Exit Polls Project Sweeping Victory, Supermajority For Japan's Abe

Tyler Durden's picture

As widely expected, Japan Prime Minister Abe's ruling coalition is set for a sweeping victory in Sunday's general election, and may retain the two-thirds parliamentary majority needed to revise Japan's constitution, according to an NHK exit poll.

Shinzo Abe during an election campaign rally in Tokyo, on Oct. 21

Shortly after polls closed at 8pm, an NHK exit poll showed that Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party and coalition partner Komeito are set to win between 281 and 336 seats of the 465 total, boosting Abe's chances of becoming Japan's longest serving political leader: the Prime Minister needs 233 for a simple majority and 310 for a supermajority. Opposition parties are set to split the rest, with the left-leaning Constitutional Democratic Party projected to come in second. Actual results are now being counted.

NHK also projected the leftwing Constitutional Democratic party winning 44 to 67 seats, with upstart Tokyo governor Yuriko Koike’s Party of Hope taking 38 to 59 seats.

The exit polls are in line with the most recent media seat projections, shown below:

Source: Nikkei, Mainichi, Asahi, Kyodo, Goldman Sachs

The vote took place as a typhoon lashed Japan on Sunday, threatening to damp voter turnout for the election that was widely forecast to give Abe a fresh mandate to pursue economic revival and bolster the nation's military.  Super Typhoon Lan is one of the strongest to hit Japan in years with heavy rain expected across much of the country. The Japan Meteorological Agency issued severe weather warnings for floods, wind damage and landslides. The typhoon is projected to make landfall near Tokyo on Sunday night.

A substantial win for Abe’s coalition would pave the way for more ultra-easy monetary policy and flexible fiscal stimulus that has allowed Japan - Asia’s second-biggest economy - to grow for 6 straight quarters, if only on paper. It would also give President Trump a stable partner in pushing a hardline stance against Kim Jong Un’s regime in North Korea. The LDP is due to hold a leadership election next September. If Abe runs and wins again, he could stay on as prime minister until 2021, according to Bloomberg.

Ever the opportunist, Abe called today's election last month more than a year before parliament’s term expired, saying he wanted to test public opinion on a proposal to divert some revenue from a planned sales-tax hike to fund education and delay moves to rein in Japan’s swollen public debt. But the timing was really mostly influenced by a recent North-Korea driven uptick in his approval rating after a series of cronyism and corruption scandals hurt his popularity earlier in the year, sending his approval rating to a record low as recently as the summer.

As the FT notes, Japan’s election has been dominated by chaos among the opposition, which also helped Abe: the Constitutional Democratic Party was set up only about two weeks ago by former Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano after its predecessor split up. Other opposition lawmakers defected to populist Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike’s upstart Party of Hope, which briefly jumped in opinion polls before fading. In his final election appearance on Saturday, Abe attacked the opposition for its time in government from 2009-12. “Just because they’ve changed their name, they can’t change that three years and three months. You can’t fool the public,” he said.

“It’s a very tough result,” Koike was quoted by Bloomberg immediately after the exit poll was released in a televised interview from Paris, where she is attending a conference on climate change. “We have to analyze the reasons properly, but I am sorry that I caused unpleasant feelings through my words and actions.”

In a sign of how little hope opposition parties had of defeating Abe, Koike left the country on Saturday night to attend a mayoral meeting in Paris on climate change. Even after the Democratic party had disbanded to support her, Ms Koike declined to run, leaving the opposition without a credible candidate for prime minister.

Meanwhile, almost five years into the job, Abe touted his economic record, with unemployment at less than 3 percent and the stock market at its highest level in more than two decades, both of which are largely and exclusively a function of the BOJ monetizing every piece of debt, not to mention ETF, if can find. The massive monetary easing has weakened the yen and bolstered exports while having less success at defeating deflation and boosting pay.

