From Millions to Dead URLS - - 2017 versus 1999

Tim Knight from Slope of Hope's picture

From the Slope of Hope blog: On my crowded bookshelf of history texts is one book called Dot Con, which recounts the build-up to, and the bursting of, the Internet bubble. I hadn't read this book in many years, but I pulled it from the shelf yesterday to thumb through it, since we seem to be living in identical times right now (although with a far more pervasive and much, much bigger, bubble). Here's one quote I typed in for your reading pleasure. You're welcome.

"All speculative bubbles go through four stages, each with its own internal logic. The first stage, which is sometimes referred to as the displacement, starts when something changes people's expectations about the future.......a few well-informed souls try to cash in on the displacement by investing in the new vehicle of speculation, but most investors stay on the sidelines.

The early investors make extremely high returns, and this attracts the attention of others. Next comes the boom stage, when prices are rising sharply and skepticism gives way to greed. The sight of easy money being made lures people into the market, which keeps prices rising, which, in turn, attracts more investors. Eventually, those upstanding citizens who haven't' joined in the festivities feel left out. Not just left out. They feel like fools.....

Boom passes into euphoria. Established rules of investing, and often mere common sense, are dispensed with. Prices lose all connection with reality. Investors know this situation can't last forever, and they vie to cash in before the bubble bursts......a larger and larger group of people seeks to become rich without a real understanding of the processes involved. Not surprisingly, swindlers and catchpenny schemes flourish. Finally, inevitably, comes the bust. Sometimes there is clear reason for the break; sometimes, the market implodes of its own accord. Either way, prices plummet, speculators and companies go bankrupt, and the economy heads into recession. A few months later, everybody looks back in amazement, asking, 'How did that happen?'"

Sound like anything that might be going on right now?

Since so many years have passed, some of us have forgotten how insane the Internet bubble was, and how optimistic people were about the future. Take note: "The epic stage of the Internet bubble lasted from October 1998 to April 2000. During that period, more than 300 Internet firms did IPOs." President Clinton declared the national debt would be paid off by the year 2015 (excuse me for just a moment: HA! BWA HA HA! OH MY GOD! BWA HA HA HA HAHHHHH! HAAAAAAA!!!!!!!)

Dot Con also adds this hilarious anecdote "On Sunday, January 30, 2000, Super Bowl XXXIV took place....dotcom companies had sent the cost of a thirty second Super Bowl spot to about $2 million. Seventeen Internet advertisers paid that price, including Computer.com, Epidemic.com, Onmoney.com, Lifeminders.com, kForce.com, and Ourbeginning.com".

OK, have you heard of ANY of those companies? And yet they were so loaded with venture capital funds, they were able to pay for insanely expensive advertising. I decided to look at these URLs, out of curiosity more than anything else. Here's what I found:

Computer.com - a really boring site based in Wyoming with articles about technology.

Onmoney.com - doesn't even load.

Lifeminders.com - a few junk ads. A parked domain.

kForce.com - actually seems to have survived. Still never heard of 'em.

Ourbeginning.com - looks like the domain was taken over by a children's pre-school.

And as for Epidemic.com...........

epidemic

Everything that's going on right now -- from the sky-high equity market, to the President's endless tweeting about record asset values, and the madder-than-a-hatter activity going on with cryptocurrencies, seems to me like a jumping-up-and-down market of bubbles. For safety's sake, every person with a pulse (including Jim Cramer) has offered up the limp phrase, "This will end badly someday", more as a verbal insurance policy than anyone else, but their words say one thing and their actions another.

I believe it's going to end badly someday too. What's different about my opinion is that I think that "day" is extraordinarily close, if not immediate. Want to see the future? Just hop over to epidemic.com and find it.

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surfer433's picture

 

Which will burst first the stock bubble or the bitcoin bubble?

 

Liberaldisdain's picture

Schiff was right in 2008 and right on ZERO since. A broken clock is right at least twice a day.

If he us against bitcoin odds are it goes to a million. 

stacking12321's picture

your statement is clearly false.

peter schiff has been right on many, many things.

some examples:

the federal government has taken on too much debt

the economy is driven by production, not consumption

the productivity and wealth of people are increased when government refrains from interfering in the marketplace

 

i could probably give 100 more examples of things peter schiff has been right about, if i were more familiar with his work.

in the future, refrain from making false statements.

thanks.

Thom Paine's picture

so cryptocoins are like dot.com

I do remember dot.com

Hundreds line up in Hong Kong to buy into tom.com  which was nothing...all did their money with these dot.com

 

SgtShaftoe's picture

Based on the inflows, this could run a while. I really would like to see a healthy correction, but could see this going another 1,000% before it crashes a little bit. Though I hope for a correction. This is getting kinda hyperinflation creepy.

Imagine a world where cash was all shit, and stocks were all shit, and bonds were all worse than shit (kinda like now). Where does one put currency? Gold, silver and palladium are great for long-term but very much remain under the fat ass of the FED, squashed and sharted upon. If I were playing this market. I would take strength in BTC to purchase gold and silver for long-term assets if you think you'll live long enough to enjoy it. Short term, at-risk assets, I consider putting some into bitcoin for now. Bitcoin is probably the sneakiest and most efficient way to transport wealth. It's volatile, but nobody is going to stop you at the border for it.
Sneaky portability of wealth, even with volatility is far better for the individual than staring down a rifle barrel in some shithole while unarmed after the fucker just found 50 gold eagles in your vehicle upholstery. If I ever had to live through that moment, I would choose Bitcoin for the trip.

