What Gives Cryptocurrencies Their Value

Tyler Durden's picture

Authored by Peter St.Onge via The Mises Institute,

The value of cryptocurrencies like bitcoin, just like any other kind of money, comes fundamentally from what you can do with it. As a follow up to What Backs Bitcoin, I want to dig into that value.

The idea, which comes from Austrian economist Carl Menger, is that just as a shovel’s value comes from its ability to dig, a currency’s value comes from its ability to help you do two things: transactions and savings.

Think of transactions as the money you carry in your wallet or checking account, and savings as the rest of what you have in the bank or buried in the yard. It’s worth mentioning here that that vast majority of money demand is indeed savings, making up 90% or more of all money demand.

The reason this matters is because if we know what transactions cryptocurrencies are good at, we can estimate how much money demand they’ll start pulling from fiat or gold, and therefore how much those cryptos will increase in price.

For transactions, some features that matter are cost and speed of transaction, anonymity, reversibility, counter-party risk, regulatory treatment. For savings demand, those factors are overwhelmed by the specific question of how well the currency keeps its price.

Supply and Demand Determine Price — Always

Price, as always in economics, is simply a matter of demand and supply. When demand is rising faster than supply, the currency will go up in price. And if demand is rising slower than supply, price will go down.

Since bitcoin was born in 2009, it has generally enjoyed demand rising much faster than supply, hence price has soared. While the US dollar, say, has gone down — has “price inflated” — because demand failed to keep up with dollar creation.

Those are the features, now what are the applications: what are people using money for?

When we’re looking at a currency’s price, because we’re looking at total demand we don’t care about the number of transactions rather the total amount transacted.

And here, the vast majority of money moving around in the economy is not goods and services — buying a cup of coffee, or a plane ticket — rather financial movements. Paying salaries, buying and selling stocks or bonds, investments and dividends. These occur mostly by bank transfer, which account for 80% of all money moved in the US. Another 15% goes by check, leaving just 3% for credit or debit cards, and 4% for paper cash.

Bitcoin Still under 0.01% of Global Transactions

A final part of the puzzle, what’s the competition to cryptocurrencies? Most money payments worldwide are, of course, denominated in fiat currency like dollars or yen — about 99% by amount. With the remaining 1% made in gold.

Note that fiat has both physical and electronic forms, such as credit cards and bank transfers. Even gold payments can be made with paper rather than physically moving the gold, including gold-based securities that trade in financial markets (so-called “paper gold”).

Now we’re ready to go through those features for each currency. On cost of transaction, bitcoin’s fees nowadays average about $1, and don’t vary by amount you transfer.

You can send one bitcoin, worth $5,000, or 1,000 bitcoins, worth $5 million, and the fees are still a dollar. In contrast, banks typically charge a percentage of the transaction, which adds up on million-dollar transfers.

Meanwhile, on speed bitcoin is much faster than banks; between 10 minutes and an hour to confirm a transaction, while banks take days.

So bitcoin beats on the most important application of money: financial transfers. The one caveat here is exchange costs. Just as you pay fees and spreads when you exchange your dollars for yen, every time you convert dollars into bitcoin you’ve got to pay fees and spreads.

This means that bitcoin’s low fees only really dominate if both the sender and receiver are keeping the money in bitcoin.

Bitcoin’s Exchange Rate Woes

On the other hand, if you have a bunch of dollars and want to buy a house from somebody who likes to keep dollars in the bank, then you’ll have to convert your dollars into bitcoin, send the bitcoin for a buck, then the other guy converts the bitcoins into dollars again. You saved on the transfer itself, but you had to exchange the money twice.

So, bitcoin as a technology is superior for the main type of transaction by value, but in reality that advantage is eroded if people are keeping their wealth in fiat. This isn’t really a flaw of cryptocurrencies per se, it’s just a standard penalty suffered by any minority currency — having to pay for conversion into the dominant currency.

To finish up on cost and speed, obviously physical cash or physical gold are fantastic on both cost and speed, but only if buyer and seller are touching each other. Given paper cash has only a 4% share today, touchable buyers and sellers is a very small part of demand.

