"Monster" Irma Is Now The Strongest Atlantic Hurricane On Record As Florida Preps For "Catastrophe"

Tyler Durden's picture

Update 3: The Irma hits just keep on coming, with the NHC Atlantic Ops twitter page reporting that as of this moment, Irma is now the stronger hurricane in the Atlantic basin outside of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico in NHC records. “Preparations should be rushed to completion in the hurricane warning area,” the NHC said.

Taking things to the next level, literally, meteorologist Eric Holthaus writes that Hurricane Irma is now expected to *exceed* the theoretical maximum intensity for a storm in its environment, or as he puts it "Redefining the rules."

Puerto Rican Governor Ricardo Rossello urged the 3.4 million residents of the U.S. territory to seek refuge in one of 460 hurricane shelters before the storm is expected to hit as early as Tuesday night. “This is something without precedent,” Rossello told a news conference. He will ask U.S. President Donald Trump to declare a federal state of emergency even before the storm passes to allow disbursement of U.S. emergency funds.

Gary Randall, head of the Blue Waters Resort on Antigua’s north coast, said the staff had boarded up windows, stripped trees of coconuts and fronds and secured anything that could become a hazard. “I wasn’t that nervous yesterday, but today I‘m nervous,” Randall said by telephone, adding that he expected the hotel’s beach to be swept away and much of the 108-room property to be flooded.

According to Bloomberg, Irma’s current path - headed straight for Florida - has prompted the state to prepare for the "catastrophic" system.

Unlike Harvey, which caused widespread damage, power outages and flooding and taking almost a fifth of U.S. oil refining capacity offline, Irma is a bigger threat to agriculture, with orange juice futures surging.

Airlines have canceled flights across the Caribbean and are adding planes to evacuate tourists, while cruise-line stocks have tumbled.

A strike on Florida would be the first time since 1964 that the U.S. was hit by back-to-back storms of Category 3 or more and only the second time since 1851, Henson said. Irma is now among the 7 most powerful storms on record to cross the Atlantic.

 

“Our biggest concern is Florida citrus,” said Joel Widenor, co-founder of Commodity Weather Group LLC in Bethesda, Maryland. “There is big enough fruit on the trees that the fruit could drop off, it could literally get blown off. The bigger issue is tree damage that is a lot harder to recover from.”

Some more facts: Florida is the world’s largest producer of orange juice after Brazil. About two-thirds of the state’s citrus crop is located in the lower two-thirds of the peninsula. Orange juice for November delivery jumped as much as 6.9 percent to $1.4595 a pound on ICE Futures U.S. Tuesday, the biggest intraday gain for the contract since Jan. 28, 2016. Cotton for December delivery jumped by the 3-cent exchange limit, or 4.2 percent, to 74.88 cents a pound. Aggregate trading for both commodities for this time doubled compared with the 100-day average, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“There is an increasing chance of seeing some impacts from Irma in the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys later this week,” the National Hurricane Center said after Governor Rick Scott declared an emergency.

There is still hope that a direct hit will be avoided: "The expected path has shifted considerably west over the last two days and can still change over the next two," said Olivier Jakob, founder of energy consultant Petromatrix GmbH in Zug, Switzerland. “We cannot yet rule out a move further west with a Louisiana risk.”

Irma’s track could shift as it nears Cuba and Florida, according to Bob Henson, a meteorologist with Weather Underground in Boulder, Colorado. One possibility is a turn to the north that would take the storm up the Florida peninsula.

 

“It is four to five days away,” Henson said. “In hurricane-land that is a pretty long time span.”

Beyond the threat to people and property in the Caribbean, the focus for now is on agriculture, Jakob said. Irma is leading traders to be “long orange Juice futures rather than gasoline futures," he said.

Only three Category 5 hurricanes have hit the contiguous 48 U.S. states, Henson told Bloomberg. The Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 that devastated the Florida Keys, Hurricane Camille in 1969 and Hurricane Andrew that cut across Florida in 1992. Andrew was originally classified as a Category 4 storm only to be upgraded years later after further analysis.

