S&P Downgrades Venezuela To "Selective Default" After Bondholder Meeting Devolves Into Total Chaos

Tyler Durden's picture

Creditors had little expectations from today's ad hoc meeting with "soon-to-default" Venezuela, and with good reason: not only was the meeting attended by several sanctioned Venezuelan officials, potentially jeopardizing the legal status of any bondholders who voluntarily appeared at the Caracas meeting meant to "restructure and refinance" Venezuela's massive debt load, but it was nothing but total confusion, with neither Venezuela, nor creditors knowing what is on the agenda, why they were meeting, or what is the endgame. In sum, the meeting resulted in no firm proposals, lasted no more than 30 minutes, consisted largely of an angry rant by an alleged drug dealer who also happens to be Venezuela's vice president, and ended as chaotically as it started.

Quoted by Reuters, one unnamed bondholder had a perfectly succinct summary of what happened today, or rather didn't:

There was no offer, no terms, no strategy, nothing,the bondholder said, leaving the meeting that lasted a little over half an hour at the ‘White Palace’, departing with a colorful gift-bag containing Venezuelan chocolates and coffee.

Credit walked in as confused as they left, a little over a week after President Nicolas Maduro stunned investors with a vow to continue paying Venezuela’s crippling debt, while also seeking to restructure and refinance it; the two things are literally impossible at the same time. There is another problem: both a restructuring and a refinancing appears out of the question, due to U.S. sanctions against the crisis-stricken nation, which make discussions with the key negotiators who has been put on a sanctions black list, grounds for potential arrest. A default would compound Venezuela’s already disastrous economic crisis.

As Reuters reports, Monday’s short and confused meeting, attended by senior Venezuelan officials blacklisted by the United States, gave no clarity on how Maduro would carry out his plan, bondholders and their representatives who participated said afterwards.

That means Venezuela remains with the dilemma of whether to continuing paying debt at the expense of an increasingly hungry and sick population, or defaulting on creditors and burning its bridges to the global financial system.

Vice President Tareck El Aissami, the only government official to speak, devoted most of his remarks to railing against Donald Trump and global financiers who he said have conspired to keep the country from making debt payments on time. He pledged Venezuela would continue to honor its obligations while working to form committees with bondholders to figure out the next steps. He offered no specific proposals for restructuring, according to Bloomberg which was briefed by people who attended the meeting, which wasn’t open to journalists.

The surreal procession of Venezuela's descent into insolvency started earlier:

The event, held across from the presidential palace at Palacio Blanco, was accompanied by much fanfare, with a literal red carpet laid out for attendees who passed through an honor guard on their way into the building. After government Twitter accounts sent repeated invitations to the meeting over the past week, it appeared that no more than 100 people showed up, and none of them were allowed to ask any questions publicly. Finance Minister Simon Zerpa, Oil Minister Eulogio del Pino, PDVSA President Nelson Martinez and planning vice president Ricardo Menendez were in attendance.

The most notable presence, however, was that of chief debt negotiators Vice President Tareck El Aissami and Economy Minister Simon Zerpa - whom the U.S. previously sanctioned for drug trafficking and corruption charges respectively - who attended the meeting for half an hour. As Reuters recounts, "they met with some bondholders, while others stayed out of the room on concerns about penalties for dealing with officials sanctioned by Washington."

At that point the meeting turned even more bizarre:

El Aissami told creditors that Deutsche Bank may soon cut off some financial services to Venezuela, participants said. He read a statement protesting unfair treatment by global financial institutions, including U.S. President Donald Trump’s sanctions aimed at preventing Venezuela from issuing new debt.

In retrospect, the move was at least somewhat clever: “Now Maduro can say: ‘I showed goodwill, the bondholders showed goodwill ... but unfortunately because Uncle Sam is not playing ball we can’t (refinance)',” said Jan Dehn, Head of Research at Ashmore Investment Management, who did not attend the meeting.  “I‘m not hugely surprised nothing’s come out of that meeting.”

Surprisingly, and ignoring the sheer chaos of recent events, markets remain optimistic that Venezuela will continue to service its debts despite Friday's notice of involuntary default by bond trustee Wilmginton Trust; bulls were noting that Caracas has made close to $2 billion in payments in the past two weeks, albeit delayed. Somehow they extrapolated that this state would continue indefinitely.