Thom Paine's picture

The problem is that when it crashes it becomes a pile-on, not a correction.

nmewn's picture

(Ring...Ring)

Me: Hey there buddy-ro, how's final exams going son?

Squire: Have you seen what BitCoin is up to? I'm so glad I got in, there's practically no risk!

Me: Yeah, uh huh. Well, you know its a ponzi right?

Squire: Yeah but I don't think anyones going to jump out right now, its getting a lot of publicity. It just went to...(followed by ten minutes of what a smart guy he is and how many of his friends are in it and me rolling my eyes silently)...and the skies the limit. I'm rich!

Me: Well, technically its just digits on a screen so, you can't be rich until you actually sell it. Sayin.

Squire: I know that. But I'm not selling now. Maybe in a week or so. But I don't know.

Me: So, ummm...how's the exams going? 

Squire: Good. I don't think I'll take the final on philosophy, I'm at a B...

Me (interjecting): Only a B, why not get an A then?

Squire: The B is a sure thing with all the grades I got so far and the way he grades out.

Me: Sounds like you got it all figured out son. What about algebra? 

Squire: I can use the time not taking the philosophy exam to study up on the algebra and...

Me: Or doing something besides studying. Bud I got to go back to work. You're coming home this weekend right?

Squire: Yeah. Thursday or Friday depending on whats going on.

Me: I love you. Be careful. I'll see you when you get home.

Squire: Love you too Dad. Bye.

////////

And so it goes. Some things they just have to learn on their own ;-)

 

Apeon's picture

ALL cripto currencies will be taken over by the GOV-----they are after all "Currencies'-----nothing of intrinsic value.

Rhetorical's picture

They can't kill it anymore it's too big and there are too many Anonymous coins for them to even try. At best they can coop but the people that currently use cryptocurrency tends to be establishment. 

armageddon addahere's picture

So tell us Tim, which hot stocks should we be shorting and when? I'm sure you can name a hundred overpriced stocks - we all can - the big question is when?

negan2's picture

Just FYI: Maybe your question is rhetorical or sarcastic, however, there are trading sites for short interest and many trader platforms offer information on stocks to short. I have scanners for increase in short interest and tend to follow those. For the past week have been shorting XNET and others have been shorting HMNY. Depends if ones broker has shortable shares available. Also, UVXY has so much short interest that Brokers have reduced margin available. Meant to be helpful.

truthalwayswinsout's picture

A new site Stupid.com is all the rage.

aloha_snakbar's picture

I think that cryptos are in the 'euphoria' phase right now. I actually saw an ad, here on ZH, that was blaring "The blockchain is bigger than the internet"....LULZ....

General Fuster Cluck's picture

It could all crash tomorrow. I mean really crash, not ZH "crash". Or it could be at $1,000,000 within 3 years or any thing in between. Nothing like a 10 fold run up in 11 months to get the euphoria started.

One scenario where Bitcoin could be stopped: WAR. It would be hard to justify simply banning Bitcoin under normal circumstances. If WWIII breaks out then I could see the possibility of Bitcoin trading being banned as well restrictions on cryptography, the internet, and even cell phones and towers.

"The blockchain is bigger than the internet". I doubt it. Newer crypto coins may have a scheme that doesn't even have a "blockchain".

vulcanraven's picture

Has anyone ever pondered the theory that Bitcoin was created as a government/central banker stealth wealth transfer scheme? Let all the sheep pile in and willingly throw their money into this shadowy creation so at the moment of their choosing they can declare it illegal in whatever way they decide (terrorism, money laundering, etc.) and then just confiscate and divvy up the spoils amongst each other. 

RhoneGSM's picture

Doom & Gloomer!

Pets.com is coming back, I can feel it!

Abbie Normal's picture

"Pets.com is coming back, I can feel it!"

 

It's already back as Chewy.com -- because buying pet supplies online is so special.

BarkingCat's picture

Most people are still on the sidelines. This is not driven by retail but the FED pumping the pump. Once they suck in the retail suckers they will pull the plug and down it will go.

Kafir Goyim's picture

Why are you on a finance site, if you have no idea about finance?  How exactly would they "pull the plug"?  How exactly are they pumping it?  What do you imagine this pump and then plug pull, would achieve for them?  Details man.  What exactly are you attempting to communicate?

Arnold's picture

It's the restaurant business on 'roids.

Automatic Choke's picture

....but without the risk of e coli in your burrito !!!

 

Iconoclast421's picture

Except the euphoria stage has been going on for 4+ years now. And thats if you believe the true nuttiness didnt start until 2013. I think that is the case. There were parts of 2011 and 2010 that were pretty nutty but they were met with corrections. Since 2013 its been a complete nutterfest of money printing, backed by almost no profit growth at all.

DC Beastie Boy's picture

My favorite justballs.com they fucking imploded in less than six months, go figure.

Actually, my very favorite site was fuckedcompany.com which tracked all of the failed dot com companies, those were the glory years!

PrivetHedge's picture

Loved reading that site.

It's fucked now though :(

http://fuckedcompany.com/

 

Marge N Call's picture

+1 for the fuckedcompany.com reference. That was the bomb. Let's not forget the Daily Cameltoe site. Ah those were the days indeed.

scintillator9's picture

They were the ZH of back then. The net was also so much more fun back then, even with a 56k modem.

Winston Churchill's picture

Boaster, my 2400 baud  full duplex modem was the bees knees long before that.

One up from two tin cans and some string.

PrivetHedge's picture

History repeats, around that time I was wishing I'd bought IBM, Apple and Microsoft shares.

Today I wish I'd bought bitcoin before the pole dancers piled in.

In the meantime there are still cheap  'Plan B' countries to move to so it's not all bad ;)