American's Consumer Confidence Highest Since The Peak Of DotCom Bubble

Tyler Durden's picture

The animal spirits among American consumers has not been this 'high' since the year 2000...

The only time in US history that confidence was this high... was the dotcom bubble... but it's different this time...

 

With the Mountain Region surging to Dec 1999 record highs...

“Consumer confidence increased to its highest level in almost 17 years (Dec. 2000, 128.6) in October after remaining relatively flat in September,” said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board.

“Consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved, boosted by the job market which had not received such favorable ratings since the summer of 2001. Consumers were also considerably more upbeat about the short-term outlook, with the prospect of improving business conditions as the primary driver.

 

Confidence remains high among consumers, and their expectations suggest the economy will continue expanding at a solid pace for the remainder of the year.”

Interestingly, consumers’ outlook for the job market, however, was somewhat less favorable than in September.

The proportion expecting more jobs in the months ahead decreased marginally from 19.2 percent to 18.9 percent, however, those anticipating fewer jobs declined from 13.0 percent to 11.8 percent.

Regarding their short-term income prospects, the percentage of consumers expecting an improvement decreased marginally from 20.5 percent to 20.3 percent, however, the proportion expecting a decrease declined from 8.6 percent to 7.4 percent.

However, not everyone is exuberant, while the rich have never been richer and more confident (green), the poor (income <$15k) are seeing confidence collapse to the lowest since Aug 2016...

The rich-poor divide in confidence has never been higher...

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spastic_colon's picture

as evidenced by the chart this has to be the stupidest measure around........grind grind higher and then fall off a cliff........like this measures anything tangible.

so today is the last day of the month before the ram it up your ass rallies until the weekend.....ya know the ironically timed fed/aapl/fb/new fed chair/(your excuse here)

Juggernaut x2's picture

Overlay with homeowners' opening HELOCs

spastic_colon's picture

its almost like the stock markets are part of the measure /s

DownWithYogaPants's picture

Yah I am going to have to say I'm skeptical.  People don't seem all the hepped up about things.

Are you sure they are not measuring how good they are TELLING us it is?

Fiat Burner's picture

It measures how stupid people are. 

Got The Wrong No's picture

All is good. Spend, spend, spend, run up those credit cards. enslave yourselves. The tripe thanks you. 

LawsofPhysics's picture

"There is no _______ bubble." - Ben Bernanke, 2007

MuffDiver69's picture

Seems some people just won’t believe that a majority of people knew Obama was bad for the economy and know at minimum Trump is pro-business...It doesn’t fit the media narrative, so writers need to basically tell the American people they are stupid or something..It’s a tired act ZH...Just let it go and if polls don’t line up with your gloom and doom, then move on..You look petty trying to discredit what you don’t want to believe..Just report the stupid poll and the facts or move on..

Juggernaut x2's picture

Trump pro-business-  LOL- because he put a few hundred W Va coal miners to work? Where do you think trillions in US debt under Obama went? Right into the coffers of US Zombie Corporations.

Gaius Petronius's picture

Don't forget all the money Obama funneled to labor unions.

Gaius Petronius's picture

Yes Trump is pro business, but I think he may be screwed. This economy is f**ked up. None of the fundamentals make sense. Housing prices are distorted by excessively low interest rates. FAANG stocks go up and up and account for a large share of the overall increase in the market. Healthcare prices continue to increase, so fast that they are now doubling every 2-3 years according to the rule of 72. College tuition, room, and board are now 60,000 a year or more at most private colleges. Food prices keep going up. Automotive prices keep going up. Yet somehow, the government says inflation is a non-issue because your tv comes with wifi and your car has butt-warmers. The trillions the central banks funneled into the economy is distorting everything and is now the reason the economy is stagnate. The longer this drags on, the worse the medicine will be for everyone.

Endgame Napoleon's picture

Is this consumer-confidence measure determined through super-accurate polling, like the election polling that predicted a Hillary win, or is it determined by number of retail sales and the number of full-time, non-temporary jobs at wage levels sufficient to cover rent and all of the basics of living without the need for unearned, womb-productivity income, like welfare and child tax credits, from taxpayers?

ghengiskhan's picture

These are the same people that have two $600/month car payments and a $1500/month mortgage while both spouses make $16/hr and the kids dont eat since the credit cards are all maxed.  This generation proves we are rapidly devolving.

MisterMousePotato's picture

Probably a $1500/month lease/rental payment.

If I may, it sounds as if you are denigrating a combined income of $32/hr.

Sorry, but that is a fortune in the right hands.

Yes, inadequate in other hands, but that fact is not a proper metric to value a family income of $32/hr. In fact, it says quite a bit less about the adequacy of a family income of $32/hr. than it does about the inadequacy of - oh, say - $64/hr or even $128/hr in such hands.

 

Rainman's picture

A stroll down memory lane : ...The internet sector rose by more than 1,000 % between 1998 and 2000,..  price-earnings ratios hit levels never seen before.....

the sector traded on 856 times earnings in 1999.

Pollygotacracker's picture

The Fed is up against a rock and a hard place. They can continue on with QE to infinity, unleash the inflation they refuse to admit is already a reality, and burst the low rate bond bubble. Or, they can can end QE and ZIRP/NIRP and tank stocks. What is the exit strategy? Million dollar question.

AGuy's picture

"Seems some people just won’t believe that a majority of people knew Obama was bad for the economy and know at minimum Trump is pro-business."

Its Consumer Credit expansion that is driving this. Its back to "if its breathing, give it a loan" type of economy. Consumer debt is now at an all time high.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/current/

"In August, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4-1/4 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 7 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 3-1/4 percent."

As long has consumers can borrow easy & cheap expect the economy to do well, on "borrowed" time. Pun intended.

FYI: The next hurdle might be Obozocare premium increases for 2018. I suspect that the premium increases for 2018 will make it unaffordable for a lot of people, which has a chance of zapping the economies strength.

Got The Wrong No's picture

If gasoline prices go up too much, it will be the straw that breaks the camels back.  

BigWillyStyle887's picture

Whats not to be confident about? I havent had a raise in 6 years, house prices keep going up, food prices keep going up, health insurance prices keep going up, car prices keep going up. My future is so bright i gotta wear shades in this bitch........bitchezzzzz

Peacefulwarrior's picture

Is this why prescription meds are so popular?

Goldbugger's picture

What will they call this POP when the bubble blows.  That's the way the money goes. Pop goes the FEDS weasel.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6VpZk9dGXGA