Steve Bannon Believes Trump Has 30% Chance Of Finishing His Term

Tyler Durden's picture

Gabriel Sherman, the former New York Magazine journalist whose reporting helped topple former Fox News chief Roger Ailes, has published a wide-ranging piece in Vanity Fair where he says private grumblings of senior administration officials are spilling out into the open as Trump's behavior has grown more erractic, and that many of the administration's key players are close to a breaking point.

Sherman begins his piece by claiming that Tennessee Sen. Bob Corker’s infamous interview with the New York Times, where he reportedly fretted that Trump would start “World War III” and compared the White House to “adult daycare” represents an inflection point in the Trump presidency. The interview, Sherman claims, “brought into the open what several people close to the president have recently told me in private: that Trump is “unstable,” “losing a step,” and “unraveling.”

Kelly is reportedly miserable, but is refusing to quit out of a sense of duty to try and keep Trump from making a disastrous decision like ordering a preemptive nuclear strike on North Korea. According to Sherman's sources, Kelly and Secretary of Defense James Mattis have discussed what they would do if Trump ordered a nuclear strike...

According to two sources familiar with the conversation, Trump vented to his longtime security chief, Keith Schiller, “I hate everyone in the White House! There are a few exceptions, but I hate them!” (A White House official denies this.) Two senior Republican officials said Chief of Staff John Kelly is miserable in his job and is remaining out of a sense of duty to keep Trump from making some sort of disastrous decision. Today, speculation about Kelly’s future increased after Politico reported that Kelly’s deputy Kirstjen Nielsen is likely to be named Homeland Security Secretary—the theory among some Republicans is that Kelly wanted to give her a soft landing before his departure.


One former official even speculated that Kelly and Secretary of Defense James Mattis have discussed what they would do in the event Trump ordered a nuclear first strike. “Would they tackle him?” the person said. Even Trump’s most loyal backers are sowing public doubts. This morning, The Washington Post quoted longtime Trump friend Tom Barrack saying he has been “shocked” and “stunned” by Trump’s behavior.

But perhaps the most alarming claim in Sherman’s report is that Steve Bannon believes Trump only has a 30% chance of finishing out his first term. And furthermore, the biggest threat to Trump’s presidency isn’t impeachment, but a provision of the twenty-fifth amendment that would allow his cabinet members to exercise emergency measures to remove him from office.

Even before Corker’s remarks, some West Wing advisers were worried that Trump’s behavior could cause the Cabinet to take extraordinary Constitutional measures to remove him from office. Several months ago, according to two sources with knowledge of the conversation, former chief strategist Steve Bannon told Trump that the risk to his presidency wasn’t impeachment, but the 25th Amendment—the provision by which a majority of the Cabinet can vote to remove the president. When Bannon mentioned the 25th Amendment, Trump said, “What’s that?” According to a source, Bannon has told people he thinks Trump has only a 30 percent chance of making it the full term.

For what it’s worth, odds that Trump will be impeached before the end of his first term have been more or less steady around 35% for the past three months. Though PredictIt doesn’t have odds for whether the twenty fifth amendment will be invoked before the end of Trump’s first term.

If Breitbart's coverage is any indication, a rift between Trump and Bannon that erupted when the former supported the doomed candidacy of Republican Senator Luther Strange in a runoff primary vote against former Alabama Chief Justice Roy Moore, who won the primary and will likely go on to replace Strange as the senator holding AG Jeff Session's old seat.

But that doesn’t make Bannon’s remarks - if the report is accurate - any less disconcerting.

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freedom1798's picture

Trump has to keep his campaign promises, especially regarding immigration.  So far, he has done nothing on immigration, just a lot of words.

NoDecaf's picture

OT - The Pneumonic Plague is now in Seychelles.

That didn't take long

remain calm's picture

He knows the state is going to terminate him

vato poco's picture

oh, well, if it's from an anonymous source, then it MUST be so!


AllTimeWhys's picture

boy i'm sure glad i've always got my most trusted news scource VANITY FAIR..............................................

vato poco's picture

what are the odds we're gonna see a whole lot more of those tired old bullshit 'Trump gonna quit!' 'Staffers gonna mutiny!' 'Congress gonna impeach!' stories? 

as predictable as sunrise: any news that makes dems/media (same thing) look bad - or especially news that might make people think about dem/media pedophilia rings - gets chased off the papers/airwaves/new and improved ZH ("now with hundreds of Sorosbot commenters!") quick like a bunny

SDShack's picture

Yep, it was just like the campaign in 2016. Every month at least there was some breathless whispered story from some anonymous inside source that was saying Trump was about to quit because of the latest scandal. Just fill in the blank, rinse and repeat. It became so absurd that it spawned the moniker "Fake News". All these shitholes have left is to just keep throwing their shit from their holes at the wall to see if it sticks. The problem is that it is sticking... sticking to the very shitholes that spew it, as well as their hands as they throw it. Should be relabed "Shit News" instead of "Fake News" because that is what it has become.

johngaltfla's picture

There is not enough gold in the COMEX or Federal Reserve if the 25th Amendment is invoked. Plus the market crash will be pretty nifty also.

Calmyourself's picture

Gabriel Sherman, my trusted source at National enqui.. or Vanity piece monthly.. Whichever, I trust him less than the FBI and that is saying something..

curbjob's picture


"boy i'm sure glad i've always got my most trusted news scource VANITY FAIR."



Haven't they been calling for the bottom to fall out of equity markets for the last 8 years ?

