Buchanan Fears A GOP Bloodbath - The Lesson For 2018

Tyler Durden's picture

Authored by Patrick Buchanan via Buchanan.org,

The day after his “Silent Majority” speech on Nov. 3, 1969, calling on Americans to stand with him for peace with honor in Vietnam, Richard Nixon’s GOP captured the governorships of Virginia and New Jersey.

By December, Nixon had reached 68 percent approval in the Gallup Poll, though, a year earlier, he had won but 43 percent of the vote.

Contrast Nixon’s numbers with President Trump’s.

Where Trump won 46 percent of the vote against Hillary Clinton, his approval rating is now nearly 10 points below that. He has less support today than on the day he was elected, or inaugurated.

Tens of millions of Americans are passionately for Trump, and tens of millions are passionately against him.

The GOP problem: The latter cohort is equal in intensity but larger in number, and this is especially true in purple and blue states like the commonwealth of Virginia.

There is no way to spin Tuesday as other than a Little Bighorn, and possible harbinger of what is to come.

In George Washington’s hometown of Alexandria and Arlington County, Democratic candidate Ralph Northam won 4-1. In Fairfax and Loudoun counties, the most populous D.C. suburbs, Northam won 2-1.

In the rural counties, however, Republican Ed Gillespie rolled up the landslides.

As there are two Americas, there are two Virginias.

Consider. Of all the delegate seats in the Virginia assembly allocated to Alexandria, Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William counties, the GOP can today claim only one.

Northern Virginia is taking on the political and socioeconomic profile of San Francisco.

Another and perhaps insoluble problem for the GOP, not only in the Old Dominion, is demography.

Democrats rolled up their largest margins among African-Americans, Hispanics, single women, immigrants and the young. And these voting blocs are growing.

Gillespie ran up his largest margins among white males near and past retirement age and married white women. These Middle Americans are in inexorable demographic decline.

The Greatest Generation is passing on, and baby boomers born between 1946 and 1951 are now on Medicare and Social Security.

Yet reports of the GOP’s demise are grossly exaggerated.

Though Gillespie lost by nine points, Jill Vogel, who ran for lieutenant governor on Trumpian issues, lost by six.

By 2-1, Virginians do not want their Confederate monuments torn down. Northam, sensing this, moved toward Gillespie’s position as the campaign went on. Also, among the 27 percent of Virginians who regarded taxes and immigration as the top issues, Gillespie won by nearly 4-1.

It was health care concerns, the No. 1 issue, that buried the GOP.

As for mainstream media rage and revulsion at the “racism” of Gillespie ads suggesting Northam supported sanctuary cities and was soft on the MS-13 gang, this reflects an abiding establishment fear of the Trumpian issues of illegal immigration and crime.

Then there was the Republican messenger.

A former chairman of the RNC, Washington lobbyist and White House aide, Gillespie is an establishment Republican unconvincing in the role of a fighting populist conservative. His speeches recalled not Trump’s run, but that of the Republicans Trump trounced.

Ed Gillespie was Virginia’s version of Jeb Bush.

Message from the Old Dominion: A purple state, trending blue, with its economy recession-proof as long as Uncle Sam across the river consumes 20 percent of GDP, is a steepening climb for the GOP. You must have a superior candidate, comfortable with cutting issues, to win it now.

Republicans are being admonished to drop the monuments-and-memorials issue and respect why NFL players might want to “take a knee” during the national anthem.

But if to win in Northern Virginia the GOP must move closer to the Democratic Party, why would the rest of the state want to vote for the Republican Party?

During the campaign, both candidates moved rightward.

Northam rejected sanctuary cities and accepted Lee and Jackson on Richmond’s Monument Avenue, and Gillespie ran Trumpian ads, even if they seemed to clash with the mild-mannered candidate himself.

The lesson for 2018:

While the solid support of Trumpians is indispensable for GOP victory, it is insufficient for GOP victory. Republican candidates will have to decide how close they wish to get to President Trump, or how far away they can risk going and survive.

Facing this choice, Sens. Jeff Flake and Bob Corker decided to pack it in. Other Republicans may follow. But a house divided will not stand.

Republicans should recall that off-year elections are often problematic for incumbent parties. In 1954, President Eisenhower lost both houses of Congress. After pardoning Nixon in 1974, Gerald Ford lost 49 seats. In 1982, Ronald Reagan sustained a 27-seat loss.

In 1994, Bill Clinton lost 53 seats and control of the House. In 2010, Barack Obama lost 63 seats and control of the House.

If the nation chooses to turn Congress over to Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer in 2018, will that be all Trump’s fault? Or should perhaps some credit go to Paul Ryan, Mitch McConnell and venerable political tradition?

