Could Kurdish Independence Spark An Oil War?

Tyler Durden's picture

Authored by Zainab Calucuttawala via OilPrice.com,

As the date of the Kurdish independence referendum approaches, oil industry moguls should be concerned about an oil production war between Iran and headless Iraq.

The Kurds are expected to vote on their political status in late September. A vote in the affirmative would mean that Iraq would lose a chunk of its northern areas, which includes the crucial Kirkuk oilfield and its surrounding reserves.

The latest news from the election committee shows that the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) is doing the most it can to increase international participation in the election. On Monday, authorities announced that they had removed a key requirement for diaspora voters participating in the elections. Kurds participating in the e-voting platform will no longer be required to present a ration card to be able to cast their vote through September 25th. Iraqis who have been living abroad for several years, even decades, no longer hold a valid version of the United Nations-conferred identification. The new provision just requires that voters prove their current Iraqi citizenship via relevant documentation.

In roughly one week, the election authority will count votes and announce the political and territorial future of Iraq. It has been a rocky 100 years for the country since the 1916 Sykes-Picot agreement divided Asia Minor on an imperialist paradigm, without regard for cultural variations within the territory.

Believe it or not, soon after Sykes-Picot, Iraq became a kingdom ruled under a Hashemite monarch related to the current king of Jordan. In 1958, the Iraqi army overthrew the monarchy in a development known as the July 14 Revolution, which brought the rebel leader Abd al-Karim Qasim to power and pulled Iraq closer to the Soviet Union.

Decades of Ba’athist leadership later, the U.S. government toppled Saddam Hussein’s regime in Baghdad, based on a diplomatic campaign that insisted the Iraqi military had been hiding weapons of mass destruction. Since then, reconstruction has been the name of the game in Iraq, but the past few years of conflict with the deadly Islamic State has made it difficult for Baghdad to focus on creating a prosperous future for its citizens.

In the meantime, the failure of the Iraqi Army to effectively guard the northern territories from the ISIS threat formed a stronger Kurdish Peshmerga army, proud of its heritage and happily willing to sacrifice blood, sweat, and tears for the land they call their own. With Kirkuk firmly in the grips of the KRG, and with ISIS at bay, the Kurds are swinging for their full sovereignty on domestic and foreign issues.

Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi considers the vote unconstitutional and illegitimate – and it very well may be. The fact that voting requirements are changing this late in the game would make any election observer at least raise an eyebrow.

Official figures say Kirkuk represents 10 percent of Iraq’s total production capacity, which means Baghdad may soon lose its position as the second largest OPEC producer to Iran, should Kurdistan separate. New extraction projects across the country will gradually raise Iraq’s output profile, but similar efforts are underway in Iran as well. Analysts fear that an oil output war may ensue between Iraq and Kurdistan post-separation, but the larger petroleum conflict may arise between Iran and Iraq—two countries with similar levels of output fighting—to rebuild their oil industry after years of international ostracism and domestic warfare, respectively.

To be fair, it is not clear whether the KRG would inherit Iraq’s OPEC membership if it becomes its own entity. De facto OPEC leader Saudi Arabia and its allies strongly disapprove of any move towards an independent Kurdistan, so it is unlikely that a membership invite will be forthcoming. The United States and the United Kingdom are also pushing for Iraq to keep its territorial integrity in order to focus on the country’s economic growth. Without the support of key Arab and non-Arab allies, it will be hard for the Kurds to make use of any political capital in international circles.

An outline of the challenges related to a separate Kurdistan does not mean the division should not happen at all or even that it should not happen now. There will always be reasons to delay the independence vote. It is a question of oil profits after all. Now or later, this referendum will never be allowed to take place without objection.

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gigadeath's picture

Who would benefit? I wonder.... Hmmmm..... /sarc. Yinon Plan continues.

strannick's picture

Iraq sided with Iran, so America supports Kurdistan in Iraq. Best intentions ftom the indispensible nation 

"We are great because we are good"

-Hillary Rodam Clinton

 

Broken_Trades's picture

Article missed the largest oil/geopolitical news:

ERBIL, Kurdistan Region — Russian energy firm Rosneft and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) have agreed to extend a pipeline to export natural gas from the Kurdistan Region to Turkey, according to a Reuters report.

Why do Kurds love Israel?

ERBIL, Kurdistan Region — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced his country's support for the establishment of a state for the people of Kurdistan on Tuesday, making him the first head of state to support a "legitimate" process for Kurdistan's independence.

Bibi says:

"Israel rejects the PKK [Kurdistan Workers' Party] and considers it a terrorist organization, as opposed to Turkey, which supports the terror organization Hamas," he added.

