Zandi Warns "Job Market Feels Like It Might Overheat" As Manufacturing Jobs Grow At Fastest Pace On Record

Tyler Durden's picture

Following October's better-than-expected surge in ADP employment data (as goods-producing jobs soared), November was expected to see some slowdown, and it did, printing right on expectations at +190k (close to NFP's 195k exp).

“The labor market continues to grow at a solid pace,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute.


“Notably, manufacturing added the most jobs the industry has seen all year. As the labor market continues to tighten and wages increase it will become increasingly difficult for employers to attract and retain skilled talent.”

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said,


“The job market is red hot, with broad-based job gains across industries and company sizes. The only soft spots are in industries being disrupted by technology, brick-and-mortar retailing being the best example. There is a mounting threat that the job market will overheat next year.”   

Of note perhaps is Nov 2017's ADP print is 16% lower than Nov 2016's

The breakdown shows drops only in Information and Construction industries.

Goods producing job growth slowed as services picked up...

But Manufacturing jobs added 40k in November - the most on record...


Finally, we note that ADP's Mark Zandi warned CNBC that "the job market feels like it might overheat."

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     ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 190,000 Jobs in November<br />

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D.T.Barnum's picture

are robots counted as jobs added?

YUNOSELL's picture

I think so, and these robots must not have a very efficient internal cooling system cause this author is saying they are about to overheat

Shocker's picture

I don't think overheating will be a problem. The Job market has been crushed the last 8+ years

Layoff List:


spastic_colon's picture

they must have pulled those numbers out of their zandi...........

Escrava Isaura's picture

Manufacturing growth is probably hurricane related.

Still, employment reports are not worth the paper that is written on it, not matter if the President is liberal or conservative.


Forbes's picture

Has Zandi been right about anything this century?

JRobby's picture

This would be hilarious if it wasn't so sad.

There are qualified people out there that just need to be given an opportunity. The elite have decimated small manufacturing with so many different forces.

luckylongshot's picture

Overheating is not possible with a 21.6% unemployment rate-  21.6% is the actual unemployment rate if you make an apples with apples comparison with historic figures,(Shadowstats). 21.6% unemployment last occurred in the 1930s depression (which is not remembered for its overheated job market- hence the name depression!).

E.F. Mutton's picture

Manufacturing bogus charts and numbers takes mucho mas manpower, evidently.

runswithscissors's picture

They are manufacturing more bullshit numbers.

silverer's picture

Yeah. Time to raise rates back up to 8%. lol

MonetaryApostate's picture

Making America Great Slaves Again.

duo's picture

Look at the Dow.  GE manufactures tax evasion, Citibank and JOM manufacture fraud.  Wells Fargo manufactures human misery.  Phizer manufactures bankruptcy.

Vinividivinci's picture

everything is awesome...until it isn't.

youngman's picture

Lots of jobs opening up with all the sexual harassment cases making them leave or get fired.....I bet there in the millions by now...

bh2's picture

"There is a mounting threat that the job market will overheat next year.”   

A "threat" we should celebrate.

JoseyWalesTheOutlaw's picture

Zandi still suking obama's dik?

JMT's picture

Zandi and most economists are completely non partisan

JoseyWalesTheOutlaw's picture

You sir win the award for Dumb Person of The Day....12-6-2017....Note Zandi was all in for McCain....then he was all aboard the Obama Train.......he is for anybody that will pay him for his bullshet

KansasCrude's picture

Zandi is the biggest FOOL or the biggest TOOL in the forecasting biz.  He is at best a laughable ass kissing clown with the cred of a pathological liar.

silverer's picture

What are they manufacturing? Body bags?

venturen's picture

how about a chart of wage income growth verses stock market growth(Free money express)

slightlyskeptical's picture

Red hot jobs market! Compensation falls!


Someone not telling the truth here.

Snaffew's picture

Dildo factories are in latex rubber and silicone futures pronto!

0valueleft's picture

The only thing they need to manufacture are video cards and cooling fans, haven't you heard, we don't need to work anymore? Run Logan Run!

lester1's picture

End NAFTA and all these treasonous free trade deals!!

juggalo1's picture

Don't worry.  We have a Republican President now.  Cue the next recession.

