Watch Live: Janet Yellen Explains How Unwinding The Fed's Balance Sheet Will Be Like "Watching Paint Dry"

Tyler Durden's picture

Is 'the committee to save the world' about to 'unsave the world'? Not according to The Fed who see their balance sheet unwind as boring a "watching paint dry."

Of course, aside from the fact that The Fed has been unable to forecast its way out of a paper bag for decades, more than a few market participants believe otherwise, including BofA who recently warned..."the paint may be drying but the wall is about to crumble."

"If Bonds Are Right, Stocks Will Drop Up To 20%." This point can be summarized simply as follows: there is $1 trillion in excess TSY supply coming down the line, and either yields will have to jump for the net issuance to be absorbed, or equities will have to plunge 30% for the incremental demand to appear.

 

An unwind of the Fed’s balance sheet also increases UST supply to the public. Ultimately, the Treasury needs to borrow from the public to pay back principal to the Fed resulting in an increase in marketable issuance. We estimate the Treasury’s borrowing needs increase roughly by $1tn over the next five years due to the Fed rolloffs. However, not all increases in UST supply are made equal. This will be the first time UST supply is projected to increase when EM reserve growth likely remains benign. Note both the 2003-06 and 2009-13 increase in UST supply were met with the largest increase in Chinese buying of USTs. With this unlikely to repeat, we believe price sensitive buyers need to step up.

 

Our analysis suggests this would necessitate a significant rise in yields or a notable correction in equity markets to trigger the two largest remaining sources (pensions or mutual funds) to step up to meet the demand shortfall. Again, this is a slower moving trigger that tightens financial conditions either by necessitating higher yields or lower equities.

However, we're sure that Janet Yellen, just months away from leaving the sinking ship, will calm all fears during today's press conference...

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Hammer823's picture

It will be like watching paint dry bc, just like no one watches paint dry, no one will actually be wathcing to see if the Fed actually does what it says it will do.  After all, they are above all reproach, aren't they?

Ghost of PartysOver's picture

Can NOT watch.  That voice is like finger nails on a chalk board.

BaBaBouy's picture

Made to Order... Hello Recession ...

giovanni_f's picture

"...wireless phone fees kept down the inflation..."

That's where I left the show.

YUNOSELL's picture

"Our understanding of inflation is imperfect" 

STOP PRINTING MONEY!!!!!

YUNOSELL's picture

What do you know? Gold drops down again with her talking, LOL

nope-1004's picture

Whatever she says it's 100% a lie.

 

knukles's picture

HOLD THE BOAT

It doesn't matter, immediately
Take a look at the average maturity of the Fed's balance sheet.
It all doesn't roll off overnight and in fact a lot of it is some pretty long maturity stuff.
See for yourself

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/h41.htm#h41tab2

Ghost of PartysOver's picture

For those playing along at home, Did you BTFD?    Last week ES Balance zone with POC 2494.  Surprise! Algo's bought the Yellen Turd out of it.  Or maybe the PPT.  Will it hold today?  I don't know but it is worth a few bar tabs to play along.

Hint:  9/12 to 9/15

Slack Jack's picture

Why not get Janet to do something about global warming?

So, why is the global rise in temperatures so worrisome?

For one thing, as temperatures rise good farmland will become desert (e.g., dust-bowl conditions will probably return to the American Midwest).

Another major problem is sea-level rise.

Have a look at http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs2-00/

The U.S. Geological Survey people claim that;

The Greenland ice sheet melting will raise sea-level 6.55 meters (21.5 feet),
the West Antarctica ice sheet melting will raise sea-level 8.06 meters (26.4 feet),
the East Antarctica ice sheet melting will raise sea-level 64.8 meters (212.6 feet),
and all other ice melting will raise sea-level 0.91 meters (3 feet).

For a grand total of about 80 meters (263 feet).

