Weekend Reading: Dow 24,000 By Christmas

Tyler Durden's picture

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

This past week, the Dow crested 23000 sending the networks into a “tizzy.” It took about 5-minutes of crossing that magical “round number,” before questions raised of how long before the markets cross 24,000, and 25,000.

The chart below shows the 1000-point milestones of the Dow going back to 2009. After a long break between 18,000 and 19,000 in 2015 through the election in 2016, the Dow has surged higher ticking off 4-more milestones in less than a year.

As I have shown previously, these late stage “melt-ups” are not uncommon. In fact, as shown below, it is something witnessed prior to every market peak previously. 

As I stated just recently:

“This past weekend, I discussed what appears to be the markets ongoing melt-up toward its inevitable conclusion. Of course, that move is supported by the last of the ‘holdouts’ that finally capitulate and take the plunge back into a market that ‘can seemingly never go down.’ But therein lies the danger.

 

‘However, it should be noted that despite the ‘hope’ of fiscal support for the markets, longer-term conditions are currently present that have led to rather sharp market reversions in the past. Regardless, the market is currently ignoring such realities as the belief ‘this time is different’ has become overwhelming pervasive.’”

With volatility crushed, and record short positions on the VIX, there will likely be an event at some point that leads to a massive reversal in the assessment of “risk” and an unwinding of the market.

However, such is not the case currently as even “small dips” are met with eager buyers which continues to reinforce the very dangerous lack of fear.

With more ETF’s currently available to investors than there are stocks to fill them, it is quite likely the demand ramp for ETF’s will continue to push the Dow higher into the end of the year.

Dow 24,000 by Christmas?

Don’t be surprised if it happens.

Just remember, all market melt-ups end just when things look their brightest.

Here’s your reading list to for the weekend.


Trump, Economy & Fed


Markets


Research / Interesting Reads


“A bear market returns capital to those who it rightly belongs to.Ian McAvity

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khakuda's picture

Christmas?  Try November 1st.

D.r. Funk's picture

Not gonna happen. For all the fellow permabears out there, theyre not gonna get it. Not gonna have to see 24k Nov 1.

Game is ending, The bullshit wont be able to get us to see much more. Scuse me Fake bullshit

Hank Stinkhammer's picture

The Singularity approacheth.

;)

BennyBoy's picture

 

Dow 25,000 by the 25th!

Dow 1,000 by the 1st.

Snaffew's picture

yeah...they got the fucking holiday wrong...DOW 24k by halloween...perhaps DOW goes to 24k by Oct 24th...and 30k by Oct 30th...it makes perfect sense in this farce of a 'free market".  Who the fuck are they trying to kid.  no matter how bad the news or economic reports/earnings---stocks...just..go...UP!  What in the fuck is that/  This is not America---it is Plutocracy Financials at its' finest.  Fuck this Shyster government of ours.  It is nothing more than heresy.

FreeShitter's picture

The beatings on main street will continue until the sheep improve their nominal thinking.

Snaffew's picture

I've got the lumps to prove it, but i'm still bleating.

LightBulb18's picture

I wonder if its time to bet that the dow is only going to go down one more time ever again?

kuz's picture

If they pass tax cuts, it will soar. That's for sure.

Snaffew's picture

they have pumped the S&P straight up 600 points based on the hope for trump tax cuts...wtf is left?  i would say it's priced in, but it's not.

D.r. Funk's picture

i HIGHLY contend it's deepstate doing the pumping. kinda changes the gameboard if you perceive it that way doesnt it. and..... NO obviously tax cuts are priced in lol, any logic says that pretty emphatically, most likely it's the other side still manipulating the indexes

Arnold's picture

Yeah, let's take away the mortgage interest deduction and crash the housing market like we did last time.

debtor of last resort's picture

santa says, btc 45750,- by Christmass

LawsofPhysics's picture

Why the fuck not? In fact, probably sooner! It's the MATH stupid!

Seasmoke's picture

Why so pessimistic. Could hit 24,000 by Monday. 36,666 by Hanukkah !!!!!!

Son of Captain Nemo's picture

Along with $10,000 Buttcoin....

I have to ask. Will the "mistletoe" look anything like this (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=616QbK5yAPU) before the New Year?!!!

Think I'm headin to the "beach" this Christmas with my lead based "tanning oil" to ring 'er in!!!

The Bell Rang's picture

Monday spike high top, then a reverse.......You just never know, it could happen !!

Fundies's picture

Merry Cuntmas.

GotAFriendInBen's picture

It is different this time

never before have we had synchronized global central bank support

Ink is more valuable than all the assets in the universe

izzee's picture

are you kidding.  Dow 24000 by Halloween

yogibear's picture

Yep, it's going up over 100 DOW points a day. 

