Bond Bears & Why Rates Won't Rise

Tyler Durden's picture

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Here we go again…

Since June of 2013, I have been writing about the reasons why rates can’t rise much and why calls for the end of the “bond bull market” remain wrong.

Regardless, about every 3-months or so, there is a tick up in rates and you can almost bet that soon thereafter will be a litany of articles explaining why THIS time the “bond bull market” is really dead. For example, just from this past week:

What is the argument from low rates will rise?

It basically boils down to simply this – rates are so low they MUST go up.

The problem, however, is that interest rates are vastly different than equities. When people go to make a purchase on credit, borrow money for a house, or get a loan for a new car, they don’t ask what the level of the stock market is but rather “how much will this cost me?” The differentiator between making a purchase, or not, is based on the simple outcome of the interest rate effect on the loan payment. If interest rates rise too much, consumption stalls, and along with it economic growth, causing rates to go lower. If economic demand is robust, rates rise to meet the demand for credit.

The trend and level of interests are the singular best indicator of economic activity. As Doug Kass recently noted:

“The spread between the two- and ten-year U.S. notes has fallen to 68 basis points — that’s the lowest print in ten years and if history is a guide it is signaling a potential domestic economic slowdown.”

“The flattening in the yield curve is happening despite a likely continued Federal Reserve tightening and a rise back to December levels for overnight index swaps (OIS). It was back in 2004 — as the Fed started its tightening cycle (that concluded in Summer, 2006) — that both the curve flattened and the five year OIS rose. At the conclusion of the tightening in the middle of 2006, a deep recession followed by about fifteen to eighteen months later.”

In other words, “It’s the economy, stupid.”

Economic Growth Drives Rates

The chart below is a history of long-term interest rates going back to 1857. The dashed black line is the median interest rate during the entire period. I have compared it to the 5-year nominal GDP growth rate during the same period.

(Note: As shown, interest rates can remain low for a VERY long time.)

Interest rates are a function of strong, organic, economic growth that leads to a rising demand for capital over time.There have been two previous periods in history that have had the necessary ingredients to support rising interest rates. The first was during the turn of the previous century as the country became more accessible via railroads and automobiles, production ramped up for World War I and America began the shift from an agricultural to industrial economy.

The second period occurred post-World War II as America became the “last man standing” as France, England, Russia, Germany, Poland, Japan and others were left devastated. It was here that America found its strongest run of economic growth in its history as the “boys of war” returned home to start rebuilding the countries that they had just destroyed. But that was just the start of it.

Beginning in the late 50’s, America embarked upon its greatest quest in history as man took his first steps into space. The space race that lasted nearly twenty years led to leaps in innovation and technology that paved the wave for the future of America. Combined with the industrial and manufacturing backdrop, America experienced high levels of economic growth and increased savings rates which fostered the required backdrop for higher interest rates.

Currently, the U.S. is no longer the manufacturing powerhouse it once was and globalization has sent jobs to the cheapest sources of labor. Technological advances continue to reduce the need for human labor and suppress wages as productivity increases. Today, the number of workers between the ages of 16 and 54 is at the lowest level relative to that age group since the late 70’s. This is a structural and demographic problem that continues to drag on economic growth as nearly 1/4th of the American population is now dependent on some form of governmental assistance.

This structural employment problem remains the primary driver as to why “everybody” is still wrong in expecting rates to rise.

As you can see there is a very high correlation, not surprisingly, between the three major components (inflation, economic and wage growth) and the level of interest rates. Interest rates are not just a function of the investment market, but rather the level of “demand” for capital in the economy. When the economy is expanding organically, the demand for capital rises as businesses expand production to meet rising demand. Increased production leads to higher wages which in turn fosters more aggregate demand. As consumption increases, so does the ability for producers to charge higher prices (inflation) and for lenders to increase borrowing costs. (Currently, we do not have the type of inflation that leads to stronger economic growth, just inflation in the costs of living that saps consumer spending – Rent, Insurance, Health Care)

The chart above is a bit busy, but I wanted you to see the trends in the individual subcomponents of the composite index. The chart below shows only the composite index and the 10-year Treasury rate. Not surprisingly, the recent decline in the composite index also coincides with a decline in interest rates.

In the current economic environment, the need for capital remains low, outside of what is needed to absorb incremental demand increases caused by population growth, as demand remains weak. While employment has increased since the recessionary lows, much of that increase has been the absorption of increased population levels.