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GreatUncle's picture

You mean those rupture lines created before Trump.

king leon's picture

Looking at the US from the outside, the country is just one big fucked up mess. As for the media and the stupid fucks that run the country "it's a fucking clown fest" 

nmewn's picture

"A former chairman of the RNC, Washington lobbyist and White House aide, Gillespie is an establishment Republican unconvincing in the role of a fighting populist conservative. His speeches recalled not Trump’s run, but that of the Republicans Trump trounced.

Ed Gillespie was Virginia’s version of Jeb Bush."

Exactly.

And Corker & Flake can go burn on the same "historic" funeral pyre as Cantor, Jeb, Hillary & Boehner.

Whats the problem? ;-)

TheLastTrump's picture

Bitch back off. No one got time fo dat.

hotrod's picture

NOT ABOUT THE GOP VS THE DEMOCRATS

IT IS ABOUT THE PEOPLE VS THE GOVERNMENT

Miskondukt's picture

This is true but not how the left lemmings view it.

Nekoti's picture

Lemmings make good target practice.

Nekoti's picture

You are so right. R or D, doesn't matter, .gov does not have our best interest in mind.

GreatUncle's picture

To clarify ... .gov only has its best interest in mind everything else is bullshit.

That is why we observe bullshit all over the place now.

hotrod's picture

Yes I think we are past the point of Democrats vs GOP.

It does not matter.  People vs The Swamp

Wahooo's picture

Orange guy was my last GOP vote, in fact my last vote period. I just laugh at people who vote. What silly imperative drives them?

toady's picture

I gave up after they voted in W.... if they could vote in a retarded, draft dodging, alcoholic coke dealer.... well, I just woke up I guess...

Nobody I ever voted for won, not even the propositions... I guess I just don't understand the whole voting thing....

MK13's picture

Hmm, while you were bitching about not voting, left was figuring out a way to cheat the system, have illegals and dead vote, and strip mine your money. So GOP may not be ideal vote, but it's the only one that keeps the plates spinning so something positive could take place in future. Otherwise, you might as well start reading Karl Marx and donate your assets to government.

LetThemEatRand's picture

The opposite is true.  So long as people think voting matters, they won't revolt.  That is why the Team system exists.

GreatUncle's picture

That is why color purple is a fuck up, a single purple team is only one known enemy and readily identified.

If they were clever ...

You have multiple teams, because if you use a FPTP system you can win easy on 30% of those that vote.

PR you just need to control the largest group can be very small then just P2P the heads of smaller ones.

But best of all an appointed system, where you have no meaningful vote at all the delightful EU commission.

When they seek to reduce the number of representatives like they are currently pushing for in the UK ... bad news that is less people to bribe for control in a 100% corrupt system.

In all case it is govern for less votes now ... eventually more will wake up to have their voices have been stripped away.

THE REAL QUESTION IS BY WHO?

Miskondukt's picture

Virginia was blue before trump won and is still blue...how is this any kind of show of hand? Iirc the county, aka voters, was destructively red and this dude writes about a gop bloodbath.

Yet another context lacking puppet pundit lemming.

Omen IV's picture

north virginia is government workers dedicated togovernment - they hate Trump - proves nothing

rickv404's picture

The only lesson Republicans will learn is to go back to their old ways, as if they ever left them, which means the ways of Bush, Nixon and Hoover. Buchanan is nuts, thinking saving the Republican party is worth it.

nmewn's picture

I guess I am supposed to be comforted by you thinking Hoover, Nixon & the Bushes were conservative and not card carrying progs (they were, W increased the size of .gov twofold & Nixon gave us the EPA by Executive Order) and the fact you omitted Ronaldus Magnus...speaks volumes ;-)

falconflight's picture

I hate to agree with you, but facts are facts.  Nixon also signed into law the fake demographic to be used by the US gov't: hispanic.  

nmewn's picture

I just LMAO at people who call Hoover, Nixon and the Bushes "conservatives". Its gettin almost like the euro-peons where democrat-socialists are the "conservatives" and only communists are the leftists...lol.

CNONC's picture

I think that was the point he was making.  The Republicans will only learn the lesson they want to learn. They will convince themselves again that the conservatives have nowhere else to go, and so will tolerate more Hoovers, Nixons and Bushes, as it is preferable to a Hillary or Obama.  

besnook's picture

i like the party that kicks israel to the curb, cuts off banker balls and brings our military home. which one is that party?

Wahooo's picture

Don't know but they'll call it NAZI and Hitler and the rest will be history.

Anteater's picture

The Kickemintheballslicrats.

Their party logo will be a Tiger,

in soccer gear, scoring a goal-on

kick into the Gate Keepers' nuts.

Their platform will be 'Shut It Down'.

They will be kept off the ballot by

SCOTUS and Federal Marshalls will

arrest write-in attempts, but by 2020

USA will be Venezuela 2 at that point.

Elections will be a thin charade, just

before the Black Friday zombie fest.

Choose ZioWarPigA or ZioWarPigB,

then go have pizza in an empty mall

and watch a totally CGI written by AI,

"Captain Samdech and Band of Oom!"