So, what does an 80 meter (263 feet) rise in sea-level mean. Have a look at the following map of the world after an 80 meter rise. It means that over one billion people will have to be resettled to higher ground and that much of the most productive agricultural land will be under water. Fortunately, at current rates, the Greenland ice sheet will take over a thousand years to melt and the Antarctica ice sheet, much longer. However, the greater the temperature rise the faster the ice sheets will melt, bringing the problem much closer. Remember, the huge ice sheet that recently covered much of North America, almost completely melted in only 15,000 years (today, only the Greenland ice sheet, and some other small patches of it, remain). Since then (15,000 years ago), sea-levels have risen about 125 meters (410 feet), only 80 meters to go.

The ice sheets have been continuously melting for thousands of years. What is left of them today, is still melting, and will continue to melt. Human caused global warning will cause this remnant to melt significantly faster. This is a big, big, problem.

For HUGE detailed maps of the "World after the Melt" go to:

http://preearth.net/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=16&t=23

Global temperatures are increasing. And by quite a lot each year.

2016 is the hottest year on record for global temperatures.

This is 0.0380 degrees centigrade hotter than the previous record year which was 2015.

0.0380 is a large increase in just one year.

2015 was the hottest year (at that time) for global temperatures.

This was 0.1601 degrees hotter than the previous record year which was 2014.

0.1601 is an absolutely huge increase in just one year (at this rate temperatures would increase by 16 degrees in a century).

2014 was the hottest year (at that time) for global temperatures.

This was 0.0402 degrees hotter than the previous record year which was 2010.

http://preearth.net/images/temp-anomalies-1880-2017.txt

The conspiracy to hide global warming data.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is given tax money to make global temperature records available to the public. However, certain people at NOAA continually sabotage this aspect of NOAA's mandate. For example, these people have (deliberately) sabotaged the web-page that delivers the temperature records.

Look for yourself:

Go to the page: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/faq/anomalies.php scroll down to the The Global Anomalies and Index Data section and click the download button and see what happens. Well, you get the message:

"Not Found. The requested URL /monitoring-references/faq/anomalies-download was not found on this server."

I guess that the 2017 data must be truly horrible if they have to hide it away.

It turns out that this seems to be the case; NASA reports that:

July 2017 had the hottest average land temperatures on record.

The new July 2017 record was +1.20 degrees centigrade above the 20th century average (of the July data). The previous Why not get Helen to do something about global warming?

So, why is the global rise in temperatures so worrisome?

For one thing, as temperatures rise good farmland will become desert (e.g., dust-bowl conditions will probably return to the American Midwest).

Another major problem is sea-level rise.

Have a look at http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs2-00/

The U.S. Geological Survey people claim that;

The Greenland ice sheet melting will raise sea-level 6.55 meters (21.5 feet),
the West Antarctica ice sheet melting will raise sea-level 8.06 meters (26.4 feet),
the East Antarctica ice sheet melting will raise sea-level 64.8 meters (212.6 feet),
and all other ice melting will raise sea-level 0.91 meters (3 feet).

For a grand total of about 80 meters (263 feet).

So, what does an 80 meter (263 feet) rise in sea-level mean. Have a look at the following map of the world after an 80 meter rise. It means that over one billion people will have to be resettled to higher ground and that much of the most productive agricultural land will be under water. Fortunately, at current rates, the Greenland ice sheet will take over a thousand years to melt and the Antarctica ice sheet, much longer. However, the greater the temperature rise the faster the ice sheets will melt, bringing the problem much closer. Remember, the huge ice sheet that recently covered much of North America, almost completely melted in only 15,000 years (today, only the Greenland ice sheet, and some other small patches of it, remain). Since then (15,000 years ago), sea-levels have risen about 125 meters (410 feet), only 80 meters to go.

The ice sheets have been continuously melting for thousands of years. What is left of them today, is still melting, and will continue to melt. Human caused global warning will cause this remnant to melt significantly faster. This is a big, big, problem.

For HUGE detailed maps of the "World after the Melt" go to:

http://preearth.net/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=16&t=23

Global temperatures are increasing. And by quite a lot each year.

2016 is the hottest year on record for global temperatures.

This is 0.0380 degrees centigrade hotter than the previous record year which was 2015.

0.0380 is a large increase in just one year.

2015 was the hottest year (at that time) for global temperatures.

This was 0.1601 degrees hotter than the previous record year which was 2014.

