Trump Trade Kills Gold - Again

Vince Lanci's picture

 The Time for Action in Gold is Near

an update of previous post entitled : 'Gold is in a Bear Leg..with an $1800 Target' | Zero Hedge

The death of hope enables freedom to be responsible for your own actions. Hope is merely the flip side of denial. Be prepared or blame the gods for your misery. 

Originally posted By Soren K. Group on marketslant.com

Yesterday we posted an article noting the Trump Trade’s birth  was responsible in part for the 2016 EOY swoon. We also noted that the tax bill was a likely reignition of that trump trade and warned that gold could succumb to it. We also noted that of yet “gold was hanging tough”. Trump Trade in stocks and Gold (post tax bill momentum on right). Charts here 

Stocks post election and during the tax bill process:

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Gold during the same periods before yesterday:

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Kiss of Death

Yesterday killed that potentially. Markets seemed to discount even more the Tax Bill ratification. 

Our prescience is not a happy event as far as our macro position goes, but it does make all the more real our story last week called “Gold is on a Bear Trend with a $1700 Target”  

So here we are and new things are now on our radar.Blame the Tax bill if you like.  But an actionable  decision will be upon gold traders/ investors soon. 

Here’s where we stand now:

If you have interest in either buying gold or selling what you have the time is now to prepare for the conditions that will trigger your decision to buy, add, sell, or short Gold. We have been saying that the macro buy signal put us into a long position. We have also said repeatedly we are swing-trading from the short side looking to reassess what action to take should certain levels be penetrated on the downside or upside.

Those levels are dynamic but center on the following areas:

1- Fund Finder MA- which has Gold as a long with 6-12 month holding period provided it does not settle below $1263 at end of (now) December (yellow line)

This got us long last month. Chart here 

https://www.marketslant.com/core/assets/vendor/ckeditor/plugins/widget/i...);">?

 

2- VBS- our proprietary momentum signal used primarily for short term and swing trading is setting up for a much longer term volatility expansion should we go below $1193 or above $1336. It alone does not suggest direction on trigger. It does reliably foretell expedited movement is coming soon when triggered.Chart here 

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3- Moor Analytics- Major Trend Lines with which we are not intimate but a respected analyst is, have been pointed out by Michael Moor. His work, independent of ours recently called for a large bull move higher over a 9-12 month period provided certain lows held. 

“The break ( and sustaining) above here projects this upward $172 minimum, $491 (+) maximum—the maximum to be attained likely within 9-12 months.”

This independently corroborated both our macro reason and VBS alert should gold trigger one. Now, after the previous day's sell-off, he gives an early cause for concern in our own systems. Simply put; Michael’s lows did not hold. See chart below. Accurate, not precise as we are drawing from the road

https://www.marketslant.com/core/assets/vendor/ckeditor/plugins/widget/i...);"> ?

 

Currently:

According to Michael, Gold has broken a strong formation that underpinned Weekly support.This he says, puts the Gold bull-call on hold but does not negate it. 

The formation being broken to him indicates a further 19 to 97 dollar drop is on the menu for gold. The only thing that negates this would be strong activity above $1274 on a weekly basis that lead us up to $1300 quickly. This would then reignite the Macro Bull scenario of $1400 to $1800 he reported last month. 

 

Take-Away:

Essentially one can say be short below $1274 on the weekly and flat to long above it depending on your risk, time frame and tolerance for volatility. Or like us, you can stay long macro with an exit on a December settlement below $1282 and continue to day trade from the short side hoping to lessen your macro cost basis while keeping your finger on the pulse come the real event like if a major dip or re-rally would occur. Whether those are buy orsell decisions depends on the individual.

 

To that we’d add:

The VBS says there will be volatility below $1192. We’d like to be in a position to buy physical averaging down if that happens. To do that we’d have to be out (or have hedged) our macro longs long before then. 

Which way gold goes if $1192 is touched is not known, but a decision should be made to buy or sell, or as we may likely do, buy straddles or hedged put spreads the “secret weapon of the Bull”. Just have your levels now and do not hope for divine intervention as the intro quote stated

Original article HERE

Good Luck

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wattie's picture

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Investors from 18 countries around the world have signed up so far...will you?

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Easyp's picture

Charts only work if your assumptions about a rational and unrigged marketplace hold true.  The gold market is rigged.  He might as well sacrifice a chicken and look at its entrails to predict where it will be next week.

