She's Back! La Niña Is Here For The Second Consecutive Year

Tyler Durden's picture

For the second consecutive time in two years, La Niña (translated from Spanish as “little girl”) is back and she means business. New data from Climate.gov indicates La Niña conditions have formed just in time for winter weather in the Northern Hemisphere.

On Thursday, the Climate Prediction Center confirmed La Niña after analyzing October ocean temperatures cooling along the equatorial eastern and central Pacific Ocean. La Niña is often declared when sea surface temperatures in the region (just stated) decline by 0.5 degrees Celsius.

John Morales‏, Chief Meteorologist WTVJ NBC-6 Miami, shows the progression of cool water over the equatorial Pacific Ocean responsible for La Niña formation.

The cooler waters have an influence on atmospheric conditions by decreasing evaporation in the tropics, which is a major driver of global weather.

According to the Weather Channel,

A typical La Niña winter in the U.S. brings cold and snow to the Northwest and unusually dry conditions to most of the southern tier of the U.S., according to the prediction center.

 

The Southeast and Mid-Atlantic also tend to see warmer-than-average temperatures during a La Niña winter. New England and the Upper Midwest into New York tend to see colder-than-average temperatures.

Climate Prediction Center /NCEP/NWS Full Report: La Niña conditions are predicted to continue (~65-75% chance) at least through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2017-18.

During October, weak La Niña conditions emerged as reflected by below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across most of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The weekly Niño indices were variable during the month, with values near -0.5° C during the past week in the Niño-3.4 and Niño-3 regions [Fig. 2]. Sub-surface temperatures remained below average during October [Fig. 3], reflecting the anomalously shallow depth of the thermocline across the central and eastern Pacific [Fig. 4]. Also, convection was suppressed near the International Date Line and slightly enhanced over parts of the Maritime Continent and the Philippines [Fig. 5]. Over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, low-level trade winds were mainly near average, but the upper-level winds were strongly anomalously westerly and the Southern Oscillation Index was positive. Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system reflects the onset of La Niña conditions.

 

For the remainder of the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2017-18, a weak La Niña is favored in the model averages of the IRI/CPC plume [Fig. 6] and also in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) [Fig. 7]. The consensus of forecasters is for the event to continue through approximately February-April 2018. In summary, La Niña conditions are predicted to continue (~65-75% chance) at least through the Northern Hemisphere winter (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

 

La Niña is likely to affect temperature and precipitation across the United States during the upcoming months (the 3-month seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks will be updated on Thursday November 16th). The outlooks generally favor above-average temperatures and below-median precipitation across the southern tier of the United States, and below-average temperatures and above-median precipitation across the northern tier of the United States.

La Niña weather phenomenon easily explained:

Ben Noll, Meteorologist, National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research of New Zealand, compares the equatorial sea-surface temperatures in 2016 and 2017. His findings indicate 2017 waters “not as large farther west” when compared with 2016. Basically he validates NOAA’s “weaker La Niña” claim...

NOAA’s winter weather outlook indicates normal participation for the mid-tier of the United States. The southern-tier is forecasted to see much drier conditions. Meanwhile, the Great Lakes region and Northwest of the United States appear to have much wetter conditions.

Temperature outlooks for this winter include at-least 2/3 of the United States well above average. Below average to normal in regions, such as the Great Lakes region and Northwest.

Bottomline: What do weather forecasters and Dennis Gartman both have in common?... Well you guessed it– terrible forecasting...

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Lost in translation's picture

Chemtrails.

Lots of spraying activity over the Orange County CA beaches as I write this...

JusticeTBuford's picture

Like an Etch-A-Sketch for airplanes.  Love to try it sometime.

Gap Admirer's picture

I'm just glad the the climate models, which do not match historical data by the way, can precisely predict what will happen with our climate 50 years from now.  The models even say if taxes are dramatically raised by the government and individual freedom taken away by that same government, Earth's temperature will stabilize to the "correct" temperatures.

Science says so.  If you don't believe it you're a science denier.

Lost in translation's picture

Wrong, wrong, and WRONG.

Everyone knows that climate change is caused by lack of federal funding.

Gap Admirer's picture

Well, that too. 

Science says so.

Fishkiller's picture

Slack Jack?
Edit
Sorry, didn’t check your link, haven’t been here that long.

Manthong's picture

 

Nina… Nino….  Mas o menas weather will happen.

…and anything that freezes New York is a good thing.

 

Actually, it is Hillary’s cold, dark, dry nether regions that sucks the warmth out of the atmosphere there..

 

..glad she is not back in Park Ridge, Il.

J S Bach's picture

I guess the "little girl" was twins last year, so we have an excuse.

RedPillGirl's picture

La niña esta muy caliente.

 

Fish Gone Bad's picture

If someone on the news is telling me something then.... it is wrong.  Fuck them.  They can't even tell the weather that is happening right outside their window.  To be this retarded actually takes a lot of practice, and from what I gather, quite a bit of money.

Esta niña es una puta.