In any case, the market appears placated for now: bond prices were up across the board on Monday, with the benchmark 2022 notes issued by state oil firm PDVSA rising 3.3 percentage points. Meamwhile, nearly $300 million in late interest payments on three bonds - PDVSA 2027, Venezuela 2019 and Venezuela 2024 - was also due on Monday after 30-day grace periods ended. But bondholders appeared unconcerned at the delay, which was due in part to increased bank vigilance of Venezuela transactions.

“My expectation is that the coupon payments will come through as well,” said Ashomer's Dehn.  “We know that these delays exist and why they exist.”

Meanwhile, for Maduro the choice is simple: keep paying creditors and preserve some minute, if irrelevant, access to capital markets, or conserve the cash and feed the starving domestic population. The sight of poor Venezuelans eating from garbage bags has become a symbol of Venezuela's socialist decay. It contrasts sharply with the era of Chavez, when high oil prices helped fuel state spending.

According to Reuters, halting debt service would free up an additional $1.6 billion in hard currency by the end of the year. Those resources could be used to improve supplies of staple goods as Maduro heads into a presidential election expected for 2018. But the strategy could backfire if met with aggressive lawsuits. A default by PDVSA, which issued about half of the country’s outstanding bonds, could ensnare the company’s foreign assets such as refineries in legal battles - potentially crimping export revenue.

Which is why when choosing between keeping its creditors happy or feeding its people, Maduro will always pick the former...

* * *

... Unless, of course, the decision is made for it: late on Monday evening, S&P announced it was lowering Venezuela's credit rating from CC to Selective Default, or SD. Highlights below:

Venezuela Long-Term Foreign Currency Rating Lowered To 'SD'

  • Venezuela failed to make $200 million in coupon payments for its global bonds due 2019 and 2024 within the 30-calendar-day grace period.
  • In line with our criteria for timeliness of payments, we are lowering the issue ratings on these bonds to 'D' from 'CC' and the long-term foreign currency sovereign credit rating on Venezuela to 'SD' from 'CC'.
  • The local currency sovereign credit ratings on Venezuela remain on CreditWatch with negative implications, reflecting our view that the sovereign could again miss a payment on its outstanding debt obligations or advance a distressed debt exchange operation, equivalent to default, within the next three months.

RATING ACTION

On Nov. 13, 2017, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long- and short-term foreign currency sovereign credit ratings on the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela to 'SD/D' from 'CC/C'. The long- and short-term local currency sovereign credit ratings remain at 'CCC-/C' and are still on CreditWatch with negative implications. At the same time, we lowered our issue ratings on Venezuela's global bonds due 2019 and 2024 to 'D' from 'CC'. Our issue ratings on the remainder of Venezuela's foreign currency senior unsecured debt remain at 'CC'. Finally, we affirmed our transfer and convertibility assessment on the sovereign at 'CC'.

CREDITWATCH

Our CreditWatch negative reflects our opinion that there is a one-in-two chance that Venezuela could default again within the next three months. We could lower specific issue ratings to default ('D') if Venezuela doesn't make its overdue coupon payments before the stated grace period expires, or upon the execution of the announced debt restructuring.

If the sovereign cures its default on the overdue coupon payments and remains timely on other coupon payments before the restructuring debt operation is completed, we would raise our long-term foreign currency sovereign issuer credit and issue ratings to 'CC'.

If any potential restructuring operation is completed, we would lower all of our foreign currency ratings on Venezuela to default and subsequently raise them to the 'CCC' or 'B' category.

RATIONALE

On Nov. 12, 30 calendar days had passed since two coupon payments were due, and Venezuela had not paid the $200 million due to bondholders (or the bondholders had not received funds by that date). In accordance with our criteria, "Methodology: Timeliness of Payments: Grace Periods, Guarantees, And Use of 'D' And 'SD' Ratings," we have lowered two issue ratings to 'D' (default), and we lowered the long-term foreign currency sovereign credit rating to 'SD' (selective default).

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BandGap's picture

Bet they all felt a lot better after calling Trump names. That's what counts.

 

NoDecaf's picture

they should have served chocolate cake

jcaz's picture

....Aaaaand it's gone...

nmewn's picture

TWO SCOOPS OF VANILLA COVEFE!

