Complete Preview Of Theresa May's "Florence" Brexit Speech

Tyler Durden's picture

On Friday - a day many have called  "the most important day for Brexit since the referendum" - Theresa May will delivers her much anticipated Brexit speech in Florence. The roughly 5000-word speech is scheduled at begin around 09:15 EDT and is expected to provoke an immediate response from Brussels.

Among the flurry of last minute preparations, earlier this week, the Telegraph reported that Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson will resign if May veers toward a "Swiss-style" EU arrangement in her speech (more here). Earlier today, BBC Political Editor Laura Kuenssberg reported that May’s Friday speech will say the UK willing to pay €20BN during transition period “BUT only if we have access to single market + some form of customs union.” As RanSquawk added, the €20BN does not cover long term liabilities, so the eventual total departure bill to taxpayers will potentially be far higher.

Taking a step back, here is a bigger picture preview of what is known - and unknown - about tomorrow's speech courtesy of RanSquawk

What will May Say?

Few specific details are available on what UK Prime Minister Theresa May will cover in her speech, to be delivered from Florence, Italy, on 22 September. However, it is expected that the material will be significant given that the UK delayed the fourth round of Brexit talks (which were set to take place in the week of 25 September). A spokesperson for May has been quoted as saying that the speech would outline the UK's hopes for a "deep and special partnership" with the EU following Brexit. May was said to have discussed the particulars with her Cabinet on Thursday 21 September. At the time of publication, no firm details have been leaked, although a BBC reporter was told that May will seek a transitional agreement, with a time frame of two years being touted.

"In the wake of slow progress on Brexit negotiations, the United Kingdom may be preparing to adjust its approach," analysts at Stratfor write. "Brexit negotiations have achieved limited progress so far, and the EU side has warned that talks are still far from the 'sufficient progress' necessary to move to their second phase, which is meant to address the future bilateral relationship" which the UK was eager to begin in October.

One theory that is gaining traction, therefore, is that the UK will offer some concessions to the EU which will help move the discussions on.

Tensions Within May's Cabinet

The secrecy surrounding her speech was causing tension in May's Cabinet. Reports in the Telegraph newspaper suggested that Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson would tender his resignation if May pivoted towards a 'Swiss-style' arrangement. The news drove sterling higher, with traders seemingly taking comfort from the idea that some of the more extreme, 'hard' voices around May would leave the Cabinet, allowing her to pursue a 'softer', more amenable deal.

However, the story was denied and it has been subsequently reported that May made moves to appease Johnson; the Telegraph reported "the Cabinet truce over Britain's future payments to the EU involves paying substantial sums to the bloc, but no further payments after Britain's transition period."

The FT later wrote that PM May believes the UK can achieve a "bespoke" final deal with the EU, and May reportedly said neither a Canadian-style nor a Norway-style deal for single market was appropriate for the UK.

Divorce Bill

The Financial Times this week reported that the UK was set to make an "offer to fill a post-Brexit EU budget hole of at least €20bn" in an attempt to settle its so-called "diovrce bill." The FT adds "UK officials have indicated Britain would ensure no member state would have to pay more into the EU budget or receive less money from it until 2020, the end of EU's current long-term budget planning period. The expected hole in those two years after Brexit would be at least €20bn when payments the UK receives back from Brussels are excluded.

"A figure of €20bn is pretty close to estimates for what the UK's net contribution to the EU budget would have been under the status quo 'Remain' scenario," say analysts at RBC Capital, "however, it is unlikely that monies relating to the current EU budget period will be the end of the financial settlement negotiation between the UK and the EU." Later reports, which followed Ma's Cabinet meeting, suggested any financial settlement - which May would not directly address in her speech - would be contingent on single market access.

It is unclear how the EU might respond, given earlier demands from some suggesting a figure of as much as €60bln may be needed.

"On the EU side, any response next week which hints progress is sufficient to move towards discussing the future UK-EU trade deal before year end should be supportive of a view that the two-year Article 50 process isn't too far off-track," RBC says.

