House Set To Pass GOP Tax-Reform This Afternoon

Tyler Durden's picture

Last night, Sen. Ron Johnson surprised the GOP Senate leadership by coming out against the republican tax plan "in its current form", the latest sign that the Republican push to pass comprehensive tax reform by New Year’s will struggle in the Senate. Still, that won’t stop the more Trump-friendly House of Representatives from passing their version of the bill, which they’re expected to do this afternoon following a meeting with the president.

While the vote totals are expected to be tight, House Speaker Paul Ryan and Ways and Means Chairman Kevin Brady both said the bill will likely pass, and they wouldn't be pushing for a vote unless they had it in the bag. President Trump will visit Capitol Hill ahead of the vote to rally support, but, according to the Hill, it appears there will be little need to twist arms. All three of the House’s major Republican factions have given the bill the green light.

Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) and fellow leaders have been in a buoyant mood all week, signaling they have the 217 votes needed to pass the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.

And the days leading up to the vote have been relatively drama-free, as the three main House GOP factions - the far-right Freedom Caucus, conservative Republican Study Committee and moderate Tuesday Group - have either backed the bill or stayed on the sidelines.

Already, House Republicans are heralding the accomplishment as a sign that the Republicans can still get it done in Congress.

“It’s more than just a tax bill. It will show that Republicans can get things done,” said Rep. Dennis Ross (R-Fla.), a senior member of House Majority Whip Steve Scalise’s (R-La.) vote-counting operation.

In what may have helped House leaders, Trump took a step back in the process of whipping up votes (he was conveniently touring Asia when most of the heavy lifting was being done). And though Republicans credit him with “remaining engaged” with the process, some fear that he could veer off message in this afternoon’s pep talk and somehow disrupt the carefully assembled Republican coalition.

The big tax-reform vote will allow Republicans to recapture the headlines in a week that has been dominated by allegations of sexual misconduct made against Alabama GOP Senate candidate Roy Moore.

 

But there’s also a small concern among some Republicans that Trump could veer off message during his visit to the Capitol and somehow disrupt the coalition for the tax bill that GOP leaders have so carefully assembled.

Republicans – having learned from their failure to repeal Obamacare which also passed the House relatively easily – will take care not to gloat too much, as things can always unravel in the Senate.

That Senate collapse is part of the reason GOP lawmakers aren’t expecting to take a victory lap in the White House Rose Garden on Thursday like they did after the House’s successful ObamaCare repeal vote. They don’t want to be seen as celebrating prematurely before Congress can send a final tax package to Trump’s desk.

In the long run, a legislative victory in the House won’t have much impact on the bill’s long-term chances of passing, because the risk is primarily centered in the upper chamber. Furthermore, the Senate and House tax plans must eventually be reconciled and merged into a final plan that can pass both chambers before it goes to Trump to sign into law. But to get to that point, the Senate first needs to pass its own version of the bill. Johnson is a confirmed ‘No’ - his opposition stemming from his view that the bill unfairly benefits corporations over other pass-through entities like S-Corps and LLCs – but as many as seven other senators have hinted that they’re dissatisfied with the bill as it stands.

In summary, passing the House version of the plan is the easy part. House Ways and Means Chairman Kevin Brady and Speaker Paul Ryan only needed to create a sop that would win over enough blue-state Republicans (rejecting the mortgage deduction but preserving a scaled-back version of the SALT deduction), the only intransigent faction in the Trump-friendly House.

In the Senate, the political calculus is much more complex. And with such a slim majority, Republicans can only afford to lose two votes to bring in Vice President Mike Pence for the tiebreaker.

Given the Trump administration’s legislative record to date, there’s still a chance the bill could fail in a surprise upset (there is precedent for that, of course). If that happens, the chances of passing the tax plan by year end will fall to virtually nothing.

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totenkopf88's picture

This plan does not help the white working class nitwits that were conned into putting Orange Julius in the White House.

JoseyWalesTheOutlaw's picture

you miss your magic nigger? Now that was a guy that really helped the working class in his 8 years...

Jack McGriff's picture

Taxes are only for white people in order to subsidize niggers, illegal immigrants, and interest payments to Jews.  

SelfGov's picture

You're fucked for having that avatar and writing such bullshit at the same time.

ThisIsMadness's picture

All the white working class nitwits understand the morons in the Senate and the House are not on our side. They are not on your side either.

FreeShitter's picture

The white working class are the new niggers...

ReturnOfDaMac's picture

Welcome to the plantation bitchez, now pick cotton.

IridiumRebel's picture

Dow One Million Bitchez

Falconsixone's picture

If they're for it I'm against it.

lil dirtball's picture

> its path forward in the Senate is much more complex

Of course it is. Unless it's something they want that's good for them and their buddies - like the Patriot act and the NDAA. No problems there.

Red and Blue make Purple, peasant.

buzzsaw99's picture

yeah, they can all agree when it comes to fucking over the middle class.

lil dirtball's picture

> fucking over the middle class

This is a meme. I won't argue that the middle class has taken a shellacking over the last ten years, but it's really not limited to this group. It's about (((them))) and 'not' them. The inner party v. proles (they did that in a fictional book so it looks fictional - a favorite trick of theirs - nothing is further from the truth).

Just watch - even if this 'reform' is passed, (((they))) make out like the bandits that they are and everyone else eventually gets fucked.

But whiteconservativeman will keep on keepin' on regardless, the stubborn stoics that they are, living on photosynthesis from the glow of their TV and GMO snack items.

