What Would A North Korean Nuclear Attack Look Like?

Tyler Durden's picture

Reports that North Korea is planning to test an ICBM capable of reaching the US west coast opened a trapdoor under stocks this morning, suggesting that investors are taking president’s ominous warnings about “the calm before the storm” seriously.

But in the unlikely event that you’re not sufficiently terrified already, researchers at Johns Hopkins have sought to quantify the horrifying consequences of a North Korean nuclear strike in a new research report published by the university’s 38th Parallel project.

The US carrying out any military option raises a significant risk of military escalation by the North, including the use of nuclear weapons against South Korea and Japan. According to the calculations presented below, if the “unthinkable” happened, nuclear detonations over Seoul and Tokyo with North Korea’s current estimated weapon yields could result in as many as 2.1 million fatalities and 7.7 million injuries.

In the report, author Michael Zagurek calculates that an all-out nuclear strike launched by North Korea against Tokyo or Seoul could kill as many as 2.1 million people and injure another 8 million. Combined, the number of dead and injured would equal 10% of the South Korean population – affirming that a nuclear strike by the North would be – by a considerable margin - the single deadliest attack in human history. By comparison, the US killed a combined 120,000 Japanese civilians when dropped nuclear bombs over Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

To hear Zagurek tell it, investors and ordinary citizens alike are underestimating the likelihood of a nuclear conflict. As Zagurek explains, tipping the world into a potentially civilization conflict could result from an accidental miscalculation by either side. In the most likely scenario, an accidental miscalculation during a missile or nuclear test in the Pacific impacts US military assets in Guam, triggering an overwhelming military response by the US.

With the North Korean regime fearing the imminent destruction of its nuclear arsenal, as the logic goes, the Kim regime would fire off all 25 of its nukes – at least, that was the number upon which Zagurek based his calculations – at either Japan or Seoul.

But ruling out the possibility of an accident like that described above, how much longer can North Korea and the US trade threats before a military conflict becomes inevitable?

If the status quo is unacceptable and diplomacy has been ineffective, then at what point do military responses become probable?  The tension between North Korea, its neighbors and the United States are now extremely high, antagonized further by bombastic exchanges between the US and DPRK during the United Nations General Assembly meetings and continued tweets from Trump. History is replete with “rational actors” grossly miscalculating, especially in crisis situations. It is possible that another North Korean nuclear test—especially if detonated in air or under water—an ICBM test, or a missile test that has the payload impact area too close to US bases in Guam for example, might see Washington react with force. This could include such options as attempting to shoot down the test missiles or possibly attacking North Korea’s missile testing, nuclear related sites, missile deployment areas or the Kim Regime itself. The North Korean leadership might perceive such an attack as an effort to remove the Kim family from power and, as a result, could retaliate with nuclear weapons as a last gasp reaction before annihilation. Therefore, it is worth reviewing the consequences if the “unthinkable” happened.

The following graphs show the results of Zagurek's calculations for different-sized nuclear payloads:

 

 

Here’s a map of Seoul showing four possible blast areas from a 250 kt airbust detonation – 12+ psi, 5-12 psi, 2-5 psi, 1-2 psi…

And the four possible blast areas for Tokyo…

With Sarah Huckabee Sanders telling reporters that President Donald Trump’s ominous hints about a coming “storm” should be taken seriously, it’s possible that a breaking point could be approaching…

…then again, Trump is fond of bluffing. Meanwhile, Steve Bannon’s surprising admission that there is “no attractive military solutions” for dealing with North Korea that wouldn't result in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people in Seoul within 30 minutes due to conventional weapons fire continue to haunt the administration...

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Harry Lightning's picture

Someone ask this knucklehead about how many of Kim's missiles does Kim get to launch if the US hits him first with a magnficent array of all the weapons in their nuclear arsenal ? They wouldn't have time to make it to their bunkers before everything in their country is incinerated. They would bhave no command and control of people or weaponry. The would be toast, and the all this nonsesne about how many people would die in Japan or Seoul is absolutely meaningless.