Transitional Period

May is also expected to acknowledge the need for a transitional period to avoid a 'Brexit cliff', where the UK would continue to abide by EU rules in some areas, while phasing out a withdrawal in other areas. "While the British government seemed to be aiming for a two-year transition, we have been told May prefers a longer hiatus of three years, which would give her enough time to prepare for elections, to be held on their scheduled date, in 2022," analysts at SGH Macro argue.

* * *

Want more? Here is another preview, this time from Barclays?

Media speculation is mounting over the content of UK PM May’s Brexit Speech in Florence tomorrow. This is the first big Brexit-specific speech by the PM following the General Election. It is designed to outline the basis for negotiations at the fourth round of EU-UK negotiations in Brussels next week. Following that, the UK Conservative Party Conference will take place on 1-4 October, where PM May will need to satisfy her own party members with regards to the tone set over Brexit. Hence, the challenge for the PM in her speech will be to appear constructive to her EU partners, so as to advance the negotiation process, while at the same time not angering those within her own party, who may prefer a less accommodative course vis-a-vis the EU in the negotiations.

May is expected to outline three key issues – The transition, the EU withdrawal bill, and the future relationship.

  • Transition – Highlights were provided by Chancellor Hammond last week. He insisted that the UK will leave the Single Market and the Customs Union in March 2019. The UK will seek to maintain the status quo of trade and access. A two-year transition period is seen as most likely to stop cabinet in-fighting.
  • EU Withdrawal bill – PM May is likely to commit to the UK paying what is deemed reasonable during a transition period. Her traditional style has been vague and there is a chance she may continue with this approach, and stop short of stating an actual figure that could leave herself open to attack during the upcoming Tory Party conference. However, press speculation is mounting of a £20bn figure as a starting point for negotiations, conditional upon access to the single market and some form of Customs Union (source: BBC). We expect an eventual figure in the region of £40-50bn may be negotiable. The reaction to this from Brussels and the UK media will be important for PM May going into the Tory Party conference.
  • Future relationship – Hammond gave some colour last week, focusing on financial services, and recognised concerns about the UK potentially deviating from high EU regulatory standards. We expect PM May to reiterate the importance of regulatory homogeneity in the short run. May is likely to try to insist on the need for the UK to negotiate trade deals, even if legally, this cannot begin until the second phase of negotiations.
  • Reaction following the speech: The key to watch here would be the reaction from EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, as well as the UK press. The speech lays the foundations for the EU-UK negotiations next week, and EU officials have voiced increasing frustration over delays, bearing in mind that the principles for the first phase of negotiations, covering  guarantees, commitments on citizens rights, are due to be agreed between October to December before it is possible to move on to trade issues in Phase 2.

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HRClinton's picture

May, winter is coming.

Expect to get 6" of Snow in May.

giovanni_f's picture

The Anglos creeping on the floor like beggars so that the continent spares them economic armaggeddon. As compensation they can feel great killing civilians as "allies" of their master US in Libya and Irak.

Game over, Angloimperialists. You caused more harm to the world than any other country. Although your legacy as aggressor nation continues to persist across the Atlantic it its a relief that your might is gone forever. 

totenkopf88's picture

The English should just get out of the EU already- this is like some long, drawn-out divorce. And $20B to leave? Janet prints that before she exits her crypt in the morning.

giovanni_f's picture

Most in the EU wouldn't object to a hard Brexit, believe it or not, as England has been highly dispensable in every respect to the political EU-project. Problem is that the English elite has no idea how deep their economic ship will sink if going for a hard Brexit. Having lost the leverage to disrupt the political process of the EU, they have become an extremely endangered species in the zoo of world powers as even the US sees less and less value in their "ally" as a tool of influence.They can serve as an unsinkable aircraft carrier against the Russians, though, so they can always count on the support of the likes of John McCain.

There is one leverage the English have: IF they somehow manage to become successful - which I hope but have no reason to believe given how corrupt and unfathomablly incapable the English elite has become - the rest of the enslaved EU sheeple would have a clear demonstration that not being governed by a EU-Junta does not mean the end of the world. There is an almost Orwellian EU-is-strength propagana op running 24/7 - the spin meister would have a harder time to convince theri inmates with a Brexit turning out successful.