To Hell In A Handbasket's picture

It's not even too little, too late. It is nothing, too late. lol. 

Hands out in anticipation for Jam tomorrow, but never Jam today. Just call a spade a spade and see Orange Jesus for exactly what I said he was 2 ears ago.

Shares at an all time high, while during the election Orange Jesus, called it a bubble. Tax cuts for his friends and loop holes closed for the middle classes and poor. 

MAGA that Trumpettes.

you_are_cleared_hot's picture

Am I the only one who could not give a shite?? I am so done with Ds and Rs. Nuke it all and start over!

JoseyWalesTheOutlaw's picture

This bill can join the other 300 on the dirty floor at the useless GD Senate.  Mitch and his band of fuking globalist couldn't pass gas. 

 

Looks like John Coryn is getting paid well by the globalist. 

E.F. Mutton's picture

Welcome back my friends, to the show that never ends...

lester1's picture

The bond market will xplode if this tax plan passes.

Mimir's picture

Which would be a sure sign, that the plan is not in the interest of Trump's core voters - although Trump would celebrate it with an avalanche of Twitters.

econcal's picture

As it should.  Long bonds don't like growth which causes a form of inflation.  A growing economy is always the enemy of bonds...but that doesn't mean its a bad thing at all.  However, the impact will be muted compared to what it would normally be.  This is due to the fact that the Fed is still purchasing a ton of RMBS and Treasurys and will continue to do so regardless of market forces.  Also, every major bank is FORCED to buy RMBS and Treasuries and hold them to pass the stress tests.  So the Fed has effetively created a HUGE amount of artificial demand.  So rates will rise but not at the accelerated pace that the should. 

Pitty we don't have a true open market any longer.  Rising rates causes change in behavior and that change is needed.

GlassHouse101's picture

I give it a 10% chance of passing House & Senate. These Republicans are actually Democrats.

To Hell In A Handbasket's picture

"These Republicans are actually Democrats

Are you just coming to the conclusion it is really a 1 party state? I was anti-Bill Clinton. I was anti-Dubbya. I was anti-Obama and anti-Trump. The fake 2 party stae of Dems and GOP were just 2 bumcheeks, belonging to the same arsehole. All this Trump will save us, MAGA, he is for the fly-over-states bullshit, was just that. BULLSHIT! In over 2 years on ZH, my stance on Trump has been the same and 99% of my predictions on him, have come true.

Just be a student of history to predict how a POTUS will behave. Every single one of them post JFK, has failed to deliver their mandate, or even come close to it. Therefore telling his support base Trump won't deliver shit, was not hard, neither did it take deep and thorough analysis. Just a look at history of politicians across the western world in the last 47 years. 

That is a massive sample and the conclusions are clear. They tell you what you want to hear, they promise the world, they deliver nothing, break most of their campaign promises, legislate more tax cuts for the top 1%, create more tax loop holes for the top 10% to exploit and ride off into the sunset richer after a term in office, than when they arrived.

This fake 2 party system must be torn down and completely replaced. You must even vote for candidates who you despise, just to crash the system quicker. Our generation is lost. This is about sacrificing ourselves for the sake of our children and grand children. Forget about us, for at least 20 years. My generation and the one above caused this mess. So we have to clean it up on our watch and hand it over in just as good a state as we inherited it.

silverer's picture

The power structure is such that any president now has a marginal effect for real change. Same with the governors of the states. The governor has discretionary control over maybe 1% of the spending. Everything else is locked in from the previous criminal administrations.

PhiBetaZappa's picture

"My generation and the one above caused this mess"

Nope, the generation that gave us the Fed caused this mess and enabled the rampant corruption that's destroying the country.

Otherwise, I agree.

To Hell In A Handbasket's picture

The 1913 generation had less democratic say in theory and not all the information at hand like we do. Their is no worse sin than to be armed with knowledge and the power to change things, but choose to do nothing with it. At least they never got to witness the errors and had the option to change it.

My generation has witnessed.experienced and have a documented account of FED behaviour and the horrors of allowing it to exist and have done nothing about it, but are more interested in divide and rule politics and thus will never concentrate on the real enemy. Allowing them to fuck us in the arse. daily, weekly, monthly, yearly, eternally. 

 

Nobody For President's picture

THAT is why I am always the best candidate.

Sonder's picture

A general rule of thumb, does most of Washington want it? Yes? Be worried. 

Chhelo's picture

DC is one big clown show. That's where the wall needs built not on the southern border.

silverer's picture

How can it be real tax reform if it passes a vote from both sides?

Money_for_Nothing's picture

5 R Senators care. The rest don't till 2020. Probably won't get anything done by Congress till new 33 Senators are seated in 2019.

moorewasthebestbond's picture

CONgress = perennial approval rating in the teens.

Herdee's picture

No big changes in store for draining the swamp. The Fed and the Income Tax scam still go on...

Dode415's picture

did none of these assholes see the Gary Cohn video where a tiny minority of CEOs said they would invrst in capital and raise wages as a result of the tax plan thereby shooting down the entire rationale for the corporate tax cut ? How stupid are these people ??

ReturnOfDaMac's picture

They are getting paid bigly, and a huge tax cut, are you sure "they" are the stupid ones?

JibjeResearch's picture

BAwahah ahahahha....

They are all AssClowns...

It's the reason I work for myself....and help myself.

rkoen's picture

Nobody's counting on McConnell to make it happen.