IceCap Asset Management: "We Are About To Witness The Financial Market Movement Of A Lifetime"

Tyler Durden's picture

IceCap Asset Management's Monthly outlook on global investment markets: October 2017, submitted by Keith Decker of IceCap Asset Management

“Should I Stay or Should I Go?”

Darlin’ you got to let me know

During the 1970s, The Clash pushed rock and roll to the edge. Their hard charging, explosive, and anger-filled style, inspired spiked hair, rocked generations and forced people to question conventional thinking.

Along the way, they rocked the casbah. They called London. They got lost in a super market and then they went straight to hell.

For many – The Clash was the only band that mattered.

For investors, they are more – much more.

Today, as investors around the world become increasingly anxious, one of the greatest Clash songs of all time is making a comeback. In board rooms, on trade desks, in living rooms and around kitchen tables – investors everywhere are nervously singing “Should I Stay or Should I go.” Stock market investors are nervous. Housing market investors are nervous. Gold and oil investors are nervous. US Dollar and Euro investors are nervous too.

After all, avoiding near-certain losses should be the most important goal for every investor.

Yet, the confusion today is that practically every talking and writing head has declared everything to be at extreme risk levels. In reality, everything cannot decline at once – money and capital just doesn’t move that way.

Yet, as chaos continues to engulf our world, traditional investment metrics seemingly make less and less sense.

And once you understand this all important fact – then and only then, will you be able to ignore the hyperbole, tune out the 24-7 talking heads, and dismiss the irrelevant quarterly commentaries from the big bank mutual funds.

For investors, these are exciting times. Markets are on the cusp of some of the most dramatic movements we’ve (n)ever seen.

In this latest IceCap Global Outlook, we examine where and why you should be nervous, what to do, and along the way – sing and enjoy the show.

The Stock Market

What can we say – there’s an awful lot of people out there saying an awful lot of awful things about the stock market. The central theme or reason for these negative views is entirely based upon stock market valuation. This view is of course wrong. And to understand why, first you must understand the background supporting these awful claims. For starters, many who proclaim stock investors are living on the edge, have actually been living on the edge themselves.

Many of these bearish investors have shockingly been out of the stock market since the 2008 crash, with others selling out just a few years later. Investors must know that despite the marketing machines, the Hollywood movies, and the internets – many investment managers are simple humans; full of emotion, full of pride, and perhaps worst of all – more stubborn than a goat.

Yes, many managers today are not insensitive, objective androids possessing the gift, the ability, the process and the flexibility to change their investment mind.

Instead – investment managers can be slotted into 3 groups:

Group 1 – this manager works for a mega-big investment firm, that is typically a part of an even bigger firm – a bank. These firms are devoid of dynamic thinking. All peripheral visions have been checked at the door. Client money comes in through the same door and then it is always invested the same way, with no consideration of any significant and obvious events on the horizon.

These managers have no market view, and if for some strange reason they possessed a market view, the compliance and enterprise risk management departments would sniff it out and exterminate it faster than a speeding macchiato. These firms did not see the tech bubble breaking until it was too late. These same firms did not see the housing bubble breaking until it was too late.

And, today these same firms continue to whistle, Disney-themed tunes as the world passes them bye.

Group 2 – these managers were burnt badly by the last crisis and therefore continue to fight the last war. In many ways - these managers are to be commended. They understand risk. They understand how the loss of capital can be devastating for their clients.

These managers have really nice intentions. Yet their deepest concerns about another stock market crash has kept them out of stocks during one of the largest rallies in stock market history.

These managers are so geared towards another market crash that they epitomize confirmation bias. Every single waking hour, day and week – which have turned into months and now years are spent agonizing over how markets are not correctly priced.

The confirmation bias first begins with showing how stocks are more expensive today than they were immediately before the 2008 crash and immediately before the 2000 crash.

And since stocks are more expensive today than compared to immediately before the 2000 and 2008 bubbles, then stocks must therefore be on the verge of crashing yet again.

