"When", Not "If"

Tyler Durden's picture

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

The market is downright bullish. There is little reason to argue the point given the bullish trends of markets globally which are strongly trending, positively correlated, and simultaneously breaking out to all-time highs. Of course, such is not surprising given the massive levels of Central Bank interventions, suppressed interest rates, and global coordination between Government’s and major asset managers (banks) over the last eight years.

Importantly, as bullishness has reached historically high levels, the fear of a market crash, or another crisis, has faded into the abyss. As Mark DeCambre noted:

By at least one measure, the S&P 500 index is on pace to register its lengthiest period of quiescence in more than two decades—and perhaps ever.

 

The broad-market benchmark hasn’t experienced a decline of at least 3% since Nov. 7, 2016. That 236-day span registers as the second-longest period without a single-session drop of that magnitude since the 241 days from Jan. 26, 1995 to Jan. 9, 1996, according to Pension Partners’ Charles Bilello (see table below):

This lack of volatility, flood of liquidity from Central Banks, and a seemingly “bullet-proof” rise in the market has boosted investor confidence to exuberant levels. That consistent push higher, without a correctionary process along the way, has pushed the market into “extremely overbought, extended, and bullish territory.” As shown visually in last weekend’s newsletter:

When I discuss this, I am often asked exactly what is meant by such a statement. This week, I am going provide a basic course in technical analysis as the “overbought, bullish and extended” theme is likely to remain intact for several months to come.

Clarifying Over Bought, Extended & Bullish

What exactly is meant by the markets being overbought, overextended and overly bullish? These are concepts, which once understood, will hopefully lead you to managing your money more successfully over the long term.

What Do You Mean By Overbought?

I am often asked that since there is “always a buyer for every seller,” then how can a market become overbought?

Before we get into the raw technical analysis of showing the “overbought” condition let’s rationalize what one is and how it occurs.

First, while it is true that there is always a buyer and seller in every transaction it is the “supply and demand” of those buyers and sellers at a particular price point that affects the overall price. Let me explain.

Imagine two rooms of 100 individuals each that want to buy shares of ABC stock. Room A has 100 individuals that currently own ABC stock and Room B has 100 individuals with cash wanting to buy shares of ABC. The table below shows a very simplified model of this process.

At $10 a share, there are numerous buyers but sellers are few. The demand for the shares drives the price higher which entices more sellers. As long as the demand for shares outpaces the supply of sellers – the price is pushed higher. However, at some point, the price reaches a level that exhausts the supply of buyers.  The next price decline occurs as sellers have to begin lowering prices to find buyers.

So, while there is always a buyer and seller for every transaction it is the relative supply and demand for those shares at current prices that determine the “overbought” and “oversold” conditions.

The chart below shows several methods I look at to try and determine if buyers are potentially reaching a point of “exhaustion” which might lead to a price reversal in the short-term. The top of the chart looks at the historic deviation between the price of the market as compared to the 200-dma. The bottom 4-indicators are measures of price movement and participation (The bottom two panels are the number of stocks above the 50 and 200-dma.)

Don’t get too hung-up on trying to understand all the nuances of the chart. The important point, from a money management standpoint, is the determination of the potential risk/reward opportunity for allocating capital to the markets at any given time.

As a portfolio manager, clients tend “not to like” having their capital invested in the markets only to almost immediately suffer a principal loss. By using some measures to determine the current risk/reward outcome, the deployment of capital can be more effectively timed.

While the chart is suggesting the market has reached levels where buyers have typically been turned into sellers, it is important to understand that just because the indicator has reached an extreme level – the market will not necessarily fall apart immediately. It is a warning sign that suggests further upside in the market is relatively limited compared to the downside risk that currently exists.

The average correction that resolved the overbought condition, since the end of the last financial crisis, has been as little as -3% but as much as -19%. It is for this reason that I continue to suggest NOT chasing the markets at the current time. There will be a correction of some magnitude in the near future that will allow for a safer entry of new capital into the markets. Patience, however, will likely be tested before that opportunity presents itself.

How Can A Market Get Over Extended?

Now that we have defined what overbought means – I can explain what I mean by overextended. As I discussed in “Visualizing Bob Farrell’s 10 Investing Rules”:

“Like a rubber band that has been stretched too far – it must be relaxed in order to be stretched again. This is exactly the same for stock prices that are anchored to their moving averages. Trends that get overextended in one direction, or another, always return to their long-term average. Even during a strong uptrend or strong downtrend, prices often move back (revert) to a long-term moving average.

 

The chart below shows the S&P 500 with a 52-week simple moving average. The bottom chart shows the percentage deviation of the current price of the market from the 52-week moving average.  During bullish trending markets, there are regular reversions to the mean that create buying opportunities.  However, what is often not stated is that in order to take advantage of such buying opportunities profits should have been taken out of portfolios as deviations from the mean reached historical extremes.  Conversely, in bearish trending markets, such reversions from extreme deviations should be used to sell stocks, raise cash and reduce portfolio risk rather than ‘panic sell’ at market bottoms.”

The dashed blue lines denoted when the markets changed trends from positive to negative. This is the very essence of portfolio “risk” management.

