8 Reasons Why Bill Blain Is Suddenly Very Worried About Germany

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Bill Blain of Mint Partners

Blain’s Morning Porridge EXTRA: “WHAT ABOUT THE GERMANS”

It’s unusual for me to write a follow up to the Morning Porridge – but following some conversations and reading about the end of “Peak Merkel”, I fear I’ve considerably underestimated the risks raised by the inconclusive German Election.

We are now facing a period of intense political bargaining, weak government and even the potential of a second German vote.

As a result, the prospects for more volatile European peripheral markets, particularly Greece and Italy, are likely to be exacerbated, and we might well see some of the currency and European stock market froth blow away in coming days as the scale of the “German Problem” becomes clearer.

  • My worst case Germany scenario is a second election early next year, political uncertainty as Mutti Merkel finds herself squeezed out, and a scramble to build a new coalition government in her aftermath.
  • The best case scenario isn’t much better: that Merkel manages to forge a new coalition, but it will be a long drawn out affair and the resulting administration will be vulnerable, weak and fraxious.

These sound like German problems, but they mean the “leader of Europe” is likely to be entirely inward focused in coming months/years.. at a time when the European union will be facing a host of new issues regarding closer union, banking union and reform of the ESM, bailout and QE policies. There will also be new potential crisis points – Italian elections next year, Greece bailout, renewed immigration crisis or a blow-up with Trump. And these are just the known unknowns.

My fears for Germany are as follows:

  • It could take months rather than weeks for the coalition to be agreed. Any Jamaica variant – CDU, Greens and Free Democrats will be weak.  The SDP aren’t going to play in coalition, but could stay neutral outside having learnt (like the UK Liberals) that standing to close to power got them torched.   
  • There is a significant chance we won’t get a coalition deal – which is not being factored by market. Senior German insiders tell me there is a 35% chance of second vote. Some contacts close to the FDs are saying 50%.
  • Even if a new coalition is agreed it’s going to be very left leaning and much weaker than the previous Merkel Christian Democrat Alliance administration. (Even the CDU alliance is under pressure from the increasing strident Bavarian Christian Social Union – who remind me of Theresa May’s new found chums in Northern Ireland.)
  • A new coalition is going to be a fraxious grouping of contradictory bluster.
  • Germany is likely to be far more inward looking under this next administration and therefore less focused on sorting our European problems. Whoever fills the Finance ministry, their default response to any developing crisis in Europe will be ”Nein”!
  • Germans are not used to multiple elections – and a second vote early next year would be massive negative for Merkel herself – she may even have to stand down if coalition looks like falling. That could be massive shock.
  • The coalition parties all feel they will benefit from swings towards them because of the success of the right-wing AFD. That is going to push them both to demand more in negotiations with Merkel, and to fear a second election less. Both the FDs and the Greens are going to push for big concessions and a bigger role in the negotiating phase of the new coalition. They both feel a second election might play to them if folk switch to them in fear of the scale of the AFD vote, plus they see Merkel as damaged goods. They are apparently willing to push it right to the wire and don’t fear a second vote. The Greens and FDs are diametrically opposed on many policies. Common sense will not be a common commodity.
  • This has profound implications for the so-called French/German axis as it slides towards Paris. We are not going to see a new German government “waste time” on issues like closer EU union, European Banking Union, or critical finance issues like reforming ESM or new approaches on QE and Bailout funds. Forget Wiedemann for ECB president, it’s more likely to another Frenchman (Trichet II) – I’m sure its already underway.

In short.. Germany negotiations could get very fraxious while Europe is dragged down in its wake. I doubt the markets have discounted it yet.

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
zuuuueri's picture

this guy likes the word 'fraxious'

givadam's picture

No such word.  It's fractious.

JungleCat's picture

"Frax" a portmonteau of "freemason" and "tax."