But they haven’t. Another commonly trolled chart shows the VIX or market fear index:

And since this data point shows current markets are also at the exact same level as they were prior to the 2000 and 2008 bubbles, then stocks therefore must also be on the verge of cracking again.

But they haven’t.

Next, the stock bears whip out charts showing the deterioration in Consumer Credit, the effect of Stock Buy Backs on Earnings per Share, record high profit margins, lower trending GDP, Donald Trump, Brexit, Marine Le Penn, North Korea, Russia, and the beat goes on.

Yet, stocks continue to defy gravity.

Then there’s the money printing, zero interest rates, negative interest rates, financial oppression, and the socialized bad debt.

And yet, stock markets just won’t go down. In fact, not only will stocks not go down, but they continue to go up.

Yes – it’s confusing. But it’s only confusing for those using linear thinking, one-dimensional perspectives, and the refusal to consider that maybe there’s something else a foot. Here at IceCap, we completely agree with this negative assessment of all the above factors.

Yes, on a stand alone and consolidated basis, a stock market specific focus concludes nothing good is about to happen. Yet – this is the very point that is completely missed by managers in Group 2. They absolutely refuse to even consider for a moment that their analysis of risk is correct BUT maybe the risk will not be reflected in the stock market.

Throughout all of these negative reports and analysis, one major point is missing – the consideration that all of the risk in the world today certainly does exist, yet this risk lies within a market completely different than the stock market.

And since, none of these managers in Group 2 believe a major risk can ever occur outside of the stock market – then it is completely missed and dismissed.

Whereas the managers in Group 2 are singularly focused on the stock market, other managers have assessed the exact same global macro dynamics but came to a different conclusion as to where the risk really lies.

Which naturally brings us to investment managers in Group 3.

Group 3 – in many ways, these managers are similar to those in Group 2. They also have terrific intentions, possess a laser-like attention to avoiding capital losses, and a strongly held belief that markets can be pushed and pulled into extreme positions.

Yet, the difference between the two groups lies in the ability to remain asset class agnostic. Whereas the managers in Group 2 are solely focused on the stock market as being the center of all evil.

Managers in Group 3 believe that at different times, any market can be either good or evil. What we mean by this, is that these managers in Group 3 never fall in or out of love with any investment market. Just as there are times to embrace and avoid stocks, the same is true for bonds, gold, currencies and different commodities. When market conditions change, so too will the investment view of these managers. But the key point to understanding this seemingly obvious expectation – and is completely missed by those managers in Group 2; all markets are interconnected.

In other words, stock markets cannot move in isolation without impacting other markets. And of the utmost importance – other markets cannot move in isolation without impacting the stock market.

And, perhaps the single, biggest revelation of all and commonly missed by many – the financial world does not revolve around the stock market.

Yes, the global stock market is big. But it is dwarfed by bond markets, interest rate markets and currency markets. Walk onto the trading floor of any major bank and you’ll see that over 75% of the floor is dedicated to bond, interest rate & currency trading.

The remaining sliver is for the stock market.

Believing the stock market is the king of the hill, is akin to believing the tail wags the dog. Understanding this all important point, will help you see the why the conclusion of the managers in Group 2 has been wrong. Whether they realise it or not, all of their analysis has assumed that everything is fine in the bond, interest rate and currency world.

The reason for this is quite obvious. For many, the stumbling block today is the fact that during the past 35 years – every market crisis has eventually manifested itself in the stock market. And since few in the industry today have worked beyond the last 35 years, then they inherently believe that every crisis is eventually reflected in the stock market.

Here at IceCap, we clearly see that today’s global financial world contains risk unlike anything we’ve seen before in our lifetime. After all, 35 years of accumulated effects of central bank policies, bailouts, fiscal deficits, and excessive borrowings have culminated in today’s rather awkward financial position. Yet, the culmination of these awkward moments, lies in the fact that central banks and their craft have finally hit rock bottom. And in the confusing world of bonds, interest rates, debt and currencies – hitting rock bottom is really the opposite of what you’d expect.

