The Crash Of '87 Remembered: "It Was Clear The Acapulco Cliff-Dive Was On For Monday"

Tyler Durden's picture

“The markets in a panic are like a country during a coup, and seen in retrospect that is how they were that day,” wrote a young Salomon bond salesmena named Michael Lewis, of the chaos he witnessed. “One small group of people with its old, established way of looking at the world is hustled from its seat of power.”

As Bloomberg details, most of the people willing to share their memories count themselves as winners who seized the moment as an opportunity not only to make money, but also to insert themselves in the new financial order - Paul Tudor Jones, Stanley Druckenmiller, Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Their story, and the story of Black Monday, is the birth story of modern financial markets - a wild ride of shock, angst, and, for some, glory.

In the weeks before Black Monday, a few investors spotted patterns that gave them pause.

The most confident were Paul Tudor Jones and Peter Borish, young partners at a small hedge fund in Lower Manhattan. In a prescient Sept. 24 note to investors, Jones even signed off with “caveat emptor” - buyer beware.

 

PETER BORISH, head of research at Tudor Investment Corp. and Paul Tudor Jones’s No. 2:

We were tracking exponential moves in the equity market. The main one was the equity move in the 1920s, and the market in 1987 looked almost identical. The week before Black Monday, the technical and fundamentals aligned, and so we thought Monday would be the day.

ALLAN ROGERS, head of government bond trading at Bankers Trust Co.:

In the first half of 1987, the bond and stock markets diverged for seven months. Bonds went straight down, equities straight up. These sorts of divergences always get my attention. In August and September, I persuaded management to cover all of our hedged short positions in sovereign fixed income, and we built up a long position in notes and bonds.

MICHAEL LEWIS, bond salesman at Salomon Brothers:

A week or two before Black Monday, Salomon announced job cuts. They chopped a few departments, including the municipal and money-market groups. It felt ill-considered and rushed. Nobody completely understood why.

ROGERS:

Nippon Tel, the Japanese telephone company, was going to do an IPO in mid-August. I thought that would pull money from other segments of the equity market. In early October there was another IPO, which I think was a very large British company. These IPOs were a big deal to me, because the main thing I pay attention to is changes in global money flow.

BORISH:

Many people thought that Japan would crash before the U.S., because Japan was more extended on fundamentals; they would be long U.S. and short Japan. We looked at the 1920s, and it was Britain, the older bull market, that went first. So we said, “No, the old goes first, because people have more hope on the new.” By the way, Japan didn’t go until 1989.

STANLEY DRUCKENMILLER, founder of Duquesne Capital Management, who was also running several funds for Jack Dreyfus’s mutual fund company:

On Friday I placed a bet that U.S. stocks would rally, on the thinking that the week’s 9 percent decline in the Dow had been overdone. Over the weekend, after studying trading charts and talking to Jack, I knew I was wrong.

While Druckenmiller considered his options that weekend, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury James Baker III told his German counterparts: “Either inflate the mark or we’ll devalue the dollar.”

PAUL TUDOR JONES, founder of Tudor Investment Corp.:

When Baker threatened a devaluation of the dollar over the weekend, it was apparent the Acapulco cliff dive was on for Monday.

JIM LEITNER, Bankers Trust FX trader:

During the day, the noise level in the trading room got quite ferocious. The chairman of the bank, who at one point had been a trader, walked onto the trading floor and stood behind my chair, which was a first.

LEWIS:

I remember walking from the 41st floor down to the 40th floor. The 41st floor was this cathedral of bonds, and then you walked down to 40 and were in this cramped, low-ceiled, dark place that was the equity department, with a lot of guys who were named Vinny and Tommy and Donny. They’d been around forever, and they had Brylcreem in their hair and big guts and they smoked too much and they were lovable. And they were all going through this visceral animal experience. People were screaming and going absolutely crazy in ways I’d never seen before. It was the first time in my career at Salomon Brothers where I was actually interested in standing beside the equity department and watching these people do their job.

JONES:

There was red everywhere, and all I could think about was how cornered the portfolio insurers were.