“It is obviously a rare breed,” Henson said. “We are in rare territory.”

* * *

Update 2: While few are willing to admit it yet, according to meteorologist Ryan Maye, Hurricane Irma is still intensifying, with winds up to 155-knots (180 mph) and that extrapolating Saffir-Simpson scale, 158-knots would be Category 6.

* * *

Update: Irma has been upgraded from a Cat 5+ Hurricane to "Potentially Catastrophic" Cat 5++ storm, with winds now near 180 mph gusting to 220 mph, still moving due west at 14 mph.

Here is the latest NHC update:

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 58.4 West. Irma is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest tonight. On the forecast track, the extremely dangerous core of Irma is forecast to move over portions of the northern Leeward Islands tonight and early Wednesday.

 

Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 180 mph (285 km/h) with higher gusts.  Irma is a an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days.

 

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km).

 

The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance aircraft is 931 mb (27.50 inches).

* * *

Irma has strengthened to an "extremely dangerous" Category 5 hurricane, the National Hurricane Center said in its advisory at 7:45am AST. According to the Hurricane center, NOAA and Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate Hurricane Irma has intensified into an "extremely dangerous" Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum winds of 175 mph (280 km/h) with higher gusts.

As of this moment, the hurricane is located 270 miles east of Antigua, moving west at 14 mph. States of emergency were declared in Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands and all of Florida while people on various Caribbean islands boarded up homes and rushed to find last-minute supplies, forming long lines outside supermarkets and gas stations. This morning the Dominican Republic has issued a Hurricane Watch from Cabo Engano to northern border with Haiti; Tropical Storm Watch from south of Cabo Engao to Isla Saona.

According to meteorologists, Irma is the 17th hurricane in the Atlantic on record to have max winds >= 175 mph. Atlantic max wind record is Allen (1980) at 190 mph.

Ultimately, the question is how strong Irma will be when it inevitably makes landfall on the Eastern Seaboard, somewhere in the vicinity of Miami.

Meanwhile, officials across the northeastern Caribbean canceled airline flights, shuttered schools and urged people to hunker down indoors as Hurricane Irma barreled toward the region, now as an "extremely powerful" Category 5 storm. Irma's maximum sustained winds increased to near 175 mph early Tuesday.

According to AP, emergency officials warned that the storm could dump up to 10 inches (25 centimeters) of rain, unleash landslides and dangerous flash floods and generate waves of up to 23 feet (7 meters) as the storm drew closer.

"We're looking at Irma as a very significant event," Ronald Jackson, executive director of the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency, said by phone. "I can't recall a tropical cone developing that rapidly into a major hurricane prior to arriving in the central Caribbean." 

U.S. residents were urged to monitor the storm's progress in case it should turn northward toward Florida, Georgia or the Carolinas. "This hurricane has the potential to be a major event for the East Coast. It also has the potential to significantly strain FEMA and other governmental resources occurring so quickly on the heels of (Hurricane) Harvey," Evan Myers, chief operating officer of AccuWeather, said in a statement.

In the Caribbean, the director of Puerto Rico's power company predicted that storm damage could leave some areas of the U.S. territory without electricity for four to six months. But "some areas will have power (back) in less than a week," Ricardo Ramos told radio station Notiuno 630 AM.

The power company's system has deteriorated greatly amid Puerto Rico's decade-long recession, and the territory experienced an islandwide outage last year. Meanwhile, the governor of the British Virgin Islands urged people on Anegada island to leave if they could, noting that Irma's eye was expected to pass 35 miles (56 kilometers) from the capital of Road Town.

"This is not an opportunity to go outside and try to have fun with a hurricane," U.S. Virgin Islands Gov. Kenneth Mapp warned. "It's not time to get on a surfboard."

Antigua and Anguilla shuttered schools Monday, and government office closures were expected to follow. On the tiny island of Barbuda, hotel manager Andrea Christian closed the Palm Tree Guest House. She said she was not afraid even though it would be her first time facing a storm of that magnitude.