It is bad.

The reason it is bad, is because when interest rates are falling – the bond market zooms higher and higher.

Reality is also true. When interest rates begin to zoom higher – the bond market drops like a stone. And because this stone is multiple times bigger than the stock market, the ripples turn into waves that will gush investors out of the bond market seeking safety. And contrary to every manager in Group 2 – this safety zone will be the USD, gold and yes, the stock market.

So, to answer the classic question from The Clash about the stock market – absolutely stay. The ride will be a bit rough, but it will be nothing compared to what is about to happen in the bond market.

The Bond Market: It’s coming.

And when it hits, it is going to be a doozy. The global bond market is on the verge of doing something never before seen in our lifetime. Of course, the trick to seeing and understanding this certain risk is simply acknowledging the length of your current investment experience. Just because something hasn’t occurred over the last 35 years, doesn’t mean it can never happen.

The near-complete lack of acceptance of a bond bubble is partly due in course to the fact that over the past 35 years, the investing world has only ever seen crises in the stock market. To understand why investors see it this way, see Chart 1 below.

The chart shows the history of long-term interest rates in the United States from 1962 to 2017. Note how from 1962 to 1982, long-term interest rates increased from 3% all the way up to 16%. During this 20 year period of rising long-term rates, financial markets were a disaster. No one made money. Stock investors lost money. And bond investors lost a lot of money.

If I go, there will be trouble

Life was so bad – especially for bond investors, that by the time 1982 rolled around you couldn’t give a bond away. If you were an investor or working in the investment industry at the time – you were painfully aware of the bond market and you were schooled to never, ever buy a bond again.

Of course, 1982 was actually the best time ever to buy a bond. With long-term rates dropping like a stone over the next 35 years, bond investors and bond managers became known as the smartest people in the room. But, that was then and this is now. There are 2 points to remember forever here:

1) What goes down, must come up

2) There’s no one around today to remind us of what life was like for bond investors when long-term rates marched relentlessly higher

Interest rates are secular. And with interest rates today already hitting the theoretical 0% level – they have started to rise. And when long-term rates begin to rise, (unlike short-term rates) it happens in a snapping, violent manner. Neither of which is good for bond investors.

Of course, there’s another important point to consider, the rise in long-rates from 1962 to 1982 occurred when there wasn’t a debt crisis in the developed world.

And since 99% of the industry has only worked since 1982 to today, then 99% of the industry has never experienced, lived or even dreamt of a crisis in the bond market.

This of course is the primary reason why all the negative stories about the stock market are alive and well played out in the media – they simply don’t know any better.

And this is wrong. Very wrong. After all, the bond bubble dwarfs the tech bubble and the housing bubble. Think about it.

 

And if I stay it will be double

To grasp why the bond market is on the verge of crisis, and why trillions of Dollars, Euros, Yen and Pounds are about to panic and run away, we ask you to understand how free-markets really work.

For starters, all free markets have two sides competing and participating.

There are natural buyers and there are natural sellers. The point at which they meet in the middle is the selling/purchase price and the entire process is called price discovery.

Price discovery is a wonderful thing. It always results in the determination of a true price for a product or service. However, a big problem arises when there is an imbalance between the buyers and sellers, and when one of the sides isn’t a natural buyer or seller.

This is what has happened in the bond market. And this is why bond prices (or yields) have become so distorted; the true price of a bond hasn’t existed now for almost 9 years. When the 2008-09 housing crisis crippled the world, central banks decided they would help the world recover by providing stimulus.

The stimulus to be provided was in the form of Quantitative Easing, or money printing.

What happened next has long been forgotten by the majority of the market, and is the prime reason why so few today understand and appreciate the magnitude of the stress that has been created in the bond market.