The idea of “stretching the rubber band” can be measured in several ways, but I will limit our discussion this week to two: Standard Deviation and Distance.

As I noted in this past weekend’s newsletter, “Standard Deviation” is defined as:

“A measure of the dispersion of a set of data from its mean. The more spread apart the data, the higher the deviation. Standard deviation is calculated as the square root of the variance.”

In plain English this means, and as shown in the chart below, is that the further away from the average that an event occurs the more unlikely it becomes. As shown below, out of 1000 occurrences, only three will fall outside of the area of 3 standard deviations. 95.4% of the time events will occur within two standard deviations.

For the stock market, and as shown in both charts above, the standard deviation is measured is with Bollinger Bands.  John Bollinger, a famous technical trader, applied the theory of standard deviation to the financial markets.

Because standard deviation is a measure of volatility, Bollinger created a set of bands that would adjust themselves to the current market conditions. When the markets become more volatile, the bands widen (move further away from the average), and during less volatile periods, the bands contract (move closer to the average).

The closer the prices move to the upper band, the more overbought the market, and the closer the prices move to the lower band, the more oversold the market.

The dashed purple line is the 50-week moving average (or mean) with shaded area representing 2-standard deviations. As shown in the chart above, 2-standard deviations encompass 95.4% of all probable price movement.Even during the 2012-15, QE3 driven, stock advance, there were several corrections back to the 50-week moving average which allowed for increases in equity risk.

The chart on the next page shows this more clearly. The blue colored vertical bars represent when the price of the index has risen 5%, or more, above the 50-week moving average. The orange-ish bars represent a move of 5%, or more, below the moving average.

Currently, with the index more than 7% above its 50-week moving average, there is little questioning that the markets are extended to the upside. From this point, there are two things that could occur. If this is only an intermediate-term top, and the markets are going to remain in a bullish trend, then any correction should remain confined to a retracement back to the 50-week moving average.

However, if the markets are building a longer term top then a reversion past the 50-week moving average will denote a possible change into a bear market. Bull and bear markets are denoted below by how they trade either above or below the 50-week moving average.

Measuring Extreme Optimism

“It is a bad sign for the market when all the bears give up. If no-one is left to be converted, it usually means no-one is left to buy.” – Pater Tenebrarum

That quote got me thinking about the dearth of bearish views that are currently prevalent in the market. The chart below shows the monthly level of bullish outlooks according to our composite indicator of both individual and professional investors.

The extraordinarily low level of “bearish” outlooks combined with extreme levels of complacency within the financial markets has historically been a “poor cocktail” for future investment success.

Much like measuring overbought and overextended conditions – overly bullish optimism, or a “lack of fear” of a market correction, are historically seen at intermediate and longer-term market peaks. This is also the case with consumer “sentiment” which also just registered the highest level on record of individuals expecting the markets to rise over the next 12-months.

As I wrote previously, “records are records for a reason.” 

With bullish sentiment and complacency at extreme levels, it only further supports the idea that the current risk of investing new capital in the markets outweighs the potential reward. It is very likely that sometime within the next couple of weeks, to a couple of months, the markets will experience at least an intermediate-term correction.

Could it turn into a more serious correction? Sure. However, we won’t know that until we get there.

I hope this helps clarify things.

For now, holding a little extra cash certainly won’t detract significantly from portfolio performance but will provide an opportunity to take advantage of panicked sellers later. It’s not a question of “if, only of “when.”

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
venturen's picture

just compare to a chart of the Venezuela or Zimbabwe stock markets....they can go to million...all they need to do is print more worthless $

stitch-rock's picture

Spoofing HFT's is the means by which
'demand and supply' are co-opted as a
means of price determination, or discovery.

spastic_colon's picture

which means that if IBM were down 8% today instead of up 8% the index would still be up 1% because "they" would redirect the flows into the other dow constituents to offset, starting with the highest weighted.

Irvingm's picture

Crash we'll be inevitable. Heshe is right. Secret is to keep looking in profits.

2ndamendment's picture

It's the "when" part that's really hard to figure out. Will it be 2018 or 2118? The Fed (with the spurious help from the SNB, and other central banks) has proven they can hold this house of cards up for a really long time. 

Racer's picture

Yep, as long as the central bwanksters can print money regardless and are price insensitive buyers then.... to infinity and beyond!

CarrierWave's picture

Irrationally, the markets charged ahead for 4 years in 94-98, or 3 years in 2012-2015.

The central banks are in full control. No crash is coming, and those who are out of the markets will keep watching it going up and miss out.

Trade the trend and exit when the trend changes. Yes- you have to be disciplined. 

This is it's picture

If, not when. Cos this time it's different. 

small axe's picture

if you need a buyer, call the SNB:

1-800-BUY-AAPL

Frozen's picture

"I'm your huckleberry"

-PPT

Irvingm's picture

Crash has been coming since Dow 7 thousand. Lots of money lost following this. 

 

ShepWave keeps calling correct market action. Keep it up guys.

wisehiney's picture

Same as last week/month/year/decade/century/millennium.