"We can't do anything about it," Christian said by phone, adding that she had stocked up on food and water. "We just have to wait it out."

Both Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands expected 4 inches to 8 inches (10-20 centimeters) of rain and winds of 40-50 mph with gusts of up to 60 mph. Puerto Rico Gov. Ricardo Rossello activated the National Guard, canceled classes for Tuesday and declared a half-day of work. He also warned of flooding and power outages. "It's no secret that the infrastructure of the Puerto Rico Power Authority is deteriorated," Rossello said.

Meteorologist Roberto Garcia warned that Puerto Rico could experience hurricane-like conditions in the next 48 hours should the storm's path shift. "Any deviation, which is still possible, could bring even more severe conditions to Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands," Garcia said. The U.S. Virgin Islands said the school year would open Friday instead of Tuesday.

Gov. Kenneth Mapp said most hotels in the U.S. territory were at capacity with some 5,000 tourists. He noted the storm was expected to pass 40 miles (64 kilometers) north of St. Thomas and warned that the island could experience sustained winds as high as 80 mph

"It's not a lot of distance," he said, adding: "It could affect us in a tremendous way. I'm not saying that to alarm anyone or scare anyone, but I want the Virgin Islands to be prepared."

Residents on the U.S. East Coast were urged to monitor the storm's progress due to the possibility it could turn northward toward Florida, Georgia or the Carolinas. "This hurricane has the potential to be a major event for the East Coast. It also has the potential to significantly strain FEMA and other governmental resources occurring so quickly on the heels of (Hurricane) Harvey," Evan Myers, chief operating officer of AccuWeather, said in a statement.

In Miami-Dade County, the early scramble was on to stock up on hurricane supplies, reports CBS Miami. People were shopping for gasoline, generators, food, batteries, and everything else they'd need get by were Irma to hit the region hard.

"We are not yet at the height of hurricane season and people have not taken steps to get prepared yet," Miami-Dade County Emergency Management Director Curt Sommerhoff said Monday. "We are encouraging them to take those steps today." Miami-Dade officials were to meet Tuesday to assess the danger.

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svayambhu108's picture

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2017/hurricane-irma

Wow just wow there is a trend in here 25 mph in less than 3 hours

 

Sep 05 09:00 GMT 16.6° -57.0° 150 mph 937 mb Hurricane 4

Sep 05 11:45 GMT 16.7° -57.7° 175 mph 929 mb Hurricane 5

Took Red Pill's picture

Time to give Puerto Rico back to Spain!

mtl4's picture

Hopefully this won't be like Andrew, I saw it firsthand when it came through and the aftermath was as close to Mad Max in modern day as one could imagine.

serotonindumptruck's picture

If I recall correctly, in the aftermath of Andrew there were numerous reports of looters masquerading as construction workers and other legitimate day laborers. I also recall prolonged legal battles between homeowners and insurance companies in the months following the hurricane.

chubbar's picture

Gonna be a lot of new big screen TVs for football season being grabbed in the next week or so. The dindus are writing up their lists as we speak, it's christmas in September!

J S Bach's picture

Hey... 150 mph is just a slight breeze on Venus.  All in all, Earth is still a pretty tranquil place.  (I know... not much consolation to the Hurricanians.)

Swampster's picture

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

 

day 6, no sea level pressure loop, ever since they started hyping this storm

YUNOSELL's picture

This is karma for that Florida Professor who got fired for earlier saying the Texas hurricane was karma for Texans who mostly voted for Trump

JRobby's picture

But it's going to push south. I'm sure the sensational articles every 6 hours is helping ad revenues though? I fear for the gulf residents.

Guess it's time to pack in.

eclectic syncretist's picture

One thing's for sure,...somebody is going to get slammed, first by the storm, then by the Clinton Foundation and other opportunistic pariahs. Last nights GFS model runs had Irma blasting multiple states and the as yet unnamed storm behind developing into another major hurricane and doing a laser loop in the Atlantic before delivering the knockout blow behind Irma. Doom porn at it's finest!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nK7W9FIgi-Q

svayambhu108's picture

They think this will stop in the mountains of Cuba, even if it does, the water  is so warm all over the place that it can gain back speed.