0.1601 is an absolutely huge increase in just one year (at this rate temperatures would increase by 16 degrees in a century).

2014 was the hottest year (at that time) for global temperatures.

This was 0.0402 degrees hotter than the previous record year which was 2010.

http://preearth.net/images/temp-anomalies-1880-2017.txt

The conspiracy to hide global warming data.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is given tax money to make global temperature records available to the public. However, certain people at NOAA continually sabotage this aspect of NOAA's mandate. For example, these people have (deliberately) sabotaged the web-page that delivers the temperature records.

Look for yourself:

Go to the page: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/faq/anomalies.php scroll down to the The Global Anomalies and Index Data section and click the download button and see what happens. Well, you get the message:

"Not Found. The requested URL /monitoring-references/faq/anomalies-download was not found on this server."

I guess that the 2017 data must be truly horrible if they have to hide it away.

It turns out that this seems to be the case; NASA reports that:

July 2017 had the hottest average land temperatures on record.

The new July 2017 record was +1.20 degrees centigrade above the 20th century average (of the July data). The previous record average land temperature for July was just last year. It was +1.10 degrees above the 20th century average.

Did the media bother to tell you about this? No!

http://preearth.net/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=16&t=23

The average land temperatures for August 2017 are second only to those of last year, August 2016.
record average land temperature for July was just last year. It was +1.10 degrees above the 20th century average.

Did the media bother to tell you about this? No!

http://preearth.net/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=16&t=23

The average land temperatures for August 2017 are second only to those of last year, August 2016.

bluerivercard's picture

Temperatures have only been recorded for c2 hundred years. What evidence is there that any changes are not part of normal cyclical variations?

TuPhat's picture

You waste screen space jack.  Seriously you need some cranial warming to get your brain going, or maybe a transplant.

Slack Jack's picture

Why not get Janet to do something about global warming?

So, why is the global rise in temperatures so worrisome?

For one thing, as temperatures rise good farmland will become desert (e.g., dust-bowl conditions will probably return to the American Midwest).

Another major problem is sea-level rise.

Have a look at http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs2-00/

The U.S. Geological Survey people claim that;

The Greenland ice sheet melting will raise sea-level 6.55 meters (21.5 feet),
the West Antarctica ice sheet melting will raise sea-level 8.06 meters (26.4 feet),
the East Antarctica ice sheet melting will raise sea-level 64.8 meters (212.6 feet),
and all other ice melting will raise sea-level 0.91 meters (3 feet).

For a grand total of about 80 meters (263 feet).

So, what does an 80 meter (263 feet) rise in sea-level mean. Have a look at the following map of the world after an 80 meter rise. It means that over one billion people will have to be resettled to higher ground and that much of the most productive agricultural land will be under water. Fortunately, at current rates, the Greenland ice sheet will take over a thousand years to melt and the Antarctica ice sheet, much longer. However, the greater the temperature rise the faster the ice sheets will melt, bringing the problem much closer. Remember, the huge ice sheet that recently covered much of North America, almost completely melted in only 15,000 years (today, only the Greenland ice sheet, and some other small patches of it, remain). Since then (15,000 years ago), sea-levels have risen about 125 meters (410 feet), only 80 meters to go.

The ice sheets have been continuously melting for thousands of years. What is left of them today, is still melting, and will continue to melt. Human caused global warning will cause this remnant to melt significantly faster. This is a big, big, problem.

For HUGE detailed maps of the "World after the Melt" go to:

http://preearth.net/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=16&t=23

Global temperatures are increasing. And by quite a lot each year.

2016 is the hottest year on record for global temperatures.

This is 0.0380 degrees centigrade hotter than the previous record year which was 2015.

0.0380 is a large increase in just one year.

2015 was the hottest year (at that time) for global temperatures.

This was 0.1601 degrees hotter than the previous record year which was 2014.

0.1601 is an absolutely huge increase in just one year (at this rate temperatures would increase by 16 degrees in a century).

2014 was the hottest year (at that time) for global temperatures.

