'Hawkish' Fed Minutes Crush Yield Curve To Flattest Since Start Of Last Recession

Tyler Durden's picture

The persistent flattening of the Treasury yield curve appears to still have legs, and that may be a sign of economic trouble ahead.

As Bloomberg details, on Wednesday, the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s September meeting revealed policy makers’ resolve to stick to their tightening path.

The yield curve's reaction to that un-data-dependent hawkishness is very evident... (worsened by today's strong 30Y auction)

The difference between five- and 30-year yields fell below 92 basis points, near the lowest since the start of the last recession.

Policy Error?

Five-year Treasury notes are among the most sensitive to Fed policy.

Who needs an inverted curve for a recession after all?

Furthermore, banks don't seem to need a steeper curve either...

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
knukles's picture

What we have here is not a Nash Equilibrium.

shizzledizzle's picture

Which is the way she wants it... Well, she gets it and I don't like it any more than you men.

Ghost of Porky's picture

This is a vibrator shaped like an invisible hand.

MickV's picture

When the Time Value of your Money is Zero then what is your money worth?

Bryan's picture

Hawkish or Dovish, which is it?  I've seen both titles here on ZH.  If so hawkish, why is the USD retracing back down again today?

shizzledizzle's picture

It's a hawk dove! It coos gently then rips your face off with it's razor sharp beak!

Rainman's picture

Looks like Mr. Efficient Bond Market isn't buying all the tax cut, infrastructure bullshit floating around.

adolphz's picture

Hawk dove is the view.  Funny SHEP WAVE called market moves again today.  I am thinking their big move in stocks starts by Monday latest. Nice gold move. 

buzzsaw99's picture

Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth.  [/sherlock holmes]

IDESofMARCH's picture

Hawkish or Dovish?  No it's Pigish! Going for slaughter.

hotrod's picture

Just print some more money.  36 billion coming up today for the recent climate change incidents

Blue Steel 309's picture

The really impressive thing, is that they can keep it held together with the magnitude of the instability factors. It is pretty easy to find charts that are so divergent, the whole thing should break apart.

Blue Steel 309's picture

They can't keep balancing the circulating money supply with the electronic debt supply forever. Even now, every attempt to pump some more in is getting countered by rich people and middle class hoarders taking it right back out.

hotrod's picture

yeah jobs and better pay would benefit more people.  Dow and houses are at the ATM stage again.

In.Sip.ient's picture

With 1BtC = US$5,300.99 as of right now (!)

I'd say not hawkish enough by a long long ways!


Kurpak's picture

There is no such thing as a hawkish fed with an inflation target higher than zero. It's either dovish or less dovish

Nomad Trader's picture

Why are people even reading that garbage? Does anyone seriously think it has value?