OverTheHedge's picture

Damn! Yet another link containing naked ladies that I am going to have to check to confirm you are spamming. I do wish you wouldn't, I had things to do this morning. Oh well.
Now, where did I put that swarfega - the one with the abrasive beads...

(For those who don't...https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swarfega)

detached.amusement's picture

those are some disgusting fake ass tits there

God Emperor's picture

Fear not peasants, more taxes will save us

Laowei Gweilo's picture

I believe it.

BC, Canada got snow early as fuck this year... earliest in a couple decades, it feels like.

even last year with confirmed La Nina, lower mainland didn't get snow until early-mid December. 17th for downtown by the ocean, IIRC.

broader lower mainland (within an hour of downtown but a bit above sea level) got snow first few days of Nov :O wtf. think I only ever saw Halloween twice and not since the 80s o.0

that said, it's been much dryer than last year. VAN last year got 32 days of rain or total cloud overcast in something like 35 days. so far within Fall has been super dry compared to that, a few days of hard rain aside.

afronaut's picture

Vancouver is waaay ahead of average rainfall this year(2017) even with the typical dry summer.

Richard Chesler's picture

Time to ban scantily clad magazine pictures.

cheka's picture

tx gulf coast here -- 'they' love LOVE to spray over the gulf of mexico.  can watch a caravan of sprayers head out there practically every morning between 9 and 11 am

Laowei Gweilo's picture

I think probably from the first half of the year though, the end of La Nina... That said, my impression could be skewed by last Fall. I.e., even though it feels dry compared to crazy last Fall, it's still wet vs the average.  As I'm sure your stats are right; just I wonder maybe it's an average fall but anually it's above average cuz of Jan-June rained like crazy.

Troll Magnet's picture

Fuck Bruce. We need Al Gore!

freedogger's picture

Got my skis shined up. Gonna grab a stick of Juicy Fruit. 

sonoftx's picture

Keep the tractor. I am not sure why you got kicked off but the tractor is a dead give a way. I liked your previous name better. Use a little imagination next time.

afronaut's picture

Trouble is, its computer science

afronaut's picture

Growing up in vacouver in the 60s and 70s I never remember snow on halloween

Sparkey's picture

If paying taxes can change the climate why not put it back where it is supposed to be, the winter of 1955 was perfect, just saying!

 

johnhornby's picture

Just once I would like to see a public discussion where someone asks one of the Climate Change prophets exactly what data set or event it would take to convince them that man is not significantly affecting long term climate patterns.  I predict if they did, they would either be told the science is settled and therefore that is a pointless question, or they would not provide a definative answer.  That is the test.  If they can't define a metric that disproves their theory, then their theory also can't be taken as fact.  The bottom line is for some at least, the whole climate change thing is being used as a means to an end state of governance.  The other tell is how little discussion is entertained regarding the option of not trying to stop climate change (assuming we know it is coming soon), but to deal with the consequences.  Regardless of the scientific merits of the debate, this is clearly being driven by a political agenda.  We can still have electric cars and do our best to maintain a clean environment, etc. without the political agenda and the mocking of anyone that doesn't fall in line with said.

Lost in translation's picture

In the setting sun I could see the sunlight on the fuselage of the airplane, way up.

Hard to make out, but it was a white color.

XBroker1's picture

That's got to be expensive. I wonder why there's not a more obvious market play on this.

gramps's picture

There were a shit load of them in LA yesterday.

Shpedly's picture

They are contrails you idiot. WTF

frontierland's picture

Saw them all the time when I lived in LA. 

Now that I'm in Ventura, we have just as many planes flyin in and out...   Zero Chemtrails.

_SILENCER's picture

Spraying usually ticks up when the weather cools off.

I lived in Ventura for decades. From about 2007-2012 the spraying was out of goddamn control over Vta County.

OC is getting hammered right now.

Alogon's picture

I thought chemtrails was a distraction conspiracy theory.... Solar Radiation Management not so much. 

shovelhead's picture

Makes those surfer dudes sterile.

That can only help.

Enceladus's picture

That little bitch...I bet she's from Russia 

any_mouse's picture

From Iran, directed by Russia.

wisehiney's picture

Sigh.

Water, water, water and water some fucking more.

I am so tired of dragging these water hoses.

holdbuysell's picture

Mother Earth just can't seem to shake these global warming woes.

Antifaschistische's picture

another beautiful Winter in Houston.   Nice.

Hey, did they fix that Orville Dam in Cali yet?   gidy up.

alpha-protagonist's picture

Nah. If they play their cards right, they won't do anything until after the next catastrophe so they can collect more federal funds.

Drop-Hammer's picture

I live in Texas and Florida.  Don't care about La Nina.

Twee Surgeon's picture

You must be Huuuuge. Please try not to squash anyone.

Arnold's picture

Hundreds of Thousands Dead in Mississippi and Alabama.
Flatulence Ruled Probable Cause.

Twee Surgeon's picture

It would explain many Tornadoes.