HOWARD MARKS, head of the high?yield bond department at Trust Company of the West:

Portfolio insurance convinced people that they could somehow own more stocks without increased risk, which is fanciful. And like all silver bullets, it didn’t work.

HARLEY BASSMAN, mortgage trader at Merrill Lynch & Co.:

As a mortgage trader, I was watching stocks in what seemed like an out-of-body experience—and yes, I was thinking 1929.

JONES:

The friends and counterparties I was speaking with were gripped with complete fear.

BLAIR HULL, managing partner of Hull Trading Co., a Chicago-based market-making firm specializing in options:

The 1987 crash is the only time I’ve ever seen the market makers scared to death.

CHANOS:

I canceled my meetings and went to a friend’s office. The few times I tried to enter orders, I couldn’t get through. The structure of the market was dependent on these technologies that were voluntary. I was trying to cover my shorts and a buyer is what they were looking for, but people were not picking up the phones. So basically I sat on my hands, which turned out to be the right thing to do.

I check into my hotel, and there’s all kinds of security. I asked what was going on: Alan Greenspan and Margaret Thatcher were both checked in as guests. I get to my room and I’m trying to call New York, but I can’t get through. I had to go to another friend’s office, because the Fed chief and his staff had basically subverted the hotel switchboard.

BORISH:

We were concerned about a lot of the counterparties and their liquidity, so the best place to be was in fixed-income futures, because if worse came to worst, we could always take delivery of the bonds.

SHIELDS:

Greenspan lands in Dallas, and the story is that when he got off the plane he asked where the market ended up. The response was “Five oh eight” and Greenspan replied: “Oh, good, it had a nice rally.” He thought it was 5.08. He had only been in office since August, so I think he was a bit of a deer in the headlights.

ROGERS:

I was so scared that I got $10,000 out of the bank, took it home, and stored it in the rafters. When I moved out, I forgot that I’d stashed the money. I think it’s still there.

JONES:

I was feeling guilty about our success. I thought we were going into the Great Depression.

BORISH:

I had 1929 on my mind. Paul and I were concerned about our friends and people who were struggling that day.

*  *  *

And here is Paul Tudor Jones' infamous live interview as the dust settled...

So what was learned from the Crash of ’87? Not much in my opinion.

As John S Lyons summed up perfectly, for starters, the laws of human nature have yet to be repealed. Additionally, high frequency trading is today’s version of program trading. Only now, instead of transmitting an order through a stock broker, who sends it to a floor broker, who give it to a trader, who takes it to a specialist at the post where the stock in question is trading, high frequency computer generated orders are automatically entered at the behest of complex algorithms and are executed and reported back in milliseconds. Witness the May of 2010 “flash crash” where the market lost about 1000 points and then mostly recovered all within 15 minutes.

In summary, risk cannot be removed from the stock market. The Crash of ’87 affected everyone. Crashes will occur again. Wear a seat belt!

*  *  *

Could never happen again...

 

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YCtheL's picture

no, dont read marketwatch no more.

Truther's picture

History will repeat itself as it sure damn rhymes.

NoDebt's picture

Bottom graphic by the Tylers.... so what you're saying is that the S&P might drop to 2100 if we have a 1987-sized crash?  

<Gasp!>  The horror!

 

spastic_colon's picture

i think they forget about the 50% runup in '87 prior to that point......-30% today would be -750+ ES points

El Oregonian's picture

All signs point to... A manipulated "Maybe".

in4mayshun's picture

Im wondering if the markets even matter any more. With bots and CB's controlling every major movement they may have become more auxiliary components of the financial system. Make no mistake though, debt and the pension crises is going to cut this country off at the knees, and at that point, the DOW and S&P might not even matter to many people anymore. One thing is certain, there will be no winners; every nation on the planet is going down next time...and maybe that's what the goal has been all along.

YCtheL's picture

SP will be looking at another 30% non sense up trend till everyone is talking about buying equity insteada anything else. would bots give us more volatility or should CB buying everything all over again?

Implied Violins's picture

Oh, it will happen, all right. No "maybe" about it. And when it does - and it will happen SOON - it will be EPIC, like death of the stock market EPIC.