Abe also portrayed his party as best placed to defend Japan against the growing threat from North Korea’s missiles and nuclear bombs. His party is considering a proposal to allow Japan to have an offensive capability for the first time since World War II.

Set to become the latest Asian nation to turn to militarism, a two-thirds majority would make it easier for him to revise Japan’s pacifist constitution, a move he sees as necessary to strengthen the military. Any change would also need to pass a public referendum, and recent polls show the public divided over the issue. The ruling coalition currently controls 68% of seats in the lower house, including 288 for the LDP and 35 for its coalition partner Komeito, according to the parliamentary website.

What happens next?

According to Goldman analyst Naohiko Baba, "a big single-party majority for the LDP would afford the Abe administration stability, leaving the economic policy framework almost intact"

Baba adds that his biggest focus is whether the LDP can secure a majority on its own. If the ruling parties attain a majority but the LDP is unable to secure a single-party majority, Prime Minister Abe could come under pressure from within his party to step down in order to take responsibility, even if the LDP/Komeito coalition continued. How the election battle will unfold is anybody’s guess. However, based on exit polls, it appears the LDP is highly likely to secure far more than a majority of votes on its own.

Such a result would enhance Prime Minister Abe’s status within the LDP, highly likely enabling him to be reelected for a third term in the LDP presidential election in September 2018 and to maintain the reins of government for longer. It would also sharply reduce uncertainty surrounding economic policy as a whole since Prime Minister Abe is able to appoint the next BOJ Governor by himself when current Governor Kuroda's term ends in April 2018.

With the election now concluded, the calendar below lists all the main political and economic events in Japan over the next four years.

Finally, here is a breakdown of the key party manifestos of Japan's three main political parties: the LDP, the Party of Hope and the CDP:

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Swamp Yankee's picture

Because good is bad and bad is good.


This makes no sense, I must need moar beer.

Escrava Isaura's picture

I guess no red necks running Japan for awhile.


Swamp Yankee's picture

"Japanese Red Necks" I'd pay serious money to watch that  :)

tmosley's picture

One can only hope that the buildup of the Japanese military leads to the withdrawal of the US military from the area. Let Guam be our forward operating base, and remove 95% of military men and material to Honolulu.

Handful of Dust's picture

Czech Patriot wins by landslide!


“We want to stop any Islamisation of the Czech Republic, we push for zero tolerance of migration,” Okamura told reporters after his party won just under 10.7 percent of the vote, almost neck-and-neck with two other parties who were runners-up to Babis’s ANO party.

“The European Union can’t be reformed. It only dictates to us. We refuse the multicultural European superstate. Let’s leave the EU,” Okamura said at a party leaders’ debate just before polls opened on Friday.


Rapunzal's picture

Just another voting fraud, don't think too much of it. Abe got additional help from North Koreas fire works over Japan, nicely placed pre election. Now Japan go on a shopping spree and fill the Koffers of our MIC.

Handful of Dust's picture

No doubt Putin is behind his victory, colluding with the japs like he did in the USA elections.



IH8OBAMA's picture

Nobody wants to change leadership with nuclear armagedden from NK staring them in the face.


ebworthen's picture

Abe is the Hillary Clinton of Japan, the land of the setting sun.

Not enough young people or babies being born, so the old folks vote for BOJ and Ctrl+P so they can die in delusional peace.

Escrava Isaura's picture

tmosley: One can only hope that the buildup of the Japanese military leads to the withdrawal of the US military 

Ohh boy!

Haven’t you learn anything from ‘empire’ history?

US is not leaving Asia. The contrary is what will happen.



tmosley's picture

But you are a stupid communist. Your reading of history and reality is always going to be much more flawed than that of an average person.

Even moreso because you live in a giant toilet pretending to be a nation state.

BlindMonkey's picture

The US will quit Asia, MENA, A-Stan and E. Europe.  It is only a question of 'when'.

AGuy's picture

"The US will quit Asia, MENA, A-Stan and E. Europe. "

Only after WW3. If anything the USA will continue its Military expansion everywhere. To date, the only country the US removed its troops from is Vietnam.

