"Black Swan" Anxiety Has Never Been Higher

Tyler Durden's picture

The Fed's Williams warns that they "don't want there to be excesses in financial markets... "

Two quick things...

The market has almost never been this expensive...

As Peter Boockvar warns: "Almost there. S&P 500 price to sales ratio is just 4% from March 2000 peak."

And investors have never been more concerned about 'black swans'...

As Bloomberg notes, concern is building that years of record-setting gains for U.S. stocks may give way to a market plunge, according to Jim Paulsen, Leuthold Group Inc.’s chief investment strategist. In a report Monday, he cited the Chicago Board Options Exchange’s SKEW Index, which shows the perceived risk for a so-called black-swan event that’s reflected in S&P 500 Index option prices.

Trade accordingly...

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
NoDebt's picture

You're harshing my mellow, man.


Bryan's picture

Nah, we can just print money forever and keep equity values on an uphill climb indefinitely!  The goobermint told me so.  What, me worry?

Giant Meteor's picture

Did someone mention marshmellows? It'lll be fine, you'll see. Now sit back, relax, and enjoy the s'mores!

Truther's picture

A nuclear option is at hand. No wonder Jamie changed the bi-laws. The SOB wants to cover his ass.

baja canada's picture

That's "by-laws.". Bi-laws are over in the gender-justice camp.

Paul Kersey's picture

The world that best describes the theory behind a "black swan" is ergodicity.

" ergodic. 1 :of or relating to a process in which every sequence or sizable sample is equally representative of the whole (as in regard to a statistical parameter) 2 :involving or relating to the probability that any state will recur; especially :having zero probability that any state will never recur."

covfefe MICdotard's picture

Meh ~ I find myself rather insouciant about ergodicity.

Paul Kersey's picture

That probably can't be said for the folks in Houston, the Florida Keys or Puerto Rico. The my not know ergodicity by name, but the do know it by experience.

covfefe MICdotard's picture

I am capable of empathy. But I really can't do anything about it. I don't think I'm being an asshole by saying that, let's say the hurricanes never occurred, and instead, a tornado came & blew my home off the map. I wouldn't expect anything but casual empathy from Houstonians, Floridians, or Puerto Ricans.


You can take this to any degree you want.


- I wasn't born racist

- I wasn't a plantation owner (hence, had nothing to do with slavery, or even killing Indians)

- You can try all you want to 'claim' I'm a beneficiary of white priviledge, but you could equally say that I've lived my entire adult life where the quota system of affirmative action precluded me from countless opportunities, and hence, made me earn everything on my own. They're all too happy to remain silent on that one.


So why am I supposed to care about 'BLM' movements? What compels me to lift a finger? FFS ~ It's bad enough  that I have to listen to 'fake news' all day long and hear the incessant whining from every fringe group out there all pointing their fingers at me. And even if I move farther and farther away from that grid, & politely ask to leave me alone. That's not good enough because they seem hell bent on bring it to your doorstep.

Paul Kersey's picture

What in the world does your empathy, or lack there of, have to do with whether or not you have much interest in ergodicity? You must be feeling guilty about something, but it shouldn't have been triggered by my post. I'm was just writhing about the probability of improbability.

covfefe MICdotard's picture

All I was trying to do was make a joke by putting these fancy words like 'insouciant' and 'ergodicity', that you'll probably never see anywhere except for ZH, into a single sentence.


I wouldn't describe my latter comment as being 'triggered'. But your comment seemed to imply that my 'insouciance' remark was somehow tied to to the hurricane victims (& not simply tied to the word 'ergodicity' itself, which is all it was).

Bryan's picture

covfefe -- for what it's worth, I got the joke.  :-)

You gotta love wordplay, one of my favorite things to occupy my mind.

Giant Meteor's picture


But riddle me this, why exactly would a guy planning on blowing his brains out, be wearing gloves ? 

I mean, what are the chances of that !?

Paul Kersey's picture

Possibly he was cushioning himself from all the recoil. When I swing an ax, while cutting wood, I wear gloves.

JRobby's picture

Anxiety? That's the other guy's problem.

We suck down Xanax/Prozac/Benzo combo cocktails like the world is ending! Which of course, it is!

TeamDepends's picture

Can we call it an African-American swan, you know for the childrens?

GUS100CORRINA's picture

"Black Swan" Anxiety Has Never Been Higher

My response: These charts are only looking at price related metrics.

DEBT related metrics would blow these metric charts out of the water.