/////

Wut...have I offended a cisgendered or something?

Well sorry, madam ;-)

Déjà view's picture

S&P way behind curve...Weiss not 'Whitewashing'...

Weiss Ratings Gives US Government Grade of ‘C’ for Sovereign Debt

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)–Weiss Ratings, a small, independent credit-ratings agency, has carried the debate over the U.S. government’s triple-A credit rating several steps farther than the big Wall Street ratings agencies–consigning the world’s largest economy to near junk-bond status on Thursday
“Weiss Ratings Says US Credit Rating Already Near Junk” Dow Jones Newswires 28 Apr. 2011
While Standard & Poor’s gained headlines for putting U.S. debt on a watch list for a possible downgrade, Weiss Ratings says the nation is already below average among 47 nations. The Jupiter-based ratings service, which is known for giving opinions on a variety of investments, has ventured into the field of sovereign debt. It gives the U.S. a rating of C (fair), and ranked it 33rd among 47 nations.

http://cambridgestrategicpartners.org/2015/06/11/weiss-ratings-gives-us-...

fx's picture

I am no fan of Maduro, but he is actually right in this regard. It is laughable to the hilt that the USA would determine  who is eligible to negotiate for the sovereign country of Venezuela. Of course they blacklisted those people precisely to make any negotiations more difficult.

In addition it is reported that Citigroup delayed transfer of payments made by Venezuela for bond cupons  "due to intense compliance checks". Another obstruction move by the USA to push venezuela into default.

has anyone ever looked into the "opposition"? Their leading figures are mostly corrupt, criminal puppets of the USA. Anyone remember the hailed former general attorney who fled the country after madura fired her? well , that women idly watched for years and years while corrupt mafia structures leeched the coffers of the government. One of the reasons madura finally fired her, besides her growing political opposition to him. Of course, that issue is conveniently omitted - it would blur the picture of a "courageous woman resisting the evil maduro".

Does it occur to anyone how remarkable it is that madura is still in power and still seems to enjoy the support of anywwhere of 40-50 % of the population? even after all the hardships they went through? And he is certainly not a charismatic guy! Hey, still, the guy is  more popular at home than the tweeter in chief in D.C., who can't get anything done except more war and giving it aplenty to the non-drained swamp!

Venzuelans know how devastating life was under the rule of US puppet governments before Chavez took mover. They face a really bad choice nowadays between that former evil (pest) and the current state of affairs (cholera).

IH8OBAMA's picture

You've got to love how well socialism works.

 

SHEEPFUKKER's picture

Not much different in the land of the fee, except the military/police state is used to keep the dream alive.

jmack's picture

 If Maduro had any sense, he would ask Trump for advice on how to screw his creditors.

TeamDepends's picture

Yo Bernie, weren't you a VZ fanboi?

nmewn's picture

Him and Sean Penn, Danny Glover and every other noticably silent progressive useful idiot on the planet.

But I have to say, whatsamatter with a little "chaos" every now & then? ;-)

TeamDepends's picture

Ah yes, Spiccoli.  Did anyone ever actually ask him his opinion on politics?

nmewn's picture

Fast Times baby!...lol.

serotonindumptruck's picture

Spicolli is taking another bong hit, while he bangs on his head with the telephone, as he tries to convince everyone that his hollow, coconut-sounding cranium is actually his head.

chunga's picture

Back when Greece defaulting was all the rage there was all sorts of talk about the doom that would result if CDS was triggered.

Then if I remember right that was just not talked about anymore and the topic vanished down the mystery hole.

nmewn's picture

Its almost like the Rolling Stone offering itself up for sale after a big "expose" on campus rape or Obama's Peace Prize before unleashing murder and chaos in Libya & Syria or "Russian collusion" or fucking...EBOLA!...ain't it?!

And then...nothing.

Simply...gone.

Hey! Trump overfed the goldfish! ;-)

chunga's picture

I'm kinda glad I don't understand a lot of this shit, as far as I'm concerned most of it is just pure solid fraud.

VZ58's picture

Don't need to understand much other than that socialism always ends up like this and people starve, then die, while the rich walk away.

chunga's picture

Yeah, not sure what "ism" US falls under these days. The reason US doesn't run out of "other people's money" is due to reserve status, the ability to conjure $$$ at will and use that $$$ to destroy countries that resist it's reserve status.