The US will never leave MENA until the oil is all gone, WW3 or if the USA ceases to exist. Odds are that if the USA collapses it will go out with a bang (WW3) not a whimper.

tmosley's picture

>To date, the only country the US removed its troops from is Vietnam.

To date, the US has only voted for one president outside the MIC since the MIC took control of the US post WWII.

And there will be no WWIII. Nukes stop wars, period. Proxy wars are the worst case scenario so long as there are other nuclear powers willing to protect non-US aligned nations from nuclear strikes.

OverTheHedge's picture

The BBC are very excited about the chance of changing the Constitution to allow Japan to have military again,

It struck me that this might be what the entire North Korea thing has been about: allow Japan to purchase some sensible military hardware, because they deserve it.

. . . _ _ _ . . .'s picture

Yeah, now that Japanese troops can go on the offensive, let's see where they get deployed first: Middle-east; NATO; African peacekeepers; ...dare I say it... Guam!?!

Escrava Isaura's picture

China ‘Eurasia’ is the only and final destination before the collapse.




small axe's picture

they need to kick American occupation troops out of Okinawa first

Never One Roach's picture

"Japan is entitled to a common sense solution of buying $100 Billion more military gear from Boeing, Raytheon, etc..."


~ neocons

OverTheHedge's picture

There is only so much a civilian "defence force" can justify buying. And how do you expend all that ammunition, if you don't have any countries to liberate? Japan needs a proper grown up army, to protect itself from the unbelievable danger of North Korea, and the obvious menace of China. Shall we say 500 F35s, 5 carrier groups, a tank division or two, and Marine Amphibious landing craft to retake the Kuriles, which Russia stole all those years ago.

Japan is good for it - what could possibly go wrong? We might even get a reason to go to war with Russia, so big bonuses all round at the MIC

BlindMonkey's picture

Let's just hope the next premier indigenous Japanese stealth fighter is called "Zero".

IronForge's picture

Relative to JPN, BRA is..?


STFU, Monkey.

serotonindumptruck's picture

"...and the beer I had for breakfast wasn't bad,

so I had one more for dessert."


MFL5591's picture

.Keep the money printing farce going (soon debt to hit 200% of GDP) and the stock prices higher till the day of reckoning arrives,  Damn fools!

Maximeme Q's picture

What's it called when someone (or a population) tries the same thing over and over again expecting a different result each time?

. . . _ _ _ . . .'s picture

It's called Anthony Robbins psycho-babble.
There are no variables in his example. In life, there are variables, which means that every time you try something, it turns out a little differently, so if you keep trying something, eventually you might succeed.
How does that saying go, "On a long enough time..."?

TPTB want a certain result, and they keep trying to implement it in slightly differing ways. Eventually, something sticks.

Paul Kersey's picture

Perhaps this will help you make sense of it. A friend of mine, who is one of the very few American citizens, who lives in Japan and works as a corporate attorney for a large Japanese firm, just came to the U.S. to visit me. He explained why the Japanese are happy with their government.

There is no illiteracy in Japan. Everybody has good, lower cost medical care. Public transportation is so good, that few people really need to own a car to get to work. Japan's people have the highest longevity rate. Although Japan's debt ratio is off the chart, it's all in house. The BOJ has been monetizing the debt since 1990, and what it can monetize, it can retire. The unemployment rate in Japan is barely above 2%, and, with such a large elderly population, there are labor shortages. The crime rate is very low, and the incarcerate rate is very low. Japan is nothing like the U.S., and the Japanese people are not unhappy with the status quo.

NoWayJose's picture

How can they do this with a constant flood of uneducated and lazy immigrants coming in..... oh, wait....

ZD1's picture

No need to worry since their debt all in house? They can create trillions of Yen out of thin air without consequences? Maybe we should all buy the magic Yen! 

tmosley's picture

Except for the young people who live in coffins and kill themselves before they reproduce (if there was EVER a chance of that).