For remote orders, then, bitcoin carries lower fees than credit and debit cards, but again with that double-exchange problem unless both buyer and seller are staying in bitcoin.

Bitcoin’s Potential to Outperform

Next up are some secondary benefits: anonymity, reversibility, counter-party risk, regulatory treatment.

Briefly, bitcoin is nearly anonymous unless the US government cares enough about you to put some serious people on you. In this sense it’s essentially like using cash, but with the advantage you can use it over long distances with those low fees.

In practice, the closest alternative is probably a pre-paid debit card that you buy at 7/11, which can cost several dollars in addition to the merchant fees, and isn’t going to work for large amounts nor overseas.

As for reversibility, the question is whether the buyer can cancel his payment. A problem for online vendors who get scammed by people who buy the product, get it in the mail, cancel the order and keep the goodies.

Credit card companies or Paypal famously always side with the customer, which can suck for the honest vendor getting ripped off online. Bitcoin, again like cash, is irreversible once it’s confirmed — so about 10 minutes to an hour. That’s slower than cash, but faster than Paypal or credit cards where buyers can reverse months later.

Fourth characteristic is counter-party risk; the idea that your bank could go under, taking your money with it. Remember bitcoin was invented in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, where bank failures were common.

Because bitcoin is distributed across many computers and isn’t managed by a central organization, it has no single point of failure. On the other hand, cryptocurrencies do still have potential technical glitches that probably more than make up for that risk.

Regulation: Not If but When

Finally, regulatory treatment. This is where we’ll probably see a lot of change over the next couple years, as governments digest cryptocurrencies like bitcoin.

So far cryptos have enjoyed mostly benign neglect from regulators; tolerated, neither discouraged nor encouraged. On the bright side this has meant little regulatory burdens or fees, although this is changing in places like New York.

On the down-side, this regulatory grey-zone has meant a lot of companies and institutional investors are afraid to use, or even to buy, bitcoin. So increasing regulations could actually boost bitcoin demand, as those regulated users become unafraid to play.

As for what happens in the future, countries are gradually drifting into two camps: broadly enthusiastic (Japan, Dubai, Taiwan, Switzerland), broadly skeptical (China, Korea), with the USA and European Union still lurching between the camps.

Cryptos: For now, Only for Adrenaline Junkies

Now, given how much savings dominate money use, the elephant in the room is would you feel comfortable keeping your life savings in bitcoin.

As we mentioned, the key point here is how its price will hold up, meaning will demand grow faster than supply. While bitcoin has knocked the socks off dollars or even gold, rising 800% in the past year alone, even this soaring growth has come with the major downside that bitcoin also fluctuates a lot — easily up or down 50% in a month.

However, as with any product, service, or medium of exchange, the value of cryptocurrencies will depend on the future choices of countless users and consumers — based on their subjective valuations of the currencies themselves. Those who can successfully guess what will become more valuable in the future will become wealthy. But risks always remain.

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MonetaryApostate's picture

Fake Money, Fake Value, Fake News, Fake History, fake leaders, fake events, fake investments, fake everything.

https://plus.google.com/collection/QorNbB

 

Transaction fees = I win you ShitCoin Holders lose!

 

They'll fork ya up, just believe it!

Gap Admirer's picture

Pump and dumpers looking for quick, easy, money withoiut having to work for it.

And the dudes wanting to move out of their Mom's basements, copying the freely available crypto open source code, generating new sets of electronic 1s and 0s as valuable "money." There are **only** roughly 1400 crypto "currencies" out there now. 

"Money."

IH8OBAMA's picture

AKA Greater Fools.  To determine how long this will go on use the following formula.

(World Population) X (Percent with Internet Access) X (Ratio of Adults to Children) X (Ave. Individual Wealth) X (Percent Who Are Fools) X (Time To Learn of Cryptos) = (Time Until Cryptos Run Out Of Greater Fools)

XBroker1's picture

So, basically it's like a pyramid scheme w/o all the pesky cosmetics or tupperware and that selling stuff thing.