TeamDepends's picture

Modern Rolling Stone Album Review:  We give Bruce Springsteen's new disc, Bernie Or Die In The USA, five stars because The Boss is teh kind of guy who would've held President Obama's peepee for any reason if The One needed help urinating into the urinal.

Joe Mama 3's picture

now nigga, thats almost even too much fo fight club, the idea that ole brucie could do something like that, in Tahiti, on obama's yacht, with michael er michelle at his side dick in hand ...................  shivers 

Maximeme Q's picture

Venezuelan chocolates and coffee!

I don't want to hear how this guy got screwed.

ali-ali-al-qomfri's picture

VZ needs Bikini-coin, use some 'natural' resources, get back in the game.

Dun_Dulind's picture

That's what they get for embracing Bolivarian Socialism.

Ackshually, they should have just stuck with the generic brand because it's so much better or so I'm told.

peddling-fiction's picture

Bolivia is also following Bolivarian Socialism, and is growing at nearly 5% annually (including this year).

<-- facts seem to cause butthurt <chuckle>

As far as growth is concerned in Bolivia, the right has never done this well. Not even close.

They owe less than 40% of GDP.

besnook's picture

ecuador is also part of the bolivarian revolution and also have very healthy growth not seen under usa backed rulers. maduro also just won regional elections in a landslide because the people know the usa is the real enemy and the cause of venzuela's problems.

Joe Mama 3's picture

When yo a white pimp posted up in the only hotel wit air conditioning in cucuta colombia the venezuelan hoes come a runnin !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Secret Weapon's picture

Your legs must be tired from running.

haruspicio's picture

Default and be done with it. The poor will support Maduro and they vastly outnumber the corrupt elite. Cosy up to Russia, invite them to open a military base in Venezuela and offer them a piece of PDVSA. Cosy up to the Chinese, offer them a piece of PDVSA to raise cash and offer them a military base. Start a war with Colombia...do anything but don't pay these fucking vultures.

Nunny's picture

the 'poor' are starving.  Sadly they belive that a dictator will save them.

VZ58's picture

"The poor will support Maduro..."

 

Yeah, that's been working out so well...

Nunny's picture

Is there a bridge somewhere in VZ that we can sell to someone?   There's gotta be a sucker out their somewhere.

lasvegaspersona's picture

SOLUTION

In the future a $100 bond (short term) only sells for $10. Thart way when buyers get 10 cents on the dollar they are fully repaid.

Yellow_Snow's picture

Maybe those fools who bought sh$t bonds at super low interest rates start to see some REALITY

Joe Mama 3's picture

one of the most dynamic borders in latin america is the one at cucuta colombia. 

Francis Marx's picture

They acted like they were going to pay. Who believed them?

San Pedro's picture

Quick...send Sean Penn there to fix this socialist quagmire.    

just the tip's picture

Quick...send Sean Penn there.

FIFY

serotonindumptruck's picture

Is this like when a renter tells the landlord that they only have $200 for rent, when their rent is actually $800?

peddling-fiction's picture

Yeah, but they own the whole city below you (largest oil reserves).

They have other bills to pay, but because you have been a dick, take a ticket, and wait quietly in line.

serotonindumptruck's picture

Good point.

Venezuelan bond holders will accept whatever the dead-beat renter can afford...and they better like it cuz there is no viable legal recourse for them to recoup their investments.

youarelost's picture

Feel the fucking Bern !

nmewn's picture

Send in Obama's "retired" Secret Service agents to guard the Wood Sprite of Chappaqua while she does a little impromptu karaoke at the local cantina for the cameras. 

Now thats entertainment! ;-)

pparalegal's picture

When other peoples money runs out.

youngman's picture

Hey..but at least they had a meeting...so they can say ther were doing something...wasting time in Socialism is number one...

TeraByte's picture

Has anybody an idea, what is a total nominal value of Venezuelan cds. Somebody, who hasn´t money, may have to answer to his shout.

VZ58's picture

There was no offer, no terms, no strategy, nothing,

Holy sh*t. What do these morons expect? This is your brain. This is your brain on socialism. 

What the fu*k did they expect? Do they think there is something different THIS time?