Here It Comes: The Longest Streak Ever Without A 3% Correction In US History

Tyler Durden's picture

Via LPLResearch.com,

2017 continues to break records, as the S&P 500 Index makes new highs amid historically low volatility:

  • The index has now gone 33 consecutive sessions without a 0.5% daily decline, which is the longest streak since 1995.
  • The index’s average daily change on an absolute basis so far this year has been only 0.30%, the smallest since 1965.
  • The index has closed lower 1% or more only four times—the fewest for a full year since 1964.

Per Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist,

“I feel like a broken record, but so many times when I’m talking about 2017, I usually say ‘the last time since 1964, 1965, or 1995 when making comparisons to 2017. Those three years are widely considered the least volatile years ever, and 2017 is right there with them trying to make the medal stand.”

One other amazing streak may take place at Monday’s close: The S&P 500, should it return at least -2.99%, will officially have gone 242 trading days (about 11.5 months) without a 3% correction, topping the record of 241 days set in 1995.

If we jinx it and the S&P 500 falls 3%, we apologize... but the last time the S&P 500 closed down more than 3% the day after making a new all-time high was in November 1991, and the index has made 474 new highs since then without a 3% drop the following day.

What can we say about 2017 that hasn’t already been said? What we’ve seen so far this year is like nothing we’ve seen for decades. Just remember that markets aren’t always this calm; and a perfectly normal correction of 3–5% could happen at any time, if for no other reason than it has been more than 11 months since the last 3% correction. Overall, the global economy continues to hum along thanks in part to strong earnings, and we aren’t seeing the excesses usually seen at previous peaks, which supports higher equity prices in 2018 and suggests that the odds of a recession are low. However, as the economic cycle continues to age, we expect volatility to get up off the mat and make a comeback.

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FreeShitter's picture

Well G.E today sure is having more than a 3% correction

Cash2Riches's picture

We've catapulted over the edge of the cliff and just havn't looked down yet. Those who are JUST getting into the action, like suckers are going to be hosed and left holding the bag.

 

http://jimroger.blogspot.com/2017/10/edge-of-cliff-big-story.html

LawsofPhysics's picture

LOL!!!  Winning indeed!  When you control the money supply, you can do and take whatever the fuck you want!!!

"Full Faith and Credit"

PlayMoney's picture

It will correct 3% when they allow it. Hell, they rarely let it even finish in the red anymore.

RagaMuffin's picture

that means  place order BTFD, DOW at -2.99% limit  ?

christiangustafson's picture

When it comes at long last, it won't be a "correction".

totenkopf88's picture

Good luck getting your money if you are short the next massive "correction". There will be no Michael Bury success stories 

USA USA's picture

OT, but, there is a lot of "junk in that trunk" ;-)

Arf

kliguy38's picture

Its all good...........

morethan1's picture

That's SO cute that you keep referring to it as a "market"...

Dragon HAwk's picture

Exactly when did the Zimbabwe Stock market crash,  we may have a long wait.

1stepcloser's picture

The crash was your ablity to feed your family using the local Fiat

1stepcloser's picture

Ticker symbol FARCE is a screaming buy 

ebworthen's picture

I see black tulips, everywhere.

wmbz's picture

 When it's marked to fantasy what does it matter?

Remember Jack Yellen said that "they" Banksters Inc. would buy the entire DOW components if need be.

lester1's picture

None of this shit is real. It's all unaudited Federal Reserve and central banks buying stocks!!

wmbz's picture

Yep, and the only thing that could stop them, will NOT...... CON-gress!

