"Foundation For A Rebound?" - Gold Jumps Above Key Technical Level On Heavy Volume

Tyler Durden's picture

The last 3 days have been 'nosiy' in precious metals markets with gold swinging from the best day in 5 months to the worst day in 4 months and now to another high volume surge, breaking the barbarous relic back its 100-day moving-average...

It sems the 100DMA is a key level with heavy volume being used to push gold futures around it.

UBS asks "Is gold establishing a foundation for a rebound?"

Gold longs rebuild while shorts continue to hesitate

Gold is holding reasonably well near the highs of the range established in the past couple of months. A few macro factors have been supportive of late: the pullback in the dollar, a pause in the rise in US nominal and real rates particularly on the long end, consolidation in equities, and political and fiscal uncertainty in the US. Latest political headlines out of Europe are probably helping at the margins, although currency moves could complicate the impact. Stepping back from near-term developments, it's worth noting that the gold market's correction and subsequent consolidation has generally been orderly. The relatively measured unwinding of positions on Comex from the year's highs reached in September is a reflection of this. Latest CFTC data shows that gold net long positions have been tentatively rebuilding over the past couple of weeks; at 22.33moz, market net length looks relatively lean around 60% of the all-time high, albeit still higher than the 12-month average around 17 moz. The recent build in net positioning was mainly due to gains in gross longs. Although gold shorts increased for the first time in four weeks as of November  14, volumes were very modest.

Gold resilience helps position the market for a rebound up ahead

A combination of resilient longs and hesitant shorts has helped gold form a decent base and enabled prices to climb above some support levels, improving the overall technical picture. As we have previously noted, we think gold's resilience is in large part due to lingering uncertainty; although macro risks in general are perceived to be lower, there is an acknowledgment that known unknowns and unknown unknowns continue to lurk. Additionally, some seasonal demand is likely also keep gold supported. Bits and pieces of interest are evident out of China, although there seems to be no urgency to stock up for the Lunar New Year holidays which will occur later in February this time around. Market participants have also indicated a preference to hold off until after the FOMC December meeting is out of the way. We think gold's performance of late and the prospect for further seasonal demand to kick in – albeit with unexceptional volumes – should put gold in a reasonably healthy position for a rebound above $1300 towards the year-end through to early 2018.

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Manipuflation's picture

You are just trading digitz.  I will sit here and drink beer.

BaBaBouy's picture

Bitcoinz Up $350 . . . GOLD Up $7.

What Planet We On Again?

ShorTed's picture

  CBs need to keep shorting gold to maintain the illusion that their 10+tln of newly printed digitz aren't inflationary.

doesn't matter what you think of crypto vs PM, manipulating crypto (at this juncture) doesn't achieve the same goal for the CBs.

 

American Psycho's picture

Get ready boys and girls, I'm about to hit the "SELL" button for the $5BB in notional contracts in my possession. 

syzygysus's picture

Make sure its a market order, because you just want whatever price you can get, no matter what!

ParkAveFlasher's picture

Is that you, Bart Chilton?  Is this me?

Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Make sure its a market order, and you dump it all on the market at once, because you just want the lowest price you can get, no matter what!

FIFY

dark fiber's picture

Are you kidding me?  We have an intervention failure in our hands here.  Tune in next Monday for the big $20B in one minute to be followed by another $30B in thirty seconds extravaganza.  And if this fails we label you all hoarders and terrorists, shut down the markets and force you to hand over your gold at gun point in the interests of "financial stability" and "national security".  

Watch us do it all with a straight face. 

SoDamnMad's picture

Tell the first guy coming in the door to say goodbye to his family when he goes to work. He might be a tad late coming home too.

Consuelo's picture

 

 

+1

 

If the perception of crypto currency as a viable alternative to the perceived value of $UST/$USD was really a threat, they would be trading at a fraction of current daily PM prices.

 

So in a very upside-down sort of way, the artificial 'tight range' PM prices are being held in, proves salutary in nature. 

 

 

Memedada's picture

I sold (for gold - on goldmoney.com) my last Bitcoins last week - just before it hit 7.500,- - for the same reason. You can now  buy "leveraged positions" in most crypto = the "fiat"-price is now totally controlled (like it is for gold and silver) by the "money/fiat masters".