When the central banks printed money, they actually used this printed money to buy government bonds.

And with central banks suddenly becoming “buyers” of government bonds, the number of “buyers” in the bond market had instantly increased.

And with the number of buyers increasing, the price of bonds increased – which caused long-term interest rates to come down. [note that in the bond world, when prices go up, interest rates go down, and vice-versa].

In effect, the global adoption of Quantitative Easing/Money Printing meant the entire price discovery process would become suspended.

And with a suspended price discovery process, the real or true price for bonds, has not been seen for 9 years. The big point here, and it’s especially big in Europe – the elimination of the price discovery process has resulted in all countries paying lower rates of interest when they borrow.

So come on and let me know

Which, to the average person may seem good. After all, paying lower rates of interest has to be a good thing.

But it isn’t.

Instead, the manipulation of the global yield curve has created an interest rate environment that has become so stretched, shredded and tattered – that even the slightest hint of an end to this financial nirvana is enough to send investors off the deep end.

Case in point - over the last year, we’ve seen the most significant market reaction in the history of the bond world, not once but twice. Yet, the talking heads, the big banks and their mutual fund commentaries, and the stock market focused world have completely missed it.

Almost a year ago in November immediately after the American Election, over a span of 54 hours – the bond market blew up.

To put things into perspective, Chart 2 shows what happened during those fateful days. Ignoring the why’s, the how’s and the who’s – the fact remains that this tiny, miniscule increase in long-term interest rates caused the bond market to vomit over itself.

Yes, a +0.7% increase in the US 10-Year Treasury market yield created chaos, havoc and over $1.7 Trillion in losses around the world.

We’ve spoken before how we had meetings the day after with the world’s largest bond manager and they described the previous few days as registering an 8 out of 10 on the holy smokes scale. Let that sink in.

This +0.7% increase in long-term rates caused this bond behemoth to go down for an 8-count. Folks – this is not reassuring.

* * *

Much more in the full presentation below:

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hotrod's picture

Price discovery mechanisms have been SUSPENDED.  GET IN THIS MARKET NOW!  YUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUGE UPSIDE,  YOU WILL BE RICH.

Call your family, friends, coworkers get all the money off the side lines this is a ONCE IN A LIFETIME EVENT.

 

hotrod's picture

Cant, too broke from holding gold.

NoDebt's picture

I'm just glad I spent the whole day at a dragstrip today (Atco Dragway in NJ).  I didn't worry about this crap even a little bit.  I just needed to get an old Chevelle into the 9s.  And did, FINALLY, after almost TWO YEARS of that car kicking my ass.  Could be the best day I've had in months.  

Next weekend I'm going fishing.  And I'm not going to worry about the stock market then either.

 

rccalhoun's picture

hey, no debt....book one of those long fishing trips out of san diego.  trip of a lifetime.  have to do it once. 

NoDebt's picture

I'm on the east coast.  SD is a bit far from me, but I hear it's awesome.  Maybe someday I will.

I head out of OC, MD or Indian River Inlet in southern DE.  Sometimes out of Virginia Beach when I'm down to visit my brother but we usually do that the week between Christmas and New Years together.  It's Striper season (AKA Striped Bass, AKA Channel Bass).... gonna get me some of that.  I thought Flounder was the best fish I ever tasted until I tasted Striper.  And you can catch a 30 lb. Striper.  Good luck hooking up on a 30 lb. Founder!

Dammit.  How am I gonna get up at 5:30 tomorrow and go to work when I got nothing but this shit on my mind?  I love the fall around these parts.  It's when all the good stuff happens.  

Four chan's picture

my gold stacks dont even look nervous nor do my silver.

Scuba Steve's picture

Good, because the paper market is yawning and going back to bed tonight I see ...

Nuclear bomber planes now on 24hr alert, meh, not a concern ... 

HRH Feant2's picture

Silver is holding steady at $16.99 and gold is back down to $1276.00, too.

