The Last Time Stocks Were This Calm, England Won The World Cup

Tyler Durden's picture

1966 was a big year... Miranda Rights came into being in America, Vietnam War protests raged, the US department of Transportation was created, the mini skirt was invented, Batman and Star Trek debuts, NASA launches Lunar Orbiter 1 - the first U.S. spacecraft to orbit the Moon, race riots raged in Atlanta, Ronald Reagan entered politics becoming Governor of California, and (for some) most importantly, England defeated Germany to win the 'Football' World Cup.

However, there is one more thing - 1966 was the last time that the stock market 'calmness' was as low as it is today...

To put that into context...

 

Furthermore, as New River Investments notes, "It's difficult to overstate how low S&P500 realized volatility has been and how rare it is for it to be low for so long."

This is the longest period for realized vol to be below its historical media since the '90s...

This is the longest period with volatility below 10% since the 1960s...

The reason we bring this up is simple - we have been noting the massive decoupling in the last month between stock price levels and implied risk levels...

This has been shrugged off by some with simpleton statements like "well, vol doesn't go much lower than 10" - but of course that is all relative. With realized volatility collapsing to near record lows, the risk premium for future volatility is actually notably high...

In other words - that gaping chasm between prices and risk is 'real' - which perhaps explains why professionals have never been more relatively long 'crash risk'...

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JonNadler's picture

that "phantom" goal was a lot like our phantom market

jamesmmu's picture

DOW almost green! come on

Kido's picture

new closing ATH incoming 

Fundies's picture

I'm praying for Soylent Green. 

any_mouse's picture

I'm invested in Futures on Homeless people.

They are worth more as organ donors.

Arbitrage.

Quivering Lip's picture

I'm pretty sure bank algos just scratch trades with each other all day pushing the "market" higher while selling vol to funds, institution and retail.

That and Central Banks adding $85 billion a month in QE.

medium giraffe's picture

God I hate moronball

JonNadler's picture

all moronballs or just baseball?

onthedeschutes's picture

Operation Green Close just about complete - J Yellen

Initiating Operation Vixtermination starting at 3:45PM - J Yellen

Pliskin's picture

Two World Wars and One World Cup.

 

jamesmmu's picture

the more ZH writes, the closer DOW is getting green?

ZH effect?

 

any_mouse's picture

ZH posts an article about the high costs of Gold mining.

And GDX goes up.

any_mouse's picture

So what are England's chances?

falak pema's picture

1966 : before NAm war ramp up; before Great society ramp up; before US becomes a net importer of Oil; before Nixon has to shelve the gold exchange; when corporate taxes were Yuuge as was marginal tax rate; Keynesian economics was about to die under stagflation in the UK; which started the Friedman revolution...

Thats why the S&P volatility was flat. The Brits had lost their empire and their economy and won the Beatles and Mary Quant !

pawn's picture

https://youtu.be/6am9dQWHdtc

Minii skirt invented. Excuse me, just need a pair of scissors and a hem no invention.

caesium's picture

The 1966 World Cup was the most corrupt in history. Three of the best teams (all from South America) didn't make the semis. The 1/4 final v Argentina was a farce.