Trumpfusion? 'Record Low Approval Ratings But Record High Consumer Confidence' Explained

Tyler Durden's picture

Authored by Dilbert Creator Scott Adams via his blog,

How did we get to a place where The President of the United States has historically low approval at the same time we have recent highs for consumer confidence?

Almost everything President Trump does has an impact on the economy, and on consumers. That includes national security, immigration, taxes, health care, budgets, treaties, government regulations, and international relations. If the public is optimistic about the economy, that is normally the same as having confidence in the president. At least on the big-ticket items.

The types of presidential actions that have lower impact on the economy include court appointments, opinions on confederate statues, NFL kneeling, transgenders in the military, birth control funding, unpresidential tweets, poorly-executed disavowals, hyperbole that fails the fact-checking, seemingly unnecessary political attacks, and all manner of obnoxious presidential behavior. The majority of citizens disapprove of President Trump on at least some of those topics.

I don’t think we’ve ever seen something like this before.

A majority of citizens disapprove of President Trump while simultaneously having confidence he’ll get most of the big stuff right and the economy will reflect it.

During the 2016 campaign, my haters mocked me mercilessly on Twitter for predicting that a candidate with insanely low approval ratings could ever get elected president of the United States. I said it wouldn’t be the problem people thought it would be. And it wasn’t. Part of the reason is that Hillary Clinton also had low ratings. But I also suspected there were so-called shy Trump supporters who held private opinions that were different from what the pollsters could suss out.

Now we see a similar situation shaping up. I don’t know whether or not President Trump will seek a second term. But if he ran for reelection today, I expect he would win by a larger margin than the first time, no matter who ran against him. To put it another way, approval ratings aren’t as predictive as you would expect. But consumer confidence is probably close to 100% predictive. Ask Bill Clinton. He’ll tell you It’s the economy, stupid.

Prior to President Trump’s inauguration day I predicted we’d see this story arc play out in the media:

Spring 2017: “Trump is Hitler!”

 

Summer 2017: “Okay, Trump isn’t Hitler. But he’s incompetent!”

 

End of year 2017: “Crap. He’s effective. But we don’t like it.”

Consumer confidence is peaking while the president’s approval rating is in the cellar.

That means people expect him to be effective on the big stuff. But they don’t like him because of the other stuff.

Right on schedule.

*  *  *

If you read this entire blog post, you might also like my new book, Win Bigly. Pre-order at this page and get a bonus chapter by email.

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Hyjinx's picture

Most people are fucking retards.  News at 11.

Plunge Protection's picture

False Confidence, lemmings are confident the next step is on solid ground until it isn't

New_Meat's picture

the same polling agencies that said someone else would win.  That shut up for like 5 hours on election night.  Yep, them.

Dead Canary's picture

"Most people are fucking retards."

That's an insult to the retard community. Trying to talk to most people is like explaining particle physics to a particle.

TheLastTrump's picture

I'm actually impressed with the 45% approval ratings. Even the 35% was pretty healthy, considering the 24/7 propaganda & brainwashing by leftists in this country. I highly doubt his numbers are as low as they say tho. shrug

knukles's picture

Agreed.  If the polls were accurate all the state, local and county elections happening would not be defeats for the Democrats/NWO/Establishment/Faux2parties/Reptilians/whatever

spiral galaxy's picture

True. Check out Gallup, CNN, CBS, etc, and they never move off of 37 range no matter what for the several months and no matter the issue. ....healthcare, hurricanes, taxes, etc. Basically they suck. Oddly, they all hate Trump

Quinvarius's picture

Dude, they are fake polls.  There were debunkings last week.  They are undersampling Republicans even worse than they did during the election.

TheLastTrump's picture

Obama's numbers, always inflated.

 

Trump's numbers, always deflated.

 

That's just how they're going to play it.

 

 

redmudhooch's picture

Does Trump pay you?

If not, he should.

TheLastTrump's picture

That is the greatest fucking compliment I've ever received on the internet- thank you.

 

Now fuck off with your anti Trump shilling. The man's here to save the day, and you're playing in your cat box with turds.

