruitful efforts to replace the chaos wrought by US policies can be seen with peaceful, mutually beneficial cooperation increasingly being the order of the day. The road to economic prosperity and a re-established unity among the Afghan people is still a work in progress, but once the country manages to establish its independence, Washington will have a hard time dictating conditions. Countries like Russia, China and India have every intention of using diplomacy and peacekeeping to prevent a dangerous escalation in Afghanistan.

India and China have some divergence over the future of the region, but by the start of the 2017 BRICS conference, they had already resolved a border dispute that lasted over two months. The ability to create diverse organizations like BRICS, AIIB and SCO provides the opportunity to begin any kind of negotiation with a legal and economic foundation. This represents a commendable example of overcoming differences through diplomacy and economic benefits.

While the United States exhales the last breaths as a declining global power, no longer able to impose its will, it lashes out in pointless acts like lobbing 60 cruise missiles at Syria or sending 4000 troops to Afghanistan. Such acts do not change anything on the ground or modify the balance of forces in Washington’s favor. They do, however, have a strong impact on further reducing whatever confidence remains in the US, closing the door to opportunities for dialogue and cooperation that may otherwise have offered themselves.

Trump promised isolationism. His generals, behind the scenes, have managed to make this electoral promise come true, leaving Washington alone in the international arena in the near term.

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Lost in translation's picture

No coastline.

Dependent on (hopefully) benevolent allies for supply lines.

Stalingradistan.

OverTheHedge's picture

You only know you are living through the end of empire, when you retreat from Afghanistan.

JamesBond's picture

You don't retreat from quicksand.

stacking12321's picture

I saw no references to heroin in this article?
Kinda misses the point.

wildbad's picture

the run-on sentence which ends paragraph three ends with:

'could play as a commercial and energy hub in the not too distant future.'

if you swallowed that, you swallowed the entire globalist argument.

the future is receding in the distance.

no foreign entanglements

strannick's picture

The US loves to consider (declare) itself the indispensable nation for peace in Afghanistan, when actually it is the main obstacle to peace.

Afghanistan is about America controlling China/Russia and Heroin

America ruins the world to rule it.

cheka's picture

opioid epidimic supply line?  i read that colombia had record coke crop too - since it's become a US base

Sugarcandy Mountain's picture

Heroin.

Yep, agreed. An entire article that could have been summed-up with one word.

HardAssets's picture

No specifics on heroin or mineral wealth - including lithium.

TheEndIsNear's picture

When I was a child, Timbuktu was the most remote part of the world I'd heard of,
Afghanistan is a thousand miles further away.

August's picture

Afghanistan is an Ugly Country.  A Bug Country!

Fireman's picture

USSA and its blackmailed army of globalist pedophiles seeks (in vain) with moron Modi and his CIA co-opted henchmen to turn India against China. Try as it may with its Paki Hindu che$$ USSA will not stop its own inevitable decline and destruction as its proxy wars fizzle out and Civil War reloaded comes home to Slumville with a roar.

 

http://www.voltairenet.org/article197617.html

OverTheHedge's picture

Interesting that the US has changed regimes all around the world, but no one has (yet) tried to return the compliment. Illegal weapons shipped to rebels in the US would...have absolutely no effect, given the vast array of guns already in the country. Damn! Now what?

Anyone?

Laughing.Man's picture

Return the compliment?  Maybe they are planning on turning the US to be one giant penal colony for the World with a "Running Man" show on PPV.

Benjamin123's picture

The word you are looking for is MANPADS

HowdyDoody's picture

PERSONPADS if you please.

Crazy Or Not's picture

(US regime change)...Damn! Now what?

Anyone?
Are you really Over The Hedge ? Or looking for a new fund to invest in...
It's not about the guns, that circle jerks back to the same shitshow. Ask Napoleon/France.
more about an awakening and great unwashed understanding the matrix and deciding their own future.

VWAndy's picture

They need the poppies to enslave a few generations. That's it. Funny watching everyone running around pretending its not about the opium.

bardot63's picture

Don't let anyone bullshit you about why we are in Afghanistan.  It's all about trillions in gold, uranium, oil, rare earths.  Our troops are there to protect JP Morgan et al.  And we are actually behind the curve.

http://www.thinkadvisor.com/2011/05/13/jp-morgan-seeks-gold-in-afghanist...

http://fortune.com/2011/05/11/j-p-morgans-hunt-for-afghan-gold/http://fo...

Crazy Or Not's picture

it's also a wedge/launchpad to "neighbors."
Potentially an Asian/Samoyed "Israel" ....at least in principle!
Though they milk the tit as they're able in process...
...in between Empires digging graves for each other, that is. 

