The Unbearable Slowness Of Fourth Turnings, Part 2

Tyler Durden's picture

Authored by Jim Quinn via The Burning Platform blog,

In Part 1 of this article I provided the background regarding the phases of Fourth Turnings and where we stand nine years into this period of crisis. I will now ponder what could happen during the remainder of this Fourth Turning.

“History offers no guarantees. Obviously, things could go horribly wrong – the possibilities ranging from a nuclear exchange to incurable plagues, from terrorist anarchy to high-tech dictatorship. We should not assume that Providence will always exempt our nation from the irreversible tragedies that have overtaken so many others: not just temporary hardship, but debasement and total ruin. Losing in the next Fourth Turning could mean something incomparably worse. It could mean a lasting defeat from which our national innocence – perhaps even our nation – might never recover.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

The most important point to comprehend is the death of the existing social order always occurs during the course of a Fourth Turning. Thus far, those constituting the Deep State hierarchy have fended off their demise. They are utilizing every tool at their disposal to retain their wealth, power and control. As their mass media propaganda machine falters, they have redoubled their rigging of financial markets to promote a narrative of economic recovery, while further enriching themselves and their cronies.

It is clear they have reached the peak of financial manipulation, money printing, and artificial interest rate suppression. The narrative is faltering. Their last and final option to retain power is war. As their “everything bubble” (stocks, bonds, real estate) inevitably implodes, civil and/or global military conflict will be utilized to distract the populace from their Deep State domestic disasters.

The time for compromise is long past. There are no moderates left in the political spectrum. The mood of the country is clearly trending towards conflict. Trump, as the grey champion of this Fourth Turning, has proven to be a lightning rod of hate. He infuriates his political opponents, the left wing media, many in his own party, foreign leaders, billionaires and most worrisome to his well-being – the shadowy surveillance state intel operatives.

His own FBI and CIA have been subverting his presidency and attempting to initiate his impeachment or as a last resort – coup. After running a campaign championing a reduction in foreign military intervention in the Middle East, reducing commitments to NATO and increasing cooperation with Russia, it appears Trump has been taken into a room and told the military industrial complex calls the shots. Trump has clearly made a self-preservation decision to avoid being JFK’d.

The possibility of global catastrophe is not taken seriously by the vast majority of Americans. It’s been over seventy years since the last global conflict and most of the people who experienced the horror are dead. We’ve forgotten the past and are condemned to relive it, just as we do every eighty or so years. The lack of volatility in financial markets portends drastic levels of volatility as the perception markets can’t fall has lured Wall Street 30 something MBAs and the investor class into a sense of invincibility.

Geopolitical tensions have been rising dramatically over the last few years, with religious extremism, oil, petro-dollar, historical rivalries and nationalism driving the world towards conflict. These extreme economic and geopolitical stresses are coinciding along the same timeline and will erupt simultaneously, catalyzing the climactic half of this Fourth Turning.

“The risk of catastrophe will be very high. The nation could erupt into insurrection or civil violence, crack up geographically, or succumb to authoritarian rule. If there is a war, it is likely to be one of maximum risk and effort – in other words, a total war. Every Fourth Turning has registered an upward ratchet in the technology of destruction, and in mankind’s willingness to use it.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

With the House of Saud descending into madness as religious zealots, kings, princes, and foreign infiltrators vie for control of their depleting oil riches, and tens of billions in high tech weaponry provided by American arms dealers, a Middle East conflagration is a certainty. Iran has been winning the proxy wars in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. Saudi Arabia and Israel are determined to stop Iran’s expansion at any cost.

Mixing religious extremism, oil riches, gas pipelines, opium, egotistical dictators, nuclear bombs, hatred and territorial ambitions into the deepening militaristic global mood change is destined to spark a chain reaction of unintended consequences and unyielding responses. The next Middle East war will not be a proxy war. It will be a fight to the death.

You need a scorecard to figure out the alliances, opponents and wildcards.

Iran appears to be aligned with Iraq, Qatar, Syria, Hezbollah, Yemen, and Russia.

 

Saudi Arabia appears to be aligned with Israel, UAE, and the United States.

 

Various factions, who include Turkey, ISIS, Al Qaeda, and the Kurds, are fighting one or more of these parties.

 

In many cases the enemy of my enemy is my friend applies.

Peace and compromise are out of the question at this point.

It’s just a matter of who pulls the trigger to kick off the fireworks. It looks like Saudi Arabia is willing to gamble everything on a final showdown with Iran. Once the shooting starts and the U.S. and Russia are sucked in, all bets are off on what happens next. Diplomacy will not be an option.