 

 

FreeShitter's picture

Exactly...confusion, chaos, distraction is how they play it and the sheep watch it and enjoy it.

oncefired's picture

Maybe He doesn't have Record Low Approval...Aren't these the same Polling Idiots that told us He had no chance of being President?

knukles's picture

And they told Hillary right up until a few hours of the whole day ending, that she was gonna win, too.
Could you imagine the violence, screaming, throwing shit, etc?

They drove the poor lady crazy.  The they being the them who promised her a turn at the Resolute Desk.  Remember, Bilderberg 2008, it was all decided.
I really think that in running her, the DNC perpetrated honest to God elder abuse.  Why else a private licensed medical facility at her daughter's coop in NYC, eh?  Abortion clinic?  (Think about that one a sec....)

Nobody For President's picture

Knucks - ...elder abuse.

THAT is fucking funny.

ZoroAustrian's picture

All they care about is the stock market (even if they have no assets) and if the easy money is still flowing.  And they know Trump's not gonna stop the presses, not the King of Debt

tmosley's picture

If we voted on people based on how much we liked them, Tom Hanks would be dictator-for-life.

Quinvarius's picture

A majority of polls become more fake as Trump's popularity increases.  He killed Obamacare last week and the Iran deal all by himself.  He probably gained 20 points on his accomplishments.  Hence, fake polls.

TheLastTrump's picture

Great point. Yuuuuuuuuge week for Trump last week. :)

redmudhooch's picture

Yuuuuuuuuge week for what?

Making Israel Great again?

 

gatorengineer's picture

Killed Obowel care, no... by allowing catastropic plans he likely saved it.  Cutting the subsidy? Well that will be alot more interesting if it holds up.

Killed Iran?  Hardly just kicked it to congress, who will draw an obozo style line in the sand.....

How about

1) we prosecute Hitlery Lynch et al... WHERE IS JEFF SESSIONS?

2) How about we require letter of the law compliance for H1Bs (no because he is in bed with Silicon Valley)

3)  How about we enforce Immigration law on the books?  Deportations are DOWN under Trump.  Dont believe me Google it.

4)  Probably never closer to WW3, what happened about restoring relations with Russia

5)  WHat happened to China Anti-dumping?

I voted Orange, I got Cankles....

 

 

 

Fatso's picture

Well said Gator.  I feel the exact same way.

redmudhooch's picture

I voted for Trump, hes not going far enough.

I want more insane, and moron, more Hitler.

I'm not impressed so far, but I haven't totally given up on the loser yet.

redmudhooch's picture

What? I'm serious Mr. TheLasttrump

Hitler was awesome.

jcaz's picture

Ah yes, the "I voted for Trump but" retard move- common with assholes that have been on this board only 18 weeks-  jeezas........

Bonus retard points for replying to your own post.

Fuck off libtard......

redmudhooch's picture

Hope you like DACA moochers, cause your hero Trump loves them.

MAGA!

 

Bagelman's picture

Terrible article! One of Zero Hedges worst writers.

Sweet Cheeks's picture

Trump is merely doing what he said he would when he campaigned. And he is having to do it by himself because Congress and most of his cabinet are doing nothing but obstructing him.

Likely that poll was taken in the halls of Congress just among the GOPe. Am surprised Trump even rated that high among those sorry Globalist commies run by the Chamber of Commerce, K Street lobbyists, insurance companies, MIC CEOs, and the Business Round Table.

TheLastTrump's picture

Now I know what you guys were talking about Seth Rich for>

 

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2017/10/tick-tock-assange-releases-myste...

 

 

/tick-tock-assange-releases-mysterious-encryption-key-one-week-hannity-tweets-t-minus-7-counting/

gatorengineer's picture

Seth Rich was a Russian mole the truth that he was actually Putin's Nephew will come out on CNBS shortly.

redmudhooch's picture

Fake News!

Trump and Hillary are buddies.

Hikikomori's picture

It's the same thing as choosing the obnoxious surgeon with the terrible bedside manner to do your cancer operation - because he has the best patient survival statistics. 