The bastards that run this shit have every intention of taking EVERYTHING, and literally throwing the rest of us overboard. They need to destroy the dollar AND America to establish their NWO.

pickupthatcan's picture

I remember 10/19/87 well. I took my Series 7 on 10/17. Went to work on my first day at Stuart James on the 19th. They said take off, we don't need you anymore.

Welcomed me to the life of "Churn & Burn."

TeethVillage88s's picture

Never happen with PPT, and Brakes on it.

But 30%-50%.

Come Monday Lyrics

Come Monday It'll be all right,
Come Monday I'll be holding you tight.
I spent four lonely days in a Manhattan haze
And I just want you back by my side.

Yes it's been quite a summer,
Rent-a-whores and fine dining & Limos.
And now you're off on vacation,
Somethin' you tried to explain.
And Investors I love you so that's
The reason I just let you go.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/double-irish-with-a-dutch-sandwich.asp

https://www.expatistan.com/cost-of-living/country/philippines?currency=USD

http://www.xe.com/currencyconverter/convert/?Amount=500&From=PHP&To=USD

50 PHP Pesos to the US Dollar

Bay of Pigs's picture

The flash crash in May, 2010 is a distant memory.

Classic audio...

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=E1xqSZy9_4I

shizzledizzle's picture

*Not to scale* If the market suffered a event like 87, that green line would head south to about where my comment resides.

No Time for Fishing's picture

This time is different. Traders have been properly trained and conditioned to BTFD, we even have youtube videos to remind them. 

nope-1004's picture

So one chart laying over another is implying something.  I guess my take away from that implication is that if we have a disastrous S&P correction, chart tells me that it will go from 2550 to 2100, or a drop of 17.7%.

 

giorgioorwell's picture

Don't worry Tyler, eventually you'll get your market crash, but probably 15 years after you called for it.

NoDebt's picture

You beat me to it, nope-1004.  I just noticed the same thing and thought "that's not so bad".  Hell, I'd just consider that a welcome "buyable dip" at this point.

 

Wang Dang SP's picture

 

<<<<Ctrl P

<<<<Jump Fvkers

MK13's picture

Fake news. Market crashes don't happen within a month (or 95% of cases within 3 months) of new market high. For markets to crash, uptrend already has to be reigned in.

So not before November 15th at the earliest.

hibou-Owl's picture

Your concentrating on the US market, europe momentum has already turned, and will be the trigger. US will follow.
Look at the monthly CAC40 with the massive triangle formed back to pre 2000.

Same with Bunds.

wisehiney's picture

THAT would wake you up on a rainy monday morning.

LawsofPhysics's picture

LOL!!  remind us, what was the national DEBT in 1987?

How about the Federal Funds rate?

LMFAO!!!  This is NOT the 80's not by a long shot you stupid fucks.

Dode415's picture

Definitely not the 80's - could be a lot worse - the national debt now and extremely low interest rates would seem to suggest that there is not much ammo left to fight any crash that might take hold

TeethVillage88s's picture

About $2 Trillion & ... overnight rate on its way up to 9.8% in '89 or about 7%

$T Debt Added
J. Carter, ,$0.37 T (4 yrs)
R. Reagan, $1.69 T

LawsofPhysics's picture

"overnight rate on its way up to 9.8%"

 

Yeah, go ahead Mr. Yellen, raise those rates!!!!

This would be the "even bigger" short...

LOLOLOLOL!

 

takeaction's picture

I logged in on a cruise ship in Oslo Norway just to up-vote your comment.  LOL  You are so right.  "Stupid Fucks"  I love it.  There was no HFT...No PPT...No Fed with unlimited buying power to stop a crash.  There was no Bitcoin...No Donald Trump, No 9/11....No cell phones to speak of...remember the bag phones...I had one.  Worked really good.   This is the new normal.  I could be wrong....and boy was I wrong buying all of the PMs I did.  Would I be in the market right now....nope.  Do I wish I was in through this run...of course I do.  I wish I had purchased BC at .25 cents. or whatever it started at.  I just think there are too many aspects to this illusion that will not be allowed to break.  This casino is rigged....and rigged good with safety nets in place.  My metals raft has sunk so many times in my lake I really think I have created a "Tidal Surge" in my area....hope I can remember where it sank if it ever passes $2000 again.  Just my thoughts.  Great comment.  