This scenario presumes a Korean conflict doesn’t happen first. With reckless actions on the part of Kim Jung Un and reckless rhetoric from both sides, the odds of a Korean conflict are the highest since the 1950s. With three carrier groups sitting off the Korean coastline, just one provocative act or mistake could unleash a fusillade from both sides, killing hundreds of thousands in a matter of days. Global treaties, alliances and economic realities are pushing global powers in unforeseen directions, just as this Fourth Turning enters its most dangerous phase. Human failings are the constant throughout history. But, human failings resulted in 50,000 deaths during the American Revolution Crisis. They could result in hundreds of millions of deaths during this Crisis.

The U.S. and Europe’s provocative actions with NATO forces surrounding Russia, the ongoing Ukraine civil war, the Syrian civil war, and false accusations of rigging the U.S. presidential election have pushed Russia into a closer alliance with China. Saudi Arabia has also strengthened ties with China, as the debt financed shale oil boom has lessened U.S. purchases of OPEC oil.

The EU is falling apart, as debt creation has failed to revive economies, governments are bankrupt, Muslim hordes destroy their social fabric, and a revolutionary spirit is in the air. Germany, France, Sweden and most of Europe have signed their own death warrant by allowing their countries to be invaded by millions of young Muslim men intent on destroying their way of life. Global disorder is expanding exponentially and is surely leading towards war.

War will either be the trigger for the forthcoming financial crash or a direct result of the forthcoming financial crash.

The core elements of this Fourth Turning (debt, civic decay, global disorder) are going to juxtapose and connect, accelerating into a chain reaction of chaos, civil uprising, global war, mass casualties, the fall of empires, and ultimately the destruction of the existing social order (aka Deep State).

When Americans see their wealth vaporized for the 3rd time in less than two decades by the same criminal bankers and corrupt politicians, they will not forgive, forget and bail them out again. They will seek out the guilty and make them pay through street justice. The fraudulent Deep State controlled scheme is beyond redemption and must be destroyed in order for a Constitution based free market system to be reintroduced. The result could also be dictatorship or worse. The outcomes will be determined by the actions we take as citizens.

With a debt inundated global economy already slowing; panicked central bankers beginning to take their foot off the accelerator; massively overvalued stock, bond and real estate markets; consumers in debt up to their eyeballs; stagnant wages; rising inflation; currency and trade wars heating up; deficits rising again; and gridlocked legislative bodies, the onset of war in the Middle East would cause oil prices to skyrocket and trigger the stock market collapse 3.0.

At this point, even the slightest hint of wage inflation causing interest rates to rise even modestly would prompt a market meltdown. The perfect storm is headed our way. The triple threats of debt, civic decay and global disorder cannot be avoided. We can’t defy the chaos set in motion by the cyclical nature of history. The seasons cannot be reversed, so we must brace ourselves for the oncoming storms.

“The future’s uncertain and the end is always near.”Jim Morrison

“No one here gets out alive.”Jim Morrison

There are no guarantees or certainties regarding what happens over the remaining decade or so of this Fourth Turning. Don’t believe God will exempt our empire from the tragedies that have befallen past empires. Debasement and total ruin are not inconsequential possibilities. Hubris, arrogance, decadence, and debt have devastated previous global empires and are present today in copious quantities as the American Empire enters its critical threshold of national survival. There are a myriad of internal and external competing forces which threaten both the status quo and very existence of our nation.

There will be moments of extreme danger and severe threats in the coming years. I do not consider the Russian people or the Chinese people my enemies, but my government will attempt to convince us to go to war against them, in order to maintain their empire. Human nature has not changed over the course of history, but the technological advancements in warfare have placed the ability to obliterate the planet into the hands of weak minded malevolent men, whose egotism and thirst for power know no bounds. Human flaws and frailties could endanger the world and its inhabitants. Do you trust the leadership of your country to do what’s in your best interest?

I do not trust my government. I do not trust the puppet politician front men for the Deep State. I do not trust the mega-corporations who dominate our economy. I do not trust central bankers and their Wall Street owners. I do not trust the fake news corporate media. I do not trust the military industrial complex. I do not trust the leaders of organized religion.

I trust my own instincts, reasoning ability, and critical thinking skills. I trust my immediate family members. I trust some of my neighbors. I trust more of people I’ve met through my blog than I’ve met face to face. I trust normal people living normal lives across this once great country. I trust the people who distrust the people and things I distrust. As events spiral out of control, we will need to pick and choose our friends carefully.

If or when the government attempts to force my three sons into a war on behalf of the vested interests to retain their wealth and power, I will resist with every ounce of strength in my aging body. They will not become cannon fodder for the Deep State. We don’t know the events and path which will drive the remainder of this crisis, but we do know our choices will matter.