07564111's picture

you maybe should ask China and Russia how many they intend to send to the US in return ;)

The Alarmist's picture

Bannon is looking like one of the saner people in Trump's inner circle, so of course the neocons had to deep six him.

SoilMyselfRotten's picture

Guessing how many people would die in a nuclear attack, this is the kinda fun stuff the Rothschilds talk about at cocktail parties

philipat's picture

I find it hard to believe that the US would launch a nuclear first strike against NK. More likely kinetics and heavy conventional. EIther way, the strategy to take out all NK artillery and conventional missiles along the DMZ had better work, otherwise even those figures in this article could be very low. Seoul could almost cease to exist.

Slack Jack's picture

Engdahl says Kim Jong Un is false opposition.

Engdahl says that Kim Jong Un lived in Switzerland from 1991 until 2000. He attended the Liebefeld Steinhölzli school in Köniz near Bern. The strongest hint that Kim Jong Un is a "Pentagon" puppet and not a communist (Chinese) puppet is that he had China's best friend in Pyongyang, Jang Sung-taek, executed. He also ordered the systematic execution of all other members of Jang's family including children and grandchildren (and others that were considered too close to China).

Other hints are that he is usefully (to the US) provocative and doesn't seem to listen to China.

Engdahl also thinks North Korea is an Pentagon Vassal State, but it seems more likely that Kim Jong Un is indeed a "Pentagon" man but that North Korea is (i.e., will be treated as) an enemy state.

https://journal-neo.org/2016/11/01/north-korea-is-an-pentagon-vassal-state/

Remember: The first rule for fighting a (real) war is to place your own puppet as the leader of the enemy.

Also, one should not forget that Trump, Obama, Bush and Clinton are all Jews.

http://www.preearth.net/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=20&t=630

http://mileswmathis.com/trump.pdf

And as an example of how real wars are fought,....

Proof that Adolf Hitler was a double agent.

http://www.preearth.net/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=1174

It seems pretty weird when you first read it, but its clearly true.

Txpl9421's picture

While the garçon walks around offering babies wrapped bacon.

07564111's picture

Yep, he probably was.

It's puzzling that even after China and Russia have stated twice that if the US was to be stupid and start a fight that they will not stand idle that some here think it's all just a joke and that the US is some how invincible and will suffer no losses.

These same fools are completely forgetting those men and women who wear a uniform in Sth Korea and Japan, apparently these soldiers will just be collateral damage destined to die for cowards like the grub 'Harry Lightning' above.

mkkby's picture

There's like 4 billion yellow niggers in the world. 2 million less is not noticeable.

Only thing I care about is crushing NK before they can attack mainland US, or give a nuke to a terrorist.

Let's see what Trump and the neocons actually do. My guess is 99% they do nothing but talk, as others have for 5 decades now.

roadhazard's picture

You really think either one would go to nuclear war with the US over NK... lol

rejected's picture

and the all this nonsesne about how many people would die in Japan or Seoul is absolutely meaningless.

A true American... Kill em all.

HRClinton's picture

What would a North Korean RETALIATORY strike look like?

It would look like the US doing Timewarp Twist -- the US would be EMP'd back into the pre-electrical 1800s.

 

But if you think that a given city would get "nuked American style" ( a la Hiroshima or Nagasaki), then you can try your Sim games right here...

http://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/

GUS100CORRINA's picture

What Would A North Korean Nuclear Attack Look Like?

My response: We need to replace FEAR with FAITH. DPNK is not the real THREAT about which we should be concerned, but rather the unsustainable growth in the US national DEBT and DRUG addiction epidemic are the real THREATS.

LetThemEatRand's picture

"But in the unlikely event that you’re not sufficiently terrified already...."

I'm terrified by one thing, and that is the US government deciding that it needs to invade a country that has the ability to kill millions.  If war is started, the blood is on US hands.  North Korea is no threat to the United States unless you believe that its government is suicidal.  If that were true, they would launch their nukes in response to a US attack anyway.  

Duc888's picture

 

 

We have no reason to "invade" NK.

BigJim's picture

Like we need a reason.

rejected's picture

I remember being told if we lost in Vietnam it would be the end of western civilization. The Domino Theory.  Many wanted to blow them off the face of the earth.