Next Monday you'll have forgotten it all.

Then News Years debauch, the Super Dull,

and a Rabbi blessing the next ZioWarPig,

as another 1,000,000 H-3Bs fly over The Wall.

Wahooo's picture

Pat, who gives a shit? No matter what happens, you'll write blogs, make paid-for TV appearances, sell books, sell your opinions. The fucking jews and bankers and their MIC enforcers can slay the rest of us and you'll still be set.

Anteater's picture

It will be the Deep Purple UniParty 'choice' (sic) between ZioWarPigA

and ZioWarPigB from here on out. Pop Zio Politics has crushed the

obsolete two-party political machine local organizing ad buy matrix.

2018 will be a punch card full of ZioWarPig muppets, then 2020 will

be a ZioMedia Let'sPretendWe'reADemocracyAndYourVoteMatters.

https://youtu.be/Zam3hukPB78

MK13's picture

Buchanan always wanted rule of law, ruled by Christian and western ideology, not leftist liberalism or globalism - so he had to be politically neutered by Bushes and co. Anyone who doesn't understand that Buchanan is a real American conservative either doesn't know history or gets paid to post disinformation.

djsmps's picture

If I remember correctly, they said the exact same thing slightly over a year ago.

pippi68's picture

If they're neocons, fine, let the bloodbath begin. Who cares? Neolibs and neocons are a part and parcel of the same dang evil working against the American people.

pparalegal's picture

Pfft. Republicans hate being in control and hate having to make good (never have) on promises. Their natural comfort zone is second place throwing spit wads, making promises and asking for money unseat the Democrats.  It is historical. Americans never vote for anyone (Trump excepted), they always vote the other bastards out.

Zorba's idea's picture

One of the best summations of the Republican establishment. There may be some hope with the freedom caucus.

Anunnaki's picture

Let’s see them win in a Red State. They had more to lose than fan.

But it knocked Donna Vrazile out of the news costing her millions in royalties

wisehiney's picture

It could not be much different if dims were in the majority.

QIG's picture

You know, you really have to admire th sheer creativity of the liar class.

 

This is a totlal garbage message.  The Trump support will grow so large by 2020 that anyone rinning as a democrat EXCEPT a VMI man and or doctors like Northam in Va. will lose flat out

 

I would not be surprised to see TRRRRUUmp get 90% of the counry in 2020, And if this articl.e, narrtive or whatever you want to call garbage like this scares any GOP I hope they die of fear so we will not accidently elect them in 2018.

John Humphrey's picture

Agreed. As I said before, Trump has more support now than ever.

homebody's picture

All the dems need is New York, New Jersey, Virginia, California - with the change in demographics, the free shit army will win.   The 90% of the country does not matter to them at all until the shooting starts. 

Singelguy's picture

Trump may have great support but as long as the establishment bought and paid for Congress (including members of his own party) are working against him, it has little meaning. Trump has to focus that support on removing the RINO's and supporting true conservative patriots in the upcoming mid term elections. Trump's power is limited; he is not a dictator. He needs Congress's support to fulfill his campaign promises, at least for the big stuff. In the meantime, he needs to clean out all the Obama apoointed civil service in order to eliminate any administrative resistance to his policies.

Anunnaki's picture

Beg Bannon to come back

bunkers's picture

Angry people vote and conservatives are, generally, not angry anymore. The problem is that liberals ARE angry and they ARE voting.

Unless conservatives can find their anger, again, they will lose in 2020.

Cabreado's picture

And very efficiently, Buchanan exposes himself as just fine still playing "democrat" and "republican."

RussianSniper's picture

The only way corrupt DC rights itself, is if these scumbags term limit themselves, and disallow ex-representatives from lobbying forever....
Or face conviction and a long prison term.

The swamp is FUBAR

Ajax-1's picture

Would it require a Consitutional Convention whereby 2/3 majority to impose term limits or could it be done with a National Voter Referendum? Just curious if anyone has any insights on this issue.

Singelguy's picture

It would either have to be initiated by Congress (which they would never do) or a grass roots Constitutional convention. Whatever is passed at the convention has to be ratified by 2\3 of the states with 2/3 majority vote. Ammending the Constitution is a difficult process, as the founding fathers intended. The only other way to change it is by revolution.

To Hell In A Handbasket's picture

Trump is draining the swamp. Evidence of this swamp draining is everywhere. Just look around? It's the richest cabinet by wealth in history, full of Goldmanites and Gentiles. There is no need for term limits, as Trump is fulfilling his campaign promises.

MAGA for ever.

John Humphrey's picture

This is bullshit. I don't give a damn what any poll says, Trump has more support now than ever. After the 2016 election, I don't know why anyone would pay attention to polls.

homebody's picture

Let us all elect dems, add more freeloaders, and bring in half the third world.  Then the collapse will happen faster and we can start the cleanup sooner.  Looks like Rand was right when she wrote Atlas Shrugged.