UMich Survey Shows Americans Have Never, Ever Been More Bullish About Stocks

Tyler Durden's picture

Despite storms, wildfires, quakes, higher gas prices, and failed Washington policies, Americans are - according to The University of Michigan - their most confident since January 2004.

 

But we think it's clear what is driving the optimism... total delusion!

Americans have never been more confident that that stock market will rally further in the next 12 months...

 

And despite the fact half of America lives paycheck to paycheck, they have never, ever, been more confident of retiring comfortably...

Additionally, inflation expectactions - both short- and medium-term - tumbled in October.

Expectation for income growth soared to their highest since 2006!

As UMich notes, consumer sentiment surged in early October, reaching its highest level since the start of 2004. The October gain was broadly shared, occurring among all age and income subgroups and across all partisan viewpoints.

There is an unmistakable sense among consumers that economic prospects are now about as good as could be expected.

This "as good as it gets" outlook is supported by a moderation in the expected pace of growth in both personal finances and the overall economy, accompanied by a growing sense that, even with this moderation, it would still mean the continuation of good economic times.

Although such an outlook is typically recorded in the late phase of an expansion, its occurrence is independent of the ultimate length of an expansion. Indeed, nothing in the latest survey indicates that consumers anticipate an economic downturn anytime soon - which contrarians may consider a clear warning sign of trouble ahead.

Nonetheless, consumers anticipate low unemployment, low inflation, small increases in interest rates, and most importantly, modest income gains in the year ahead. It is this acceptance of lackluster growth rates in personal income and in the overall economy that signifies that consumers have accepted, however reluctantly, limits on the pace of improving prospects for living standards.

The data indicate a robust outlook for consumer spending that extends the current expansion to at least mid 2018, which would mark the 2nd longest expansion since the mid 1800's.

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Haus-Targaryen's picture

We keep using the word "markets" but I don't think we know what it means. 

venturen's picture

just take an E pill like everyone else....then everything is wonderful...as you step off a cliff...happy as can be! Ever see the amount of happy drugs sold...just legally

therover's picture

Fuck that...I'll stick to smoking Mother Nature.

Better to be illegal and safe, than legal and dead.

Hammer823's picture

Easy to be confident in a stock market that is completely rigged.

FreeShitter's picture

MAGA was a good drug....better than hope and change.

Philo Beddoe's picture

Obama was a gateway drug. 

BigWillyStyle887's picture

Hope and Change brought it from 55 up to 90. MAGA only got us from 90 to 100. Communist nigger still got that on Trump.

Got The Wrong No's picture

55 to 90 in 8 years - Obama

90 to 100 in 10 months - Trump

The Communist Nigger ain't got shit. 

Neither one of them have anything to do with it.

The FED is rigging the Game. 

Post-Truth Society's picture

Trump is also a Marxist and a Muslim.  FYI.

Fiat Burner's picture

Dumbest people on the planet.

venturen's picture

pretty sure that is North Korea actually.....at least we have a voting chance...even if it takes a number of tries. The bankrutpy of CT, IL, NJ, CA, NY, should get some people's attention

VladLenin's picture

"Irrational exuberance" is a phrase used by the then-Federal Reserve Board chairman...

venturen's picture

hey they have been right for 10 years....

Philo Beddoe's picture

I have never been more fearful of living comfortably in retirement. What gives? 

Maybe these people are expecting large inheritances. Or, they are just fucking idiots. 

cherry picker's picture

You have reason to fear retirement.

Without a good income after 65, people are forced to sell their home or condo they paid for as they can no longer afford the outrageous property taxes or HOA fees.

Then people look to downsizing and rentng a crappy apartment or moving where it is cheaper if you are still healthy and can walk, etc.

I see people in old folks homes and hospitals, sitting or laying there with glazed eyes.  They know that the home or hospital is their last place before the coffin calls.

Retirement is a curse for many, they just don't know it yet.  There are no golden years except for the few.

 

Anteater's picture

You forgot flophouses. They are all the rage with the house-flippers.

Having bought at the top, they are frantically installing locks on the

bedroom doors and searching for tenants. Nothing like a flophouse

to reduce your cost of living. And so much more drama than living

in a nursing home! There's the junkie roomie, the floozy roomie,

the gun-nut roomie, and on weekends, the thumping party music!

You can sit there with your wine spritzer and slap your knee, lol.

 

I looked at a 5BR 2BA two-story the other day, just mattresses on

the floor and not a stick of furniture. The owner lived there and said

they didn't have time, they just sleep there and eat at restaurants.

All of her shit was in big moving boxes. She wanted $750 a room!

That's way better than $1750 for a 1BR apartment in some tower.

mrjinx007's picture

That tells me the top is very close.  

myorouter's picture

it tells me they still don't have a clue.  only Shepwave analysts have been calling this market.  Zerohedge been bearish since Dow 8,000.  ONLY shepwave has been getiing it right.  Not too complicated. 

MuffDiver69's picture

Actually the polls on Trump are Fake and a solid majority of people do not believe nor watch the Main Stream Fake News..Even on ZH the editors live in the click-bait gaslighting world of outrage headlines/journalism..People have tuned out of the 90% bash Trump media and daily Oprah show..Fact is People in the business world know we have the exact opposite of Obama and his regulatory madness..Of course confidence would be up you fucking morons..Grow up clowns..

cherry picker's picture

The USA has turned from a manufacturing, producing nation to a service oriented nation.

That tells me something is amiss.  China can built cities that no one lives in.  USA is losing cities.

The market is going up as it is no longer a free market but controlled by the FED.  That is like communism no?

Americans hate commies and so do the former communist nations China and Russia who have taken a middle of the road approach and it seems to be working, while USA is drifting into commie style rule.