So what he's saying is that we are entering a time during which the freemasons will tax us for their benefit MORE than they already do :-)

Rapunzal's picture

That's all what it is about, Merkel is a puppet of the NWO. On top the Masons, Illuminati, Opus Dei and Maltese Order. What ever secret society is ruling since centuries. If you believe the crap that Bill fucking Gates is the richest person on the planet, I only can say wake up.

The ruling parasitic elites win, if we hate each other. That's why they started the mass immigration in the first place. Divide and conquer, plz just don't turn up at their mansions. Rather beat each other up on the streets.

ParkAveFlasher's picture

Let's not get anctious about sanxions. 

wildbad's picture

sorry blain...you're worrying about the wrong things.

there are already talks underway to forge a coalition. it will be weak but that is good in the current climate.

the radio and tele here is abuzz with propaganda calling 13.5% of germans stupid and racist and fascist. a tactic that didn't work in 2015 , 2016 and it will not work now.

one of the positive upshots of this is that the globalists are on their heels and everyone from greece to italy to madrid and now berlin knows it.

they can no longer brazenly push through their tyrannic plans via undemocratic methods.

everyone is questioning the real motives of the theives and political lackeys. this is good.

next election it will be 25%+

lincolnsteffens's picture

This is what happens when Globalists try to implement their plans too quickly. The Natives get restless.

malek's picture

I agree on most of your points.

But I think a jamaica coalition will be weak and not make it for 4 years, if Merkel remains (which is likely.) If however it comes to an early "second" election it will pretty sure be the end of Merkel - either before or after.
Also neither the Greens -which have been weak for years now- nor the FDP -which is on a likely temporary high- will gain much if anything in another, early election.
However the AfD will likely grow stronger.

LotUnsold's picture

Thank you.  I was trying to decide whether I could be bothered to correct it.  Perhaps Germany can export some grammar Nazis when this is over, to counter the present fall in literacy and IQ.

Fireman's picture

The AFD Pegida party is just getting started. Dresden shows that Germany is not dead yet!

 

https://www.rt.com/on-air/404555-pegida-dresden-general-election/

NoDebt's picture

When you see "nationalists" in the same sentence as "Germany" you can be assured the rest of Europe is shitting themselves.

 

GOSPLAN HERO's picture

National Socialists are SOCIALISTS.

Tactical Joke's picture

You must be a Boomer cuckservative or LOLbertarian.

BarkingCat's picture

Probably, but it is an illogical fear.

Nationalists care about their nation so they tend to be inward looking.

It is the globalists they should fear.

 

Of course it is the globalists that are afraid that nationalists in their nations rise to the top and the globalists will be pushed out of power.

Tactical Joke's picture

So much goodness in this video. Even Generation Identitaire makes a showing.

Freddie's picture

Didn't AfD finish 2nd in Saxony?

Budnacho's picture

Problems in Germany? Sucking in other surrounding countries?....

 

Thats new....

NoDebt's picture

If not for those damned AfD nationalists who don't want to be overrun by Muslims while the elites make binding proclaimations on them, shouted from several countries over, things would have turned out just fine.

Are they called racists and bigots in Europe the same way they would be in the US?  I bet they are.

 

 

 

Xredsx's picture

I have repeatedly said that the good decent people of this earth will prevail over the corrupted and defeat their agenda for a few years now. And one of the highlights of this victory will be that the world will wake up to the huge amount censorship that is on ww2. And the reasons for this censorship will shock the world. Honestly, censorship is so effective at shielding people from the truth, eventually common sense becomes ancient wisdom.

debtor of last resort's picture

The nazi, populist anti AfD is mindblowing in the Netherlands on msm.

We even have niggers in diaper commercials now. My whole family gets on its knees during those.

DEMIZEN's picture

i think is pretty safe to short euro at this point. looks like me conflict wont end as soon as estimated.

Francis Marx's picture

Still funny how people hate Europeans but sure want to move into their countries.

koan's picture

What people would that be?

Bill of Rights's picture

I wouldn't move to that shit hole even if it were for free...