Gaius Petronius's picture

I don't believe anything from the mainstream media that is anonymously sourced.  I don't believe this article in Vanity Fair either.  It requires that I trust the credibility of the journalist who wrote it, and I flat out don't trust them at all.  I don't care if he claims that he's got 37 collaborating witnesses.  It's still a claim that requires that I take on faith what he is claiming to be true is true.  If the media doesn't have someone on record saying it, I think they are lying.  Vanity Fair should get Steven Bannon on record saying that he said that or believes that Trump has a 30% chance.  Then, I'll believe that one aspect of the story, but nothing else about it.  I don't trust the press.

Lost My Shorts's picture

Which part do you doubt, that Bannon said it, or that Trump has a 30% chance?

Personally, I think he has a zero% chance, and the 30 number is just to let the Trumpster save a bit of face if he stepped aside (not that he would).

Gaius Petronius's picture

That Steve Bannon said it or anything else in the story that is anonymously sourced. 


I wrote about the 25th amendment below in another comment.



NoVa's picture

Kinda like Lincoln. 


I feel sorry for Barron not having a normal childhood. 



Son of Loki's picture

The Establishment Swamp Creatures vs. Trump

07564111's picture

more division, down the drain, spinning ever faster, so screwed JUSA.


Never One Roach's picture

Vanity Fair = Fake News.

VF has the same cred as CNN, NPR and NBC.

mkkby's picture

It's everybody red, blue and the media against Trump. They own politics in America and they'll do anything they can to stay on top.

Nothing can be believed. Certainly not Bannon, who has always looked and sounded like a used up alcoholic. I predicted he would go on the attack shortly after being fired.

He thinks his pitiful little web site is important, but it's just another shrill voice competing for google ad revenue.

FoggyWorld's picture

But he MUST get rid of Sessions.

chubbar's picture

Now the DOJ is reportedly investigating Weinstein but doesn't do SHIT about Clinton and her felony espionage issues. What a fucking joke Sessions is.

Internet-is-Beast's picture

Sessions does not exist. It is a hologram.

aloha_snakbar's picture

I’m holding out for Bubonic... black is my favorite color...

decon's picture

You talking about the 2 sisters that died?

decon's picture

Good news, just your garden variety black death, easily treated with a number of antibiotics.  I was worried it was the new hybrid pneumonia that appeared in China recently.  Very high death rate and only one hard to get cutting edge antibiotic effective.

NoDecaf's picture

yeah that's what I am reading so far...for the record, I didn't freak out over the ebola scare a few years ago, but this airborne plague is worth watching for one simple reason - logistics.

it can can travel faster than they can saturate an area with antibiotics.

macholatte's picture


Gabriel Sherman, the former New York Magazine journalist
Vanity Fair??
Sherman's sources ... unnamed, unverified

I’m calling BULLSHIT!

Son of Loki's picture

Sherman also said Hillary's chance of winning the election was 97%.


There's that, also.

HRClinton's picture

(((They))) are slipping him psychotropic meds.

With a full DOD-CIA firewall of the Praetorian Guard around him, he's unable to regain contact with normal life.  The weekends don't count, as they simply juice him up for the time needed.


serotonindumptruck's picture

So when does Bannon get the Andrew Breitbart treatment?

You know, where the radio-frequencies are attenuated to cause sudden cardiac arrest?

IntTheLight's picture

When does Ivanka realize her hubby married her for the gene pool? Her father in law, like Chelsea's, went to prison. He taped his brother having sex. Wasn't imprisoned for that. Tax evasion I believe. Chelsea's father in law went to prison for stealing 10M from investors.

Jared a pile of dung.

Lovely families the girls married into.

Pausebreak's picture

Actually he was convicted of witness tampering along with bribery.  He sent a hooker to his brother-in-law and she taped the episode and he sent it to his sister.

Dancing Disraeli's picture

What?   The Russia thing isn't cutting it anymore?  How about the 'Trump's a racist' thing?  Do they just recycle each one over and over?  I'm bored.  Come up with something new, assholes.

DosZap's picture

He cannot do it by HIMSELF.

BabaLooey's picture

Oh For FUCK'S sake. Jesus tits....I expect this shit from the likes of CNN. Not here.

chunga's picture

Trump needs to talk to Assange. If he doesn't drain the swamp it will drain him.

Playing nice is not going to work.

dark pools of soros's picture

Trump was the wrecking ball, not a savior. The gates are open and people like Moore and Blackburn are now getting in... more and more need to keep getting in and that is where the real changes happen

nevertheless's picture

Yup, and as always ZH never misses to publish it. 

Cynicles II's picture

headlines draw viewers creating higher ad revenue

nevertheless's picture

I give it a 100% chance that while Bannon and comp keep us focused on more stupid shit, Trump will give amnesty to 40 millions illegals, and end America as we know it. 

serotonindumptruck's picture

Sorry, Steve.

You've been pushed out of the inner circle.

Throwing a temper tantrum while you seek to redeem your reputation just doesn't cut the mustard.

If you are trying to launch a political coup against Washington DC, well then, maybe someone will have a positive reaction to your antics.

SRV's picture

We believe what WE want to believe... even when it's from a LW Rag with the ole reliable "Anonymous Source"... lol!

Yet another crock of shite for the Never-Trumpers zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz 

serotonindumptruck's picture

I voted for Trump, you fucking ass-nozzle.

koan's picture

Wow... Trump and I have something in common, I hate all of those fucks too. *chortle*

LynchThe FederalReserve's picture

Who cares about that. What are the odds that Bannon is going to get that skin condition cleared up? Is that Ebola he has, an STD, or leprosy? He should be forced to wear a bag over his head. No one can look at that face. Even Trump had enough. It looks like he vomited on his own face.

Francis Marx's picture

One has to wonder if this news in real or fake??

Has a high probability of being fake.

Shibumi2's picture


We don't need no stinkin' amendments.