MsCreant's picture

You don't think the Fed is buying all of this?

RagaMuffin's picture

At some point this guy is going to start reycling everything he has written

Irvingm's picture

U do realize he has already been

RagaMuffin's picture

LOL, he's riffing off recurring themes. That has an endpoint literally

LawsofPhysics's picture

LOL!  Yes, there is value in laughter...

"Price" you say, priced in what exactly?

Personally I think it is a fool's errand to discuss prices in the absence of a true mechanism for price discovery. But hey, I am sure CONgress will eventually hold people/corporations responsible for all those mortgage backed securities that nearly destroyed us all and that still remain on the Fed's balance sheet...

In the meantime...

"Full Faith and Credit"

Smerf's picture

Until the Federal Reserve and it's $4.5 trillion dollar balance sheet is wound up, there really is no point.

shizzledizzle's picture

Got way too many buyers in the overbought/oversold chart... How many central banks are there?

jewish_master's picture

why make something complicated....

Its a stock market by the boomers, for the boomers. this game wont end until most of them are in retirement. we will start seeing this next 3 years or so as the baton is trsnsfered to Y. started in 1985 when they entered the key positions and will end with them leaving. last 10 years was to comfy thier retirment portflios. gen x and z are small enough to not make policy changes. 

over time the charade become more and more complcated, but in essence its the same shit going back 32 years ago.

 

jamesmmu's picture

I think the market is topping. Yes, there is no sellers, but buyers are not actually putting money into the market, mostly move them around. Oil drop, DOW up, gold up, DOWN down,,, NASQ down, DOW up or verse vice. for the past 7 years, the market up steadily, everything is moving up at one direction which means investors consistely putting MORE money into the market, not just move them around. In short, investors are still bullish, but they are tight, little cash to buy stocks.

Seasmoke's picture

The greatest blow off top. The world has ever seen. Enjoy it while you can.

jtmo3's picture

Ya...nobody buying. Where do you guys come up with this shit?

Jack Offelday's picture

234 days without a 3% decline is noteworthy.  Like most bears, I have almost given up... that should be a good indicator of what's about to happen.

ReturnOfDaMac's picture

Bullish. STFU and BTFD.

Deep Snorkeler's picture

I can't think anymore.

The market doesn't seem to follow any of the old rules.

1. the markets are robotized, human fear and greed don't play anymore

2. oil prices are low

3. interest rates are low

4. employment is up

5. all data seems to be funny,

like the entire economy is a baroque facade.

I am overwhelmed with a strange anxiety.

francis scott falseflag's picture

SILLY!

 

Manipulation is and was the first rule of every market.

Did you think it just packed its bags and went away?

 

 

"I am overwhelmed with a strange anxiety."

 

Like when you interviewed at GS and your fly was unzipped the entire time.

 

gaoptimize's picture

Fundamentals make me the last bear standing.

1) Corrupt self-intertested Government: Check

2) Uncontrollable debt at all levels from personal, to local, state, Federal: Check

 -2a) Financial assumptions/decisions based on out of control unfunded liabilities: Check

3) Cultural devolution: Check

4) Empire fraying at the edges with weak and effete allies: Check

The bears will feast on carrion.

 

 

CarrierWave's picture

All that is nice and good - BUT USELESS for making money - because Central Banks ARE the ones driving the market.

Want to make money? - Stay with the trend regardless of all that fancy-schmency analytical stuff.

When the trend changes - Exit.

Tolomeo's picture

This is a F.... You Market!!! A Volcanic eruption pales in comparison...

gm_general's picture

"Some say the end is near. Some say we'll see Armageddon soon. I certainly hope we will. I sure could use a vacation from this. Bullsh*t three ring circus ..."

David Wooten's picture

“It is a bad sign for the market when all the bears give up. If no-one is left to be converted, it usually means no-one is left to buy.” – Pater Tenebrarum

Marc Faber gave up yesterday.

francis scott falseflag's picture

No one is left to buy.

Except for the Market Manipulators who are now throwing even better money after their good?

 

When enough time elapses to prove their control and enough 'other' players and their money

join the cabal, then will the MM promote a 'controlled sell-off' down to a pre-arranged number

(probably of the Dow, maybe fibinuccisque or Golden Meanish, or even surfing the Elliot wave)

where all the profits of selling and shorting at the top are booked, where the MM's old position,

and then some, is retaken and where the market demonstrates that it can correct itself, with the

leadership of experienced manipulators.  

 

THERE'S NOTHING LIKE EXCELLENT LEADERSHIP.  HOW SWEET IT IS.

Scornd's picture

Every bit of wealth you guys invest with These assholes redirects into fewer hands with every dip. you need the system more than it needs you or you would quit playing and I know people are getting their two little dollars but it's a very bad deal for you and all cream for the Banks.Look around at everyone getting money- It's basicly required that you drink or dose heavily so you can sell the future down the road for your comfort. Blissfully. You shouldn't accept crumbs when u know these assholes are extorting you by controlling the wealth.

francis scott falseflag's picture

 

SIC SEMPER ERAT, ET SIC SEMPER ERIT