But then, the vast majority of people can't see the very simple and straightforward link between central bank activity and increasing poverty among young people. The central bank reallocates purchasing power from productive capital, the source of wages (where wages are the source of young people's livelihoods) into assets, including real estate (which young people must be able to afford in order to start a family). This benefits the old and the rich, who already own assets, but causes a slow liquidation of those assets to meet expenses. By the time the young people in Japan become old, the government will own EVERYTHING, and prices for all non-subsidized assets will be infinite (assuming nothing changes, which it will have to).

Luckily, we are on the verge of the technological singularity, and the Japanese are a very forward thinking people when it comes to the use of robots. 

Paul Kersey's picture

Good post, Mosley. No wage growth in Japan:

"Millennials in Japan have little interest in the job-hopping ways of their overseas counterparts, seeking stability and security instead. That is striking at the heart of the Bank of Japan’s efforts to jolt the economy to life.

By some measures, young Japanese today face the best job market in a generation, with unemployment at a two-decade low of 2.8 percent. Offers of coveted permanent positions are on the rise. Yet last year only 6.9 percent of those aged 25 to 34 switched jobs.

That’s a problem for the BOJ as it tries to stoke inflation and growth with its unprecedented monetary stimulus. After four years, the central bank is still waiting for the wage increases it says will fuel higher prices. Low worker mobility and a "strong preference for job security" are two of the biggest obstacles to that happening in Japan, the International Monetary Fund said this week."


Ajax-1's picture

I thought Asians were supposed to be smart.

Never One Roach's picture

When the first missile from anyone hits anything of importance [instead of falling into the ocean], oil may skyrocket back to $100 some predict.

The MIC, Bankers and Big Oil have alot to gain from moar wars.

mtanimal's picture

Quite the Orwellian photo. Or is it from Pink Floyd's The Wall?


Arnold's picture


max2205's picture

Japan China EU USA own 65% of markets.  They will never sell. 

Everyone will fight for less stock available for years to come.  Wonder why IPO'S open up 40%?

bitplayer's picture

They're at a Spinal Tap concert. "Sex Farm" is still on the charts over there.

Kenny Drebson's picture

it looks like they're summoning the dragonzord.

Racer's picture

so NIK to the moon on more buying by the Japanese central bwanksters


What hasn't worked for the CONomy is okay to keep on going and doing same old same old.

Stockholm symdrome....

Greed is King's picture

Ain`t it amazing, all the "populist" Politicians are being defeated in elections around the globe, while the unpopular Politicians are holding onto power. Only 2 possible logical reasons to be drawn, 1, the people of France, Germany, Japan etc are stupid and or masochistic, or 2, the unpopular Politicians did`nt win via a fair ballot box.

AlexCharting's picture

Japan.... the democratic country with a one-party system

lucitanian's picture

And an oposition that supports it.

Swamp Yankee's picture

 Mmmm beer #2, feeling better already.

Dank fur Kopf's picture

Abe declared victory 5hrs before the polls opened.

The fix was in ;D

Davidduke2000's picture

The japanese people remind me the man that everyday makes his own sandwiches for lunch and every single day when he open he lunch box has a fit because all the sandwiches are BALONEY.

They vote for the loser then curse the day he was born, it even gets worse, they worship the americans who destroyed 2 of their largest cities and annihilated their populations until today japanese are born misfits .

I say, they deserve what they get. 

mtanimal's picture

Lol. What a socialist utopia. "Free" education at 3 (why not take them right from the womb?), "social security for all generations", and my favorite "forceful monetary easing"... forceful easing... forcing easily...

anonymike's picture

The globalists wish everyone would strive to be conforming sheeple like Japanese voters.

Losing so many of them will be the only fleeting regret of the globalists after so many of them perish in a false flag initiated Korean War II, needed by the financial elite as a diversion from the catastrophic finale of the ongoing GFC