I hold gold mining stocks, some physical silver and intend to place a modest bet on a silver ETF before year end.

83_vf_1100_c's picture

  Create charts with jagged lines, draw straight lines across the x axis and throw a paragraph of voodoo economic jargon at it and it all means squat. Thousands of years of history show it to be good insurance for tough times. The monkey hammering has kept it cheap in fiat terms. It is a safe bet. Keep some wealth stashed in metals. Do not go all in, do not expect to get rich. Of course .gov can always change the rules, pull some FDR shit and demand we turn it in. Make it illegal. Like they did with booze and people like the Kennedys got rich running booze. Drugs are illegal, lots of folks still making good money on that. I personally would have no moral qualms going black market with my stash.  If you want to get rich quick, go play with bc or the markets. Just remember to exit early.

IronShield's picture

Always buy what is widely despised. And for now, that's Au and Ag. Once BTC has run its course, precious metals will stand tall again.

And for further evidence, I have yet to see BTC on the balance sheet of any major Central Bank. Oddly, they're still purchasing Au. A funny bunch they are, as if they know something.

ReturnOfDaMac's picture

They DO know something, they know how to print infinite paper fiat, bash the living shit out of metal, and KEEP it there.  Sorry bugs, this will NEVER change.  Even so, my beautiful eagle still weighs 1 oz and I'm keeping it, ya know its for the childrenz...

Silver Savior's picture

I stack gold BECAUSE of Trump.

Code Duello's picture

We do not know who "Vince Lanci" is  but he is obviously not a competent market analyst - nor are his sources.  There is no way that a grounded analyst can make an intermediate-term, bear market secondary, call for a gold move from $1270 to $1800 and then waffle, rescind, or nullify that call within a couple-week period.  "Lanci" is a phoney at best, a charlatan at worst. [Question for "Lanci" or his affiliates:  do you even recognize the term "secondary" as regards market analysis?]

The market relevant facts about gold prices are these:  in 2011 the market topped out a 10-year advance that was contrary to typical commodities price cycles that normally top out in one- or maybe two-production cycles.  Gold prices have been declining for 6 years since that all-time 2011 high.  The thus far 6-year downside time frame implies, if not corroborates, that gold prices are in a significant cyclical decline that shows no "technical" evidence of having terminated let alone reversed nor of being capable of a nearly 50% (absolute value) secondary rally.

Following the December 2015 price low the market has fluctuated - both higher and sideways - in what appears to be a consolidation of its preceding 4 year downleg.  Therefore, the gold market is vulnerable to renewed cyclical selling pressure.  Expect to see gold prices below $1050 between now and Q1 2019 before the next cyclical upswing gets going.

ReturnOfDaMac's picture

Gold is going back to its fair market price of $700 ~ 800/oz, a little more than it costs to mine it.  But I'm in the green and ain't selling my eagle, it still weighs 1 oz.

Dragon HAwk's picture

Think of Gold and Silver, as of What it will buy you when paper money won't buy you anything.

Silver Savior's picture

Yep I have that idea down in stone.

Kefeer's picture

Gold and silver always dip in December - nothing new until the reset takes place and the indication of the progress is in BitCOiN. The reset must be getting nearer, like at the door if the mechanisms are in place to push an implosion.  Whenever these bankers have their block-chain currencies ready to go, then the green light is on...hell breaks loose and perhaps war at the same time.  Credit freezesand lines at food and fuel begins and doesn't end for months.

The NWO economics/banking will be digital currency, thus the push for more debt and cashless society.  It is coming and it was predicted many hundreds of years ago.

I suspect some major world events, life changing, are on the horizon.  When this petro-dollar ship sinks it will be an event with carnage like never seen before.  The large banking institutions and governments are stock piling what?  GOLD

Clock Crasher's picture

Pick a fucking side and stand by your convictions you fucking coward!

Gold is a hedge against hyperinflation.  It is also a lottery ticket. 

It is not something you trade in and out of because in the day to day week to week trading Satan himself sells naked billions of contracts first thing after breakfast. 

Go fuck yourself. 

HedgeJunkie's picture

My $1,100 gold seems fine right there in the safe.  As does my $6 silver.

rex-lacrymarum's picture

Just buy the dips...  no-one is interested in gold right now because the macro-economic fundamentals are currently gold bearish, but the metal is actually stronger than it "should" be, which by itself is a longer term bullish sign (it indicates that the macro backdrop is likely to change dramatically in the not-too-distant future). 