Luc X. Ifer's picture

I call it bullshit. The simple answer is 'Math' but the kind of it takes way more then 4 grades to comprehend so that explains a lot about the idiocy vehiculated here.

BallAndChained's picture

> On cost of transaction, bitcoin’s fees nowadays average about $1

That is a big LIE. Average Bitcon transaction fee is currently $6.

 

blentus's picture

Why don't you eat a dick?

I paid 0.9 EUR last night, for a transaction.

While I would certainly love that transactions are cheaper (and they should be), stop being a retard and spreading pure lies.

If all you do is use exchanges and get raped by them for transaction fees - well, nothing I can do about that. You are neither user nor average.

MonetaryApostate's picture

You aren't seeing the truth though, transaction fees to such a gigantic & purely digital system will basically drain the pool!  For example, lets say 5 milliin transaction happen a day, see the point I am making here?

No matter how much money goes into the pool, the hole drains the pool, requiring it to be constantly filled or it depletes down continuously!

kochevnik's picture

How many houses and yachts you need?

Wrenching Away's picture

But there is an entire ocean of fiat to fill the pool with. Do YOU see the point we are making?

BallAndChained's picture

> the vast majority of money moving around in the economy is not goods and services — buying a cup of coffee, or a plane ticket — rather financial movements

If a currency isn't being used to buy everyday items like a cup of coffee with a $6 transaction fee, then why is it being called a currency at all? (Oh right, it is scammers trying to fool people that they need to buy their scam, fooling people into believing that their scam virtual item is commonly used in real life.)

kochevnik's picture

>why is it being called a currency at all?

Because your school was public

BallAndChained's picture

> Meanwhile, on speed bitcoin is much faster than banks; between 10 minutes and an hour to confirm a transaction

Worst case can be several hours. How many people wait in line for several hours to buy a cup of coffee?

Oh right, people don't actually use Bitcon as a currency, only for speculatioin.

If people actually used Bitcon as a currency, with all the real items that is purchased every day, Bitcon transaction time would drastically slow down to a crawl, days and weeks for a transaction. There would be such a huge backlog of transactions if Bitcon was actually used as a currency that most transactions won't even go through!

And the size of the Blockchain would explode in size from the current over 150 GigaBytes to PetaHumongousGazillion size.

 

Mister Ponzi's picture

Wrong. Settlement for debit card payments is 2-3 days. Do you wait that long in line?

solidus's picture

Wrong, settlement for credit cards can take several months.  I just had a chargeback from Wells Fargo for $5100 that we processed on 9/1 from a scumbag who said it was a fraudulent transaction.  The same Wells Fargo that had a data breach for tens of thousands of their customers which I now have to pay for.  Can't wait for these monstrosities to go the way of the tally sticks.

Final Authority's picture

Maybe that will encourage people to get smart about the nature of the "income' tax and the authority of the IRS.

http://losthorizons.com/index.html

http://losthorizons.com/Newsletter/MythBusters/AffirmationFrom1862IncomeTaxReturn.pdf

 

jmack's picture

you are conflating pyramid scheme with multi-level marketing.  Your comment makes you look very ignorant, like an ape afraid to touch the monolith.

Mister Ponzi's picture

Wrong. There are only maybe two dozens of crypto*currencies* out there. The others are utility tokens not designed as general means of payment.

HRClinton's picture

Are you another shill for TPTB, or are you too dumb to recognize FLIGHT OF CAPITAL (FoC)?

FoC can not be explained by Asset Bubble Theory. But most here are too dumb or psychologically stuck on Casino models, to recognize polar shifts in Monetary Systems.

Go have another 'hit', another 'bong' of Casino Bennies, if it helps keep your world in balance.

When it's all over, you can claim "I saw it coming all along!"  Even though you lacked the balls and brains to catch the early waves and are as dumb, poor and gutless as ever.

LMAO.

HRClinton's picture

p.s. I've become so disgusted by the combination of low-IQ plus hick arrogance, that I'm going to make a list of names.