To be clear, the average English are a lovely and funny crowd. I am talking about the devils in the tradition of Rodes, Churchill, Thatcher, Blair, May.

totenkopf88's picture

May should have BritBob say a few words about Gibraltar.

wisehiney's picture

I'd tag that for, uh, a quid, a pound or a sterling x 10.

Except tonight.

You could get some for cheap PM May.

The old May Cemetery in the next county has our common kindred there.

You May lasses could never hold back you hot asses from us.

Now could you?

Last good chance here for you.

But, Sterling Silver only.

None of that funny money your side of the family dreamed up.

Juggernaut x2's picture

Pound Sterling has always had a cool ring to it

Deep In Vocal Euphoria's picture

whores and criminals......

 

one after another...........

 

may, the rotten whore fascist masquerading like a conservative....

 

surrounding herself with remainers....................

 

ha ha ha..........the freak show...from the usa to the uk.....who's your favorite freak that you vote for?? choose one............

Deep In Vocal Euphoria's picture

a good little whore goy........doing as daddy telling her.............................................sucking the EU cock and swallows................................

pizdowitz's picture

Hey YouKay! When are going to start treating people as humans, for god's sake?  Humans!

And dump the Kay thing, while you're at it, and the Queen fetish with it, you perverts...

You always have been wrong.. Including  driving  on the wrong side of the street. And what the fuck is a "Dual Carriageway"?

An ape for the mayor of London? Wake up. We are in the XXI century already...  Darwin was an idiot, and ahould have been strait-jacketed... Why did you let him free?

Nobody has done more damage to this planet, than you fucking fascists...

floosy's picture

"Nobody has done more damage to this planet, than you fucking fascists..."

Ghengis Khan

Caesar(s)

Stalin

Mao

Hitler

Bush

Jews

Muslims

Etc, etc

 

What do you think a fucking "Dual carriageway" is dipshit?

Darwin? Oh....you're a creationist are you?  What a cretin.

By the way fucktard, in the 21st Century stop using Roman Numerals.

 

I agree about the ape thing though

pizdowitz's picture

None of the "damagers" you have listed was a fascist. Morons, for sure, but not fasicsts.

No need to be nasty..... Too much black pudding?

Pliskin's picture

You can never have too much black pudding!

Mr 9x19's picture

driving  on the wrong side of the street

 

+1 just for this one

Pliskin's picture

I'd like too see May draw a big O on a piece of paper and hold it up during the speech...

"This, this is what we are willing to pay the EU.  Now, who wants to keep trading with us, hey Ireland do you still want to trade with your biggest trading partner?  Het Italy, how are those Russian sanctions working out for your businesses?  Wanna trade with us?  Hey Poland, do you want to keep trading with us, or would you prefer us to send back all the Poles in the U.K.?  Hey Spain, Portugal, how are all those Brit tourists working out for ya?  Want to keep trading or will I impose huge taxes on flights to your countries?  Hey France how are those 20 million Brit tourists and that 40 billion a year in trade working out for you?  Anyone else?  No!" 

Drops the MIC gives the middle finger and walks off the stage.

Now THAT'S a leader!

 

kellys_eye's picture

May's future is already sealed but whether the Tories are happy seeing their tenure in Downing Street continue is key to what May will offer the EU.

Anything other than ZIP, ZILCH, EFF ALL etc will wind up the backs of millions of Brexiteers, many of them Tory voters, that could seal the parties fate in the next GE.

The Governments understanding of the utter loathing for the EU is woefully short.... and the actions of the EU themselves has only gone to turn previous Remainers into staunch Leavers - some say the figure, should a re-run of the Referendum happen 'today' would be 70% for 'out'.

Anything other than ZIP, ZILCH, EFF ALL etc will be tantamount to a confession that May and her cronies are going to stab 70% of the British Electorate in the back.