Haus-Targaryen's picture

Can you imagine the insurance claims if this thing slides over Miami turning it into a pancake, head outs into the Gulf of Mexico recharges with warmer water and hits Houston again? Or even better -- New Orleans? 

svayambhu108's picture

Irma is already at 180mph third place since records are kept. Good luck Puerto Rico, Cuba, Florida, GOM

svayambhu108's picture

OMG this guys have no options if the go underground they drown if they go upper they are flown away, WTF go for concrete high buildings and stay there, 

Escrava Isaura's picture

There’s something wrong with this title, because Noah told us that won’t be another flood.

These scientists have no clue about water.

I am sticking with Noah.

And I highly recommend that you do so, especially if you live on hurricane’s paths.

 

 

WarPony's picture

None of this will matter about a month after:

https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2012 TC4&orb=1

Asteroid Date(UT) Miss Distance Velocity (km/s) Diameter (m) 2012 TC4  2017-Oct-12 0.1 LD (23K miles) 7.6 16

http://www.spaceweather.com/

 

 

 

 

 

 

eclectic syncretist's picture

Can't you just hear those Floridians looking to the heavans and saying "for fucks sake God, I meant that other swamp, the one up in D.C., not down here!"

eclectic syncretist's picture

Wait!......WTF! 40 foot waves hitting Miami, Pompano, Ft. Lauderdale, West Palm Beach, Jupiter, ect.

When Trump goes to play golf this weekend he might have to rename the place "Mar en el Lago" LOL!

Check these wave height predictions out!

http://www.myfoxhurricane.com/custom/models/ww3/ww3_sigwave_car.html

NIRP Diggler's picture

Those holes playing into the wind are gonna be tough!

Slack Jack's picture

Irma Is Now The Strongest Atlantic Hurricane On Record; Record-Setting Wildfires in Los Angeles; Record temperatures; ya think it might be global warming?

So, why is the global rise in temperatures so worrisome?

For one thing, as temperatures rise good farmland will become desert (e.g., dust-bowl conditions will probably return to the American Midwest).

Another major problem is sea-level rise.

Have a look at http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs2-00/

The U.S. Geological Survey people claim that;

The Greenland ice sheet melting will raise sea-level 6.55 meters (21.5 feet),
the West Antarctica ice sheet melting will raise sea-level 8.06 meters (26.4 feet),
the East Antarctica ice sheet melting will raise sea-level 64.8 meters (212.6 feet),
and all other ice melting will raise sea-level 0.91 meters (3 feet).

For a grand total of about 80 meters (263 feet).

So, what does an 80 meter (263 feet) rise in sea-level mean. Have a look at the following map of the world after an 80 meter rise. It means that over one billion people will have to be resettled to higher ground and that much of the most productive agricultural land will be under water. Fortunately, at current rates, the Greenland ice sheet will take over a thousand years to melt and the Antarctica ice sheet, much longer. However, the greater the temperature rise the faster the ice sheets will melt, bringing the problem much closer. Remember, the huge ice sheet that recently covered much of North America, almost completely melted in only 15,000 years (today, only the Greenland ice sheet, and some other small patches of it, remain). Since then (15,000 years ago), sea-levels have risen about 125 meters (410 feet), only 80 meters to go.

The ice sheets have been continuously melting for thousands of years. What is left of them today, is still melting, and will continue to melt. Human caused global warning will cause this remnant to melt significantly faster. This is a big, big, problem.

For HUGE detailed maps of the "World after the Melt" go to:

http://preearth.net/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=16&t=23

Global temperatures are increasing. And by quite a lot each year.

2016 is the hottest year on record for global temperatures.

This is 0.0380 degrees centigrade hotter than the previous record year which was 2015.