In a few months I'm going to post that Honor Roll of Losers (the obnoxious combo of dumb + arrogant jerks), to teach you some humility. I can't fix your IQ, but maybe Humble Pie will be good for you as a teaching tool.

jaxville's picture

Better do it soon before you turn out to be the fool.

  You can put me on the list.  I do really good with my investments/savings and I haven't bought a dimes worth of any crypto.  In a year or two when cryptos are just a bad memory please remember what I said today....thanks in advance.

Michigander's picture

I wonder if there would ever be a point that you would consider that you may be wrong. Could you answer that? I really am curious. Let me help...

BTC 40,000 EOY 2108...will you be wrong then?

BTC 80,000 EOY 2020...will you be wrong then?

BTC accepted as money by most nations...will you be wrong then?

2030 Silver still 16.00...will you be wrong then?

I may be wrong. We both dont know. I hedged my bullion and am up 600% with cryptos. I'll be willing to admit I was wrong if that day comes. Question is...will you? Ever?

malek's picture

Are you also one of the bemoaners of fiat dollars and fed control, who however has no problem declaring profits, even "unrealized profits" denominated in fiat to be the ultimate measuring stick for everything?

I mean do you also consider [richest man] Jeff Bezos to be the most intelligent, smartest, wisest, sexiest, most powerful, and most admired person in the world?

Michigander's picture

Answering the question with a question...typical oldbug.

jaxville's picture

  I am wrong because I never profited from a particular trade?  I missed the NASDAQ run up , I missed BreX, I missed Apple .....  I missed a lot of things.

  I am up about 4% for the year on my overall wealth.  It might not sound like a lot but I measure my wealth in ounces of gold.  Dollar (bitcoin) price is just a lot of noise that is little more than a distraction. 

  If you have made some serious dough on bitcoin I hope you are smart enough to turn a good portion of it into something real.  In the meantime , please quit telling me that it is real.  It's no more real than dollars or euros.  Just because some act as though it is real does not make it so.

jmack's picture

crypto's are never going away.  bitcoin or ethereum may fall by the wayside, but this is the method with which the cashless society will be implemented.

Gap Admirer's picture

Agreed.  There are currently roughly 1400 crypro "currencies" with new ones created every day.  Many of the crypto algorithms are open source so anyone can copy them and use them.  Of course they won't go away. As long as someone with a computer in their mom's basement can copy the code, host it, then put out a press release about their new, "valuable," "money."

jmack's picture

http://www.goldscape.net/gold-blog/gold-backed-cryptocurrency/

 

    and from within that article the link to the Royal Mint which is using a CME developed trading platform and block chain to decentralize and digitize gold trading, which is how I see all trading evolving, going from centralized exchanges or data centers to a peer to peer decentralized network with greater transparency and hopefully more fair price discovery, although CME"s involvement does not really bode well for that, seeing as how they collude with the PPT and HFT's generally.

 

http://rmg.royalmint.com/how-rmg-works/

jaxville's picture

  You may be right.  There are some huge issues with the blockchain in general and bitcoin in particular that make it less than ideal for use as a currency.

  For the most part, until the trend toward statism is reversed; a cashless society is the future.

 The believers in bitcoin have become myopic because of the huge gains in price.  They don't see it has gained nothing in value. Sadly, in this gratuitous age, few can differentiate between the two (price vs value)

  All they can do is call me a Luddite or whatever to make up for their inability to rationally examine the limitations of their favorite play.

OverTheHedge's picture

"FoC can not be explained by Asset Bubble Theory"

That sounds disturbingly similar to "This time it's different".

You better put me on your list, too. I will be happy to use your much-vaunted cryptocurrency when i can be (reasonably) confident that it will be worth a rough approxmation of what it was worth yesterday.

As a means of exchange, it is far too volatile; as an investment it is truly weird. Good luck with your punt, i hope you make a bundle.

KFBR392's picture

well unlike our marvellous dollar so far bitc has been remarkably deflationary. what bought you a pizza 5 years ago now buys you a porsche. sounds pretty fucking great to me. yeah ill take door number  two bob!

blentus's picture

Which 'freely available crypt open source code' are they copying, exactly?