Easily 24,000 by Halloween!

DOW 26,500 by Christmas or 30,000.

Ask William Dudley of the NY Federal Reserve what his bankster buddies have targeted for the indexes.

izzee's picture

as Maxine Waters and the rest of those Demo DipSheits scream Impeach Trump and Obama goes on the stump "to get out the black vote for Demo CandyDates.

the graduating class of Clown College.

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user245717/imageroot...

 

D.r. Funk's picture

Not gonna happen. Vix sub 11 streak ending will cut it, along with or alongside the next spike or geopolitical spike event. (Those controlling the indexes know it's coming, or something's coming, or something will be) Shiller pe is merely increasing, the gains are all fake, just stretching, And the 1% 3% drawdown metrics are hitting outer limits. It stands to be fucking reasoned they're trying to get ALL FUCKING REMAINING BEARS OUTTTTTTTT. Out of the fucking picture but it's not working. Some of us are holding on and wont have to hold on much longer. fucks

Anarchyteez's picture

Brother, when this worm turns I’m going to be one rich bitch!

This bear is staying put.

francis scott falseflag's picture

by Black Friday at the very least

yogibear's picture

No rate increase in December either.

Fundies's picture

Reaching critical mass.

BSHJ's picture

Yes, I was studying various company fundamentals and doing some chart analysis the other day.........

mily's picture

Look at zerohedgers capitulating, we're getting closer to top, i give it 10-12 months max

D.r. Funk's picture

this artificial leg (following hurricane irma) which weve seen happen too many times to just be an organic, or coincidental, or euphoric leg, doesnt have much more room without becoming a full blatant blowoff top itself. They know that, so theyre gonna have to see bears make some money back soon

yeah theyre piggybacking off of everything the last 2 weeks but i think theyre getting a little lucky with that. no way that an interruption in the 'trump impeachment' or 'hrc indictment' (or nkorea) narrative doesnt come up before 10-12mos.

Tolomeo's picture

I’m in for 24k by Halloween & 25K by Christmas!!!

What a farse, fuck you market this has become...

D.r. Funk's picture

Not a market. programmed indexes

Yes we still call it a stock market

No its not a market

It's a pivot between the power structure that lost and the nationalistic trends expanding

That power structure easily had general control of the indexes before november 9

Nothing changed. master guidance

JailBanksters's picture

Everytime a store closes, more people lose jobs, people buy less crap

the DOW goes up.

I beginning to think, this might be rigged.

Gorgeous's picture

"...to those who it rightly belongs to.Ian McAvity

Never passed elementary grammar, Ian?

Don Sunset's picture

The 401k working class is paying for this recovery.  Year upon year, every 2 weeks they add to their 401k, paying what ever the price is.  For years now they have seriously over paid and are funding this "recovery".  There will be a selloff in due time.  When the powers-that-be determine enough repair has been done (e.g. banks fully capitalized) there will be a huge and quick selloff and the 401k crowd will be the bagholders.  The ETF crowd may be able to flee quick enough but I'm sure many of those folks that are sleeping will get burned.  And the buy-the-dip crowd will learn a lesson or two.  The FED will let this drop way down so the same thing can repeat over time again.

How far the FED will try to let this run up is the interesting part.  Will they try and let more pension funds build?  Fundamentals haven't mattered since 2009 in the USA but the FED will not be able to ignore all things forever.

FY17 was the King of Tax and Spend and Trump owns most of that.  Can't re-elect the King of Tax and Spend.

Silver Savior's picture

I stopped funding my 401k. I don't even want the company match because it will be all worthless by the time I retire. So I am buying an equal dollar value of silver eagles to take the place of that. As for the 401k itself I am seriously considering cashing it out with penalty. Then buy gold and silver with what's left. 

Global monetary resets are not very kind to 401k accounts. Just saying. This is the last of my financials that are still on the table and it really makes me nervous. 

Let it Go's picture

Even as the market has forged its way into new territory the new highs have done little to alleviate the concerns of many investors that something is very wrong. More important than how the economy appears to the casual observer is the strength of the foundation on which it's built.

While growing debt and expanding credit have moved demand forward we should not delude ourselves into thinking it will be repaid. The article below delves into how much of this debt will slip into default exacerbating future problems.

 http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2017/07/this-cannot-be-new-normal.html

Silver Savior's picture

Has anyone considered that the market is going up because the dollar is going down or is that just too easy?

Itch's picture

Dow 26000 is looking more likely.

razorthin's picture

I still can't help but think that sitting this out - no matter how long the blow-off takes - will reward you with a 70% discount.

Silver Savior's picture

The Dow does not really excite me because the dollar has lost so much purchasing power. It's like the higher it goes the more worthless the dollar is. This is the grand illusion on steroids.