This is no time for apathy and complacency. For those who grasp generational theory and the cycles of history, the seemingly unbearable slowness of this Fourth Turning is actually a blessing. The slowness allows more time to prepare. If you haven’t prepared for the coming saecular winter, time is growing short. The skies are darkening. Our rendezvous with destiny awaits.

 “Reflect on what happens when a terrible winter blizzard strikes. You hear the weather warning but probably fail to act on it. The sky darkens. Then the storm hits with full fury, and the air is a howling whiteness. One by one, your links to the machine age break down. Electricity flickers out, cutting off the TV. Batteries fade, cutting off the radio. Phones go dead. Roads become impossible, and cars get stuck. Food supplies dwindle.

Day to day vestiges of modern civilization – bank machines, mutual funds, mass retailers, computers, satellites, airplanes, governments – all recede into irrelevance. Picture yourself and your loved ones in the midst of a howling blizzard that lasts several years. Think about what you would need, who could help you, and why your fate might matter to anybody other than yourself. That is how to plan for a saecular winter.

Don’t think you can escape the Fourth Turning. History warns that a Crisis will reshape the basic social and economic environment that you now take for granted.” – Strauss & Howe The Fourth Turning

 

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serotonindumptruck's picture

So it's going to be a mix of internecine civil war, Western economic collapse, and global thermonuclear war?

serotonindumptruck's picture

No obsession.

Just an observation of history and human nature.

Captain Chlamydia's picture

Human nature? Testosteron is what is killing us. 

You know, the thing that drives monkeys to the top of the rock, just to be boss.

TheRunningMan's picture

You look around at some of today's young men, particularly in the cities...not seeing much, if any, testosterone!  Not good.

 

it aint paranoia if they really are out too harm you's picture

Yeah, because Hillary would be soooo much better. Or maybe you were being sarcastic...

JRobby's picture

MGTOW is a 3 week troll sent in to clog the comments exchange. Ignore.

Gorgeous's picture

Ie., a perfect topic for ZH to amp up the doom.  On a scale of 1-10, this is an 11.

"“The risk of catastrophe will be very high."  ...is all that the doom you need for the day.

aardvarkk's picture

Yeah, plus right at the height of it, Yellowstone will pop off and finish everything off for good.

Cautiously Pessimistic's picture

Crap....I am beginning to wonder if maybe we are in the Fifth Turning.  The batshit crazy meter is pegged out at 10.

MGTOW_MONERO_XMR's picture

You best be prepared before it expires it happens bitches!

shankster's picture

Turning of the worm.

RagaMuffin's picture

Does Quinn pay a royalty to Strauss and Howe or is it the other way around?     ;-)

shankster's picture

Let the few remaining Americans flee this 3rd world sanctuary hell-hole > Miami < and then nuke it.

Crazy Or Not's picture

You're refering to Bush purchases in Paraguay?

 

Mike Masr's picture

I am Russian Orthodox so my spiritual leader is Kirill the Patriarch of Moscow.

I do trust him!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vpe5oOjfgXk

 

Clock Crasher's picture

Not this shit again.  Its not slow.  Its just not happening.  

All this shit is science fiction at this point.  

(changing my name to Captain Capitulation) 

ReturnOfDaMac's picture

Ding! Ding! Ding!  We have a winner, "Captain Capitulation".  Face it, nothing is gonna happen but the easy money, low interests rates, resulting in stawk buybacks will continue.  More slow melt-up.  Maybe a tough-tweet ... or two.  Nothing to see here move along, and BTFD along the way.

Clock Crasher's picture

Someone get this guy blue pills, quick.  Major buzz kill dude, not cool. 

Cloud9.5's picture

Shut down the grid either by a high altitude nuke, solar flare, or an act of terrorism and the storm starts.  It is not the 1,000 people in my rural county who are prepared that scare me.  It is the 99,000 who are not prepared that scare the hell out of me.  If you do not think your neighbor will shoot you for a can of beans when his kids are starving, you are naive.

Some of the old families have been talking about this for years.  There is a loose plan to try and protect a ranch and a hog farm.  If that is not possible then the intent is to try and hide in the scrub until the storm passes.

Civilization has never been more fragile than it is at this moment.   The collapse of the Roman Empire has nothing on this.  Their aqueducts ran on gravity.  Food and fuel was hauled in by oxcart.  Nobody could turn out the lights on ancient Rome.  A tree branch, a crazy squirrel or a minor solar storm can shut down a single city twice the size of ancient Rome for a day.  Civil war could shut it down for years.  When the lights go out nothing works for long.  Prepare accordingly.