StychoKiller's picture

Meh, when the $ loses WRC status, those U.S. grunts might get stranded in Afghanistan!

AurorusBorealus's picture

This is not Pieraccini's best effort.  He seems somewhat mystified by the what the U.S. goal is in Afghanistan and attributes U.S. actions there as a desire to create chaos and an act of frustration.  Federico, I will give you some help.  The U.S. sponsored bin Ladin with the express goal of using him as a proxy against the Soviet Union.  He was a CIA asset, planted and cultivated by the CIA. After the Soviet Union fell, the U.S. wanted to use bin Laden against the Iranians as well.  Bin Laden went rogue, however, and began declaring jihad against his former U.S. benefactors.

The goal in invading Afghanistan (a plan conceived and on the desk of the neo-cons before 9/11) was to replace bin Laden.  The U.S. is not at war "against terrorism."  It is at war to control terrorism.  It wants to wield wahabbi fundamentalism as a military instrument to achieve its goals in the Mid east and southern Asia.  Because wahabbiism is promoted, taught, and exported by Saudi Arabia, the fools at the CIA think that they can exert influence and pressure on Saudi Arabia to "control" the Sunni maniacs.  They cannot, but that is not going to stop them from trying.

The current U.S. mission is to insert a new CIA-asset as the control of the Afghanistan Taliban: to replace bin Laden.  That is why, suddenly, the U.S. is agreeable to the Taliban having a share of governing authority in Afghanistan.  That had always been the U.S. plan: provided that the Taliban is led by an appropriately pro-Saudi, CIA-connected, terrorist.  This is why the U.S. army and CIA have been nurturing Afghanistan poppy production and why suddenly all of that poppy has mysteriously arrived in the U.S market as heroine.  It ties the U.S. to the Afghan population and makes the U.S. dependent on Afghan poppy and Afghans dependent on the U.S. dollar.

It is not frustration or some strange desire to produce chaos.  The desire is to produce a weapon of terror to wield against the Iranians, the Russians, or the Chinese if necessary.  That has always been the plan and guides much of U.S. policy in the region.  The folly of it all is that the wahabbiists are religious fanatics.  Washington cannot control them.  Look at how much blood and treasure the U.S. has spent trying to control these lunatics in Iraq, in Egypt, in Libya, in Afghanistan, and Syria.  It is not chaos that Washington wants.  However, chaos is the result of the fools in the CIA thinking that they can coerce or control religious fanatics hell-bent on holy war against the whole world.  Such is the madness of the CIA, however.

AurorusBorealus's picture

The Strategic Culture Foundation presents some of the better Russian think-tank thinking.  Against my better judgment, I will give them a little more help.  The careerists at the CIA have hitched their wagons to the star of radical Islam, as has much of the U.S. deep-state.  The U.S. is entirely dependent upon the petrodollar.  As goes jihad, so goes the U.S. . By supporting and trying to channel international Islamic terrorism, the U.S. is isolating itself from the entire world.  No one likes these people: not the Europeans, not the Chinese, not the people in the U.S., not even the people of the Phillipines.

To defeat the U.S., Russia must separate the U.S. from Europe, which will leave the U.S. without any allies, except the religious lunatics coming from Saudi Arabia.  Russia only must emphasize the point that I made above, time and again, to European leaders through diplomatic channels.  The U.S. CIA is supporting Islamic terror, and Islamic terror is the single most significant threat to the European Union.

Why?  Because the bureaucrats in Brussels love their little empire and their little Muslim immigration schemes.  They fancy themselves scientific managers, and they love to play with demographics, spreadsheets, and charts.  And right now the little lines on their little charts say that their welfare state cannot continue without a younger population.  So they have decided that the only way to make the lines on their charts look good is to bring a bunch of young, testosterone-filled, religious fanatics into Europe, and these nutters are blowing people to bits all over Europe.  Make this point loud and clear to the whole world.  Eventually, the Brussel bureaucrats will realize that USD inflows into their central bank are less important than making the little demographic lines on their charts look pretty.

Winston Churchill's picture

The machinations went deeper than even that.

The CIA did much to create the situation that led to the Soviets invading in the first place.

I was there, and we used to joke about the legions of obvious CIA agents in any major

town.There idea of merging in was not to wear their suit jacket.

Clown show deliberatly probably , but they goaded in the soviets to an unwinable war.