 

 

Pliskin's picture

'May and her cronies are going to stab 70% of the British Electorate in the back.'

That's a given!

Chuck DeBongo's picture

I couldn’t agree more!

The UK needs a leader who is willing to stand up for the UK. That is what we have been missing for the last 50 or so years. We have always had leaders who are more cornered about other countries or “the bigger picture” and that the U.K. is just a side issue.

However, I expect May’s speech will just been more jawboning to the EU and more “let’s be conciliatory...”

steaua's picture

Ireland - drunk can't even hear May speaking

Italy - US puts sanctions against Russia, once UK is out are they going to go against uncle Sam? Ha ha ha ha, thought so. Would Italy on its own go against US? Ha ha ha

France, Spain, Portugal - tell May to get her old drunk farts from the beaches snd send them somewhere else

Poland tells May to send the polish workers back and replace them with Pakistani  ... ha ha ha

UK has little to offer so little to negociate. The empire is gone, UK is a small country, can't pretend to be in the big boys club (us, china, russia)

totenkopf88's picture

This place gets weird at night

wisehiney's picture

Not really.

I'm so hot for her, I'm so hot for her 
I'm so hot for her and she's so cold 
I'm so hot for her, I'm on fire for her 
I'm so hot for her and she's so cold 
I'm the burning bush, I'm the burning fire 
I'm the bleeding volcano 
I'm so hot for her, I'm so hot for her 
I'm so hot for her and she's so cold 
Yeah, I tried re-wiring her, tried re-firing her 
I think her engine is permanently stalled 
She's so cold she's so cold 
She's so cold cold cold 
Like a tombstone 
She's so cold, she's so cold 
She's so cold cold cold like an ice cream cone 
She's so cold she's so cold 
I dare not touch her my hand just froze 
Yeah, I'm so hot for hot for her, I'm so hot for her 
I'm so hot for her and even so 
Put your hand on the heat, put your hand on the heat 
Aw c'mon baby, let's go 
She's so cold, she's so cold, cold, she's so c-c-c-old 
But she's beautiful, though 
Yeah, she's so cold 
She's so cold, she's so cold 
She was born in an arctic zone 
She's so cold she's so cold, cold, cold 
I dare not touch her my hand just froze 
She's so cold, she's so goddamn cold she's so 
Cold cold cold she's so cold 
Who would believe you were a beauty indeed 
When the days get shorter and the nights get long 
Lie awake when the rain comes 
Nobody will know, when you're old 
When you're old, nobody will know 
That you was a beauty, a sweet sweet beauty 
A sweet sweet beauty, but stone stone cold 
You're so cold, you're so cold, cold, cold 
You're so cold, you're so cold 
I'm so hot for you, I'm so hot for you 
I'm so hot for you and you're so cold 
I'm the burning bush, I'm the burning fire 
I'm the bleeding volcano

I'm so hot for her, I'm so hot for her 
I'm so hot for her and she's so cold 
I'm so hot for her, I'm on fire for her 
I'm so hot for her and she's so cold 
I'm the burning bush, I'm the burning fire 
I'm the bleeding volcano 
I'm so hot for her, I'm so hot for her 
I'm so hot for her and she's so cold 
Yeah, I tried re-wiring her, tried re-firing her 
I think her engine is permanently stalled 
She's so cold she's so cold 
She's so cold cold cold 
Like a tombstone 
She's so cold, she's so cold 
She's so cold cold cold like an ice cream cone 
She's so cold she's so cold 
I dare not touch her my hand just froze 
Yeah, I'm so hot for hot for her, I'm so hot for her 
I'm so hot for her and even so 
Put your hand on the heat, put your hand on the heat 
Aw c'mon baby, let's go 
She's so cold, she's so cold, cold, she's so c-c-c-old 
But she's beautiful, though 
Yeah, she's so cold 
She's so cold, she's so cold 
She was born in an arctic zone 
She's so cold she's so cold, cold, cold 
I dare not touch her my hand just froze 
She's so cold, she's so goddamn cold she's so 
Cold cold cold she's so cold 
Who would believe you were a beauty indeed 
When the days get shorter and the nights get long 
Lie awake when the rain comes 
Nobody will know, when you're old 
When you're old, nobody will know 
That you was a beauty, a sweet sweet beauty 
A sweet sweet beauty, but stone stone cold 
You're so cold, you're so cold, cold, cold 
You're so cold, you're so cold 
I'm so hot for you, I'm so hot for you 
I'm so hot for you and you're so cold 
I'm the burning bush, I'm the burning fire 
I'm the bleeding volcano