Memedada's picture

Very true. But that mind-trick only works on the uninformed masses.

Hyperinflation have already hit – defined as the exponential growth in the money (read: fiat) supply. The price inflation have also hit – but have only hit things that the people owning the printing press buys (i.e. stocks, art, real estate, luxury items, yacht etc.). The plebs don’t have access to “free credit” and their wages have fallen = no price inflation here (only in the Ponzi schemes they’re forced to participate in – health insurance, “education/indoctrination” etc.).

But yes, gold has to be kept down in order to keep the “faith” in the illusion of progress (or to keep people from realizing they’re being robbed by the ownership class again).

aurum4040's picture

A planet that values a finite security that also has vast technological  and economical utility. What planet are you on?

Gold is NOT an investment. It is in, fact, insurance against inflationary forces, nothing more. If gold is ever worth significantly more then 350 loaves of bread per oz. and then continues holding that value for at least 10 years come talk to me. 

Slomotrainwreck's picture

Now, silver on the other hand, is more than an investment. It's understood to be more rare than Gold (above ground). Given that likely more than 30% of production disappears annually and that number is increasing, I'd think twice about not investing in the "other pm". Soon government minted silver, nickel and copper coins will also be worthy instruments of value. High, Ho Silver!

Ron_Mexico's picture

Don't you know?  Dem gubmint coins is bein' replaced with bitcoins even as we speak.  Get on the blockchain train . . .

HRClinton's picture

We're on the kind of planet, where you made your money with something else than sweat and brawn.

Good time for us early buyers and early miners of BTC to swap some miniscule amounts for certain amounts of AU. 

I have a biz trip coming up to Munich. Plan to swap some BTC for AU (Philharmonic coins), and put them in the SDB* I've had there for some time. 1 BTC buys a lot of AU.

   * Safety Deposit Box (great place for Docs, HD, Cash, AU, gems, extra passport, 9mm... and cold wallet for BTC). Shrewd is as shrewd does.

Not worried about 'gold ban' or worse. That is strictly an American phenomenon. Democratic, to be exact (FDR).

silverer's picture

So do you fiat booing fans have your GoldMoney account opened yet?

tmosley's picture

>Trust us with your gold, goyim

Ink Pusher's picture

still stackin', don't need no stinkin'  third party exchanges or exchangers.

Fiat becomes Bullion with zero issues.

This is it's picture

And it's hammer time!!! 

Ivan de beers's picture

Gold: the higher it goes the harder it will fall.

Stocks: The higher it goes, it keeps going higher.

Bitcoin: Up Up and Away

YUNOSELL's picture

You are correct.... in the short term (until the unsustainable can no longer be sustained)

Turin Turambar's picture

What is your definition of short term?  I've been waiting 7+ years, and this crap can go on a lot longer than anybody thinks.  If you don't believe me, look at Japan.  

Consuelo's picture

 

 

Japan really isn't an apt comparison.   Japan does not have reserve currency status, nor the military might to ensure key oil trading nations abide with Kissinger's clever scheme of recycling that currency, which in turn allows the U.S. to function with the all the trappings of 1st-world dominance.

 

 

Slomotrainwreck's picture

I've been waiting 7+ years

Let's see here. What's 7 years divided by 4,000 years? My guess is that it's a very meaningless number, hardly worthy of comparison. The manipulation will go on in the short term as long as it doesn't.

Ink Pusher's picture

you really should change your avatar to  'Ivan de lusional'.

 

youngman's picture

Its just the guy who stole the 31 million in bitcoins transfering over to the real money

Two-bits's picture

$31m in gold would be significant to Tether to.

HRClinton's picture

AU is fine, but note that it is more "real money" than any other asset or financial instrument, that (a) can act as money and (b) it's market utility is based on faith and tradition.

Just like religious faiths have tradition. Any sect of Judaism, Christianity, Islam, Scientology, etc. None of them are more real than the other. They simply have market utility and market share.

One of the many things that us BTC owners are doing, is converting its non-money essence into another non-money essence (AU, goods, services) directly -- without the official monet intermediary of CB fiat currency. 