Then stupidly followed suit.

terrific's picture

It's time to scrape North Korea, Iran, and Pakistan off the face of the earth, all in one grand operation.  Hydrogen bombs on all of their major cities.  Neglecting to do this is suicidal on our part, and it will have the added effect of suppressing this kind of activity in other third world nations.  

stacking12321's picture

Either you're a koolaid drinking sheep, or you're bring sarcastic.
It's the USA that's the aggressor rogue nation, not the ones you mentioned.

land_of_the_few's picture

Your boys have lost in Syria. They are being literally erased as we speak. Nothing more than pieces of scorched scalp and stains on the sand which will disappear quickly.

Volkodav's picture

     Deir ezZor is near lift seige now

 

Volkodav's picture

     sorry...those are not much on face of earth

     especially Iran, never start any war over 200 year

 

 

 

HowdyDoody's picture

The siege is broken. Vanguard units broke through on the morning of the 4th. Main armor units entered the 137th military base on the morning of the 5th.

kochevnik's picture

Who is 'our', you tribalist filth?

Megaton Jim's picture

A very Kosher answer, you Satanic parasite!

Swamp Yankee's picture

its hard to say 'die' but it is better to say it than do it.

 

Bring them home.

Brazen Heist's picture

I'm sure that stuffing the CIA black budget with cash from the heroin trade is part of the reason, but the main reason is to keep Afghanistan in perennial conflict to keep a fire burning in the way of China's OBOR. Again, a sign of weakness and feeble US desire to prevent Eurasia from attaining peace and stability.

This empire needs to burn for its crimes, and that time is coming.

Joiningupthedots's picture

America has gone beyond delusional and into the realms of insanity if it thinks that it can pacify Afghanostan.

OBOR will happen, is happening and will continue to happen. The infrastructure is being put in place and paid for using surplus USD and will get repaymant to China in  currencies other than USD down the road.

The USN in time will become completely obsolete to function in time.There ae already missiles that push the carrier groups outside the rsngr that their aircraft need.

Syria proved that whatever super power puts its footprint in place first will prevail. Attack them and its nuclear confrontation.

America will continue to stamp around Afghanistan, bleeding and going bankrupt and eventually leave just as it did in Vietnam.

Pax Americana sans WW2 is over. All that remains is for Washington to accept the new paradigm.

America cannot change the inevitability of it all. It will all come to pass in time.

The only question is how long will it take? 

LA_Goldbug's picture

"can pacify Afghanistan."

That is the official goal which has nothing to do with reality. It was the same BS in Vietnam.

lew1024's picture

Until so many of the Israeli-Neocons who committed the 9-11 false flag have died that they do not have the power to prevent peace.

If peace arrives, they hang.

LA_Goldbug's picture

The complete explanation is in this presentation,

"CIA Agent Whistle-blower Risks All To Expose The Shadow Government"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XHbrOg092GA

It's a Cancer with no apparent cure. Killing the host might eliminate it locally for a relatively short time. Otherwise metastasis will continue.

lew1024's picture

Watch George Webb's Youtube series. Quite a remarkable mechanism has emerged from the internet for exposing and curing Deep State ills.

Not just research, but using a Grand Jury to place charges against Deep State actors by an ordinary citizen.

Next, we need criminal prosecutions by ordinary citizens. Probably new law, but George is making it all happen. Impressive, inspiring, historic. Really.

Mitra's picture

Endless wars => weapons are bought and sold. US generals represent the business interests of the Military Industrial Compex not the people.

Omega_Man's picture

mericans are evil and should be lock up

gordo53's picture

If it were only the opium, the Afghanistan problem could be easily solved.  Unfortunately, it is so much more.  The Iranians are intent upon becoming the major power in the region.  They are supporting Assad in Syria.  They have, on many occassions, called for the destruction of Israel. Chaos in the ME is essential to keeping the Iranians from consolidating power.  Of course, the Saudis aren't interested in seeing a more powerful Iran either.  The Sunni / Shia rift is alive and well.  When the Russians committed troops and massive levels of equipment to Syria, the 800 Israeli commandos posing as "moderate" rebels headed for the exits. That was about the same time Putin outted US support for ISIS.  The US is now stuck in the uneviable position of fighting the Sunni insurgents (terrorists) whom they once supported in hopes of topping the Assad regime.  Eventually, the US will tire of the unwinnable conflict and retreat as the Russians did in 1989. Let's hope it's sooner than later.

Joiningupthedots's picture

Written by a Khazar perhaps?

Israel is a fake construction full of fake Jews (read wandering Khazars) who are indulging in modern day land theft with the protection of the Moloch worshipping polyglot American establishment just as various religious orders and their travelling caravans did with said Moloch worshipping Europeans in the Middle Ages.

You have to love knowledge...it is the ultimate power :) 

americanreality's picture

A bit long, but if you'd like some answers and some historical context, this is a fantastic read.  Highly recommended:

 

Http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/31256-the-geopolitics-of-the-us-globa...