Meanwhile, Turkey is "threatening" sanctions.  True that the life blood of Kurdistan flows through Turkey - Also true that Turkey is building all of the highways an dmajor projects for the Kurds right now.  Barzani let in the turks to stop Bagdhad during the fight against ISIS.  Erdogan let Barzani send peshmerga fully armed through Turkey into Syria. All huff and puff, these guys have an arrangement.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-iraq-kurds-turkey/erdo...


D7z's picture

"Why do Kurds love Israel?"

If syria landmass gets divided someday the kurds get a big part too, isreal wants a kurdistan happen as soon as possible so the kurds wants syrian landmass and in the same time you will see isreal demand golan heights and lots of western parts for a greater Isreal.

I bet lines are already drawn and agreements finished behind closed doors, just Assads in the way. Bibi thinks the Kurds can start the process of shattering syria without war.

johngaltfla's picture

Oil war no? But an independence vote would trigger a joint war by Iran and Turkey which will put the U.S. in the middle of a bloodbath.

evoila's picture

This whole Kurdish independence non-sense is exactly that, non-sense. They are landlocked between Iraq, Syria, Turkey, and Iran - none of which want to see an independent Kurdistan. I mean Turkey would lose 1/3 of its mass to such a thing, and they will thus fight tooth and nail to make sure it doesn't happen.

Innocent people will die for no good reason, all borne out of the ignorance of the west and the Israelis who don't understand what they are dealing with. I mean, just look at Nuttyahoo. He speaks a few words of Farsi during his UN speech, and he thinks that's going to convert Iranians over to his side. Not a single Iranian buys what he is selling.

We are lead by idiots, who let themselves be lead by the neocons, AIPAC, the Saudis, and anybody else willing to throw money at them. In short, we are doomed.

stinkypinky's picture

Could an oil war that's lasted a century spark Kurdish independence? <-- fixed it for ya

a Smudge by any other name's picture

And hey did I miss the part which explains the legal legitimacy of such a vote in the Iraqi constitution? Or any extant body of law for that matter?

falconflight's picture

The tiny parcel titled the Golan Heights is already officially a part of Israel.  Israel, and only recently and probably because of Turkey's ErDOGan, has openly voiced support of a national homeland for the distinct ethnicity of Kurds.  Syria is a false artificial nation, just like Lebanon and TransJordan...so really its dismemberment wouldn't be a calamity.

hestroy's picture

STFU, kike! You are a completely artificial nation, your "history" is completely fabricated. You are just a bunch of filthy Khazars. Pure evil.

AllBentOutOfShape's picture

I give Assad and Iraq my full blessing to go ahead and exterminate these Israeli loving, Antifa loving, land squatting Kurdish little rats.

cossack55's picture

Good tough fighters. Perhaps they deserve it

Mazzy's picture

Kurds were the only people there who had a semblance of civilization.

The world wants to decentralize.  TPTB want to centralize. 

Brazen Heist's picture

This is a myth perpetuated in the Western media in an attempt to win sympathy for their cause. Kurds are treacherous by nature, communist at heart and they sure don't mind some of that LGBT rainbow business liberals drool over. They are the West's perfect pawns in destabilizing the Middle East in order to poison the well for all as the US empire wanes and leaves the region defeated.

Mazzy's picture

Maybe there's a smidge of truth to your words, but there's one thing I cannot fault them for: they are highly nationalistic.

Volkodav's picture

     He told correct.

 

BobEore's picture

Communist at heart? Treacherous by nature? Whose myths are you perpetuating, and why? Nobody gets to 'sum up' the Kurds in a sentence or two, because the subject population is all over the map... literally and figuratively...

in political affinities, religious persuasions, socio-economic status, as well as aspirations. Not to mention, even in something as basic as language "the Kurds" are divided into three major dialects with glancing mutual comprehension. In sum... they fail to fit inside of any "exceptionalist" box for easy inclusion in whatever meme de jour captivates the zheeple.

You have Sunni Kurds - allied with the ethno-supremacists in Ankara - "Shia" Kurds, which are further subdivided into numerous factions since the days of the Kizilbashi and the fractious wars between "Muslim" Iran and "Muslim" Ottomans, "crony-capitalist" Kurds, "nationalist" Kurds, "anti-nationalist" Kurds, sio-Kurds, anti-sionist Kurds,leftist Kurds, rightist Kurds, middle o the road Kurds, and Yazidi Kurds - some of who call themselves "Kurds" and others of whom say they ain't Kurds.

"Communists" you say? Laughable misrepresenation of the usual occidental master of the universe at his computer console. Even the "leftist" wing is divided into factions, the largest of which long ago dropped the Marxist branding for a "libertarian municipallsm" that has more in common with "Ron Paul" and the NRA than Karl Marx and the Merikan lunatic left.