The Vietnamese are still communist and now we peacefully trade with them.

So much for theories.....

HRH Feant2's picture

I served in the former West Germany when the Berlin was was still extant. Along with East Germany and the Stasi.

I never, ever thought that commies would infest every part of the US, especially our once fine universities which are nothing but commie diploma mills, now. Sickening.

historian40's picture

Hate to break it to you, but the "commies" were running the US regime even when you were fighting for them against them.  This isn't new.

Oldwood's picture

You bet. The communists are our biggest trading partners.

And you don't see the dominoes falling every fucking day? You really think the communists are NOT winning? Seriously? Or is that what makes you so damned happy?

We are rationalizing and becoming more acceptant of their ideology every day. Talk of the frog pot. Look the fuck around.

1 Alabama's picture

once on the wrong side of nature, always on the wrong side of nature, and the west is on the wrong side of nature, you can not win the war of the laws of nature, especially when you cant understand them.

Farqued Up's picture

The Domino Theory was correct. Have you noticed that our Gov until this year is also communist, still is, but we are trying to recover it? They just travel under different cover, BLM, NFL, Antifa, etc. The battle is ongoing but all of the tenets of Marx’s Manifesto have been incorporated into this evil Gov. We will really get a full grasp of the gravity when they eliminate the 2nd Amendment.

This LV false flag was supposed to get the revolution in full swing but the people didn’t bite. The bankruptcy and reset will trigger SOMETHING hopefully it will result in mass arrests of the evil bastards.

401K of Dooom's picture

Never mind the Kampuchea Genocide and the boat people.  Thank goodness that the asian tigers came up and raised everyones standard of living.

DisorderlyConduct's picture

Not only did the domino theory fail to be true, but the way people live in Vietnam today is much more free than we live in the US. It is an interesting system.

The government is communist, and those connected to government  -through being party members, being related to a government official, or by being wealthy - get preferential treatment. They get into schools that filter everyone else by academics. They get to the front of the line. They get the best the government gives. Sound familiar? That's what happens in the US under our system.

But everyone knows that what the government gives sucks compared to free market options. Connected people go to the best private hospitals - the government hospitals are for the poor or undiscerning. People can open their own businesses. Very little regulation. For example, a doctor working at a private hospital can freelance at night and make a huge amount of money. No oversight. No regulation. All off the books. There is a very strong free market there for people to choose many goods and services from.

This hybrid system emerged as a result of the communists not being able to hold the whole country captive to their system. Probably partly due to the government not being able to meet needs too. For example, in the most remote villages, the gov could not establish a presence. They would simply be killed by the villagers - who knew their land and easily got the upper hand. Keep in mind many villages were started by former South Vietnamese soldiers  trying to live life after the war. Since pacification failed, the communists adopted a more pragmatic approach, to basically allow people to mind their own business.

MsCreant's picture

We are addicted to bullying. I am not sure we know how to be any other way. We feel entitled to everything, even our poor. The rich, most assuredly. 

If you accept that premise, then an addiction model could work here. 

You have to fall on your ass, hard, before you stop. The question is, do you die first, or do you hit bottom, feel humiliated, and want very badly to change. Bad enough to stop, with hung head, apologizing to everyone, hoping to God some of them can forgive you. Or you off yourself because it is unbearable.

IH8OBAMA's picture

"..apologizing to everyone."

Obama tried that and things got much worse.

 

MsCreant's picture

He never kept his promises to stop the bullying. He upped the addiction/acting out by droning everyone and their weddings and kids. Did not pull all the troops out. You can be sorry for drinking, drugging or bullying, but if you don't stop, everyone is going to let you fall and piss yourself and maybe secretly enjoy it while you fail. 

Oldwood's picture

As far as I know, and I am NOT an expert on the subject unlike so many here, I'm not aware that we have threatened a preemptive strike, only a full on destruction in retaliation for any attacks from NK.

Are you afraid that Trump might "trigger" Kim like he does so many progressive extremists?

