Toronto Home Price Bubble Bursts Into Bear Market

Tyler Durden's picture

Authored by Wolf Richter via WolfStreet.com,

With surprise rate hike, Bank of Canada turns against housing market...

Home sales in the Greater Toronto Area, the largest housing market in Canada, plunged 34.8% in August compared to a year ago, to 6,357 homes, with sales of detached homes and semi-detached homes getting eviscerated:

Sales by type:

  • Detached houses -41.6%
  • Semi-detached houses -37.3%
  • Townhouses -27.5%:
  • Condos -28.0%.

Even as total sales plunged, the number of active listings of homes for sale soared 65% year-over-year to 16,419, with 11,523 new listings added in August, according to the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB).

“The relationship between sales [plunging] and listings in the marketplace today [soaring] suggests a balanced market,” the report explained, adding hopefully:

“If current conditions are sustained over the coming months, we would expect to see year-over-year price growth normalize slightly above the rate of inflation. However, if some buyers move from the sidelines back into the marketplace, as TREB consumer research suggests may happen, an acceleration in price growth could result if listings remain at current levels.”

And the average price of all homes, at C$732,292 in August, plunged 20.5% from the crazy peak in April (C$920,761). By this measure, it has now entered a bear market.

The average price in April had shot up 30% year-over-year.

To cool this nutty business, the Ontario government introduced a laundry list of measures on April 20. It included most prominently a 15% transfer tax on nonresident foreign speculators. That appears to have done the trick.

Given the enormous price gains in recent years, the market remains hyper-inflated, and the four-month downturn into a bear market hasn’t even brought prices back to the year-ago level, with the average price for all types of housing up 3%, and the condo price up 21.4% year-over-year.

To cool a similarly nutty housing bubble in Vancouver, the government of British Columbia had passed a year ago similar legislation with a 15% nonresident foreign speculator tax. But worried about an outright implosion of the bubble, it has since been subsidizing with taxpayer money down-payments aimed at first-time buyers and condos, which has inflated the condo bubble and condo speculation to new heights.

Politicians – they’re desperately dependent on extracting property taxes from homeowners – don’t want the world’s most majestic housing bubble to implode. They just want it to remain stable so that taxes can be extracted from willing homeowners that have gotten rich off years of house-price inflation. But for now, the Ontario government is letting the market ride.

The TREB report said that the sharp drop in average prices “points to fewer high-end home sales this year compared to last.” So are speculators with the most money abandoning the market?

Even the Bank of Canada has been warning home buyers – particularly speculators – all year long about big potential losses. Then in July, it raised its target for the overnight rate by 0.25 percentage points. Another rate hike was expected in December, to match the Fed’s presumed rate hike.

But today, in a surprise move, it raised rates again by 0.25 percentage points, to 1% – and there are now expectations that it might raise its target rate a third time later this year. In response, the loonie jumped 1.3% against the US dollar this morning.

These rate hikes “would just further dampen” the housing market, explained Bank of Montreal chief economist Doug Porter, adding that the surprise increase so soon after July’s rate hike “accentuates” the Bank of Canada’s urgency to raise rates.

“So I wouldn’t brush it off – I think that will put a bit more upward pressure on some of the medium and longer-term mortgage rates as well, and of course the variable rates will move almost instantaneously,” he said.

Variable-rate mortgages account for about 30% of all mortgages in Canada. So these rates ticked up after the July hike; they will after this hike; and if there’s another hike later this year, they’ll tick up again. A 0.75 percentage points increase in the interest rate on a C$800,000 mortgage would raise the annual interest costs by C$6,000.

Homeowners with variable-rate mortgages will now have to come up with more money to pay for their homes. And potential homebuyers are looking at steeper costs – something they will likely keep in mind, now that easy price gains may no longer be so easy, and that the Bank of Canada, rather than just warning about it, is actively working to deflate the housing bubble.

And the housing bubble in the US? Read… The US Cities with the Biggest Housing Bubbles

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Looney's picture

 

A bear market in Toronto?

I hope it’s a Polar Bear market…   ;-)

Looney

YUNOSELL's picture

Toronto ahead of the curve

 

global systemic risk contagion in 3....2.....1......

 

(ok, maybe one or two more FED board members retire first before the big bust)

Joe Trader's picture

Here's the pluge-o-meter for Canadian real estate, at least this is SOME kind of benchmark

http://www.chpc.biz/plunge-o-meter.html

847328_3527's picture
"Get Out Now, This Is A Devastating, Nuclear Housing Downturn"

 

Reminds me of irma.

auricle's picture

All the bubble buyers will walk away from their investment, ensuring prices snap back to trend. Who wants to own a mortgage that is 2-3x the value of the home. 

anarchitect's picture

Mortgages in Canada, with the exception of Alberta I believe, are full recourse.  The bank can come after you if you walk and the sale of your house doesn't cover the mortgage.

asteroids's picture

Its too late. The money has been spent. Tens of thousands are in way way over their head. In a year or so, there will be a wave of defaults and bankruptcies. The banks and the Loonie will be punished.