Yukon Cornholius's picture

The debt chart, M1 chart, M2 chart etc etc are all the same. Up up up with no end in sight!

covfefe MICdotard's picture

When the whole flock takes a knee during the national anthem, you'll know the gig is up.

Giant Meteor's picture

Surveying the ergodic oscillator , 

and then this,  http://news.softpedia.com/news/What-is-ergodicity-15686.shtml    ;;

Thank You Paul Kersey   ;)

All I can be truly certain of, the bullshit meter is recording seismic scattering and reverberations, that are presently off the charts!

Black swans gathering !

Richard640's picture

BUT THE WOLF ACTUALLY IS AT THE DOOR THIS TIME...after 8 yrs. of crying wolf, no one believes HE is here...


The end is nigh, brother, the end is nigh! 


World markets are like a pie crust stretched across the roof of a volcano!


Fu Manchu is about to pull the lever to the trap door!


Warbucks signals the trusty  Punjab to cut the cords of the rope bridge!



Grease the skids! Happy tobogganing!

Scuba Steve's picture

"Watch your Cornhole dude."

LetThemEatRand's picture

I predicted that Trump had until September before the Fed pulled out the rug, using the 9/11 time-line to predict when TPTB would feel comfortable blaming the new guy.  I was wrong.  Maybe like the Kardashians, big fat ugly bubbles are here to stay.

Banker Buster's picture

I posted a video a few months ago of the new DNC chairman saying the market is going to crash in 2018.

Giant Meteor's picture

Apparently Steve Bannon is giving the don a whopping 30% chance of going the distance on his first term? I'd say there is plenty enough black swan material to keep everyone guessing as to timelines. Oh, and apparently the FED IS the rug ..  , and underneath that rug lies a shit ton of dirt!

I've got a few scant weeks before my predictive timeline is blown ...

ebworthen's picture

"The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results."

Unless of course, it is on purpose.

Winston Churchill's picture

This time will be on purpose,2008 was not supposed to happen then,this one is planned to the t.

They are going for all the marbles this time around, the last roll of the dice.

educated's picture

How can it be a black swan if we anticipate it!

venturen's picture

because profiling black swans works!

venturen's picture

printed electronic money is cheap.....EVERYONE IS A MILLIONAIRE! You don't even need to work. We can by like Venezuela! 

Thebighouse's picture

As long as banks are creating money and buying stocks, they will go up.

Lost in translation's picture

One. More. Time.


TheMayor's picture

I mostly sell stocks short now and it gets easier everyday.





moorewasthebestbond's picture

Laugh now.


Cry later.

Thebighouse's picture

And Black Swan....how racially insensitive....

If you watch stupid swan in the wild, the black swan gets hammered incessantly.  I wonder if a male and female black swan ever got together and made

children  that were not slaves to the other swan......oh....I laid an egg.....

Bitcoin is an amazing phenomenon of easy money......

If money were valued, would you give it away for an electronic number???????   And then have that number's value in your precious dollars.,,,,,go through the roof,,,

many times over?   Nope.........alllllll frickin toilet paper.

I like the numbers the Japs use........trilllions and quadrillions.........now that is sum-ting to get a handle on.

Father ¢hristmas's picture

Yeah, but markets controlled by your fellow crackers have led you here.

Shut the fuck up, you stupid asshole.

Fatso's picture

Perhaps this will help with understanding the blockchain and why it gives Bitcoin value:



Father ¢hristmas's picture

Black swan anxiety has never been higher because asset inflation has never been higher.

Look, motherfucker, either give your shitkickers something to trade or let it the fuck go.

Fantasy Free Economics's picture

Just a reminder, this time it really is different.


Today's market is managed with unearned money. Investors are not responsible for driving the market up. It is a political happening. Americans are suspicious but are still clueless that they are being fleeced. For the market to collapse the entire system must fail or the political situation must change. It doesn't matter what traders think or do.


ali-ali-al-qomfri's picture

They ate the Black Swan that landed in Venezuela.


Didn't even cook it.

guru69's picture

Nom nom,

tastes like chicken

Identify as Ferengi's picture

NoDebt said it at the top......

Harshing my mellow man.

Plenty of opportunities for profit, if I just had a crystal ball, Ouija board or sooth-sayer to know when to pull the trigger.

liberty777's picture
  • "FED continues printing paper money".
  • FED stops plowback from this month.
  • It is only silly talk that the stock prices continue rising forever.
Bloody Fkn Muppet's picture

EXACTLY what I thought of first

Dragon HAwk's picture

I love historical charts that make it look like even if it goes down  it will go right back up like all the other times.. believe me this time it WILL be different