Time to buy more cheap insurance!

BadSpybot's picture

The real winners are the dealers. Silver spot currently 16.92, dealer cost for Silver Eagle coin $20.48. Maybe I should work that old abandoned mine I stumbled upon up in norther Idaho one summer, or save all the work and be a dealer.

IH8OBAMA's picture

BTFD.  Last chance.  Watch CB tapering statements, HY bond yields and industrial commodity prices for clues to exit.

Squid-puppets a-go-go's picture

so let me get this straight,

Im up to my eyeballs in debt i incurred to get into the stock market & housing

so when the bond market goes and interest rates go back to or above historical levels .... i need to stay in that already barely serviceable debt?

HRH Feant2's picture

Hehehehe. Not their problem when you go tits up.

DeadFred's picture

Book the one that has the three hour tour...

IH8OBAMA's picture

Book the one that has the three hour tour...

Called The Skipper and Gilligan's Tours

MrSteve's picture

The one with Ginger on board?

DownWithYogaPants's picture

Anybody who had the patience to read all that long winded overly wordy piece feel free to summarize for me!

I couldn't take it.  Way way WAY too long for not to say much.

NoDebt's picture

Oh, I'd be happy to short-cut it for you:

1.  Shit's all fucked up.  You know it, I know it, everyone knows it.

2.  We're about 8 exits past "way too late" to fix it in some non-explosive manner.

3.  Stopping now would just make it expode immediately.

4.  Not stopping now will guarantee it will explode much more catastrophically later.

5.  Since it's going to explode either way, the only rational course of action is to choose the "explode later" option.

6.  Nobody knows how much longer this can go on before it explodes so you might as well enjoy it while it lasts because when it expolodes it will be the "widowmaker".  And everyone knows it.

 

DownWithYogaPants's picture

fuuuuuuck I thought he would have the courtesy of putting something useful or didn't know in all that! 

The title says "financial Movement of a lifetime" .........and he never said what that would be?

Or was he referring to his BM of an article?

mkkby's picture

Actually, he's saying the bond market is the ticking time bomb. Folks will sell and pile the cash raised into stocks, so BTFD.

Wrong. When bonds sell off money supply decreases as leverage is unwound. Collateral becomes in short supply. Stocks will get hammered too. Gold may be bid, because it's needed as collateral.

These guys learned nothing from 2008. When bonds go down it exposes the massive hypothecation built on top of those bonds.

jerry_theking_lawler's picture

Whisper sweet nothings in my ear....

This is the devil we all speak of....the bond market is the key. How long can rates continue to fall or stay suppressed will decide the future.

Mike in GA's picture

LOL!!!  That is it, accurate and in a nutshell, for anyone to comprehend! 

Congrats on the old Chevelle.  That's a real accomplishment.

Think for yourself's picture

Quote-worthy for the ages...

AIs of the future, take heed, and listen.

 

alphawolf's picture

Simple, Bond market in a bubble. Stop worrying about the Stock Market. It's nothing in size compared to the Bond Market. SHORT LT BONDS. 

SheHunter's picture

Futures look flat.  Tomorrow might be a good day to try and train a little more sense into the 4 year old draft X - my equiv to your dragstrip.  And throw a few middle digits toward this bloated market.

SeuMadruga's picture

I too prefer stockcars !  ;-)

Maximeme Q's picture

The street banana vendors and shoeshine boyz too?

BeanusCountus's picture

Didnt read it. So is it up or down?

SurlysonofaBitch's picture

Many interesting points, but I don't buy the idea that money will rush into the stock market when the bond market begins to crumble. To begin with, money in the bond market - especially at these yields - is hyper-conservative money. Spooked by a collapsing bond market, those invester aren't moving to bonds. Secondly, when bond yields being to rise, money markets will begin paying interest again. It is easy to forget that money market mutual funds used to have a yield. In the late 80s, there were even money market mutual funds that charged a front end load! 