 

I'm so hot for her, I'm so hot for her 
I'm so hot for her and she's so cold 
I'm so hot for her, I'm on fire for her 
I'm so hot for her and she's so cold 
I'm the burning bush, I'm the burning fire 
I'm the bleeding volcano 
I'm so hot for her, I'm so hot for her 
I'm so hot for her and she's so cold 
Yeah, I tried re-wiring her, tried re-firing her 
I think her engine is permanently stalled 
She's so cold she's so cold 
She's so cold cold cold 
Like a tombstone 
She's so cold, she's so cold 
She's so cold cold cold like an ice cream cone 
She's so cold she's so cold 
I dare not touch her my hand just froze 
Yeah, I'm so hot for hot for her, I'm so hot for her 
I'm so hot for her and even so 
Put your hand on the heat, put your hand on the heat 
Aw c'mon baby, let's go 
She's so cold, she's so cold, cold, she's so c-c-c-old 
But she's beautiful, though 
Yeah, she's so cold 
She's so cold, she's so cold 
She was born in an arctic zone 
She's so cold she's so cold, cold, cold 
I dare not touch her my hand just froze 
She's so cold, she's so goddamn cold she's so 
Cold cold cold she's so cold 
Who would believe you were a beauty indeed 
When the days get shorter and the nights get long 
Lie awake when the rain comes 
Nobody will know, when you're old 
When you're old, nobody will know 
That you was a beauty, a sweet sweet beauty 
A sweet sweet beauty, but stone stone cold 
You're so cold, you're so cold, cold, cold 
You're so cold, you're so cold 
I'm so hot for you, I'm so hot for you 
I'm so hot for you and you're so cold 
I'm the burning bush, I'm the burning fire 
I'm the bleeding volcano

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MLEHfgupVg4

Youri Carma's picture

U.K. Prime Minister calls for automatic blocking of terrorist content
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/prime-minister-calls-for-automatic-bl...

Theresa May: Tech firms must remove extremist content within two hours
http://www.politico.eu/article/theresa-may-tech-firms-must-remove-extrem...

European Commission and IT Companies announce Code of Conduct on illegal online hate speech
http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-16-1937_en.htm

CODE OF CONDUCT ON COUNTERING ILLEGAL HATE SPEECH ONLINE
http://ec.europa.eu/justice/fundamental-rights/files/hate_speech_code_of...

EDRi and Access Now withdraw from the EU Commission IT Forum discussions
https://edri.org/edri-access-now-withdraw-eu-commission-forum-discussions/

DIGITAL SINGLE MARKET – COMMISSION UPDATES EU AUDIOVISUAL RULES AND PRESENTS TARGETED APPROACH TO ONLINE PLATFORMS
http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_MEMO-16-1895_en.htm

pizdowitz's picture

"Tech firms must remove extremist content within two hours"

OK, remove her then..

smacker's picture

Yes, the problem with Theresa May's calls for removal of "hate" stuff from the Internet deemed to be offensive etc is that neither she nor her cronies have ever articulated any definition of what constitutes such content and so many of the decisions will be left to the likes of ISPs, PhacePhuq, Twatter and Goolag etc.

It has all the ingredients of a further set of rules that blocks or removes anything which the ruling elites don't like. The slippery slope towards 1984.