0.0380 is a large increase in just one year.

2015 was the hottest year (at that time) for global temperatures.

This was 0.1601 degrees hotter than the previous record year which was 2014.

0.1601 is an absolutely huge increase in just one year (at this rate temperatures would increase by 16 degrees in a century).

2014 was the hottest year (at that time) for global temperatures.

This was 0.0402 degrees hotter than the previous record year which was 2010.

http://preearth.net/images/temp-anomalies-1880-2017.txt

The conspiracy to hide global warming data.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is given tax money to make global temperature records available to the public. However, certain people at NOAA continually sabotage this aspect of NOAA's mandate. For example, these people have (deliberately) sabotaged the web-page that delivers the temperature records.

Look for yourself:

Go to the page: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/faq/anomalies.php scroll down to the The Global Anomalies and Index Data section and click the download button and see what happens. Well, you get the message:

"Not Found. The requested URL /monitoring-references/faq/anomalies-download was not found on this server."

I guess that the 2017 data must be truly horrible if they have to hide it away.

It turns out that this seems to be the case; NASA reports that:

July 2017 had the hottest average land temperatures on record.

The new July 2017 record was +1.20 degrees centigrade above the 20th century average (of the July data). The previous record average land temperature for July was just last year. It was +1.10 degrees above the 20th century average.

Did the media bother to tell you about this? No!

http://preearth.net/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=16&t=23

Manthong's picture

 

 

You call this a storm?

https://youtu.be/8ZH9ebAZouk

 


Manthong's picture

 

My little sister is no dummy…

She is already up from Naples to Georgia.

Implied Violins's picture

Sixteen meters is basically Chelyabinsk size. Sucks for any city in the way, but not utter world-wide devastation.

Relax. When IT comes, it will be from behind the sun - and the notice will come too late to matter.

Manthong's picture

Well at least we can all go black at the same time.

serotonindumptruck's picture

So if my rough math is correct, this asteroid is going to miss Earth by about 50,000 miles on October 12.

50,000 miles is a pubic hair on a gnat's ass in astrophysics.

 

Implied Violins's picture

0.1 Lunar Distances is actually about 23-25,000 miles, so that does bring it within range of some satellites. But it will miss us.

Manthong's picture

Yes.. a lunar distance is 250,000 miles.. um maybe 256,000 give or take a few thousnd which does not matter unless you are

docking or trying to pinpoint a landing spot. .

But when it comes to close shaves, we called it a small CH back in the military.

25K miles is high satellite geo-sync orbit.

I believe we had a CH shave under 25 K miles last year.

 

The cool thing about shooting at moving or orbital things is that you do not aim at where it is, but where you think is is going to be when the projectile arrives.

 

..and if you are a real astrophysicist you will allot for gravitational tug.

 

..and if you are a real marksman you will factor holdover for windage.

 


 

MillionDollarButter's picture

Here is the almost nonexistent damage caused by that asteroid impacting:

http://impact.ese.ic.ac.uk/cgi-bin/crater.cgi?dist=20&distanceUnits=1&di...

I don't think you could even make a decent trade off of it.

Is-Be's picture

The Electric Universe model (Thunderbolts project) posits that the airburst was an electrical discharge. (Voltage potential).

These objects explode like capacitors.

Swampster's picture

just another propaganda arm of the globalist neocoM ashkeNAZI jew world order....

Escrava Isaura's picture

JRobby,

You have the facts wrong . Let’s correct them, and understand better what happened.

A Republican press release was issued a day after John Bates, a former NOAA scientist not involved with the study, published a blog post that accused the paper’s lead author, Thomas R. Karl, former director of NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, of having “his ‘thumb on the scale’— in the documentation, scientific choices, and release of datasets—in an effort to discredit the notion of a global warming hiatus.”

Prompted by Bates’ blog post, the press release issued by Republicans accused Karl and his co-authors of data manipulation.

But in interviews with the Associated Press and E&E, an online energy and environmental news outlet, Bates said he had not accused his colleagues of data manipulation.