NoDebt's picture

Love the Unisys commercial at the beginning of the clip.  30 years from now when they're plaing the video clips from the next great market crash the ads will be for Apple.  And everyone will ask "who?"

 

Hulk's picture

They will be using the mphone 4 from banana by then...

giorgioorwell's picture

Don't worry Tyler, eventually you'll get your market crash, but probably 15 years after you called for it.  

LawsofPhysics's picture

To quote Ben Bernanke...  "Not in anyone's lifetime"

A real world war will happen first. in the meantime...

"Full Faith and Credit"

1 Alabama's picture

clueless is, what clueless does, even for 110lb clowns

 

full faith and, DEFAULT!  Witches

BigSwingingJohnson's picture

wans't that from Janet Yellen?

 

myorouter's picture

Tylers know what is going on.  The dooms day bait that any real traders on here fall for is the way to make money off of click bait.  Very smart. 

Rock On Roger's picture

Oh, looky. USA was shelling Iran. Market warmongery.

 

Not until the first bomb drops.

RagaMuffin's picture

"the laws of human nature have yet to be repealed." not repealed but rediscovered only to be forgotten again and again and again ...............

Honest Sam's picture

There are no "laws of human nature". Laws are simply rules of thumb, highly fluid, and bagging to be broken.

There are however two aspects of human nature that are embedded in the DNA, and RNA:

Fear and Greed. 

Nearly all of humanity's difficulties, tragedies, apocalytic events, disasters, and injustice are to be found in the oscillating polar movement between these two endemic states. 

Al Huxley's picture

Those charts that keep comparing 87 to current are not similar where it counts.  In 87 the market had sold off and rebounded, and the crash was the failure of the rebound.  No initial failure in today's market.  Anybody thinking some superficial lineup as presented above is meaningful could be in for a disappointing remainder of the year.

myorouter's picture

For any old enough and sane enough on here, that was a great buying opportunity.  The rich get richer.  Those of us who knew to buy were buying.  These articles are making false comparisons as you say.  The one market analyst who was predicting the buying op in october 87 and is calling market moves today is Shepwave.  

flea's picture

ROGERS: "I was so scared that I got $10,000 out of the bank, took it home, and stored it in the rafters. When I moved out, I forgot that I’d stashed the money. I think it’s still there."

Curious ... where did you live?

Hank Stinkhammer's picture

No 'markets' no crash

MrBoompi's picture

If the author was to add a few more years to his graph, the 1987 "plunge" wouldn't look as bad as he tries to make it look.  Of course it would be nice to sell before a 22% drop.  But it seems only the best-connected insiders are able to pull this off.  For the rest of us, we can usually survive a selloff and the prices seem to rebound in short order.  It seems some of these chicken littles want a market disaster.  What's the fucking deal?  

Honest Sam's picture

Pessimists just wanna have fun.

Manipuflation's picture

Lots of blow and hookers the night before I am sure.

Jay's picture

I remember president Reagan said that the crash was nothing to worry about and that the best thing to do was hold. The FUD-spreading press mocked and pilloried him saying how out of touch he was with reality. The press was calling for an economic collapse. Of course, Reagan was right. The best thing to do was to hold and ride it out.

Herdee's picture

The plunge protection team and the trading desks at Treasury and the Fed are more coordinated now and have a lot more sophisticated technology.  There's a lot more currency printing among various other central banks as well in order to hold up the extent of the corruption. Why you ask? it's to hold up the deep or inner state government. The structural reforms often talked about go much deeper and mean a loss of influence corporations and the deep state actors. Structural reforms actually mean next generation, sophisticted technologies that produce energy at next to no cost and peaceful communications not just with other countries but also with those that are watching us.

assistedliving's picture

as I been saying the last ten years, sounds about right to me....

the only difference is i'm ten years older