And then... there's the real game changer going on in the middle of all that. Kobane and the cantons marked a sea change of political activity which has only began to hit the muddled east. People... of both genders... picked up guns and began to fight back... against religious fanatics, tyrants and their bagmen... dopey tribalist institutions which arrange every aspect of life on patriarchal lines, inhibit initiative, social harmony and co-existence... meddling foreign states with the usual imperialist designs...

and became to build a SECULAR-BASED alternative structure to all that bullshit which bears more in common with Catalonia 1936-38 ... when anarchist militia fought both Stalinist and fascist brands of totaliitarian statism to a standstill...

than to your witless 'alt-right' fantasies derived from glancing inspection of a terrain you've never been to. The cantons, in fact, have no political affinity at all with the Sraeli-puppet state KRG and the Barzani looter gang. Therefore there is no possibility of a "Kurdistan" stretching from Iran to the Mediterranean, anymore than Switzerland is gonna have a seaport soon.

Drone on dude, whilst cheerleading for yur fave statist entity... it's all the zheeple ever do.

BarkingCat's picture

I don't know and frankly I do not care.

I know one thing - Israel cannot be trusted.

veritas semper vinces's picture

No Turdistan,I mean Kurdistan ,would be another Zionist Entity in the ME.And this will not be allowed again.All the neighboring states won't allow it ,plus there is a new Bear sheriff in town.Who has won the war in Syria.

So,I can say with certainty,that the Eagle is so f*cked,it's starting to look like a Duck.

Schmuck Raker's picture

"Could Kurdish Independence Spark An Oil War?"

Let's hope so... the ME is just so booooring these days.

Volkodav's picture

     bad link..this one should be okey...

     http://russia-insider.com/en/military/us-secret-services-tried-nab-29-russian-troops-syria-and-got-their-butts-kicked-russian

     update:  checked Rus Mil forums and agree to R. Insider report.

     many graphic pics remains so many killed terrs....

     Russia MPs there would be much Chechen, with mix everybody else...example:

     https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6PEzqc7kUQA

 

 

Blanco Diablo's picture

Kadrov's Chechens are some bad ass fighters. Job well done!

earleflorida's picture

think azerbaijan just siding with turkey and russia

Cluster_Frak's picture

Well, azeris are close to turkey and have no beef with them. Just look at tourist travel statistics. Russia? Well, Russian as bad as they are, emncipated women. Azeri women, despite being muslim for most part, do not wear burkas and walk three steps behind the male in the family. Azeri women stand their ground and often wear the pants in the family.  Azeri Islam benefited from mother RussiaN whixh made it cosmopolitan.

Mazzy's picture

There's a fairly heavy urban-rural divide within Islam too.  You could go to Baghdad 10 years ago (maybe it's different now, maybe it's worse, maybe better) and see women in capri-ish pants, a little dip in the blouse, and 80% of their hair.  But go to the villages and it was full coverings.

earleflorida's picture

https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/war/images/map-nagorno-karabakh-04.gif

note: zionist have been in the lower steppe in iraq, iran, and syria kurdish regions for quite some tyme--- but assad won!!!

note2:   the armenian massacre/genocide was turkey's doing, but both the turkish kurd's/syria kurds were paramilitary forces helping the slaughter for gaining the western borders of armenian land

Broken_Trades's picture

And now Armenians peacefully live in Christian areas in Kurdistan.

sinbad2's picture

Iraqi women were quite free under Saddam, but after the US invaded the US installed religious zealots, as it always does.

People forget that the US was founded by religious zealots(Puritans) and they share the same sort of fucked religious values as ISIS.

Arab fanatics constantly  say God is great, American fanatics constantly say praise the Lord, both are cut from the same cloth.

Brazen Heist's picture

They also benefited alot from gas.

The Ayatollah of Iran (Khamenei) is an Azeri by ethnicity. Most people don't know, but a large chunk of where the Azeri people reside is actually inside Iran.

Azerbaijan is historically closer with Turkey, and Armenia (their arch nemesis vis-a-vis Nagorno Kabarakh) is friendlier with Russia. I think Russia is trying to mediate in Nagorno Kabarakh, which both sides would appreciate. We remember last year some uprisings happened in Armenia around the same time? Yeah, those were Nuland-style Neocon color protests, no coincidence.

francis scott falseflag's picture

But... but...but... That would mean that the Israeli Air base in Azerbaijan was just

another Putin ploy to deceive the West about whom they can count on where

the rubber meets the road.