Ghordius's picture

smacker, leaving the EU means more power to whoever sits in the UK Parliament. can we agree on this?

and, looking at the current debate there about the "Great Repeal Bill", a lot of this power is going to go to Her Majesty's govenrment, i.e. the Cabinet of Ministers and the Prime Minister, whoever it is, at the moment

so the sum of it is that Brexit will give more power to either May or Corbyn. can we agree on this, too?

as you often point out, you have lots of reasons to distrust May and "the ruling elites" of the UK. I get the impression you regard them as borderline fascists

from other comment of yours, your regard for Corbyn "the unreconstructed Marxist" and his Labour is even worse

nothing we Continentals, we the other 27 can do for you. particularly if the UK also exits the ECHR (European Court of Human Rights) besides getting rid of the ECJ (European Court of Justice), as May hinted to

you Brexit, you get "the full dosis of May (or Corbyn)". can we agree on this conclusion?

(my upside of the thing is that as soon as Brexit is there, I can ask you to get rid of that avatar of yours, or get an explanation why you are convinced that it is a fair depiction of reality)

modric's picture

You still have not got over Brexit yet have you. You sound like a bitter old man.

Ghordius's picture

we don't even know how exactly Brexit will look like, do we?

that's the whole reason why May's "Florence Speech" is so interesting to wait for

smacker's picture

"smacker, leaving the EU means more power to whoever sits in the UK Parliament. can we agree on this?"

Absolutely. It was and remains my greatest concern about the UK going it alone. The only solution is for Brits to take a more active role in oversight of .gov.

BTW, the same situation exists for any entity that wants independence from a federalised super-state etc, including if any US State voted for secession from Washingtown. Same situation exists in Catalonia (if Rajoy doesn't abandon democracy altogether with a boat load of riot police offshore to do a "Franco").

When weighing things up we all need to consider the various facts and other important information available to us. I did this a long time ago because to me, the EU is stuffed full of old commies, Marxists and fascists and fails to account for the huge sums of cash that flow into its coffers. Then of course there's the corporate lobby groups in Brussels which outnumber those in Washingtown.

What I'm saying is that Brexit is not a plain sailing solution for Britland but it provides the opportunity for us to do our thing. Being a member of the EU prevents that.

I will review use of my avatar at the appropriate moment :-)

Ghordius's picture

+1, it's seldom to see such a well structured reply

I have found lately a YouTube video where Jacob Rees-Mogg, MP, puts it in similar terms

interestingly, it was the case of a farmer that had filled out a form, but it was rejected because it was late, with the usual "it's a EU regulation, you know?"

here two possible ways to look at it... if willing to delve into the details:

- the reg is the EU's fault or

- it's BS, the culpable department is a British department, the EU reg is only a guideline, the real regulation is a British "gold-plating" one, and that farmer is being fopped by a completely British "don't look at me, go and complain to Brussels" rigmarole

regardless of my suspicions (including how much interest anybody in the UK would have to find out the facts behind that)...

in both cases, after Brexit that "go to Brussels to complain"... is not valid anymore

in both cases, it will be either the British department's fault or the British MP's fault to hit on the department, personally or through a British law

and that's the real upside of Brexit, for me. for you Brits, accountability of your departments and government. for us Continentals... we don't have to scratch our heads about how "anything EU is being applied in the UK", which usually results in cries of "what? how? why?"

my sincere hope that you do get your gov and state apparatus in order, through Brexit, through increased accountability of both civil servants and Members of Parliament

keep a careful eye on your beasts, and all the best

smacker's picture

Thanks. It is certainly my wish that a mutually beneficial relationship between the UK & EU can be found because we all have a lot of common interests.

pizdowitz's picture

Aaked a dumb bitch bank-teller once to pay me the sum in pounds, or kilograms, whichever they prefer, as it says on every YouKay bank note "I promise to pay to the bearer on demand the sum of  ... Pounds" .  Pounds of what ? Black pudding, you fuckers? 

Pliskin's picture

That's twice in the same thread that you've had a go at black pudding.

Is it just black pudding or all pork related products?

If you start having a go at sausages I'm gonna' climb through your internet and clip ya!

pizdowitz's picture

Touche... In all cultures of this planet black pudding is so YouKay, you have to forgive me...

Otherwise, sausages of every flavor and shape along with some Guiness are very much OK. Cheers..