When the bond market crashes, the stock market (and housing market) will follow. Gold and other commodeties will go through the roof while most invester will simply go to cash.

Oldwood's picture

The money goes somewhere. Every bubble pops chasing money to the next, and the destruction's wake provides more excuse to debase the currency.

jcaz's picture

Bond market dictates the stock market- when bonds sell off, so do stocks- cash becomes king.

BadSpybot's picture

I was just starting out on my financial adventures in the 80's and I remember there were people I knew actually living off the high money market yields.  Bond futures were in the 70's I think. LOL

PlayMoney's picture

There is a 4th group. The buy everything in sight because central banks print shit tons of money group.

Mongoose's picture

Damn it, Man. It's Shitload! The word is shitload. There is not, and never was, an exact quantitative unit included in the word (or, in your case, phrase)

Must be a genX or millenial thing...

Back to killin' snakes

 

Quivering Lip's picture

Sorry but 5 trillion wasn't lost in the dot.CON bubble. 15 trillion wasn't lost during the housing bubble and 40 trillion won't be lost during the CB bubble. It will just be transferred.

Centralized CONfiscation and Consolidation through Counterfeiting.

hvl626's picture

 But people do not want to hear that the Federal Reserve might be stealing, or embezzling, money.  Ref. https://www.scribd.com/document355085824

FISCAL BLISS


Deplorable's picture

As Capt Picard would say...Make It So....

D.r. Funk's picture

Dude any local or regional 'SMALL PLAYER" money manager knows capital shouldnt be exposed right now. You guys know. You status quo look the other way fuckers know.

But you can't say it

You can't say it you fucks because then. Everyone. pulls out capital at the same time. You fuckin whore so-called businessmen in the community

But you know laughloud

No reasonable argument whatsoever anyone should have substantial EQUITIES OR INDEX FUNDS. especially your clients

eccitante's picture

I cringe when I read any analysis that assumes free markets exist or will be making a return anytime soon...Free markets do not exist any longer...any analysis around such a thing is inherently flawed...Boom-Bubble-Malinvestment Monetization-BustpaperoverBailout-Reinflate is all that exists...You must understand what the lack of free markets creates & that is where analysis needs to be focused...sadly, geopolitics & the Kleptocrats that inhabit the upper atmosphere of the global economy must be a major part of any analysis....I agree this is the most overvalued market in history by many measures...I also agree that this bubble will make the late 1990s & 1920s look minor by comparison...eventually, farther off than most expect, the blowup will be even worse than those prior busts, but it's going to take far longer than most expect, in my view....btw, I remember the crash of 1987 quite vividly, and the conditions are far different today with respect to the intermarket forces that precipitated that event...

D.r. Funk's picture

rise applause rise applause

Some of us said this was the outcome, 6 years ago, however [either take wave 3 down now or 2x 3x later]

Inclusion of tptb, irrefutable [they dont know they created systemic overload? they're like whoa? Bernanke just aghast? draghi confounded?]

theyre not stupid therefore...

ebworthen's picture

So glad I cashed out in 2009 and not put anything back in to the Ponzi.

Fool me once, shame on you.  Fool me twice, shame on me.

You're better off being poor vs. on this hamster wheel.

evokanivo's picture

if i was smart/prescient (or dumb) enough to put it all in the casino in march 2009, or bitcoin, i would have much more personal freedom to do whatever the hell i want. being poor is to be on the hamster wheel. like you, i missed out, but i'm not going to pretend that i'm better off as a result.

Lost in translation's picture

+ 2

Caution has cost me A LOT of money in the form of lost opportunity.

OTOH, I’m sleeping better these days.

wintraiz's picture

“Should I Stay or Should I Go?”  

 

BYE BYE

Turin Turambar's picture
"We Are About To Witness The Financial Market Movement Of A Lifetime"

 

 

WTH do you call the last 8-9 years?!!!!!!