It is a mistake not to assume that enemies of the Republic both foreign and domestic have not gamed this out.

 

 

 

Crazy Or Not's picture

They haven't just been talking about it...

Here's one fortress home for you
https://www.google.es/maps/@54.1001068,-4.5984095,465m/data=!3m1!1e3?hl=en

Notice proximity to airport, and beach. 

dogballs's picture

A global war is more predictable and inevitable than the next big earthquake in California.

east of eden's picture

Yep. Ugly Americanism in all it's glory. Someone will shoot you because they are hungry. Duh.

So share you fucking buffoon, share.

it aint paranoia if they really are out too harm you's picture

A rural county with a population of 1000 sounds about right.  That and 1 person per 1000 acres.

JRobby's picture

Read the entire post. Develop some reading comprehension.

Wexx's picture

This is the master plan of the adversary. The complete destruction of mankind. When I say destruction, I mean not only the death of billions of people, but the true destruction of the soul. I'm ready and prepared for the next life. Are you?

east of eden's picture

Depends on whether and when my spirit guides are available.

Revelation Unfolding's picture

"Look around you, Ellen! We're at the threshold of hell!"

-Clark Griswold

ToSoft4Truth's picture

Quick question - when and what were the markers for the Third Turning?  Even my 85 year old uncles says the U.S. has been at war his entire life. 

 

When was the Second Turning??  What were the markers?? 

0hedgehog's picture

"All wars are banker wars!"

 

(Mike Rivero)

Clock Crasher's picture

(devils advocate)

America is indestructible.  1,2,5,10,20 Trillion in debt?  Bring it.  corporate and private debt three times that size?  Who cares.  We can rule out nuclear war, the Illuminati need us around to torture.  Financial collapse?  not happening- derivatives are way off their highs and can be quickly cranked back up again to dampen any protest in the financial markets and bitcoin and the comex siphoned any and all strength from the only threat to the debt paradigm, gold.  Threat- nullified. 

Western civilizations only loss is Europe.  And Europe's loss is Americas gain.  That's why our markets are dominating.  Who wants to put your money in a about to be bloody islamic revolution take over of already corrupt to the bone EU states?  Thought so.  

No no.. here is what is going to happen.  nothing terribly exciting.  More truth bombs met with inaction.  Wake up it's Ground Hog's Day. 

konadog's picture

They need a few of us around. If the Rothschild-Bush-Rockefeller war banking criminals murdered a billion or two, believe me, they wouldn't care.

Mr.Danglemeat's picture

(Devils Advocate?) Funny but, I don't remember signing any retainer with you, just give me a number and I'll have one faxed over to you ASAP. Hop right to it and we can have un-born babys for supper. Love, S.Mnuchin

Sir SpeaksALot's picture

although USA deserves some pain for what they have done to the world,

I personally think the doom can be avoided thanks to cryptocurrency revolution.

Cryptos bring back the trust, which is what is being missed the most in the economy.

move wealth to cryptocurrency realm, and no more printing fiat.

and we will regain the needed balance.

Clock Crasher's picture

Agreed.  What is happening "very slowly" is free market alternatives to doom.  Crypto currencies and Goldmoney are two that come to mind.  We don't need this human civilization collapse to try a restart of a just world.  It's going to quietly go away on it's own as one disruptive technology after another solves one problem after another.  

America can dominate on a dime.  Military power is on lock down.  The only thing that needs fixing is to discharge the debt, restructure the DOJ and sound money and put the President underground where he can not be assissinated (communicate via halogram).  America is rich with natural resources, tourism oportunities and history of free market.  

east of eden's picture

Oh come on. You have hundreds of millions of people that are either homeless or can't feed themselves.

Do you really expect me to buy your fucking american bullshit, again? I don't think so.

it aint paranoia if they really are out too harm you's picture

They'll die off first 30 days. Just curious, do you think Antifa and all the libs/ progs in the big city are ignorant to the fact that about 100 trained men a city would shut down must big city's food, electricity, water?

When Communists took over the land in Russia and Ukraine, were the rural residents armed? Had the army trained a large percentage of the rural residents before they returned them to civilian life? Between city and suburb dwellers and country folk, who is capable and actively participating in live sniper games, otherwise known as deer hunting?

moorewasthebestbond's picture

Cryptos?

 

Online shackles are cheaper than real world shackles I guess.

Koba the Dread's picture

Idiot! The article is about a world in which there is no more internet. The article is about a world in which there is no electricity. How do you use cryptocurrencies in that world?