BarkingCat's picture

If you were living in Zimbabwe you would.

It is all relative.

Tactical Joke's picture

The US isn't any better, but even the shittiest parts of Europe, *cough* Albania *cough*, is better than Africa or the Middle East.

DoctorFix's picture

Ironic isn't it.  They hate your guts but want your stuff.  Like every other cultural babboon they're too stupid and evil  to create something worthy in their own shiitty lands so they find a new nest to shit in.

koan's picture

"political uncertainty as Mutti Merkel finds herself squeezed out"
That's pronounced "Mussie Merkel"

sunkeye's picture

Free Sylvia Stolz.

Sandmann's picture

Bill Bain is a total idiot who cannot spell "fractious"

"Mutti Merkel" is not a name anyone in Germany knows her by but sounds like a Kosename for the journos. She is loathed. She is the Leonid Brezhnev of Germany presiding over stultification.

Germany is becoming a real democracy instead of a controlled vassal of US/UK. It is time to let people express opinions and create new parties instead of those authorised by the Allies in 1945

BarkingCat's picture

The results of the voting prove otherwise.

She might have lost some support but anyone that voted for any left leaning party was voting to put her back in control.

Those who loath her amount to about 13%.

walküre's picture

She's known as Mama Merkel to every "refugee" on the planet

http://www.politikversagen.net/mama-merkel-open-the-door

Greenspazm's picture

 "Bill Blain of Mint Partners"

This time it's a ignorant fucking Brit armchair anal yst  pontificating on his anal ysis of German politics while polishing his expensive office leather upholstery with his ass.

"Senior German insiders"-- yeah right, like Jim Willie's "The Voice" and Riktards's “The Man Without a Face”

Fuck off, Blain and shove your gratuitous speculations up where your Morning Porridge is.

gdpetti's picture

Well, RT had a German analyst say that this will take till the new year before the next coalition is setup, so some of what Blain says is rather common sense to those that follow German politics, most of the rest isn't much different.. it's just another 'black swan' in the a making.

Grizzlybear's picture

In Mutti we trust! From a technical perspective the Dax setup is bullish bullish bullish... A 11-year long triangle was taken out and mkt action does not look over yet.

https://twitter.com/scienceinvesti/status/912307144900218880

Greenspazm's picture

Your technical anal ysis is like trying to grab a turd while it is being flushed down the toilet bowl.

Herodotus's picture

Don't mention the war.

quasi_verbatim's picture

Fraxious? Is this a Nat. Webster brainfart?

hooligan2009's picture

haha.. how very non-metrosexual of you!

GoldenDonuts's picture

My Euro / Gold bet is going to pay off yet.

aliens is here's picture

People are telling us we have a lot of things to worry about so for my mental health I am not going to worry about a single damn thing I have no control over.

BarkingCat's picture

I used to get worked up about all this political stuff. Then I decided "why the fuck should I care?"  

So now I really do not. Life is much more fun this way. You can watch the charade and make little snarly remarks about daily goings-on.

truthalwayswinsout's picture

The right is rising in Germany. Now all they need is a strong leader to head the movement.

And if you think about it for a few seconds, how amazing would it be for Japan to rearm as well while Germans are once again become Germans.

Sixtus VI's picture

I have thought of this; however, both Japan and Germany, after 70 years of US Deep State domination and manipulation of their cultures, are both very weak in spirit and in muscle due to perverted demographics in Japan's case and catastrophic immigration in Germany.  There will be no "strong man rising" allowed in either due to sheer incapacity.  They both have to re-arm first and the globalists and US Deep Staters can and will stop them.  

LiteBeeer's picture

NWO is on the fall since Dec 2012.

Germany will rise in the name of JESUS.

OZZIDOWNUNDER's picture

Lets hope so. It's about time the Germans stood up & took back their own Country.

Firstly kicking out the Americans & then all the towel heads that shouldn't be there & who don't fit in.

I'd reall, really like to see that !