ThrowAwayYourTV's picture

Dont get me started on that mutt obama. Never in the history of this country has the black and white populations been so seperated because of his Black Supremacy BS.

We should have never elected a black/white/black president. And dont even consider a woman president! Imagine the seperation there! Little men! Who do you think you're talking to little man?

Son of a bitch! All us white men will be on our knees begging for forgiveness for being a white male.

And why do these mutts always go to the black side. Why dont they say, I'm black and white but I identify as white. WTF. I know why! Because identifying as black automatically gives them a reason to bitch.

Vinividivinci's picture

riiiight, cause we all know how accurate polling results are.

444age's picture

It would seem that the DOW's surge gives everyone a false sense of optimism. People don't realize that the FED is priming and pumping the DOW at every turn as well as the commodity markets -it's dcertainly not the bankrupt States or the failing pension funds or the middle class that lives from paycheck to paycheck. It's an illusion. As long as people feel confident about the market, they couldn't care less about the wars for profit or the proxy wars for Israel, partly because the presstitutes don't report the truth.

Md4's picture

"That means people expect him to be effective on the big stuff. But they don’t like him because of the other stuff."

It's the lack of progress on the "other stuff" they don't like.

As for the economy, it's on a collision course with the future, the president notwithstanding.

Those who still believe in swamp draining will have the chance to turbocharge the effort by refusing to vote for anything running for reelection next year.

Vote for the dead if necessary, but do not reelect the swamp...

Rebelrebel7's picture

I wasn't polled, but had voted for Trump. The only things that I am happy with that he has done so far are no nuclear war to date, no TPP,  and I am also happy that he had pulled out of the Paris  accord, while being simultaneously disgusted with the extreme antienvironmental rhetoric. I am an environmentalist, but the Paris Accord increases global pollution by allowing for developing nations to continue increasing pollution, including China, which is currently the world's largest polluter, and fine developed countries for not decreasing theirs, and also requires developed countries to finance the transfer to renewable energy technology, prior to our own transition. 

I am upset with Trump over the Russian,  Iranian, North Korean, Syrian threats, Syrian bombing,  U.S. Navy South China Sea and Straits of Hormuz provocations,  Saudi and Israeli weapons contracts, Saudi and Israeli coddling, 10%  increase in defense spending, increased militarization of local police departments, the proposal to end state tax write offs,  for not writing executive orders which would repeal all laws in violation of the Bill of Rights and the constitution , the Goldman Sachs and MIC department heads,  the swampier swamp, and the reckless tweets.

I don't think that I will vote for him again, unless he becomes more of a populist candidate, and enacts policies beneficial to those who are not wielding the power of special interest groups like Wall St., the MIC, and the fossil fuel industry.

 

Silver Savior's picture

An environmentalist voting for Trump??????!!!!!!!!!! You must be furious by now. I kind of care about the environment but Trump would be the last person on my list to deal with. Just sayin'. And just think about his carbin footprint. Ouch!!!!!!!

Rebelrebel7's picture

Well Sir, considering that Hillary intended to start a no fly zone over Syria, which Putin said would be met with retaliation, and would have immediately landed us into world war, I concluded that the carbon footprint of world war, and the blood print of it would have been worse. 

Rebelrebel7's picture

I am amazed that tbe environmentalists haven't tallied up obamas 7 war carbon footprint. It must be astronomical ! 

Maybe I should inform them that war actually has a carbon footprint, since they are apparently too stupid to realize it on their own!

Rebelrebel7's picture

ATTENTION ALL ENVIRONMENTALISTS! WAR IS BAD FOR THE ENVIRONMENT! IT CREATES TONS OF CARBON!

There. Now may be they will vandalize Obama's library, since he presided over 7 wars, started 5, and was the only modern president to have been at war every day during his 8 year reign of carbon terror. 

They thought that it just killed people. 

Silver Savior's picture

Since Trump was elected I actually went into full panic mode. I want to hang on to as much money as possible or trade it for metals. My consumer confidence is at an all time low. Nothing to see here. Move along and spend to make you feel better somehow.