Ban KKiller's picture

I figured out I must be part pirate. Just like the shiny.

OverTheHedge's picture

If you want to make billions of dollars overnight, buy bitcoin. If you want a portion of your wealth outside the system, where it won't be nailed in, it won't be appropriated for the good of the nation, and it won't get smaller and smaller every day, by some bizarre automatic inflation system, own go!d. But I think that the last decade has confirmed that it won't make you rich.

Fonestar was right all along. I think we should have a whip-round and buy him a card, apologising for not believing in him. Oh, and asking for money, obviously.

I bumped into him the other day - https://raykevin.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/millionaire.jpg?w=1200

 

BarkingCat's picture

Yes he was right and before he his final few weeks, he was quite entertaining. 

I should have bought at least 3 bitcoins when he was hyping it after it fell into the $300 range.

Of course, I still maintain that Bitcoin has a intrinsic value of zero, even thought I have bought a little bit of it recently.

Carl Panzram's picture

More than likely we tap the 1350 again and go lower into a new trading range, gold bugs eat dung

meterman's picture

As soon as Gold hits the right number I sell all I have; been waiting for that "right number" for three years. Gold sucks.

Memedada's picture

If you’re in gold or silver for fiat gains you’re an idiot. Gold and silver will carry value from the current Ponzi-scheme (fiat) to the next paradigm. That is to sell your gold/silver (BTC) in the current paradigm you’ve understood nothing (or you’re in a liquidity-problem – only excuse).

fbazzrea's picture

i'm not part of the pep club but if one can get objective in such depressing times, it would be easy to see the obvious contrarian sentiment indicator flashing brightly.

make sure you put that number high enough to make it worth holding 3 years. i hate it when i sell short.

 

fbazzrea's picture

no mention of the billion dollar dumps??

no credibility

new game's picture

fuk it all, gold, trump, bitchez, the dollar, dow bazillion and all the hang ons to a failed state of affairs called merika the land of freeloaders...

not in a good mood...

sorry bitchez...

Seasmoke's picture

Fuck Trump. He has proved to be a friend to Israel and not Gold. 

Memedada's picture

And only the indoctrinated serfs of USA can be surprised that a fiat-billionaire (i.e. a pawn/spawn of the system) could represent any form of positive change. Damn, people are easily fooled.

Pearson365's picture

When people talk about people who are optimistic about gold, they call them ‘gold bugs.’ A bug is an insect. I don’t call equity bugs ‘cockroaches.’ Do you understand? There is already a negative connotation with the expression of ‘gold bug.’ – Marc Faber

fbazzrea's picture

patience, gold bug...

gold like grasshopper. jump far when trouble come. bug go for ride.

be happy. don't worry.

SILVERGEDDON's picture

Gold is real. 5000 years of monetary reality real. That fact never changes.

Only the relationship to fiat funny money changes, so that gold still holds its traditional value relative to bullshit paper. 

Gold, silver, paper, electrons. Which ones are safest for storage of wealth long term ?

Choose wisely.  

Michigander's picture

CHOOSING WISELY MEANS NOT CHOOSING AT ALL. EQUAL PARTS OF ALL 4 ARE REQUIRED.

Bananamerican's picture

"your pumpkin patch is sincere....got it"

BandGap's picture

Buying some shiny this weekend. Christmas sale prices. The three wise men brought Jesus silver and gold.

All these bullshit charts. Fistfull of dollars for a shiny coin is all I'm looking for. 

Fester's picture

Gold will continue to trade between 1200 and 1300.

Sorry no pretty TA charts.

Osmium's picture

The formation being broken to him indicates a further 19 to 97 dollar drop is on the menu for gold. The only thing that negates this would be strong activity above $1274 on a weekly basis that lead us up to $1300 quickly. This would then reignite the Macro Bull scenario of $1400 to $1800 he reported last month. 

 

Gold could go down, but it could go up.  Got it, thanks!

echoes's picture

Gold is for bitchez

Silver Savior's picture

Then I am one big bitch!

zorba THE GREEK's picture

Trump and Kushner can suck all the joo kock they want, gold will prevail as it has for over 5000 years, joo kocksuckers, not so much. If you find this post offensive, then go talk to your fag rabbi about it.

Thom Paine's picture

And how much Greek semen do you swallow everyday, and have you stopped raping your sister?

If you find this post offensive go see your parole officer.

And please, leave the 5 year old boys alone.