Bonds, Bitcoin, & Bullion Bid But Dow Bounces Back To Another Record High

Tyler Durden's picture



The S&P (orange) managed to scramble back into the green on the week but Small Caps (dark red) and Nasdaq (green) remain red. Trannies (blue) knee-jerked higher (on airlines) at the open but faded all day... The Dow hit a new record high (thanks to WalMart and Boeing)


VIX was smashed at the last second to get the S&P green for the week...


As a reminder - last week's unrelenting meltup happened with China closed...


After ramping all last week, FANG stocks sank for the 2nd day in a row (with China back - are you seeing a theme yet?)....


Airline stocks jumped again today...


Spanish stocks (ETF) bounced after Puigdemont declared a deferred independence...


Treasuries - open after yesterday's Columbus Day close - leaked lower in yields...NOTE the bid at the European open and at US open but then selling pressure once Europe closed...


Notably, overnight saw something very unusual in corporate bond land.

With spreads at post-crisis lows...


TRACE said that there were no client and/or affiliate trades of $5m or more in IG long bonds in the hours prior to the NY open. tt is the first time in recent memory that this has been the case. Of course, this follows Columbus Day in the states (bond market closed), and may be related to the market being closed in Japan on Monday for Health and Sports Day. China holidays had ended Sunday.

Did Central Banks kill the US corporate bond market too? Certainly seems that way!


The Dollar Index dropped for the 2nd day in a row (again now that China is back from Golden Week)...


EURUSD rallied overnight into the Catalan leader's speech, but rolled over on his 'deferred independence'...


Dollar weakness helped push Gold higher...


And Bictoin soared back above $4900!!


WTI/RBOB rallied onthe day ahead of tonoight's API data.,..


And finally... "you are here"


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Clock Crasher's picture

2 weeks ago I wrote

Consolidate Dow 22,000 then strong move to 23,000

I think this is front running global hyperinflation

You aint seen nothing yet

The worse the real economy gets, and its going to get a lot worse,  the more outrageous equities valuations were going to see

Dow P/E ratio is going to take out the dotcom highs

Gold Silver have A LOT of catching up to do


FreeShitter's picture

TVIX is sitting there like a cat 5 hurricane ready to go full blown destro

Clock Crasher's picture

TVIX will see a 100% move and then give it all back and then decline another 99% just in time for Xmas.

VIX capped at 15... 20 tops.  Won't see a VIX close above 20, unless Artemis' model of volatility and hyperinflation are correct (market keeps rising and volatility also rise as hyperinflation takes over).

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Very interesting that Gold was up today, but precious metal mining stocks were down.

Something stinks in the wood Gold pile...nothing new for precious metals and miners.

FreeShitter's picture

Miners dont move with gold always, sometimes yes...but miners are so fucking manipulated by the big dogs its best to stay the fuck out of them and just buy the phyzz

Clock Crasher's picture

Just consolidating the Monday holiday rip higher

Miners are driven by GSR but not 100% of the time

I expect to see days of Gold falling + GSR rising and miners rising anyway

It's like professional sports, the refs make a bad call and know it and then make it up later in the game with another bad call just in the opposite direction

Volume is still high in the mining sector

This end game is going to take decades to play out

jamesmmu's picture

I'm adding TVIX position tomorrow.

Should I not?

Any word?


FreeShitter's picture

When I see China start to crack first, then Im going balls deep in, right now we are still full blown btfd.

jamesmmu's picture

I think so too. Recently China's data not been very good, will wait for its import/export data on Thursday, if its a disaster, its sign to get in the market and short.

D.r. Funk's picture

The biggest reason I didn't totally discount a 23. Is the (well known) occult symbolism of 23 (lol)

wouldnt surprise me at all if they hit it and let it sit as their attainment point

Clock Crasher's picture

hope you're not totally discounting  the number 24 as well.

D.r. Funk's picture

touche. nahhhhh pretty sure 23 would fit their Essence with accurate specificity

Clock Crasher's picture

Not touche.  I still want to see a total melt down myself but If she isn't going down by this point in time I think we shall Occam's Razor.  I'd expect another consolidation, maybe a pull back at 23,000 then another burst to the next round number. 


Keltner Channel Surf's picture

Well, you've got experience with stuff like JNUG, but it's worth noting it tends to top the 'Most Volatile ETFs' list, not something that retail 'investors' should mess with, instead a vehicle purely for traders.

Was happily in JDST through 2:00, just started dabbling in levered junior miners (after finding the indices a bit flighty lately, or horizontal, nothing in-between).  Found I was able to port over the intraday mean-reversion techniques I've been building for 5+ years and, surprisingly, it trades much 'cleaner' than indices such as RUT or QQQ in that regard.  (And the near mirror images with DUST and NUGT tells you machine control is absolute, which is a positive.)