PS:  Mrs Piz seconds that.

quasi_verbatim's picture

May the next dumb-bitch bank teller smack you in the gob.

wisehiney's picture

Just do not ask the hot little chick down the street to show you her bald pussy in exchange for a bag of potato chips when you are dumb ass prepubescent, natural born horny dog.

She ran straight home, told her mama, who called my folks.

It was a legendary ass whooping.

Over the river and through the woods and all the way across the neighborhood.

Necessary maybe. 

But never forgetful by any eyewitness.

Or anyone withing screaming distance.

Just don't.

pizdowitz's picture

You had some tortured childhood... My compliments...

Déjà view's picture

If you don't beat your meat...you can't have any pudding!

quasi_verbatim's picture

Very small print now, on the new plastic notes. No bag of gold dust under the BoE's rainbow, not been for two hundted years.

poldark's picture

Why don't the British just say, we know there will be no trade deal so we will settle for WTO and go on from there. No doubt there would then be trade talks after Brexit.

Ghordius's picture

your question is easy to answer: they are still debating about it (or were doing that until the last cabinet meeting)

there are several factions inside the Tory party pulling in several directions. and that's why May's "Florence Speech" might become very important... if it is the new government direction to which all Brits are going to pull versus the EU27 and if it answers the key questions I highlight further down in sufficient detail

Ghordius's picture

as far as I can see, the other 27 countries have this relatively short list of questions that they would like to see answered by May's "Florence Speech":

A) where is this "hard border" between the EU and the UK going to be? (border)

B) is the UK going to dilute the current rights of EU citizens in the UK? if yes, how/how much? (people)

C) what is the methodology (the "system") that is going to be used for "who owes what"? (money)

the C (money) question, interestingly, has never been put on the 27's side as "how much". that's the British press that makes a lot of hay out of it, from the FT (100bn) to the right-wing tabloids (zero, two stuck up fingers and a patriotic song)

and most of it is 100% solvable and explainable. I am thinking about Nigel Farage's EU MEP pension, for example. I think it would be completely acceptable if that would just become the UK's liability, with the UK Parliament rediscussing later if perhaps it should not be cut down, or cancelled completely

other money issues are even easier: agencies. either the UK uses those agencies, and chips in the costs, or not. as a reminder, it's a cost balancing thing. setting up your own agencies might cost more then sharing them (strike that "might", if you happen to know like me that it was always a big reason to join the EU in the first place for any member)

(but from a perception side, Her Majesty's Government seems to want to say something like "don't worry, we'll keep paying until the EU budget cycle is finished (2020) so that you don't need to re-do the 7-year budget", which is a different approach as what has been requested by the 27, and might miss some important details)

the B (people) question... I see some proposals that could work. they would involve putting their rights in a "exit treaty", note. no big worry on that from my side

the A (border) question is a bit more thorny. the Republic of Ireland is very vocal about not wanting to have a hard border between the Republic and the Kingdom's part of the same island

the UK made a proposal for a kind of "soft" "electronic border", but this is a no-no for the Republic and the other 26

the current counter-proposal is to keep the whole of Northern Ireland in the EU Single Market (SM) and Custom Union (CU)

this would mean a hard border with customs checks and passports controls between N.Ireland and the rest of the UK, and I don't see the NI DUP party jumping up and down in joy about such a thing

from the side of the 27, the impression is that the UK still does not really know what exactly it wants. there are two "cakes": the SM and the CU. both "can't be eaten and had at the same time"

"CETA Plus" or "CETA Plus Plus"? I am among those who are still fighting to get CETA cut further down. if the EU offers such a thing I would be among those jumping on the barricades. and... it would still take years to iron out

"Norway"? it's the same as being an EU member... without voting rights. it contains SM and CU and so the 4Freedoms and the ECJ