Would you mind providing more details?

jmack's picture

  why dont you google, create my own crypto currency....

kochevnik's picture

Study cryptology, discrete maths, group theory, rings, elliptic geometry. Code for 20 years. Then use google. Easy

jmack's picture

Or just go to cryptonotestarter.org.

LSD - Lower Slower Delaware's picture

Wow.  Thanks.  Your own crypro "currency" in 10 minutes.  Step by step.  It obviously takes studying cryptology, discrete maths, group theory, rings, elliptic geometry and coding for 20 years to click through the site in 10 minutes.  LOL!

SuperMegaBlasterCoin will be out right after ZHCoin.

jmack's picture

I thoiught about making a ZH or Durden coin before posting the link, but aparrently you have to buy two servers to host the seed block upon... so a little more startup capital than i want to spend on a weekend thread comment joke.

Gaius Frakkin' Baltar's picture

Speaking of fake everything, there is speculation that tulip mania itself was overhyped.

"Many modern scholars feel that the mania was not as extraordinary as Mackay described and argue that not enough price data are available to prove that a tulip bulb bubble actually occurred."

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania

ebworthen's picture

Isaac Newton went broke over South Sea Co.

Manias and bubbles are emotion based, which is why the "math" argument never works.

https://www.sovereignman.com/finance/how-isaac-newton-went-flat-broke-chasing-a-stock-bubble-13268/

kochevnik's picture

Newton never used search engine or Fakebook. Due diligence

ebworthen's picture

Just another part of the everything bubble.

The IRS is already after the exchanges; get out now while you can kids.

Mister Ponzi's picture

Cryptos are a global phenomenon. The US population comprises 4% of the world population. Why should we remaining 96% care about your IRS?

mickrussom's picture

Most socialist countries, like Sweden, punish tax evasion with longer prison terms than murder and rape. You think the IRS is bad? Goverments that are desparate having nothing to lose by cracking down.

Mister Ponzi's picture

In Europe noone goes to prison for not filling out FBAR forms that don't comprise any taxable events. So, yes, I think the IRS is bad.

A friend of mine moved from his European home country to California. He recently told me the sheer insanity of reports he has to submit to the IRS regarding his bank accounts in his home country including the max amount over the year on each of his accounts. So, yes, I think the IRS is bad.

Where do you live? An American defending "his" IRS? I moved to one of these socialist countries in Europe, Germany, some time ago. Here, I don't have any reporting requirements regarding foreign assets, only of the cashflows I received. A foreign bank account not generating interest income does not have to be reported. Real estate in any other EU country and the rental income in those countries (where it is taxed) does not have to be reported. So, yes, I think the IRS is bad.

The German finance ministry has declared cryptos to be neither a currency nor financial assets. Therefore, the gains on cryptos are tax-free after a holding period of more than one year. Compare this to the US. So, yes, I think the IRS is bad.

peterk's picture

There is only ONE thing that gives CRYPTO their value....  and its NOT   bitcoin  itslef  that im referring to but the  bitcoin technology   , ie  BLOCK CHAIN technology.

So  BLOCK Chain technolony VALUE  =  the COSTS SAVING  of using blockchain  over  the  COSTS BANKS traditionally have in doing  the business of banking.

Thats it.

Bitcoin itself has ZERO VALUE

THe problems with botcoin as a speculative asset is that its not wildly held nor traded. like apple shares. Its LIQUIDITY is ARTIFICIAL in that its based on  high value per unit relative to  share holding/distribution.  This is oppossite to  stocks  on averag that have a  wide shareholding and ow value.

Hence it is a bubble..... a flash in th e pan in time.

Slomotrainwreck's picture

Of course Bitcoin has no value. It's the users that give it value. Without users, it would be as valuable as dust.

I can go to my LCS and hand over a silver monster box and receive a bitcoin for my trouble. On the other hand, I could go to my LCS and use my bitcoin to purchase that same silver monster box.

Bitcoin has no value.