U4 eee aaa's picture

can't wait to buy a house for one bitcoin

spdrdr's picture

Or, indeed, a tulip bulb.

johnnycanuck's picture

'Bah.. You haven't updated your view of reality.  Some many years ago Toronto passed the the mark of visible minorites being the majority.

These are the people who are being farmed most by the system.

Never underestimate the cunning of the old and rich.

yrad's picture

What goes up...

GatorMcClusky's picture

Crowd psychology is interesting isn't it?

thedespised's picture

it's frightening. They trust their feelings, nothing more.  That's insanity in the world of deceit.

Golden Showers's picture

Puff Puff Give: That's the shit.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wbw-kxmjtCY

Fuckin' up the rotation.

PeeramidIdeologies's picture

Pcchhh

5 blunts

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=f277mWYmCZo

5 blunts...now lemme deflate my lungs,
Like the Toronto housing market,
This bitch is done,
Government rolled up,
hands full of guns,
We see whatcha got,
now give us some,

The cheap-money boom spilled out for miles around,
Pushing up prices on my stomping grounds,
Wtf Poloz, you fuckin clown
Exactly who's interests do you serve?
And who tha fuk is tryna take him at his fukin word?
This bank patsy paper popper has been throwing money out of helicopters,
This cocksucker, this motherfucker, blew a fukin cum bubble that's bound to pop now,
Never thought twice about ya mom and pop's,
or the new home buyers down payments dropped,
Countries still running a trade deficit,
How's that low loonie looking you hypocrite?
The BOC can suck my dick,
Man pass the fukin blunt I need a hit...
ooohhh

opport.knocks's picture

Looks to be true.

Older Toronto 1940s house down the street was sold for $650k a couple of years ago. New owner completely updated it and listed it for $999k in the spring. Didn't sell.  Just relisted for $788k today. Given that they updated everything, furnace, windows, roof, kitchen and basement, he will be lucky to break even.

jimcg's picture

The shineboy and other amatuers are the last to get in...and then they can't get out. Wash, rinse, repeat....about every dozen or so years.

847328_3527's picture

It's a mental disease this housing stuff.

My friend bought a new house in Houston when oil was $100 and they paid $585k and put in $100 in upgrades, expecting to live in it for a couple of years then sell it t $1 million as oil rose and more energy peeples moved in.

Well, things did not turn out that way. They had it listed most of last year for various prices with various doo dads in their ads with the realtor being beaten to death with open house after open house. Finally it sold for $650k after being empty for about a year.

If you plan on retiring in a place, that's one thing; but this flipping stuff or job hopping from city to city can get you hurt.

opport.knocks's picture

Particularly in Canada, unless you are planning on staying in a home for over 5 years, the government (Land Transfer Tax),the Real Estate agent and the lawyer are the only ones who make money.

robertocarlos's picture

I hate those fucks on TV who buy for $250k, put $100k into the house, and then expect it will sell for $500k. Fuck them! Their shit renovation plans aren't worth $150k.

robertocarlos's picture

Please, the best in the business is Jillian Harris of Love It or List It Vancouver and when she puts 100k into a project house that lists for 2 million the house goes up in value by 150k tops.

Abbie Normal's picture

The problem with those Canadian shows is they never follow up so the viewer never knows if the house actually sold for the market price or was auctioned off.  At least with the Flip or Flop shows, they mention at the end whether the house sold and for how much.  Canadian real estate is best described as catching a knife on the way up or down.

MD's picture

> the four-month downturn into a bear market hasn’t even brought prices back to the year-ago level, with the average price for all types of housing up 3%, and the condo price up 21.4% year-over-year

So prices are still higher now than they were a year ago, and the article calls this a bust? I'm calling major BS. Down 20% from April? It's called seasonality, spring is always the best time to sell a house.

There's no bust here.

pitz's picture

Prices peaked and plateaued in 2013 on identical properties. 

847328_3527's picture

Won't bust until they control the Loot flooding in from China, Russia, Pakistan, etc.

pitz's picture

Only problem is, such loot isn't even showing up in Canada.  Pakistan, lol.  Are you kidding?

robertocarlos's picture

Your typical Pakistani doctor came here with almost nothing and is currently working the booth at an outdoor car parking lot.