There are no freedoms left, you are ordered to pay exorbitant amounts for hell care, there are tent cities popping up all over, the stock market is no longer a market and U of Michigan has no clue what consumer confidence is.

It is like the former Politburo's propaganda, big brother soothing everyone with bullshit words.

There is something wrong with this picture and I am surprised how many are buying into it, or maybe using credit to get what they want so all is well, but the debt has to be paid sometime and for many that takes more than 40 years.

 

myorouter's picture

Thge usa lost manufactuuring since the 1970s that is comon knowledge. 

spastic_colon's picture

you mean since 2015

Honest Sam's picture

One wonders what to make of polls conducted by unnamed individuals at one of the most liberal, fascist, and speech crushing institutions in the United States.

In order to have sex with a coed, a male lesbian must get a signed note from the distaff side, to move from a kiss on a cheek to a kiss on the lips, and then get a notarized note to move from a kiss on the lips to touching a bra strap, even by accident. It takes a negotiation of several hours to move from that behavior to undoing a bra so that the male can play with her titties. 

I can't trust pollsters who think this kind of passion killing activity is anything but deviant, perverted, and likely paranormal. 

So stuff your UMICH polls up your ass.

I will save the Doom and gloom, historic Market crash prognostications. and this one proposing the opposite, for a year and revisit a comparison of the two to see who was right.

It wouldn't surprise if the markets in October, 2018 are not just about where they are now, with minor insignificant changes. 

 

 

screw face's picture

....deep state indoctrination institutions. 

 

...there fixed it for ya. 

Farmer Joe in Brooklyn's picture

My guess is that roughly 60 million Trump voters think that his presidency will change one damn thing.

They just don't understand that the markets are irreparably broken and the central banks have blown a bubble if epic proportions.

Policy tweaks will have absolutely ZERO affect on anything at this point.

Collapse or hyperinflation (or quite possibly one, then the other) coming to a western nation near you soon.

Tick tock, tick tock....

American Dissident's picture

Still- those that play in the pool and get out after booking 300% gains do quite well...

Anteater's picture

Trump's removal of Fed subsidies for O'Care (to hide bleedout

at the hacked-twice Pentagon, losing $10sB every month now,

at $8,000 B since Rumsfeld was forced to admit the bleedout),

will have a knock-on effect in the economy, if taxpayers get their

O'Care payments back. Lots more discretionary spending on i-Me.

 

Should help fire- and flood-refurbished used car loans, student

loan repayments, McMansion house loans, and rental increases!

What's good for the 1% is good for the loan sharks and rentiers.

(Oh, you have a medical condition? Well, buy a ticket to Mexico.)

 

...but, but it's good what you did, Donald! It was real good!

You're everyone's favorite boy!

GOGMAGOG!!

g3h's picture

So stocks keep gping up.

What can you do?

Consuelo's picture

 

 

Great question.

 

Take the disposable income that you do have, and purchase items/assets that you know you will need (and which will be in demand when, not if), the tide goes out.

American Dissident's picture

And the lower the collective intelligence quotient the more "bullish" the cab drivers become.

Hikikomori's picture

Uh - there were stock markets in the USA pre-1990 - is this the most ever, or the most since 1990?  There WAS a bit of stock market euphoria in 1929, you know.

Consuelo's picture

 

 

"The October gain was broadly shared, occurring among all age and income subgroups and across all partisan viewpoints."

 

There could be truth in the statement above -  say from interviews conducted here in the Bay Area, whose economy is completely fueled by the social media craze and attendant data storage/bandwidth expansion since roughly 2010, but I find it 'odd' that this viewpoint would be 'broadly shared' across the entire economic/regional spectrum.

And how does this data comport with 'Five Stars' accurate observation above of how few Americans actually own stocks in the first place...?

On the surface, this doesn't pass the smell test...

myorouter's picture

According to shepwave analysts there is a big move coming.  

Clowns on Acid's picture

Does that mean I have to go to Shepwave site to find out if big move is going to be up or down? Ummm...why couldn't you just tell us?

hotrod's picture

Truly amazing the organic growth that has provided amazing profits, jobs and well being for so many.  Nothing short of a renaisance. Von Mises can eat shit, the Fed has done it. All hail to the CBS of the world.

For me it is too late, I bought gold but for sake of my 3 kids young and in the work force, they are at least enjoying the best of times.  Thank God

Anteater's picture

It's green shoots all around, but more cash on the sidelines than 2001.

'Yes sir folks, we got trouble, right here in River City', comes to mind.

Buy, Buy, Hold and Go long!! It's your patriotic duty. G-d Bless Israel.

JMT's picture

The northeast particularly the greater Boston & the NYC metropolitan tri state areas are booming and probably the economic conditions across the board are the best in history. From Boston to NYC there is new construction everywhere both residential & commercial (retail & office).  At least in NYC all the 'bad neighborhoods' and evidence of poor people have been totally wiped out

koan's picture

Does UMich have any credibility?

assistedliving's picture

and I've got a War to sell you or else NUKES coming our way

as well as a tinpot lunatic threatens the hell out of us

and another place that can't even feed it's people but hell, they might, might even hit Guam

another place is making our diplo's sick; hell thats a war if i ever heard it

one more place has lots of oil and says bad things about us; cant stand for that right?

Stoxx?  WINNING

 

Apeon's picture

That is because we have someone in the WH that KNOWS REALITY

 

KEEP ON TRUMPING

DIGrif's picture

Be scared when everyone is greedy, and greedy when everyone is scared. ~Buffet

 

"I told you BUY BUY BUY...what? everyone else is buying? then SELL SELL SELL" - ~Rodney Dangerfield (caddyshack)