The trick is to trade only half your standard position (you'll still get double a similar trade with TQQQ or TNA), be adept with bracketed OCO orders, and don't stray far from your screen, knowing when to hold and when to yank down your PTLO to capture the bootly before it retraces in 20 sec. what you sweated hours to get.  Fascinating instruments ...

BlueHorseShoeLovesDT's picture

2550 who’d a thunk it

Barney08's picture

Umm yaa. the mkt was open right?

Clock Crasher's picture

Cheap money allows listed companies to borrow said cheap money and buy back their own shares.  Less supply of shares means higher stock prices.

No one trusts goverment debt and all those trillions have moved away from the bond markets and into stock markets.

Goverment debt has been doing very very well because the primary debt dealers have been using hundreds of Trillions in derivatives to put the toxic interest rate derivative swaps on their balance sheets, giving  the appearance of solvency thus keeping all the baby boomers 50/50 stocks/fixed income.

They will lose on the fixed income and lose on the equities when they go to spend it after its too late and commodities have all priced in insolvency.

D.r. Funk's picture

What's amazing is time and time again a populace is lulled into believing wall st 1) has their best interest 2) learns from mistakes ha 3) lessens corruption, greed, and swindling over time

Bears described a lot of those things years ago, "You can pretend for awhile, But crap is only going to accumulate again, And by the way the result will be even bigger bullshit than last time"

Easy money and debt. stupid fucking supposed wise elder babyboom generation

Clock Crasher's picture

Another keeping the stock market from falling is the babyboomers.

The ones that are part of ZH get it (kind of sort of..) The ones that don't or won't aren't selling.

Selling completely would mean paying 50% ordinary income tax on their life savings.  They would rather watch a stock market crash of 50% and hold all the way through and never sell than pay the equivalent to the IRS.

Gen-X and Millennials won't be thinking of selling until they are old and grey.

All the bears have been eliminated.

There is no one left to sell into this market.

D.r. Funk's picture

Well. I love the idea of babyboomers being cornered. Kinda freaked out. Just for the record not ALL bears have been eliminated.... But yeah I described many times there has been intent to wreck, alter, meddle, and eject bears, as echoed by your line

Barney08's picture

Kolanovic appeared on CNBC late in the day. Instead of asking him about anything important they queried him on the price of bitcoin. Of all the things to possibly worry about in the market they ask him about the price of bitcoin?

There is zero risk factored in the market right now. It is simply NOT present.

Sleep bitchez!

D.r. Funk's picture

Very reminiscent the old cliches that they "couldn't even have -20". Where a few years ago it was clear there were days -emanating- the level of manipulation, where a -20 dow would have been fine but you could see a lot of work being done to close -5 dow.

Over and over and over and over as many, many, many commenters on here, noted. "amazing that they couldn't even let this thing be down by 25"

i.e. yesterday: it had to be -13 dow, heaven forbid -22

i.e. today: had to be +70, +50 wasn't enough

death to the banksters

Rainman's picture

Mr. Efficient Market likes to see Mr. Munchkin working on easing regs for the banksters

BlueHorseShoeLovesDT's picture

Don’t you know market valuations are rather high, old boy, now it’s off to the club.

DEMIZEN's picture

you are killing me with this graph porn. just btfd.

Father ¢hristmas's picture

Nuclear war?  Bullish.

Mass shooting?  Bullish.

Spanish civil war?  Bullish?

Harvey Weinstein is a rapist?  Bullish.

Guy slips on a banana peel?  Bullish.

The economy is fundamentally sound.  Dow all-time highs are proof that America is stronger than ever.

We need some common sense, bipartisan legislation on strict, draconian gun control because who the hell needs a gun when the economy is doing so well?

Stawk prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.  Not only will this bull market end well, it will never end.  It will go higher and higher. Forever.

#MAGA #Hot air balloon cellphone towers. #Tesla flying cars on Mars #NFL players forced to wear stilts #No kneeling #Tesla car battery electrical grid for Puerto Rico #Handcrafted cars #tmosley using Bitcoins to buy pizza & hot dogs on the dark web

D.r. Funk's picture

So you "really" think boombust has been solved? 99 saved by what led to 07-08, 07-08 saved by nothing resulting in further boombust? Economy is sound, but pay no attention to the displacements, dislocations, and bubbles? [Uh]

seattleslewsz's picture

The only analysis on ZH that is correct at any time is from the Shep Wave analyst groups.  A lot of bears on here keep trying to call the top in stocks and for years now been wrong. I do not undestand how they could have any money left to trade with by this time. 

Irvingm's picture

Shep has been doing the only legitimate analysis for years. But let's see how these new aggressive gold and index plays work out this week. That was a ballsy move in gold. So far he has it steered wrong. 

PUNE's picture

everyone knows they are good for traders but you have to admit their followers are a bit arrogant when they get the trades right all the time. 

Consuelo's picture



Did this ever get any airtime on ZH?    Maybe I wasn't here that day...

