Yield Curve Flashes Recession Warning In Collapse To 10 Year Lows

Tyler Durden's picture

Since The Fed unveiled its cunning plan to unwind the balance sheet ever so gradually and in an ever so well-telegraphed manner, the US Treasury yield curve has collapsed!

Banks do not care as the yield curve has crashed to its flattest since 2007...

In fact, the collapse to just 91bps places the yield curve right at the start of both of the last two recessions...

So, no! You do not need to invert the yield curve to see a recession - in fact we are already there.

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c2nnib2l's picture

well maybe it is going to be ok after all... and we just continue seeing all time high ?

ThirdWorldNut's picture

Only thing thats permanently high are central bankers. Rest all must obey gravity sooner or latter.

lester1's picture

We still have 43 million Americans on Food stamps since 2009. I can argue we never got out of the last recession.

Golden Breakout's picture

If one looks at averages everything looks dandy (with the 1% skewing the numbers upwards). I bet the median numbers don't look so rosy.

junction's picture

The USA never recovered from the dot.com bubble crash and 9/11.  All that growth in corporate share prices is the result of the unlimited creation of derivatives.  The repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act in 1999 unleashed the Kraken of NWO greed.  The Law of the Jungle now rules the marketplace. And, aside from sites like Zero Hedge, all the news media does is pass on fictions about how great almost everything is, even as the mortality rates skyrocket for white males without college degrees. The guys whose factory jobs were all shipped overseas by the Bushs and Clinton.

ReturnOfDaMac's picture

Bullish!   Just STFU and BTFD

buzzsaw99's picture

For a more accurate barometer of the possibility of recession, credit curves win out over potentially miscalibrated rate curves.

potentially miscalibrated bitchez, lulz

auricle's picture

How do you make a claim that doesn't even show how HY performed during the last two recessions? Chart goes back to 2011, what does that show other than HY is way out on a ledge at this point? 

buzzsaw99's picture

a mere flesh wound.

mjcarr51's picture





screw face's picture

...well fucking duh


Dragon HAwk's picture

Need to post real assets on Craig's List payable in Silver, that will wake the  MF'ers up.

technical difficulties starting   5,4,3,2

vesna's picture

Before collapse everything will look just fine even the biggest Bears will become optimistic and then suddenly, CRASH!!!

Mumms's picture

There is something big coming and the big boys know it. It is more than the usual hype we have seen on Zerohedge for the past several years this is something real.  Goldman is now leaking Shepwave analysis after the fact.  Based on what Shepwave has been saying for the past week I am looking for something big to come in the next week. See what the NAZ did today.  Plus their calls in gold and oil are showing the same thing. 

Thethingreenline's picture

Based on lower chart # 2 above, we have 2-2.5 yrs before recession. Chill.


Uranium Mountain's picture

The Oregon Investors Council wants to move pension accounts into US Treasuries.  They think this is a safe move since it's retirees are getting older and they want to help prevent them from a massive portfolio shock.  I find it ironic that people that obviously don't know jack shit about the markets are actually in charge of billions in retirement funds.

Hkan's picture

yet another disaster....want F**ng BIG BANG of all mothers...

mily's picture

It had touched ~<0bp first, well before "official" recession started, my two cents, just to be clear...

djrichard's picture

13 week treasury isn't doing squat.  BTFD mfers!

Nomad Trader's picture

Treasury can easily steepen it by selling more long bonds. And why wouldn't they when the cost is only marginally higher. Because at the end of the day the curve is too big to fail. 

katagorikal's picture

QT is Fed steepening the curve by not buying long bonds.