The Most Important Charts For Wine Lovers

Tyler Durden's picture


While everyone continues to focus on stocks, a much larger, far more important situation is fermenting for wine lovers: global wine production crashes to 50-year low.

New data from the International Organization of Vine and Wine (OIV) indicates total world output is projected to hit 246.7 million hectoliters in 2017– an 8% drop compared with 2016 “one of the lowest levels for several decades”.

According to the drinks business,

Global wine inventories were already slightly tight going into 2017, but the decline in production in these key European producers will mean that the global wine industry is going into 2018 with inventories that are likely to be at least 20m hectolitres lower than they were going into 2017 – equivalent to nearly 8% of total global wine consumption. Wine available for consumption around the world will be at its lowest point in decades.

Why is there a global wine shortage? 

A new report issued from OIV indicates lower production levels were blamed on ‘extreme weather’ in Italy, France, and Spain – top 3 producers in the world. 

Meanwhile, Portugal, Romania, Hungary, Austria, the U.S. and countries in South America have seen a rise in production compared with 2016.

  • Very low production in Europe: production levels were at a historic low in Italy (39.3 mhl), France (36.7 mhl) and Spain (33.5 mhl). Germany (8.1 mhl) also recorded low production. Portugal (6.6 mhl), Romania (5.3 mhl), Hungary (2.9 mhl) and Austria (2.4 mhl) were the only countries to see a rise compared with 2016.
  • An even higher level of production was recorded in the United States (23.3 mhl).
  • In South America, production increased compared with the low levels of 2016, particularly in Argentina (11.8 mhl) and Brazil (3.4 mhl). In Chile (9.5 mhl), vinified production remained low.
  • Australian production (13.9 mhl) grew and New Zealand production (2.9 mhl) maintained a very good level despite a slight decline.

BBC indicates wildfires in California occurred after the harvest and will have minimal impact besides a 1% drop in production.

Output in the US – the world’s fourth-largest producer and its biggest wine consumer – is also due to fall by only 1% since reports indicate wildfires struck in California after the majority of wine producers had already harvested their crops.

2017 Wine production in the main producing countries

The VINEX is an independent web-based exchange connecting major buyers and sellers who trade bulk wine in high producing countries. VINEX Global Price Index (VGPI) shows bulk wine prices soaring in the past 1.5-years.

In addition to skyrocketing wine prices, world wine consumption (demand) continues to weaken from a 2008 peak, along with printing underneath the mean. Estimated wine consumption for 2017 is in the range 240.5 to 245.8 mhl.

The bottom line for wine lovers is higher prices in the future.

You’re witnessing one item a central bank cannot control = food price inflation. Just remember, food price inflation has toppled empires. You’ve been warned.

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hedgeless_horseman's picture


Death cross vs. government cheese supply?

YUNOSELL's picture

Expect higher wine alcohol content from the emerging Brix nations

wee-weed up's picture

And craft beer is booming.

Anteater's picture

And craft beer is bubbling. Not enough demand.

StychoKiller's picture

Well, sounds like I'm gonna have to order around 12 Lbs of this, in order to make some of this...

Nolde Huruska's picture

What's the word?


What's the price?

Sixty twice.

What's the reason?

Grapes, in season.

Doggerel circa 1976.

Isotope's picture

"Expect higher wine alcohol content from the emerging Brix nations."

I see what you did there.

Lost My Shorts's picture

Zerohedge is always trying to ruin my day.

Muppet's picture

Simple.  Quit whining. 

E.F. Mutton's picture

Good thing my beloved MD 20-20 isn't considered "Wine"
I think it falls in the "Antifreeze" category

shizzledizzle's picture

It's a "Fortified wine". I'll stick with my Beer and Bourbon.

UndertheDRADIS's picture

Amen, brother. Call for Jack, George, and Sam to stop by.

Anteater's picture

That Merlot is the high-performer just shows how f'd up the 

oenophile media is, pushing that dreck, when you can have

a nice bottle of Sauvignon Blanc for 10% off the huge $15

a bottle they charge for merlot, which is $3 cask wine with

a dollop of fruit concentrate, and a splash of corn ethanol.

They call it 'Five Buck Chuck' for a reason. I've been totally

lucky to sample an old bottle of Chateau Neuf de Pap, and

that was incredible, then got to sample a magnum of old

Rothschild's champagne, and that was outstanding. We get

just the wine dregs, the sulfated, methanol-tweaked dregs

made from the surplus raisin crop, lol.

Greenspazm's picture

Try Nuits Saint Wogga Wogga (a peppermint flavored Australian Burgundy) or Chateau Blue. Great for seductions: if the wine doesn't work try the bottle.

Herodotus's picture

This is why it is preferred by homeless men in northern climates.  MD 20-20 sales peak in January and February.

oddjob's picture

I wonder what percentage of global wine production is barfed back up.

UndertheDRADIS's picture

I always thought the stuff tasted like what happens halfway between grape juice and vinegar.

PhilofOz's picture

I live in one of the largest grape growing regions of Australia but I'll pass up on wine even if it's free! I'll stick to my single malt scotch, especially anything that comes from Islay.

venturen's picture

quality over quanity

Ron_Mexico's picture

Late frosts in France and Italy hurt the grape harvest. It's Global WarmingTM Climate ChangeTM.

lasvegaspersona's picture

Maybe NOW Yellen will listen!!!

Hkan's picture

"Life is too short for bad wine"

Quality of life = Quality red wine 

UndertheDRADIS's picture

For those of us who live away from the coastal metropoli. . . Life is too short to drink crappy beer.

Greenspazm's picture

"higher prices in the future"--not buying it. Check any supermarket or wine merchant in the EU, they have always had huge amounts of wine on offer that nobody buys.  Similar situation to channel stuffing by car dealers.

UdderContempt's picture

It won't be just wine in the coming years. Crop loss is increasing world wide.

Youri Carma's picture

Because you can replace wine with fresh fluoridated water it's not inflationary according to the FED.

UndertheDRADIS's picture

I think you are thinking of "hedonic" concepts applied to the CPLie.

ZeroBeek's picture

"lower production levels were blamed on ‘extreme weather’"

I'm so happy this has nothing tot do with climate change.

ffed's picture

Part 2!!! This one IS SHORT AND SWEET!!! LOL   of CENSORSHIP this one SEEMS VERY MUCH like they do not like what I have to say but who knows?????

King of Ruperts Land's picture

Time to sell Bitcoins and plant vines.

rf80412's picture

Switch to dry-farmed vines that will produce smaller crops and/or smaller grapes with proportionately more skin and more sugars in them.  Save the costs of irrigation and give yourself the kind of grapes that the best wines are made from.  In particular, the wine won't need to be heavily oaked to give it flavor.  Sell a smaller volume of a higher quality of product that consumers will pay a premium for.

roadhazard's picture

I'll have a San Miguel dark and a joint.

_SILENCER's picture

God made bourbon so we don't have to drink wine like girls.

edifice's picture

And the Commies made vodka, for the same purpose.

Jasher's picture

23 Drink no longer water, but use a little wine for thy stomach's sake and thine often infirmities.

Ben A Drill's picture

Smoke pot instead. It’s healthier.

Uranium Mountain's picture

Sometime in the future...  

Revelation 6:6New King James Version (NKJV)

And I heard a voice in the midst of the four living creatures saying, “A quart[a] of wheat for a denarius,[b] and three quarts of barley for a denarius; and do not harm the oil and the wine.”

Panic Mode's picture

Vodak + Campari + cranberry juice. That's my wine receipe.