Kaiser Sousa's picture

yeah i saw that when it was 1st reported...

that would explain the hit jobs on Gold & Silver strictly in London & NY trading now wouldnt it????

FreeShitter's picture

How many jooz in china? Not many I suspect lol.

Tolomeo's picture

Can the market even drop 20% in one day? I mean with out I think being shut down while the Muppetts reset the show???

HominyTwin's picture

Did I not tell you effers that TSLA would gap up? Negative WSJ report last week and covered here on ZH wouldn't mean shit! Wish I had the balls to sell more puts. See how fucking crazy this market is? I think Tesla is bullshit, but here I am making bullish trades on it. Fucking stupid. I did try shorting it last fall, and well, you could imagine how 'profitable' that was.

silverserfer's picture

1987- Allan Greenspan FED chair + actual organic trading being conducted

2017-insane clown posse FED chair+ HFT market maker algos.


The market is what we say it is bitches thanks to Fundermentals (TM) 

Anteater's picture

U.K. housing stock worth record £6.8 trillion -

more than the value of all the gold in world.

So if BRICS magically go back to gold, as the

goldbuggerers like to pretend, and if BRICS

buy up 100% . of . the . gold . in . the . world,

so that the price can never go higher, ha,ha,

they'll still hold less than 10% of GWP and less

then 3% of GWD, which would basically insure

that all the world economies would collapse,

if payments had to be made in physical gold,

so they would inflate it away with fractional-

reserve toilet paper, aka GLD and COMEX.

Wait, that's what they're doing right now!!

Your PMs will never be worth more than what

you can get in an eBay/Etsy dark alley in LA.

"Do you have the coins?"

"Show me the cash first!"

"Here, take a look ... FFFFT, FFFFT"

Your head and hands end up in a burn barrel.

And your family will think you deserted them.


Do you really want to pay a +35% premium?

Father ¢hristmas's picture

They are not going to listen.

I have tried to tell them that the situation they are salivating for, in which precious metals would be used as a preferred medium of exchange post-economic collapse, would also be in an environment of hyperinflation.  Their pissant stacks would buy about a week's worth of groceries.

America does not even have the gold reserves necessary to import the raw materials necessary for societal function in a hyperinflationary scenario.

Then you have the guys who believe in decentralized exchanges of cryptocurrency in the event of this economic implosion.  They might be even dumber than those who are g'ing for Au and Ag, if they are true believers and not just inflating a speculative vehicle for personal gain.

The future is famine and starvation and tribal warfare/bloodletting giving rise to global enslavement.

silverserfer's picture

im not shocked people dont listen to you.

Silver Savior's picture

It does not work that way. In hyper inflation the value of metals go up with the rest of the hyperinflation and if you have most of your wealth concentrated in the metals as an asset class then you are well ahead. Yeah things will cost more and metals will be able to buy more.

But I am not salviating over the hyper inflation phase because it's short lived. I am looking forward to the reset and metal revaluation into the new currency. No matter what it's all about those metals! So you have every right to invest in a bunch of paper assets and have it all go to zero value if you wish.

Crypto may turn out to be junk so use it today to make more money and buy more precious metals with it before it's too late.

silverserfer's picture

your concept of how gold is exchanged is very naieve. Also the competetion for physical gold is very tightly controlled by rothschild central banks 1st, china/russia 2nd, then the Brics. Brics banks get their local supply to play with in ordrer to have a little international weight. There is one thing in common, they all want it and it is the basis for the exchange rates between their local currencies. Fiat if for the slave class. Their price control mechanisms are well oiled and working well. The flow is mainly from mining, not induviduals. It pegged to oil and cost of production.   


What many fail to realize is that there will be an agreedupon revaluation of gold proce due to asset bubbles. Gold will be revalued, and we will likely have the same situation as we have now. The ratio of gold to other assets will be lower is all. Those in power have the gold and when they decide to destablize market it wil be to their benefit and they will be holding they gold reserves in order to retain power and benefit the most from it. 

Fundies's picture

Bill Murray must do a movie on the DOW.

allamerican's picture

notice individual names pre mrkt moves, hard to clear divri's.

hell not awake by 900..

ya the gold thing.  go muchhigher 5k serious.  ah when..

Silver Savior's picture

I think it's funny that some people still don't believe in precious metals despite the fact everything is going to hell around them. That's the public school system for ya. 

Have to either learn about metals as money on your own  or be dumb. Being dumb appears to be the easier way out right?

Golden Phoenix's picture

Don't 'believe' in anything. Look at the chart and see if it's proving itself to you. The river doesn't care if we point our boat against or with the current but one is a lot easier than the other.

SRV's picture

Gold is ready to be hit tomorrow...

Gold up today combined with The HUI (Gold Miner Index) being down almost 2%... normally a levered (3x) bet on gold.

This is a message for the gold traders... Jamie likes to have a little help when hitting gold hard and the speculators always oblige.

We'll see... unless Trump decides to hit Rocket Man overnight...