 

What a naughty man.   s/

 

Slippery Slope's picture

Oil War? Kurd independence is going to spark a shooting war.

earleflorida's picture

the kurd's were treated by saddam like garbage---

saddam is dead and his ba`athist sunni minority gonzo! the suuni pop. is now pretty much sequestored in lala land on the western border with syria.

fact is the iraqi sunni's loath the ISIS for there indescriminate killing of women, children and elderly.

there is a great deal of apathy in the ME today for all arab's disregarding ones own religious dogma/ ideology with what's happened in syria, shaming all to rethink Mohammad teachings!!!

they all know, sunni or shiite they could be next for the zionist abattoir via ussa/britain!?!

fact is the majority shiite iraqi gov't has to give fair and equal representation in there congress to all, and that means the sunni and kurds. period!

last point, and its a big one is the share of revenue regarding the oil in he north, in which the shiite gov't has been cheating them out of via corruption or just???... they haven't had enough tyme to get saddam treatment out of their minds!

sometymes it takes generations, but sadly the world doesn't have generations left with war drums and alarms blaring from jerusalem?

i wonder what the guy upstairs is thinking about the whole mess where religion was born and now satan sits on the temple of salvation now the throne of moneychangers!

Cluster_Frak's picture

It's the other way around. Once you get control of oil, you want independence from government cancer, hence war.

Mazzy's picture

I keep telling millenials this: once you start your own business or even consider doing so....

Brazen Heist's picture

Israel fully supports Kurdish independence, thinks its a great idea!

I hope these Kurdish pawns of the Anglo Zionists, in their attempt to re-draw Sykes Picot, are confronted with a full embargo from Turkey, Iran, Iraq and Syria. Then we'll see if Israel gets any Kurdish oil.

 

falconflight's picture

Fuck you and Gaza you goat fcking inbred.  Here's your terrorist deal making:

 https://www.platts.com/latest-news/natural-gas/london/turkeys-botas-sign...

hestroy's picture

Yes, yes, kikes are all inbred. That's why you all are degenerated. Evil imbeciles.

VIS MAIOR's picture

FUCK JEWS! ))) 

francis scott falseflag's picture

Do you mean could it spark another oil war?

 

There's been one going on since the invasion of Iraq.

Or maybe since the independance of South Sudan 

. . . _ _ _ . . .'s picture

Everything you need to know about the Kurdish situation from Thierry Meyssan, Sarah Abed and the Voltaire Network - 5 short articles:

.
"While the Syrian Arab Army, the Russian aviation and Hezbollah are preparing to finish off Daesh, the Pentagon is planning a new war against Syria, this time with Kurdish troops. Just as the mission of the Caliphate was to create a Sunnistan straddling Iraq and Syria, so the mission of « Rojava » is to create a Kurdistan straddling the two states, as the Pentagon has been publicly stating for the last four years."
After the Caliphate, Rojava

.
"According to the magazine Israel-Kurd based in Erbil, the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu and Massoud Barzani, the self-appointed President of the future independent Kurdistan, have reached a secret agreement. Tel-Aviv is committed to installing 200 000 Israelis of Kurdish origin in Kurdistan."
200,000 Israelis expected in “Kurdistan” once independence is declared

.
"Like the Palestinians, the Kurds aspire to dispose of their own state. However, since the dislocation of the Ottoman Empire, some of their leaders have favored alliances with some imperialist powers rather than those with their neighbors. These leaders - and the families attached to them - have turned into an imperialist joker to disturb the Middle East. They tried to establish puppet states, successively in Iran, Iraq and Syria, that is to say on the lands of those who had welcomed and protected them. Sarah Abed tells us their story."

Part 1
The Kurds: Washington’s Weapon Of Mass Destabilization In The Middle East

Part 2
The Kurdish Connection: Israel, ISIS And U.S. Efforts To Destabilize Iran

Part 3
The Myth Of The Moderate Kurdish Rebel

sinbad2's picture

This latest Amerzionist plan is good news for Russia.

This will complete the Turkish realignment, and end any chance of the US gaining control over energy supplies to Europe.

The Russians must really be thankful that American stupidity is helping them.

falconflight's picture

Israel will be a major supplier of NG to Europe, dummy.

sinbad2's picture

If the pipeline gets built, it would be the deepest pipeline, 3 kliks deep in places. Because the pipeline is so expensive, the gas would be expensive, and not competitive economically with cheap Russian and Iranian gas. To be feasible it would require the US to strongarm European countries to pay more than the market price.

ALSO, the gas field covers territory belonging to Egypt Lebanon and Syria. Israel can steal the gas belonging to its neighbours, because Uncle Samuel threatens the owners.

Uncle Samuel is on deaths door, and once he is gone, Israel will not survive.