If so, fuckem. All we need is another snowflake, but with nukes, and another generation spending their days diving under their desks, "ducking and covering" in the threat of some crazy fucker waking up with a hangover and a bad attitude simply deciding to honor his forefathers with world destruction.

They have ENOUGH to worry about.

Slack Jack's picture

"Are you afraid that Trump might "trigger" Kim like he does so many progressive extremists?"

After a fashion that's correct.

Kim may already be "Trump's" man.

In which case "Trump" can use him to trigger any war he wants.

It's happened before:

Proof that Adolf Hitler was a double agent.

http://www.preearth.net/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=1174

Oldwood's picture

Hitler? Surely you can come up with something older than that....maybe from Roman or Greek times?

And you were "triggered" long ago.

Slack Jack's picture

The second world war is the ultimate example of this sort of thing.

DeathMerchant's picture

You seem to ignore the high degree of probability of their technology and weapons as they develop them being transferred to other entities that are threats to the US. When that suitcase device goes off in your town, you won't have time to scratch your head and wonder where it came from.

Duc888's picture

 

 

Nope.  Fat Elvis' bottle rockets will never leave his own airspace.  He's gonna rain down a shitstorm right on top of his own country.

OverTheHedge's picture

Something to consider, for the war-hungry mobs calling for mass murder in Korea.

North Korea has more submarines than the us has. It may be that not all of them are very good, and they may not have the range without refueling, but how many subs would need to get through, or be prepositioned, to threaten ALL of the US?

Quite apart from commercial ships, containers, small private boats or yachts etc.

Asymmetric warfare is the new thing, and coupled with nuclear weapons should make for quite a spectacular retributive revenge strike. Be careful what you wish for, because some of the megadeaths may happen within the US.

Of course, there is a school of though which says that this is the main aim of all of this.

Implied Violins's picture

Yup. Just takes one Nork submarine to nuke the UN building (which is only a mile from Trump Tower, btw) to change the world...with the CIA's blessing.

And oh by the way, DuckDuckGo "United Nations Mural" and see for yourself the painting on the wall of the council chamber that shows a phoenix rising from the ashes of the fucking UNITED NATIONS COUNCIL CHAMBER...

- and remember: the goal of these elite bastards is a New. World. Order...under the auspices of a retooled, strengthened United Nations that IS the seat of world government, and whose armies will be used anywhere, at any time, to beat down anyone who doesn't answer to their dictates.

earleflorida's picture

whose got the football...

i hope it wasn't borrowed by kerpensky

1 Alabama's picture

my guess is Europe, but i dont speak the language.

Iconoclast421's picture

hopefully they take out san fran... and it causes the Big One to finally split cali down the coast.

east of eden's picture

I think that any opponent would stay away from hitting the caldera at Yellowstone, if that is even a real story, and not a fabrication.

The best P1 targets would be the nucelar sub pens in Seattle, the minuteman arrays in the upper mid-west, Norfolk, NY City and all of Texas. 

 

DeathMerchant's picture

Only if Pelosi is at home on recess

ToSoft4Truth's picture

I hope the street cams that catch the blast are 4K. 

BigJim's picture

4k? What, in terms of the temperatures they can handle?

HRH Feant2's picture

25 years of talking and concessions and this is the end result.

historian40's picture

"Get behind the troops once the shooting starts."

"They fought for your freedom."

"Our boys would never attack us."

Words to remember.

Nobody who supports a war initiated and instigated by the Executive branch may call themselves "conservative".

Anyone who swears an oath to uphold and defend the Constitution and then follows illegal orders is a liar.  "Just following orders"?  Who ordered you to take the oath?

I'm willing to be a faithful warmonger and federal boot licker if someone can show me in the Constitution where the Executive is given the authority and power to declare and wage war unilaterally.

Oldwood's picture

War powers act allows the president to initiate war and sustain it for 60 days before congress has the authority to stop it.

If Kim launches on SF, do you want congress to vote on our response?

Do you want congress in charge of negotiations? Twitter? Do you really think the swamp is in any way superior at making moral judgements?

SHADEWELL's picture

Don't need war powers act

Officially US remains in state of war declared in 50s..so congress has already blessed an attack on that fuck