Many of those jobs remain centered in lower wage paying and temporary jobs which do not foster higher levels of consumption. To offset weaker organic consumption, artificially suppressed interest rates, though monetary policy, gives the appearance of economic growth by dragging forward future consumption which leaves a future “void” that has to be continually refilled.

Currently, there are few economic tailwinds prevalent that could sustain a move higher in interest rates. The reason is that higher interest reduces the flow of capital within the economy. For an economy that remains dependent on the generosity of Central Bankers, rising rates are not the outcome that “stock market bulls” should NOT be rooting for.

The Implications Of A Bond Bust

If there is indeed a bond bubble, a burst would mean bonds decline rapidly in price pushing interest rates markedly higher. This is the worst thing that could possibly happen. 

1) The Federal Reserve has been buying bonds for the last 9- years in an attempt to push interest rates lower to support the economy. The recovery in economic growth is still dependent on massive levels of domestic and global interventions. Sharply rising rates will immediately curtail that growth as rising borrowing costs slows consumption.

2) The Federal Reserve currently runs the world’s largest hedge fund with over $4 Trillion in assets. Long Term Capital Mgmt. which managed only $100 billion at the time nearly brought the economy to its knees when rising interest rates caused it to collapse. The Fed is 45x that size.

3) Rising interest rates will immediately kill the housing market, not to mention the loss of the mortgage interest deduction if the GOP tax bill passes, taking that small contribution to the economy away. People buy payments, not houses, and rising rates mean higher payments.

4) An increase in interest rates means higher borrowing costs which lead to lower profit margins for corporations. This will negatively impact the stock market given that a bulk of the “share buybacks” have been completed through the issuance of debt.

5) One of the main arguments of stock bulls over the last 9-years has been the stocks are cheap based on low interest rates. When rates rise the market becomes overvalued very quickly.

6) The massive derivatives market will be negatively impacted leading to another potential credit crisis as interest rate spread derivatives go bust.

7) As rates increase so does the variable rate interest payments on credit cards.  With the consumer are being impacted by stagnant wages, higher credit card payments will lead to a rapid contraction in income and rising defaults. (Which are already happening as we speak)

8) Rising defaults on debt service will negatively impact banks which are still not adequately capitalized and still burdened by large levels of bad debts.

9) Commodities, which are very sensitive to the direction and strength of the global economy, will plunge in price as recession sets in.

10) The deficit/GDP ratio will begin to soar as borrowing costs rise sharply. The many forecasts for lower future deficits will crumble as new forecasts begin to propel higher.

I could go on but you get the idea.

The problem with most of the forecasts for the end of the bond bubble is the assumption that we are only talking about the isolated case of a shifting of asset classes between stocks and bonds. However, the issue of rising borrowing costs spreads through the entire financial ecosystem like a virus. The rise and fall of stock prices have very little to do with the average American and their participation in the domestic economy. Interest rates, however, are an entirely different matter.

I won’t argue there is much room left for interest rates to fall in the current environment, there is also not a tremendous amount of room for increases. Since interest rates affect “payments,” increases in rates quickly have negative impacts on consumption, housing, and investment. This idea suggests is that there is one other possibility that the majority of analysts and economists ignore which I call the “Japan Syndrome.”

Japan is has been fighting many of the same issues for the past two decades. The “Japan Syndrome” suggests that while interest rates are near lows it is more likely a reflection of the real levels of economic growth, inflation, and wages.

If that is true, then rates are most likely “fairly valued” which implies that the U.S. could remain trapped within the current trading range for years as the economy continues to “muddle” along.

The irrationality of market participants, combined with globally accommodative central bankers, continues to push asset values higher and concentrate investors into the ongoing “chase for yield.” There isn’t much guessing on how this will end, history tells us that such things rarely end well.

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Crazy Or Not's picture

Euro stocks warning, and a new war in the Middle East shouldn't affect anything then.... phew! /sarc
(If there's a correction - phlease oh God ...can we just get the fuk on with it!)

Dukes's picture

The Japan experiement set the bar.

Showed it "can be done".

Utter and consistent stagnation that can never be fixed until an entire new paradigm is introduced.

No government is willing to introduce a new paradigm because this "works".

panhead20's picture

When the next correction -

The market will always be a bear or a bull.

ejmoosa's picture

Demand for money should drive rates.  But when the Fed promises an endless supply results will vary.