Bates told the AP on Feb. 6 that there was “no data tampering, no data changing, nothing malicious” involved with his colleagues’ study. “It’s not trumped up data in any way shape or form,” he said.

Rather, Bates claimed Karl and his group hadn’t followed NOAA protocol

Karl and his co-authors’ 2015 analysis of surface temperature exhibited “more than twice as much warming as did the old analysis at the global scale” between 1998 and 2012, consequently discounting the IPCC report’s global warming “slowdown.”

To come to this conclusion, the group published two reanalyzed sets of data in the 2015 paper — surface temperature data from the land and from the ocean — dating back to 1880. We’ll discuss the ocean data first.

The researchers state in their paper that the doubling in warming was “clearly attributable” to the reanalysis of the ocean data. This is due, in part, to the fact that the oceans cover 71 percent of Earth’s surface, so changes in ocean temperature data analysis significantly impact the overall analysis of the global warming rate.

But why did the data need to be adjusted?

Since ocean temperature data used in the Science study came from two different sources — buoys and ships — the full data set needed to be adjusted to accommodate for differences in how each source measures temperature.

This means that in the large scheme of things, the rate of global warming remains unchanged, whether or not there was a “slowdown” in the rate of global warming in the beginning of the 21st century.

To top it off, Karl and his co-authors point out that “it is also clear that the long-term trend would be significantly higher … without corrections” to the raw data. In other words, compared with the raw data, the adjusted data show less warming over the long-term.

Why? Because ocean surface temperature data greatly impacts the overall global warming trend and a lot of 20th century ocean data comes from ships, which are systematically too warm. As a result, scientists have to actually adjust the long-term trend downward to accommodate for this bias.

As Hausfather said when we spoke to him over the phone, “If scientists are cooking the books, they’re cooking them in the wrong direction.”

http://www.factcheck.org/2017/02/no-data-manipulation-at-noaa/

 

HopefulCynic's picture

Factcheck is not a good source it is run by Talmudic scum. Are you one of those Brazilian Jews Escrava? Those demented and perverted scum that think that own Brazil? 

 

I don't care much about GW or AGW, I like green i like plants and they like co2 and also love water, so let's give them what they need, and we will benefit from having much more oxygen which is needed obvioulsy, just look at those gringos and leftist scum that are borderline retarded, clearly they could have benefitted from having more oxygen. 

 

I also have property near the beach and could benefit from having a closer shoreline. ;)

HopefulCynic's picture

Claramente no sul, não ganham muimuitos furacões, com a quantidade de água que eles carregam é como se Noe não soubesse do que ele estava falando e, portanto, nem

Loose Caboose's picture

The Keys will be gone.  The bridges cannot stand if this thing maintains its strength and trajectory.  

TheObsoleteMan's picture

Key West is already gone. That place is GAYTOPIA. They have taken it over completely. They even have fag festivals that are so perverse people are told how to explain them to their children {how do you explain depravity?}. Key West will share the same fate as it's role-model Sodom.

snr-moment's picture

should be fun to see how cuban ear drums hold up.

Palerider1861's picture

Wrath of the statues if it hits Nola.

Joe Davola's picture

Whatever happened to Slick Willy's plan to put up a bunch of really big fans to blow the hurricanes out to sea?

krispkritter's picture

I think you got that wrong.  His plan was for 'his fans'(interns) to blow him while on the ship Hurricane out at sea.

Bigern's picture

BP has some good stuff. Good guy.

"Stay safe".

consider me gone's picture

Doom porn: Don't start your day without it! Weez all gonna die!

Tiwin's picture

If such a thing existed , why arent a string of Supertyphoons marching on North Korea and Syria?

Crickets.

HopefulCynic's picture

Tin foil hat answer: Because it is so secret that the reptilians have to make it look like those weapons don't exist, you know to throw suspision off, the US and Russia barely use them.

 

Nevermind that a single lightning bolt has about 100000 times the energy than the HAARP and SUBA systems can handle.