This was 0.0402 degrees hotter than the previous record year which was 2010.

http://preearth.net/images/temp-anomalies-1880-2017.txt

The conspiracy to hide global warming data.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is given tax money to make global temperature records available to the public. However, certain people at NOAA continually sabotage this aspect of NOAA's mandate. For example, these people have (deliberately) sabotaged the web-page that delivers the temperature records.

Look for yourself:

Go to the page: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/faq/anomalies.php scroll down to the The Global Anomalies and Index Data section and click the download button and see what happens. Well, you get the message:

"Not Found. The requested URL /monitoring-references/faq/anomalies-download was not found on this server."

I guess that the 2017 data must be truly horrible if they have to hide it away.

It turns out that this seems to be the case; NASA reports that:

July 2017 had the hottest average land temperatures on record.

The new July 2017 record was +1.20 degrees centigrade above the 20th century average (of the July data). The previous record average land temperature for July was just last year. It was +1.10 degrees above the 20th century average.

Did the media bother to tell you about this? No!

http://preearth.net/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=16&t=23

The average land temperatures for August 2017 are second only to those of last year, August 2016.

NugginFuts's picture

Seriously, dude, piss off already. 

jmack's picture

Can you explain why temperatures started rising prior to excessive man made carbon release?

peddling-fiction's picture

Paint dries quickly with lots of hot air.

Squid Viscous's picture

Yeah my Verizon bill keeps getting lower... sure

what the fuck is she talking about?

nope-1004's picture

One of my personal favorites from the past:

Rising food prices in developing nations can be attributed to the citizens of those nations seeking more sophisticated diets.

- Bernocchio, 2012.

Implied Violins's picture

They do have more...spices...to choose from: glyphosate, chlorpyrifos, malathion, DDT, Agent Orange - every 'developing' nation gets to experiment with whatever will increase their chocolate rations from 20 grams to 18 grams.

FreeShitter's picture

She might have been an item before electricity...

Garciathinksso's picture

word aroud FED water cooler is that the old hose hound sucked her way to the top. Greenspan abides

twh99's picture

Maybe before there was light....

EX-floor hedger's picture

...Just imagine Yanet Jellen going down on you...Noshing on the one-eye trouser snake...

Conax's picture

Oh thanks, I got an innie now.

Eyes Opened's picture

"She's so HOT ..."

Obviously you've been inhaling the fumes whilst watchin the paint drying....  lol..

38BWD22's picture

 

 

I'd rather watch paint dry than Uncle Janet talking.

debtor of last resort's picture

His paint dried up 40 years ago.

Francis Marx's picture

Thing escalated quickly. even gold dumped.

HRH Feant2's picture

So did silver. I was hoping gold would drop back down under $1300 and silver under $16 so I could stock up.

Did you notice the 10YR @ 2.28 and the 30YR @ 2.82.

VIX is down.

Squid Viscous's picture

make it quick Janet, remember you have to be home by sundown or you turn back into a lizard

The Count's picture

Off with their heads! Thats the only way to deal with these parasites.

Don Sunset's picture

The party is OVER for now!

lester1's picture

And who is going to buy $50 billion a month of toxic assets the Fed is trying to dump ???

NotApplicable's picture

The only question is, by which proxy?

Bay of Pigs's picture

Maybe Belgium, the Caribbean banks or Japan?

FixItAgainTony's picture

Saudi Arabia is due to go broke soon since petro commodities are down and Al-Qaeda futures are off, maybe they'll whole hog in.

The Count's picture

The SNB

The Swiss can print as many Francs as they want to without any other oversight.

lester1's picture

And who is going to buy $50 billion a month of toxic assets the Fed is trying to dump ???

mtndds's picture

AAAARRRRRRRRRRGGGGGHHHHHHH!!!  She used the word TRANSITORY!!!!!   I cant get away from that phucking word!!  AAARRRRRRRGGGHHH!!!!

BeepBeepRichie's picture

Bridge troll chart porn...

GETrDun's picture

Who the frick is going to buy the garbage that the fed has on its balance sheet?

vote

>Joe Public

>Goldma Suks

allamerican's picture

algo's don't know sell shit, buy shit or build the fucking wall.