Conscious Reviver's picture

Bolsheviks love central planning. Too bad for us it never really works.

jamesmmu's picture

I know what their trick is with every selloff, broker firms block access to the customers til the stocks start to recover, and then when they finally log in, they are less willing to sell them. 30mins passed by, still cant accesss my etrade acct:

 

 

It seems the page you requested is too BUSY.
Please give it a try in a few minutes.              

LawsofPhysics's picture

LOL!!!  There's that "growth meme again...

We are quickly approaching 8 BILLION people, all competing for the very real resources required to maintain a decent standard of living.  There is plenty of demand for real shit motherfuckers.

Demand for useless "financial products"?

Not so much.

Now, jump you fuckers!

Ron_Mexico's picture

no problem when 95% are kept abjectly poor . . .

LawsofPhysics's picture

LOL!!!  Sure sure.  Most are kept there by their own doing.

Keep having those kids you stupid fucks, the giverment will always be there to "help"!

"Full Faith and Credit"

Youri Carma's picture

It’s QE, stupid.

RealistDuJour's picture

Gosh Darn it.  I need a new prescription.  I'm trying to find a monetary policy chart.  It must be there, because any discussion of interest rates in the absence of what the monetary policy is/was is pure folly.  I'm sure it's all fine and dandy to say look 37 years of this low rates and 42 year of low rates that... but wouldn't it be interesting to see what the monetary supply was like during those periods...

herkomilchen's picture

What about price inflation.  If price inflation gets to 3%, 5%, 10%, who is going to buy US bonds only paying 1% rather than assets that keep pace with inflation?  No one.

To keep bond yields at 1%, the Fed will have no choice but to become the only buyer of bonds anywhere.  Requiring way, way more money printing, blowing inflation even higher.  Or else cry "no mas" and allow rates to rise, as Volker did.

The Fed better pray economic stagnation continues to worsen indefinitely.  That's the only thing keeping realized inflation low.  Without continued decline, the Fed's manipulation scheme will implode.

SurlysonofaBitch's picture

I'll sumerize the article for the many ZHers who no longer read them and scroll immediatly to the comments: Interests rates CAN'T up up because it would really suck if they did.

Fisherman Blue's picture

 

>>>>>Time to short this motherfucker

>>>>>>BTFD?

MagicMoney's picture

Japan has low-interest rates because the government can't afford higher interest rates. Nothing to do with the real economy. A bond bust wouldn't necessarily make commodity prices plunge. It could depreciate the currency and pave the way for the expectation of new stimulus.

 

Don't confuse with increased borrowing with more growth. That is like increased spending is more growth. If I spent all my money, then my very last assets like my only car and only house to fund a vacation do you really call that economic growth? Same goes for any person who lives beyond their means. If they have to dive deeper into debt to increase any "growth" is that real growth? Unless you believe in trading in the future for the present, then this is true. This is the illusion of growth that central banks create. It is not the real economy. What central banks do is the same way American politicians run insurance. They make home insurance attractive after people have their houses burned down and get insurance to pay for it. A house is not a productive asset but central banks and government let you own a house without the need of productivity to acquire it. This all comes down to Keynesianism. The money exchanging hands nonsense. Considering how expensive homes are you can see the opportunity cost here for the economy. The same goes for the stock market. Inefficient use of capital due to the central banks rigging price signals. Such as the case of housing. 

Don't confuse low-interest rates under a gold standard with interest rates under fiat currency either. 5% interest rate under the gold standard can be far different from 5% under fiat currency.

Savings don't increase interest rates either.. You got it in reverse. Demand for cash puts pressure on interest rates to scale up. If the central bank wanted to reduce government borrowing it could do so by increasing interest rates which means debts more expensive. Comparing the 1950's to today is very misleading. Very different economies at different times. Americans had no credit cards back then. We have much more debt today with ample supply of credit. There is no denying this.

In reality, interest rates that are too low prevent a real economic recovery using capital efficiently. The purpose to prevent the unwind because of the uncertainty of a recession brings. A bubble is something that central bankers are more comfortable with. This is the policy that dominates.

 

US will become more like Japan with some differences. US has a lot more to lose and it is coming from a position of weakness rather than strength in certain areas. It runs trade deficits which likely will get bigger with debts that will likely get bigger. Alan Greenspan has been talking about the debts for decades now. The elephant in the room is that the US will be increasing its imports while exporting debts which are future claims on goods. Problem is the US will produce less goods. The reliance of good faith in the reserve currency is all stands. Demographics don't look good for the US. I can see the US continue down very low-interest rate environment  until there is no denying.