JMT's picture

This is happening even in most white collar office postions as well even in IT, Finance & Accounting.  All three pay well over $100,000 (in IT & Web  Development someone with over 5 years experience can make $200,000 a year in Boston or NYC) and still most job posts get close to zero applicants or applicants who meet even one or two of the required criteria.  

Even now college grads who barely scrape by with a 2.0 GPA for an average state school are getting multitude of job offers (paying close to $100,000 a year) if they majored in any of the three fields above.. 

Even UPS cannot find any interested applicants which is why drivers are being forced to work 70 hours a week (with all those extra hours paid at time and a half )

adr's picture

$200k in Downtown Boston is essentially living in poverty. When a 800sq ft home in Arlington costs $750k, you aren't living well even with a $200k salary.

Most big companies in Boston pay $80k for a 3-5 year IT pro. Anything within the I-95 ring requires at least $250k a year, inside I-495 requires $150k.  You'll have to go 40 miles west to find something livable and you better be of South Asian or Hispanic descent, because that will be the majority of the people living in your town. 

pitz's picture

And at those salaries, they get hundreds of applicants per job.  So there's a lot of unemployment/underemployment out there.  

pitz's picture

Not even remotely close to being true.  The Boston/NYC IT job market is a dead zone, and most actual positions that exist are given to foreign nationals on H-1B, not to Americans.  They need to import and place 100k+ of them a year after all.  $200k/year, wow, you really are full of shit.  

MK ULTRA Alpha's picture

Just wait, the 20% tax cut and capital expenditure write off for small and mid sized firms will cause an economic boom. 2018 will be over 3% GDP growth. This country hasn't had a 3% GDP growth rate in over 8 years. Small and mid size firms are the growth engine of job creation, not large multinationals.

incharge1976's picture

Forget 3%. Q4 is 3.9%. It may push 5 or 6.

KansasCrude's picture

Do you do standup?  Cause that is the funniest most rediculous crock of shit I have heard in years.....Unemployment by the old metrics is 20%.  There is no growth but inflation.   Why are tax receipts dropping like rock if things are so sweet.   Please  go back to Propaganda 101 and shoot your professor

my new username's picture

94 million unemployed US Citizens...

Throw out the illegals, and then we can start talking about high employment.

MuffDiver69's picture

Let’s not pretend it’s even thirty years ago...a large percentage of that number is unemployable to say the least and one only needs to hire people like I do to see the reality of this..It’s like expecting third generation welfare to up and get married...Best to deal with reality and stop throwing around numbers..

pitz's picture

Through out the H-1Bs and OPTs as well.

MuffDiver69's picture

Nice to read that on manufacturing...Of course back to doom and gloom..Muh Retail..

zippy_uk's picture

I can't wait to get scolded by that red hot pay increase... oh wait...

Disgruntled Goat's picture

So with Labor Participation rates at 1970s lows, we have a job market ready to "overheat" ?

Many wonder about the rise of crypto currencies. Its simply a reaction to assholes like this, spewing any bullshit that will benefit their own book.

Aerows's picture

"As the labor market continues to tighten and wages increase it will become increasingly difficult for employers to attract and retain skilled talent"

Pay people more and treat them like human beings, and you will have NO difficulty attracting and retaining skilled talent.

Of course, this seems like a transparent call to apply for more H1-B Visas.  Or they are simply out of their minds with these estimates.

Probably both.

pitz's picture

The lack of professionalism at many of these employers who are claiming 'shortages' is right over the top.  Most claim they can't find people, yet when good people apply, they hear back nothing.  Its mostly a ruse to curry favour for importing more people from the land of curry.

Donewidit's picture

People are finding other ways to get buy instead of working, imo. 

adr's picture


Well I guess they count all those Gigafactory workers as manufacturing. Musk probably fires and rehires them every month to pad his bullshit. LOOK I CREATE 10K JOBS EVERY MONTH!!!!

Wow. Must be why all I see are abandoned factories everywhere I go and more closing up shop every month. A company called Mexichem built a new building though. It used to be called something different but they aren't even hiding it anymore. From the looks of it the workforce is illegals only.

Davidduke2000's picture

it will overheat alright people are working 4 jobs a day to make a living, you can't get hotter than that.