Bryan's picture

Um, we are in a new paradigm; unprecedented government interference with asset prices.  So chart porn and 'streaks' and 'corrections' are meaningless.  This is not your father's stock market and there is no correlation.

totenkopf88's picture

Jesse Livermore would be eating out of dumpsters if he was investing today

jamesmmu's picture

I was saying that if all option players went all in last Friday(option expiration day) for call options, market fall a little can wipe out all their bets, and now almost stocks turn red today even with upbeat economic data?

this is a fucking trap. they waited for everyone 100% bullish and sure  will be profitable and all in, now wallst are placing bets on the other side. total bloodhell.

https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/921446299492409346

 

 

RubyPetunia's picture

No. 4 is kind of interesting considering when it started.

alpha-protagonist's picture

Good news: market goes up
Bad news: market goes up
No news: market goes up

If an investor had invested based on the aforementioned bullshit for the past decade, they'd be wealthy right now. If they'd followed fundamentals, they wouldn't have made near as much. Warren Buffet -- the guy who can make a phone call to the most important people on earth -- and they pick up -- has come out and said don't bet against the markets. Is he telling us in plain sight that the markets are rigged? Talking your book is one thing, but when one of the most influential people in the world says something like that straight up, publicly...well, one has to wonder.

hangemhigh77's picture

Old Yellen said, “if you’re poor buy stocks “. Paraphrased. But hey that’s good advice for poor people. Yellen is so helpful for a little guy.

Clowns on Acid's picture

The Staliongrad and Poorsky will have a 2 to 3 % correction in OCT. They have to let it go once in A while just to maintain the sheeple's credibility. If the sheeple ever begin to wonder out loud....janet the Yellen would have to speak to the Public. And you know how that would go.

The S+P may even have a 5% correction if the evidence of Clinton Foundation, Seth Rich, Podesta etc....becomes crystal clear to Public. Need a bit of a show of who ios in charge if the sheeple start asking for Hillary, Podesta, Comey etc to be jailed.

juggalo1's picture

These markets piss me off.  The only way to win is to buy moar.  I find myself rooting for a major correction, just so my positions in anything but momo stocks can demonstrate some value.

Yippie21's picture

After the last 8 years of Fed policy, none of these "trends" make a wit of sense or do they predict anything.  We're in crazy-land...  and algos' are trading and fractional shares and most of it's in the ether.   It's turtles.. all the way down.

nsurf9's picture

Only American citizens should be in control our money.  And, no one should be unconstitutionally empowered to devalue, at their will, all the sweat, tears, blood and work we have done to honestly earn it. And, everything they have taken is STOLEN PROPERTY and fruit of the poisonous tree. 

 I agree with Henry T. Ford - there should "be a revolution before tomorrow morning" - if not this very second!!!

Meet the original charter members of United States Federal Reserve (Central) Bank and thieves of every cent you (and your children will) have ever made in your (their) entire lifetime. All of them are Rothchild and half of them are not even American.  

Rothschild Bank of London, Warburg Bank of Hamburg, Rothschild Bank of Berlin, Lehman Brothers of New York*, Lazard Brothers of Paris, Kuhn Loeb Bank of New York*,Israel Moses Seif Banks of Italy, Goldman, Sachs of New York, Warburg Bank of Amsterdam, Chase Manhattan Bank of New York

Aren't you curious why you don't know this?

wisebastard's picture

how the fuck is the market going to correct when the fed has been pumping it up with billions of dollars a month

remember its not the fall that kills you its the sudden stop at the end

surf@jm's picture

I`m just wondering when the FED will exercise its stock options, to have a FED member be the CEO on every major company board.......

Bobportlandor's picture

How much tax rev would be generated it they orchestrated a 3%, 5%, 7% drop?

 

 

dbsanfte's picture

Have we reached the tipping point yet where a critical mass of the market cap is held by passive funds? 

 

At that point stocks become Dutch tulips and are traded mainly on their perceived value like Bitcoin instead of on the underlying value of the firms themselves. And the invisible hand stops.

mr bear's picture

Mike Gleason, from Spotify, via Minyanville:

"Let's play the devil's advocate maybe a little here. We look at these record stock prices and wonder about what is beyond this extraordinarily high valuations in the past when PE ratios hit these levels, it was a signal that markets were nearing a top.

But there's one big difference between the past and today: the advent of high frequency and machine-driven trading. Huge amounts of daily volume is generated by trading algorithms. That is a game changer.

These programs don't sense risk on an emotional level like human traders do. They respond very differently to geopolitical events. So, if today's markets seem disconnected from reality, perhaps because it's because they are."

juggalo1's picture

Right on cue there is a massive correction.  Why we might drop a quarter % from the high.