"Switzerland"? it would take years, and the bespoke arrangement the EU was willing to do with a small country smack in the middle of it (200 treaties) is not that different from "Norway" and it includes the Schengen Agreement to the 4Freedoms and the ECJ

seen from the Continent and Ireland, the UK gov triggered Art.50 and... has spent most of the time in a British Leavers vs British Remainer debate... with us as bywatchers, mostly, waiting until HMGov has made up it's mind

we'll see. it will be interesting. more sovereignty, if you accept in principle that this is what the UK is going to have, means also more responsibilities... including for details, and "that trade stuff" is full of very complex details

WallHoo's picture

Its always nice for eurorats to hide behind the 27 when in reallity there are only 1.5 pulling the strings.Germany and the pieces of shits in France.The issue with the UK is how Germany comes on top and it hurts that the rats seem to loose one of their minions.

 

Trade is simple.Trade is just trade.But a monopoly on money is the hard part.

 

How is the euro minister of economics idea running?So much for being against a federation Eh?

Ghordius's picture

interesting comment, but are you addressing the 3 question I posed, regarding Brexit?

- the UK is not part of the eurozone, and so it does not use the EUR

- even if you were right... the above 3 question would still be there, wouldn't they?

GreatUncle's picture

Ghordius from the article above BREXIT or not the EU has revealed it plans to extort the UK.

Was always the plan but it just got a spotlight thrust upon it.

They do this to hide their £20B black hole.

Here is the thing I pay for goods and expect something for the money ... in this case it is going to be nardah, nothing but extortion.

*************************************************************************************

Personally thinking of bigger things than this ... take one globalist single world.

What kind of economics would you expect? (EU is part of it and so are all nations its global).

Print $1T, but then the globalist needs to have more than half of the print globally to ensure they keep control of the world (way it works).

Where it goes stocks etc. pumping up the value all maintain them, but in such a world eventually the earnings per $ collapse and once they reach $0

... The only way to ever maintain this kind of policy is to go to -ve rates.

We are already receiving -ve interest rates if banks receive FREE CTRL-P but charge for it, free = $0 but we pay = $-.

Ghordius's picture

GreatUncle, what extorsion, exactly?

either someone is going to pay for Nigel Farage's MEP pension or not

either the UK uses some of those agencies or not, in the future

either the UK stays for a provisional period in the SM and CU or not

that's the way the EU is putting up the list. in items. bundled. either the UK wants the bundle or not

the bundles are packaged, there is little leeway for "pick and choose"

and, again, the EU is not even discussing a "lump sum". only the method of calculation... depending from where the UK puts it's "yes, I want this" check-mark

it's the British press, specifically the tabloids that cry "extorsion", or even use numbers, at this stage

are you following the details of the whole thing or are you just howering over the sound-bites?

WallHoo's picture

I never said that the UK is part of the eurozone,i dont know where did you get that?!?!?When i speak about europe,every time i make the distiction and say "the EU and the Eurozone"just in case.

You cannot enforce a monopoly on money if someone else doesnt use them like the UK OR when someone else uses his money(UK) in order to take advantage of you stupid currency that nobody seems to be in control or when somebody is not using your regulations.

 

A central bank is just not gonna cut it.A federal state,finance ministry,an "investment bank" can fill the gap potentially but as of now the eurozone is the worst economic(monetary) bloc there is on the planet.(Gold bugs if you want to see how things will be with a gold-backed currency go no furthere the eurozone is that reallity.)

 

A and B go without saying no need to say anything.

 

C is the part where germanistan wants to go on top?Who ows money?Britain has been running a trade deficit for years,so i think germanistan and their minnions owe a lot to britain.

 

Germany through the EU is getting legitimacy,a non state that is matterialised through european law.Apart of course from the obvious economic rape that germany does to the rest of us.

 

In the end the germans are correct,they are the ones that have the economic tradition,from the HRE to bismark and hitler,germany always had a mercantilistic national economy and good for them...The rest of the eurocunts cas suck german cock all they like.

Freefromeudictatorship's picture

HARD BREXIT NOW! Ive just returned from Europe and believe me the economy in southern Europe is rotten. It cannot and will not last. Prepare a budget to slash regulations and business taxes and make the UK an unbelievable place to do business!