SRV's picture

Exactly how homeowners go bankrupt... detached homes have dropped almost 45% in 4 months!

This thing's goin down... and on top of everything so far, in a couple of months new regs will require mortgage and renewal approvals must be based on the mortgage rate PLUS 2%, to allow for future interest rate moves.

The market has gone from insane blind auctions with agents laughing hysterically at even a single condition... to lawsuits all over the place over buyers refusing to close, crashing prices and sales, and offers chock full of conditions and lowball offers... all in 4 months!

And rising interest rates will decimate many who only qualified through very low variable mortgages... some will not be able to qualify at the higher rate.

All that Newton physics stuff can often be put on hold and delayed, but at some point... well, that's now! 

Bay of Pigs's picture

Care to comment on the massive RISE in listings? Oh yeah, nothing to worry about, lol.

And btw asshole, the article stated clearly where prices were a year ago.

jbwilson24's picture

No. Sales and prices have both crashed big time. This isn't just seasonal. Listings are way way up right now. 

 

Do you really think listings spike in september??? Nuts. 

 

Listings are up 64% or more, sales are down 40% or more. That is not usual.

 

Nice spin. You must own a toronto house.

novictim's picture

So when can we expect this bubble-bear to shred real estate up and down the West Coast of North America?

pitz's picture

About time.  Sales mix shifts could only carry the Toronto housing market so far in the post-2013 peak era. 

TheSilentMajority's picture

Just now the same price from 4 months ago eh.

Cool down hosers.

Cluster_Frak's picture

once price collapses 50%, we can talk about bears.

johnnycanuck's picture

When you are as old as I am, this is like watching reruns.  Except for the ZIRP aliens.  That's a whole new dimension from somewhere out there in outer space. 

I blame the Ferengi and their millenias old obsession with capturing the Money Changing markets..

Blazing in BC's picture

My buddy's friends aunt knows a guy who said that he heard that condos might be where the money is.

FrankDrakman's picture

We just signed a 5-year closed for 2.95% for $800,000 on our (previously valued) $1.4 million home. Monthly is $3200 and change. Consdering we live in the heart of midtown, I think that's amazingly cheap  for a semi-detached 2,000 sq ft home with a detached garage; a decent 3-bedroom is at least $2500 out in the burbs; in midtown, you'd be looking at $4,000 and up.

847328_3527's picture

$800,000 for a 2,000 sf house?

Is it on 20 acres?

Versengetorix's picture

That sounds reasonable but you live in a Muslim Caliphate...run by a Marrxist bull-dyke.

jimcg's picture

Insane zero interest rate monetary policy, people's greed, and a generally false peception of value created by the real estate industry and with the aid of the media has made accurate price discovery impossible...intentionally so.

Sorry, but it was never worth $1.4M...some moron may have paid $1.4M, but it was never worth that.

 

Herdee's picture

Would you rather put your money with the government knowing how incompetent they are? Dah

abgary1's picture

That's what happens when you have total fucking retarded central bankers who pursue perpetual economic growth and inflation.

Put an ednd to central banks.

How's that zero interest policy working for pensions?

johnnycanuck's picture

" total fucking retarded central bankers"

In Canada during the time in question, that would be Mark Carney, ex Goldman guy.

For his outstanding dis-service to Canada, he got a promotion to Governor of the Bank of England.

 

abgary1's picture

Exactly and he has also been instructing nations around the world to needlessly spend trillions to prepare for manmade global warming that does not exist.

Not only does he not know anything about economics but he knows even less about climate science.

England can keep the retard.

johnnycanuck's picture

He had the tools at his fingertips to mitigate the damage Stephen Harper's Consweratives looney tunes all in on resources and selling out Canada to foreign Corporations policies wrought on Canada's economy, but instead he drew his $350,000 per year salary and whistled past the graveyard while Bohemian Grove Harper sold out his country.

I'm not talling about climate change, which btw you should take a gander toward Florida right now and think about that.

squid's picture

Oh fuck off.

Its Harper's fault.

 

SHeese......

You live in Ontario, don't you?

Voted for a Dyke Premier and 300 billiion in Provincial debt. Not you voted in Trans-lover wonderboy to do the same to the rest of the country.

 

Mob rule parliament is what Canada is and if someone should get it that's West of Thunderbay, then he's Hitler. They did the same to Diefenbaker.

 

Squid

JohnGaltUk's picture

Now he is over here fucking the place up.

pitz's picture

ZIRP has been fabulous for pensions by inflating all kinds of financial assets, particularly bonds and financials/insurers which are heavily held by pensions.

abgary1's picture

Just like the housing market,I doubt that will end well if interest rates normalize.

 

robertocarlos's picture

Then they should sell the assets now because they've topped out.