Why Pound Volatility Is Here To Stay

Tyler Durden's picture

By Vassilis Karamanis, an FX and rates strategist who writes for Bloomberg.

Brexit Ructions May Mean Sustained Pound Volatility: Macro View

This week’s spike in the volatility of the British pound could prove longer-lasting than the bouts of instability seen so far in 2017.

One-month implied volatility for GBP/USD is on course for the biggest weekly gain since January after Conservative Party lawmakers were seen willing to challenge May’s leadership and talk of a 60 billion-euro Brexit bill resurfaced.

On Wednesday, demand for low-delta options hit a three-month high. EU officials were said to be bracing for failure as both sides seek a breakthrough in negotiations before a crunch meeting next month.

The jump in pound swings is nothing new, though previous episodes were neither prolonged nor sustained. Traders tend to respond in a late fashion to political risks, and adverse market outcomes have been avoided in the end. Volatility has actually been in a steady downtrend since January, as forward guidance by the central bank made sure investors faced as few surprises as possible.

This time, however, BOE Governor Carney has stressed the importance of the divorce talks to monetary policy. And the turmoil in Westminster means the current impasse in negotiations may continue into 2018, making sure sterling remains very sensitive to Brexit headlines.

Investors may need to keep rolling over their long-volatility positions to stay hedged if a no-deal outcome is back in the cards.

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J J Pettigrew's picture

Inflation spike in England......what will the Central Bankers do?

A foreshadowing of what will happen in the US....IMO.

Cry Baby Moe's picture

correct, the world is coming to an end as we know it.

nmewn's picture

OT

Heres some good nuuuz, Charles Manson is barely clinging to life in a Kalifornia hospital, not that he's still alive, its that he's almost dead on his way to hell.

buzzsaw99's picture

the good news is that instead of doing the right thing and executing him on day one the state of california paid to feed, clothe, and house him all these years.  lolololololol

nmewn's picture

The progs should consider just how many starving children this government largesse could have clothed & fed  ;-)

vegas's picture

Dear Vas; You and your buds in the analyst camp have been consistently wrong on rates in the U.K. for over 10 fucking years now ... that's 120 months of talking about rate rises that never come. Now, however, you got your finger on the pulse of some Brit Apparatchik hacks, who now use "Brexit" at every opportunity to cover for more wrong analysis. More volatility? Where? Look at a daily GBPUSD chart, and outside of days when the Brit Pie Holes can't shut up, there isn't any volatility.

 

www.traderzoogold.blogspot.com

medium giraffe's picture

Exactly Vegas, Like a lunatic having a periodic fit and bouncing off the walls of a padded cell.

BritBob's picture
German media has obtained a European Parliament report suggesting a ‘No Deal’ scenario after Brexit would leave a €10.2-billion hole in the European Union’s annual budget.

This would leave Germany, traditionally viewed as the engine of the bloc, having to make up much of the difference, with a rise in its annual contributions of 16 per cent — or roughly €3.8 billion — to maintain spending at current levels (Handelsblatt Global)

 

NoDebt's picture

Yeah, but Bob, what does that have to do with Gibraltar or the Falklands?  I'm confused.

buzzsaw99's picture

the eu wants to fuck you bob, and one way or another they are going to.

buzzsaw99's picture

poor brits, pushed around by their own gubbermint.  spied on, lied to, oppressed by shitty ridiculous laws, taxed, beaten into submission, jobs shipped out, terrorist muzzies shipped in...  along comes the eu to do more of the same, the usa loves to push people around too.  no small wonder guys like britbob are so beleaguered with the weight of the whole world on their shoulders.  if they weren't so pugnacious i'd almost feel sorry for them. 

medium giraffe's picture

Meh, just another Thursday in the United Kraken.

Zero-risk bias's picture

Feeling better now. Thanks!

Panic Mode's picture

Have it lower, so I can export moare.

CHX13's picture

Pound it some moarer.

Guentzburgh's picture

Is it not wonderfull?

Zero-risk bias's picture

As much as I am repelled by the guise of our staunch Brexit man, I have to applaud his call for an investigation into the dark financiers'  donation and the influence it has bought in Brussels

doubledutch's picture

The EUR is soon toast,NOT the GBP .
Without  the ongoing SNB&BOJ intervention the  EUR  was  not terminal ,

but dead.

John C Durham's picture

Yes, the pound is already "mostly downward". This is natural as The City of London's "Bank of England" day of reckoning of Gold ownership and the Gold Yuan International Trade Note, together approach a current moment.