What you are seeing in that situation scenario, is the Activity of the PARALLEL Economy. An economy that is separate and independent from the state-sponsored economy of CB Plantations. A Parallel Economy that has libertarian free market rules, that has faith in Price Discovery, that is willing to risk short-term opportunism (that gets quickly fixed in a 'self-healing' process), and that wants nothing to do with the Plantations and their (((Masters))).

Got clarity? Or are you just another clever Nigga on your (((Masters'))) Debt Plantation of USSA?

illuminatus's picture

Yawn. Like a trader at GS quipped, shorting gold is a slam dunk. Oh yeah, the bastards are in complete control.

NoWayJose's picture

Gold has gotten crushed in December for several of the last few years.

BigWillyStyle887's picture

Janet Yellen will not have her manipulation outdone by the likes of a slanty eyed Kuroda. She raises the price of gold just to spite him!

riskon.then.riskoff's picture

I hope this attempt will work!!!

ShorTed's picture

hope is not a strategy, but good luck.

riskon.then.riskoff's picture

my stop loss is there...

But thank you.

Iconoclast421's picture

Gold is looking pretty good here. Dec 15th $23.00 calls, hedged by $22.50 puts. I dont trust precious metals enough to not run with a hedge.

Manipuflation's picture

I couldn't find my radios but I know where my gold is.  There is a Krugrerand in there.  Here is some platinum if anyone cares about that metal anymore.  Her is a British Gordon Brown Soveriegn.  Holy shit, there is a bunch of shit in just this one box that I forgot I bought.

Well. there is more.  And they won't stop brewing beer.  I wonder about this platinum.  What do you do with it?  I played the paladium market and was lucky to get out alive.

Fuck it, I will keep it all.

kavabanga's picture
Gold 1H long: bullish CCIDivergence

Gold dropped from the above 1290 area to below 1275 within the past few hours. 
Currently it looks like if it will bounce off of the resistance line at around 1275. 
There was a bullish CCIDivergence - this would indicate a bullish move too. 
Profit-target is the weekly pivot .

Pliskin's picture

Tyler did you not get the message?

Bitcoin is the new currency!

BITCOIN, BITCOIN, BITCOIN...!

All the way!

I love holding my Bitcoin in my hand, just turning it around and around..that lovely, shiny metal feeling!

I use my Bitcoin to pay for everyting these days...groceries, bills, rent...

Bitcoin is the way forward...if you disagree, you're a fucking moron...

Hold gold?  You're a fucking clown...BITCOIN, BITCOIN, BITCOIN!

Yeh, motherfuckers...Bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin....

I bought a heap of beers toonight...Bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin...!

Yeh, motherfuckahs...Bitcin, bitcoin, bitcoin!

Hold on, I'm  masturbating with my Bitcoin in my hand..!!

Bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin.....!!!

 

 

Yellow_Snow's picture

Haldol Injection STAT in Gold Rm 101 - Mental Breakdown in Progress !!!

Pearson365's picture

Looks like reverse psychology works.  The direct approach will get you banned.  Ahem.

USA USA's picture

Someone call the asylum, another one escaped!!!!!!

HRClinton's picture

Next week I'm going to Bavaria for a week of pre-Christmas revelry.

When I'm there, I will convert 10 BTC to do the following:

1. Buy 60 AU (Philharmoniker) coins.

2. I will put 50 AU coins into my very affordable, discreet and secure Safety Deposit Box at a quiet banking branch, for cold storage. No need to risk boating accidents.

3. The other 10 I will convert into € and stay in a 5 star hotel, have 5 star meals, do some Christmas shopping and pay off my Biz class airline ticket.

All that, for something for which I had the foresight to get for a 2 digit unit price (against vehement and know-it-all ZH 'wizards'). I will laugh, drink and toast to all the nay-sayers, wallowing in their misery.

Smart and shrewd is as smart and shrewd DOES. And dumb-ass Mofo hick is as dumb-ass Mofo hick DOES. 

Got Clarity, peeps?

HRClinton's picture

p.s. We're looking at going to the South Pacific for Spring Break. 

If you like trash Florida or semi-trash Caribbean (full of obnoxious 'Mericans), you can keep your Florida and Caribbean. We're going where the more quiet, and pleasant people with money are going.

We got clarity. And BTC.

jamesmmu's picture

on Thanksgiving week? very big move ahead for stock market next week I bet.